编者按

Editor's note

　　按照惯用的老龄化社会判断标准，中国在1999年已经步入老龄化社会。而近年来，国内老龄化更呈加速发展趋势。

According to the old ageing society judgment standard，In 1999 China has an ageing society。And in recent years，Domestic more was accelerated aging development trend。

　　2011年末，国务院办公厅发布的《社会养老服务体系建设规划（2011－2015年）》明确提出遵循政府主导、多方参与的原则，加快建设社会养老服务体系。在我国“未富先老”、社会保障制度不完善、历史欠账较多的大背景下，拓展融资来源、创新养老设施建设模式至为关键。

By the end of 2011，Issued by the general office of the state council《Social endowment service system construction planning（2011-2015）》Clearly put follow government leading、The principle of many parties are involved，Speed up the construction of the social endowment service system。In our country“Not rich old before”、The social security system is not perfect、Historical background of greatly more，Expand financing source、Innovation endowment facilities construction mode was very critical。

　　本刊特推出专题对该问题进行集中探讨。

The launch of the problem, special focus is discussed。

　　按照惯用的老龄化社会判断标准60岁及以上人口占总人口的比例达到10%或以上，或65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重达到7%或以上，我国在1999年已经步入老龄化社会。近年来，老龄化加速发展，并日益呈现出高龄化、空巢化趋势。2000-2010年间我国老年人口年均增加3.2%，明显高于同期人口总量的增速0.56%；2010年，我国60岁及以上老年人口达到1.78亿，占世界老年人口总数的1/5多；在老年人口中，80岁及以上的高龄老人占比超过10%。并且，随着“四二一”家庭结构的形成，“三代同堂”式的传统家庭越来越少，这一生活方式的变化导致“空巢”老人比例的增加。随着我国人口老龄化进程的加剧，养老问题日渐突出。老年住宅是满足老年人基本养老需求的必要条件，是解决广大老年人养老问题的基础和关键，老年住宅的发展问题成为摆在我们面前的一大课题。

According to the old ageing society judgment standard 60 years old and above population of the total population of 10% or more，65 or years old and above population of the total population of 7% of the total or above，Our country in 1999 have entered into aging society。In recent years，To accelerate the development of aging，And unfolds more besides、Empty nest trend。2000-2010 years the old people in China with an average annual increase of 3.2%，The same period was higher than the rate of growth of total population 0.56%；2010 years，Our country 60 years old or older and population of 178 million，Of the world population aged more than 1/5 of the total；In the mouth，80 and older accounted for more than 10%-than the old man。and，as“The 421”Family structure formation，“Three generations”Type the traditional family less and less，This way of life changes“Empty nest”The old man of the proportion of the increase。Along with the population aging process, the worse，Endowment problem becomes more and more serious。Older housing is to meet the basic needs of the elderly aged necessary condition，The old people is to solve the foundation and the key of the aged，Older housing development issues before us become a big problem。

　　一、老年住宅的定义及分类

a、The definition and classification of old house

　　我国《住宅建筑规范》中对老年人住宅的定义为“供以老年人为核心的家庭居住使用的专用住宅。老年人住宅以套为单位，普通住宅楼栋中可设置若干套老年人住宅”。老年住宅的分类通常依分类角度的不同而各异，目前对老年住宅尚没有统一的定义及分类标准。比较有代表性的分类，如，国际慈善机构（HTA）1986年制定的老年人居住建筑分类标准，从老年人身体状况与生活自理能力的角度，将老年人居住建筑分为7类；我国建设部和民政部1999年发布的《老年人建筑设计规范》中，从服务对象特征和设施配套的角度，将老年人居住建筑分为老年住宅、老年公寓、老人院、托老所4类。

Our country《Residential building codes》For the old definition of residence in for“For old people as the core of homes use special house。The old house in order to cover for the unit，Ordinary residential building in the house can be set up several sets of the old house”。The classification of the old house usually depends on the classification of different Angle and each different，At present there is no general in older housing the definition and classification standards。The classification of more representative，if，International charity（HTA）Set in 1986 old people building classification standards，Old people from physical condition and the Angle of self-care skill，Will the old residential building is divided into seven categories；The ministry of construction and the ministry of China released in 1999《The old building design standard》in，From the service object characteristics and facilities of the Angle，The old people building into old house、Senile apartment、Nursing home、TuoLaoSuo 4 class。

　　本研究在综合已有研究的基础上，结合对老年住宅发展研究这一主题，从更广义的角度将老年住宅定义为老年人的常住居所，包括普通住宅、适老化设计住宅、老年住区、老年公寓、养老院、老人院等形式（如图1）。

This study in comprehensive on the basis of existing researches，In older housing development research with this topic，From the more general point of view will old house for the old definition of permanent dwelling place，Including average house、Comfortable aging design house、Old residential、Senile apartment、Nursing home、Nursing homes and other forms（As shown in figure 1）。

　　二、我国老年人口家庭特征与老年住宅发展现状

two、The old people in China family characteristics and present situation of the development of the old house

　　（一）空巢老人家庭比例增加，城市老人家庭中超过一半为空巢家庭

（a）Empty nester family increased rates of old man，The old man more than half the city family for empty nest family

　　根据国家老龄工作委员会组织实施的《中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查》，2006年，城市60岁及以上老年人独立居住的比例占49.7%（比2000年增加7.7个百分点），其中独居户占8.3%，夫妻户占41.4%；农村老年人独立居住的占38.3%（比2000年增加0.4个百分点），其中独居户占9.3%，夫妻户占29.0%（见表1）。城市空巢老人家庭增加较快，估计目前超过一半老人家庭为空巢家庭。

According to the national old-age work of the implementation of the commission《China's urban and rural elderly population tracking survey》，2006 years，City people over 60 years old and the proportion of independent living accounted for 49.7%（7.7% higher than in 2000），Living alone accounts for 8.3% of households，Husband and wife households accounted for 41.4%；The rural elderly people live independently accounted for 38.3%（0.4% higher than in 2000），Living alone accounts for 9.3% of households，Husband and wife households accounted for 29.0%（See table 1）。The old man city empty nest family increase quickly，Estimated that more than half the old man family for empty nest family。

　　（二）老年人口收入水平总体偏低，农村老年人尤为明显

（two）Older population overall income level is low，The rural elderly is especially remarkable

　　根据国家老龄委的调查，2006年，我国城市老年人平均年收入为11963元，比同期城镇人均总收入水平低7.5%；农村老年人平均年现金收入为2722元，比同期农村人均纯收入低24%。2006年，城市老年人领取退休金（养老金）的比率为78.0%，平均每月为990元；农村老年人领取退休金（养老金）的比率仅为4.8%，平均每月为684元。

According to the national committee on aging investigation，2006 years，Our country the old city average annual earnings for 11963 yuan，Urban per capita income level than the same period of low 7.5%；The average income in rural elderly people cash for 2722 yuan，The same period than per capita net income of rural low 24%。2006 years，The old city pensions（pension）A ratio of 78.0%，Average monthly for 990 yuan；The rural elderly pensions（pension）Rate is only 4.8%，Average monthly for 684 yuan。

　　（三）老年人住房自有化率较高，城镇老年家庭户住房自有化率超过90%

（three）The old housing has its own turn rate is higher，Old town of housing household has its own rate of more than 90%

　　根据《中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查》研究报告的结果，2006年，老年人现居住的房屋产权属于老年人自己或配偶的比例在城市和农村分别为75.4%和56%，分别比2000年提高7.8个百分点和17.2个百分点。

According to《China's urban and rural elderly population tracking survey》The results of the study，2006 years，The old now lives of building property right to belong to older people themselves or spouse at the ratio of urban and rural areas to 75.4% and 56%, respectively，More than 2000 were increased by 7.8% and 17.2%。

　　从城镇不同年龄组家庭住房产权结构上看（见表2），2010年，户主年龄在60岁以上的老年家庭户的住房自有化率为90.9%，高于其他年龄组家庭的住房自有化水平。其中，房改房是老年家庭户自有住房的主要组成部分。

Different age groups from urban family housing property of the structure（See table 2），2010 years，Householder age 60 years or older in the household of the housing has rate was 90.9%，Higher than other age groups of family has its own housing on level。Among them，Older household room changes room is the main component of homeownership。

　　（四）部分老年人的住房不满足老年住宅设计的基本要求

（four）Part of the old housing not meet the basic requirement of the older housing design

　　虽然老年人的住房自有化水平较高，但居住质量尚有很大改善空间，部分住房不符合老年人体能心态特征对建筑物的安全、卫生、适用等基本要求。如目前城镇老年人中还有一定比例住在六七十年代改装的简易楼，楼房里基本没有安装安全报警系统，楼道比较窄小并且多数没有电梯，楼栋无坡道设计等。

Although the elderly has higher levels of housing，But there is much improved the quality of living space，Part of the housing is not in conformity with the physical characteristics of the old attitude to building security、health、Apply basic requirements, etc。Be like at present in the old town has a certain proportion live in s ~ s refitted JianYiLou，Building where basic not installed security alarm system，More narrow corridor and most no elevator，No ramp storied building design, etc。

　　（五）目前我国老年住宅仍以居家养老型为主

（five）At present our country old house is still to the endowment main type

　　随着我国老龄化的发展，政府也出台一系列政策法规对养老服务业的发展进行引导。2006年，国务院《关于加快发展养老服务业的意见》，要求“按照政策引导、政府扶持、社会兴办、市场推动的原则，逐步建立和完善以居家养老为基础、社区服务为依托、机构养老为补充的服务体系”。2011年民政部发布的《社会养老服务体系建设“十二五”规划》（征求意见稿）中提出社会养老服务体系建设目标，“到2015年，每千名老年人拥有养老床位数达到30张。居家养老和社区养老服务网络基本健全”。

With China's aging population development，The government also issued a series of policies and regulations on endowment the development of service industry of the guide。2006 years，The state council《On speeding up the development of the service industry pension advice》，requirements“According to the policy guidance、Government support、Established social、The principle of market promotion，Gradually establish and perfect to the endowment for the foundation、Community service to rely on、Institution endowment for added service system”。In 2011 the ministry of release《Social endowment service system construction“1025”planning》（Draft version of the）Put forward in social endowment service system construction goal，“By 2015，Per old people have endowment ChuangWeiShu up to 30 copies。Family endowment and community endowment service network basic sound”。

　　目前我国老年住宅仍以居家养老型为主，机构养老型老年住宅比例相对较低。根据民政部统计，截至2010年底，全国各类老年福利机构39904个，床位314.9万张，年末收养老年人242.6万人。按此计算，则2010年我国每千名老人占有养老床位17.7张，远低于民政部 “十二五”规划中提出的每千名老年人拥有养老床位数达到30张的目标。根据国际经验，发展中国家每千名老人占有养老床位数20-30张，发达国家每千名老人占有养老床位数50-70张。

At present our country old house is still to the endowment main type，Institution endowment type old house relatively low proportion。According to the ministry，By the end of 2010，The elderly welfare institutions of all kinds of 39904，3.149 million beds，Adopted at the end of the old 2.426 million people。According to the calculation，The 2010 China's per old man has endowment bed of 17.7，Far below the ministry of “1025”Planning of the proposed per old people have endowment ChuangWeiShu up to 30 a goal。According to international experience，Developing countries per old man has endowment ChuangWeiShu 20-30 copies，Developed countries per old man has endowment ChuangWeiShu 50-70 copies。

　　三、我国老年住宅未来需求规模与结构

three、The country's aging house future needs scale and structure

　　基于老年人口数量以及老年人对不同类型老年住宅的可能选择倾向，我们可以大致估算未来一段时间（2015年和2020年）各类型老年住宅的潜在需求量，思路如图2所示。

Based on the number of older people of different types and the elderly aged housings may choose the tendency，We can roughly estimate future for a period of time（In 2015 and 2020）Each type of old house potential demand，As shown in figure 2 shows ideas。

　　（一）老年人口规模：2015年末和2020年末我国60岁及以上老年人口分别约为2.1亿和2.5亿

（a）Elderly population scale：By the end of 2015 and the end of 2020 in China more than 60 years and older population of about 210 million and 250 million respectively

　　综合联合国、国家人口计生委、全国老龄委以及部分学者对我国未来老龄化发展趋势的预测结果，初步预计，2015年，我国60岁及以上人口比例在15%左右，规模在2.1亿人左右；2020年，我国60岁及以上人口比例在17%左右，规模在2.5亿人左右。

Comprehensive the United Nations、The national population state family planning commission、The national committee on aging and some scholars to China's future development trend of the aging predicted results，prediction，2015 years，Our country 60 years old and above proportion of the population at about 15%，Scale at about 210 million；2020 years，Our country 60 years old and above proportion of the population at about 17%，Scale at about 250 million。

　　（二）机构养老型老年住宅需求预测：2010-2015年间需要新增床位数315万张，2015-2020年间需要新增床位数620万张

（two）Institution endowment type old housing demand forecasting：2010-2015 ChuangWeiShu need to add 3.15 million copies，2015-2020 ChuangWeiShu need to add 6.2 million copies

　　根据民政部统计，截至2010年底，我国各类老年机构共提供床位314.9万张，每千名老人占有养老床位17.7张。假设2015年我国每千名老人占有养老床位数将达到“十二五”规划的30张，2020年可以达到发达国家的水平50张，则2015年和2020年养老床位数的需求量分别为630万张和1250万张，即2010-2015年间需要新增床位数315万张，2015-2020年间需要新增床位数620万张。

According to the ministry，By the end of 2010，China's various types of old age of institutions to provide 3.149 million beds，Per old man has endowment bed of 17.7。Assuming that 2015 per old people in our country have endowment ChuangWeiShu will reach“1025”Planning 30 zhang，2020 can reach the level of developed countries 50 zhang，The 2015 and 2020 endowment ChuangWeiShu demand for 6.3 million-12.5 million copies respectively，That is 2010-2015 ChuangWeiShu need to add 3.15 million copies，2015-2020 ChuangWeiShu need to add 6.2 million copies。

　　无论从我国“未富先老”的现实国情看，还是从国外经验看，在机构养老型老年住宅的供给中，市场化运作方式应占主导。并且，从我国已有政策指向中也可以看出，政府支持民间资本参与养老服务行业。以福利化水平较高的英国为例，机构养老型老年住宅的供给结构中，政府福利性老年住宅在机构养老型老年住宅中所占比例仅为15% 。如果按照这一比例估计，则2010-2015年间需要新增床位数中，约47万张需要政府提供，268万张需要通过市场化运作方式提供；2015-2020年间需要新增床位数中，约93万张需要政府提供，527万张需要通过市场化运作方式提供。

No matter from our country“Not rich old before”See the reality of the situation，Or the experience to look at，In the organization of the residence of old age pension in supply，The market operation mode should be dominant。and，From our current policies also points to to see that，The government support folk capital involving endowment service industries。Right to higher levels of British for example，Institution endowment of the residence of old age in the supply structure，The government welfare aged housings in institution endowment type a proportion of the old house is only 15% 。If this one scale according to estimate，The 2010-2015 ChuangWeiShu need to add，About 470000 zhang need government to provide，2.68 million zhang need through the marketing operation way to provide；2015-2020 ChuangWeiShu need to add，About 930000 zhang need government to provide，5.27 million zhang need through the marketing operation way to provide。

　　（三）居家养老型老年住宅需求预测：2015年末适老化设计老年住宅需求规模约为700万套，2015-2020年间新增适老化设计老年住宅需求规模约为1600万套

（three）Family endowment type old housing demand forecasting：By the end of 2015 comfortable aging aged housings design demand scale is about 7 million sets，2015-2020 years old residential design comfortable aging new demand scale is about 16 million sets

　　根据上述对老年人口和机构养老型老年住宅需求的预测，可以推算，2015年末居家养老型老年人口数约为20370万人，2020年末居家养老型老年人口数约为23750万人。

According to the above for the elderly population and institutions of the demand of the old house endowment forecast，Can be calculated，By the end of 2015 elderly population family endowment of about 203.7 million people，By the end of 2020 elderly population family endowment of about 237.5 million people。

　　从老年人家庭结构来看，估计未来一段时间，有60岁及以上老年人的家庭户中，有1个老人的家庭所占比例约为55%，有2个老人的家庭所占比例约为45%。则2015年末和2020年末，有60岁及以上老年人的家庭户分别约为1.4亿户和1.6亿户。

Old people from family structure and see，Estimated future for a period of time，Have 60 years old and above the elderly in the household，1 the old man's family proportion is about 55%，Have 2 the old man's family proportion is about 45%。The end of 2015 and the end of 2020，Have 60 years old and above the old people's household about 140 million homes respectively and of 160 million。

　　居家养老型老年住宅需求的满足可以通过原有普通住宅适老化改造或在新建小区或老年住区中配建适老化设计住宅等方式解决。从老年人住房消费意愿的选择上来看，普通住宅是居家养老型老年住宅的主要形态。假设2015年末和2020年末分别有5%和10%的老年家庭（以中高收入为主）选择新购置适老化设计老年住宅，则2015年末适老化设计老年住宅需求规模约为700万套，2015-2020年间新增适老化设计老年住宅需求规模约为1600万套。

Older family endowment type of housing demand can meet by the original average house comfortable aging transformation in the new district or old age or residential PeiJian comfortable aging design house in wait for means to solve。Old people from housing consumption on the choice of willingness to see，Average house family endowment is the main form of old house。By the end of 2015 and the end of 2020 that there were respectively 5% and 10% of older family（High income to give priority to）Select new purchase comfortable aging aged housings design，The optimal design of the end of aging 2015 elderly housing demand scale is about 7 million sets，2015-2020 years old residential design comfortable aging new demand scale is about 16 million sets。

　　四、我国老年住宅发展的对策建议

four、The country's aging residential development of countermeasures

　　我国“未富先老”的国情以及老年人口的家庭与居住特征，决定了我国老年住宅的发展不能完全照搬发达国家的模式，需要建立起适合我国国情的老年住宅体系。本研究认为，未来一段时间，我国老年住宅的发展需要循序渐进，采取以普通自住型老年住宅为主、老年公寓和老年住区为辅的老年住房解决模式。

Our country“Not rich old before”The situation of elderly population and family and live features，In our country determines the development of old house can't completely copy the developed countries of the model，Need to establish suitable for China's national conditions of older housing system。This study suggests that，The future for a period of time，The country's aging residential development need it step by step，Take to ordinary self living type aged housings give priority to、An old and old age, supplemented by older housing settlements solve mode。

　　（一）积极引导市场化运作的老年公寓和老年住区的发展

（a）Actively guide the market operation of older age and the development of residential apartment

　　虽然福利性养老机构是解决老年人居住问题不可或缺的一个部分，是对低收入老年人的一种住房保障，但从各国老年住宅的发展来看，选择养老院、托老所、老人中心等福利性养老机构的老年人比例较低，在美国、英国和日本，该比例都在4%左右。多元化的老年住宅需求的满足，还应通过市场化运作来实现。建议政府逐步明晰对老年公寓和老年社区开发建设的支持政策，为老年住宅的市场化运作创造健全的法律法规体系。

Although the welfare pension institutions is to solve the problem of the old people indispensable parts，Is a kind of old people on low income housing safeguard，But from the old house to the development of all countries，Choose a nursing home、TuoLaoSuo、The old man center of the old welfare pension institutions low proportion，In the United States、Britain and Japan，The proportion at about 4%。Older housing demand diversity meet，Still should through the marketing operation to realize。Suggest the government has clear for the elderly and old apartment community development and construction of the policy support，For older housing market operation to create the perfect system of laws and regulations。

　　（二）将现有住宅的适老化改造逐步纳入住房发展规划

（two）Will existing residential comfortable aging transform gradually into the housing development planning

　　虽然未来一段时间，我国老年人口规模和增速较高，老年住宅的潜在需求也较大，但这并非意味着需要新建大规模的老年住宅，对现有房屋进行适老化改造是解决老年人居住问题的重要举措，需要逐步纳入住房发展规划。一方面，我国老年人口的住房自有化率较高，通过对现有住宅进行适老化改造，可以解决相当大比例的老年人的住房问题。另一方面，从老年人对居住方式的选择上看，传统的在宅养老仍将占据主导，这将使对现有住宅进行适老化改造符合很大一部分老年人的需求。

Although the future for a period of time，The country's aging population scale and high growth，Older housing potential demand of bigger also，But this does not mean that need new large-scale old house，For existing houses aging transformation is suitable of old people solve important measures，Need to gradually into the housing development planning。On the one hand，The old people in China's housing has its own turn rate is higher，Through to the existing homes in comfortable aging transformation，Can solve a considerable proportion of the old people's housing problems。On the other hand，Old people from live on the choice of the ways of watching，The traditional in curtilage endowment will still take hold，This will make of existing homes in a large part of aging with fitness transformation to the needs of elderly。

　　（三）鼓励新建住宅中配建一定比例的适老化设计住宅

（three）Encourage new residence PeiJian in a certain percentage of the optimum design of aging house

　　尽管适老化通用住宅的建设成本较高，但这样的住宅免去了后期改造的麻烦，将得到部分中年人群的青睐，也有利于社会成本的节约。而且，通过在新建住宅中配建一定比例的适老化通用住宅，可以满足部分选择与子女毗邻居住的老年人的需要。因此，政府有必要对新建住宅中配建适老化设计住宅的开发项目进行政策支持。

Although comfortable aging general residential construction cost is higher，But the house to avoid the reformation in trouble，Will get the favour of middle-aged people part，Also is helpful for social cost savings。and，In the new residence PeiJian through a certain percentage of the optimal aging general housing，Can meet some choice and children living adjacent to the needs of older people。so，The government is necessary to the new residence PeiJian comfortable aging design residential development project policy support。

　　（四）积极探索构建“以房养老”模式

（four）Actively explore the construction“Retirement with house”mode

　　我国老年人住房自有化率较高，这为“以房养老”提供了较大规模的潜在需求，同时，“以房养老”模式也将提高老年人群的住房支付能力，有助于其居住质量的改善。另外，目前我国城镇老年人中还有一定比例住在六七十年代改装的简易楼，这部分住宅无法满足适老化改造的要求。而“以房养老”模式的发展将为这部分老年人住进符合养老设计要求的住房提供途径，同时也将提高这部分住房的利用效率。因此，政府有必要通过采取一定的鼓励措施，并建立相应的监管机制，使愿意“以房养老”的老人，可以有保障地实现愿望。（作者单位：国家发改委投资研究所）

Our country the old housing has the rate is higher，This is“Retirement with house”Provide a massive potential requirements，At the same time，“Retirement with house”Mode will also improve the elderly housing the ability to pay，Help the living quality improvement。In addition，At present our country town in certain proportion and old people live in the s JianYiLou adapted，This part of the house can't meet the requirements of fitness aging transformation。and“Retirement with house”The development of the model for this part of the old people live in accord with the requirement of design provide housing endowment way，At the same time also will improve the efficiency in the use of this part of the housing。so，The government has taken certain necessary through incentives，And set up a corresponding supervision mechanism，Make willing to“Retirement with house”Old man，Can be guaranteed to achieve the wish。（The author unit：The national development and reform commission investment research institute）

　　文章注释

The article comments

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