刘红

LiuGong

　　自2010年4月份新一轮房地产调控措施密集出台以来，房价过快上涨势头总体上得到有效遏制，房地产市场调控取得了明显成效。随着房地产市场价格出现回落，各界对房地产信贷质量的担忧也多了起来。房地产调控对银行业信贷质量会不会造成大的冲击？银行业能够承受房地产价格多大幅度的回落？从近期相关部门公布的一系列统计数据中或许可以找到问题的答案——房地产调控不会对信贷质量造成大的冲击。

Since April 2010 a new round of real estate adjustment measures since dense issued，House prices rise rapidly momentum in general get effectively，The real estate market regulation made outstanding achievements。Along with the real estate market prices eased back，The from all walks of life to the concerns of the credit quality of the real estate than it。Real estate controls for banking credit quality would not cause big impact？Banking to withstand more than real estate prices dropped substantially？From a recent related department released a series of statistics may find the answer to the question--real estate regulation will not a big impact in credit quality。

　　首先，在房地产贷款中，有近70%是购房贷款，购房贷款发生大规模风险暴露的可能性较小。一般而言，只有房产现存价值低于该房产的贷款余额时，才会诱使购房者产生违约动机。近几年房价连续快速上涨，在市场高点以前发放的购房贷款由于房产价值已经大幅提升，基本不会发生违约。近期房价高点出现在2011年6月份，在房价较高的整个2011年发放的购房贷款仅相当于目前购房贷款余额的20%左右，平均贷款余额不足房产价值的60%。即当房价在目前的基础上跌幅超过40%时，才可能出现大范围违约。而房地产调控的目的是抑制投机投资性需求恢复房地产作为居住的民生功能，实施的政策是抑制投机与保护刚需并重，即在鼓励和支持合理购房需求的前提下，实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和住房限购等各项房地产调控政策，房价大幅下跌40%的可能性很小。

first，In real estate loans，Nearly 70% loan buys a house is，Purchase loans massive risk exposure less likely。Generally speaking，Only the property value below the house existing loan balances，Will lure homebuyers produce default motives。In recent years the rapid rise in house prices，In the market before purchase loans by high because of house property value has increased greatly，Basic won't happen to breach of contract。Recent high house prices appear in June 2011，In house prices higher in the whole of 2011 purchase of the loan issue is only purchase at present, about 20% of the outstanding balance of the loans，Average loan balance 60% of insufficient property values。That is when the house prices in the present basis dropped more than 40%，Possible breach of large scope。The purpose of the regulation and real estate investment demand recovery is inhibit the speculative real estate as the people's livelihood of living function，Implementation of the policy is to keep speculative and protection to just pay equal attention to，That encourages and supports the reasonable under the premise of pent-up demand，Implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and housing 限购, and other real estate control policies，House prices dropped 40% the possibility of a small。

　　其次，房地产开发贷款所占的比重较小，对银行业的影响有限。对房地产贷款来说，开发贷款的风险是最令人不放心的。央行7月19日发布的2012年上半年金融机构贷款投向统计报告显示，截至2012年6月末，全部金融机构人民币各项贷款余额59.64万亿元，主要金融机构（含外资）房地产贷款余额11.32万亿元，其中的房地产开发贷款（包括地产开发贷款和房产开发贷款两部分）余额为3.72万亿元，同比增长8.9%。尽管增速比上月末高，但仍比上年末低1.6个百分点。按上面数据计算，房地产开发贷款占房地产全部贷款余额的比重为32.9%，占各项贷款余额的比重不足7%，其中在地价高点时银行发放的开发贷款就更小。

second，Real estate development small in proportion of the loans，Limited impact for the banking industry。Real estate loans to it，Develop the loan risk is the most is not assured。The central bank released on July 19, in the first half of 2012 financial institutions to statistics report shows that loan，By the end of June 2012，All financial institutions all balance of loans 59.64 trillion yuan RMB，Major financial institutions（Include foreign）Real estate loan balance of 11.32 trillion yuan，One of the real estate development loans（Including the development of real estate loans and real estate development loans two parts）Balance is 3.72 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 8.9%。Although growth than high late last month，But still 1.6% lower than ShangNianMo。According to the above data calculation，Real estate development of real estate loans accounted for all of the outstanding balance of the loans for 32.9%，The proportion of all balance of loans accounted for less than 7%，The high price of the development of the bank to extend the loan is smaller。

　　记者在前期采访中得知，开发贷款多为土地抵押贷款，银行在实际操作中，对土地贷款一般按评估价的五至七折进行风险折扣。也就是说，如果土地价格下跌30%以上，抵押贷款才可能出现损失。而目前的实际情况是地价近期已经在反弹。据中国指数研究院新近发布的今年上半年300个城市土地市场交易情报显示，今年上半年，全国300个城市土地平均溢价率为5%，较去年同期减少13个百分点。其中6月份，300个城市土地平均溢价率为10%，仅比去年同期低了1个百分点，创下今年新高。所以，考虑到房地产开发贷款所占的比重和地价的实际走势，即使政府土地储备机构和开发商出现资金链断裂，对银行业造成的影响也很有限。

In an interview with the reporter learned，Development loan to mortgage loan more land，Bank in practice，To the land loans of five to seventy percent according to evaluating price to the risk of discount。That is，If land prices fell more than 30%，Mortgage loan possible losses。And the reality is land price in recent rebound has。According to the Chinese index published by the institute in the first half of this year the urban land market 300 intelligence that，In the first half of this year，The country's 300 city land average premium rate was 5%，13% less than the same period last year。In June of，300 urban land average premium rate is 10%，Only 1% lower than the same period last year，Hit a record high this year。so，Considering the development of real estate loans the proportion of the actual situation of and land price，Even if the government land reserve institutions and developers appear capital chain rupture，The impact of for the banking industry is limited。

　　最后，目前银行业房地产贷款资产质量较好，银行业拨备覆盖率较高，具有较好的风险抵御能力。央行数据显示，今年一季度末，我国银行业拨备覆盖率为165.9%。在此基础上，假设银行业的房地产开发贷款和住房按揭贷款不良率都提升2个百分点，银行业的拨备覆盖率仍会达到136.8%，覆盖率仍然很高。

finally，At present banking real estate loan asset quality is better，Banking dial higher for coverage，Have good ability to resist risk。The central bank data shows，At the end of the first quarter of this year，Provision of China's banking industry coverage is 165.9%。Based on this，The banking industry is that the real estate development loans and housing mortgages loan defective rate will rise by 2%，The banking industry for the dial can still reach 136.8% coverage，Coverage is still too high。

　　按照央行的统计数据，目前银行业房地产贷款资产质量较好。今年一季度末，我国银行业房地产开发贷款不良率是0.9，比年初下降0.1个百分点；住房按揭贷款不良率是0.3%，与年初持平。

According to the statistical data of the central bank，At present banking real estate loan asset quality is better。At the end of the first quarter of this year，In China's banking industry development of real estate loans defective rate is 0.9，Down 0.1% from a year earlier；Housing mortgages loan defective rate is 0.3%，Early and flat。

　　综上，按照目前的调控基调和发展趋势，房地产宏观调控不会对银行信贷质量产生大的影响，银行业能够承受房地产市场一定幅度波动的影响。

in，According to the current regulation of tone and development trend，Real estate macro-control on bank credit quality won't have much influence，Banking to withstand the real estate market certain scope fluctuations。