中国社会科学院财经战略研究院住房问题研究课题组7月23日发布《中国住房发展报告2012中期》称，上半年市场走势偏离调控目标，主要是宏观政策微调导致的预期调整与市场恐慌引起的。只要下半年政策得当，住房市场调整仍有望趋向价格缓慢下降的“软着陆”，并在此基础上实现健康发展。

The Chinese academy of social sciences financial strategy research institute housing problem research released on 23 July《China's housing development report mid 2012》says，In the first half the market trends, deviation control target，Main is fine-tuning the expected to macro adjustment and markets panicked。As long as the second half policy is properly，The housing market adjustment are still expected to slow down the price of the trend“Soft landing”，And on this basis to achieve a healthy development。

　　“当前正值房地产市场调整的关键期，形势异常严峻和复杂。中国房地产市场调控的空间已经变窄，可操作的手段也已经变少。”中国社会科学院财经战略研究院院长高培勇说。

“The current real estate market comes as the adjustment of the critical period，The situation stiffer and complex。China's real estate market regulation of space has narrowed，Operational means also have less。”The Chinese academy of social sciences financial strategy research institute President GaoPeiYong said。

　　中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞也表示，上半年住房市场回涨的变化给下半年的调控增加了复杂性和难度。

The Chinese academy of social sciences city and competitiveness research center director NiPengFei also said，The housing market in the first half HuiZhang changes in the second half of the year to increase the complexity and difficulty of regulation。

　　报告称，今年上半年尽管房地产供求仍处在调控目标的区间，但住房供给后续不足，房地产存货压力持续增大，需求反弹过速，成交量已经回暖。尽管房地产价格住房价格同比下降符合目标，但环比出现反弹，房价走势偏离调控目标；虽然住房金融总体增长稳定，信贷结构合理，但有资金过快增长和违约积聚的隐忧；土地市场量价齐跌过速，存在未来价格反弹的压力。

The report says，In the first half of this year though real estate supply and demand is still in control target of interval，But housing supply inadequate follow-up，Real estate stock continued pressure increase，Needs fast rebound，Volume have warmed。Although real estate prices housing prices with year-on-year drop goal，But annulus comparing rebounded，House price movements deviation control target；Although the overall growth of housing financial stability，Credit reasonable structure，But has the capital too fast growth and default accumulation of malaises；The land market price volume together by fall，The future price of existing rebound pressure。

　　报告认为，2012上半年住房市场的形势及其变化是住房市场各方相互博弈，尤其是各方与中央调控政策博弈并动态演化的结果。表现在：宏观经济环境变化及宏观政策的调整；金融机构有关住房信贷政策的调整；金融政策的微调及传言影响市场预期改变；地方政府财政压力增大及预期调整；开发企业的资金和库存压力及预期调整；购房者刚性需求释放及预期改变。

Report says，The first half of 2012 the housing market situation and its change is the housing market game between the parties，Especially the parties and the central control policies and the result of the game the dynamic evolution。Performance in：Macro economic environment change and macro policy adjustments；Financial institutions housing credit policy adjustments；Financial policy fine-tuning and influence the market is expected to change that；Local government financial pressure increasing and expected adjustment；The development enterprise's capital and inventory pressure and expected adjustment；The person that buy a house needs and expectations change rigidity release。

　　报告指出，目前在房地产调控政策的具体操作上存在有待完善的问题包括：总体政策有待慎密；行政调控有待完善；预期管理没跟上；信贷政策无差异改变；税制改革试点不积极。

The report points out that，At present in the real estate control policies on the specific operation of existing problems including need to be improved：Overall policy needs to be orderly；Administrative regulation needs to be improved；Expected didn't keep up with the management；There is no difference credit policy change；Tax reform pilot not positive。

　　“下半年住房市场发展也面临着一些风险。主要是两大风险，包括报复性反弹导致调控功亏一篑风险和资金断裂积聚房地产的金融风险。”倪鹏飞认为，由于目前的房地产市场走势不是市场机制内生的，而主要通过行政高压手段实现；也不是理性的市场力量的作用，而主要是由于非理性的预期改变所导致的，基础并不牢固，存在诸多不确定性。

“The second half of the housing market development is also faced with some risk。Main is two big risk，Including retaliatory rebound fell to risk and capital regulation of the financial risk of real estate fracture accumulation。”NiPengFei think，Because of the real estate market trends, not to the market mechanism of endogenous，While the main through the administrative means of high pressure；Also is not rational market forces，And is mainly due to the change in the irrational expectations，Foundation is not strong，There are many uncertainties。

　　倪鹏飞还指出，下半年，中央的房地产调控面临诸多复杂的矛盾，如中央政府的宏观经济调控与房地产调控的操作方向相反。从过去的经验看，宽松的货币政策最终要传导到房地产市场上去，增加了从严调控房地产的难度；地方政府财政吃紧与支出增加；开发商资金断裂与得到资金不降价；需求者买涨不买落，预期变化较快。

NiPengFei also pointed out that，The second half，The central control of real estate faces many complex contradiction，As the central government's macroeconomic regulation and control the operation of real estate in opposite directions。From past experience to see，The loose monetary policy transmission to the real estate market will eventually go up，Increased the difficulty of strict regulation of real estate；Local government finances and expenditures；Developers funds fault and receive money don't reduce the price；Demanders buy or not to buy up fell，Expected change faster。

　　上述课题组建议，下半年争取实现促进宏观经济和住房市场的双双软着陆。在价格上，要扭转一度回涨的趋势，使之重新回到总体回落的方向上来；在销售上，总体基本平稳，保障房和普通商品房销售比例上升；在投资上，总体适度减缓投资，保障房和普通商品房投资稳步快速增加。

The group suggested，For the second half promote macroeconomic and housing market have both a soft landing。In the price，To reverse the trend of the HuiZhang once，To return to the direction of overall back up；In the sale of，Overall basic smooth，Security room and common commodity house sales ratio rose；In terms of investment，General moderate slow investment，Security room and common commodity house investment steadily increase rapidly。

　　据悉，社科院已建议中国银监会牵头并在尽可能短的时间里建构有效的资金细分平台。实施房地产贷款总量规模及增长目标的区间控制。按照一定比例（如房地产商业贷款与保障性住房贷款6:4），实施房地产开发贷款商业贷款的保障性贷款配额制度。

It is reported，The academy has suggested the China banking regulatory commission and lead in the shortest possible time construct effective capital subdivision platform。Exercise real estate mortgages scale and the growth target interval control。In certain proportion（Such as real estate business loans and affordable housing loan 6-4），Implementation of the real estate development loan business loans affordable loans of the quota system。

　　在具体政策上，社科院建议实施差别利率制度。包括取消“商业银行对个人住房贷款利率浮动区间的下限仍为基准利率的0.7倍”的优惠，改为“商业银行对个人住房贷款利率浮动区间的下限为基准利率”，二套房的贷款利率提升至基准利率的1.2%（即利率上浮20%）。实行商业银行房地产开发贷款自动上浮普通行业贷款0.5个百分点的贷款制度，保障性房地产开发贷款下浮一般行业贷款0.5个百分点的制度。

In the specific policy，Cass suggested the difference between interest rate system。Including cancellation“Commercial Banks to individual housing loan interest rates for the lower limit of the range of floating still benchmark interest rate of 0.7”discount，instead“Commercial Banks to individual housing loan interest rate band for the lower limit of benchmark interest rate”，Two suites loan interest rate up to 1.2% of the benchmark interest rate（Interest rate rise 20%）。Implement commercial real estate development bank loans to be automatic floatation loan 0.5% of normal business loan system，Support real estate development loans general industry of the past 0.5% loan system。

　　继续限制二套房贷款，首付比例60%，贷款利率提升至1.3%；停止三套房贷款。继续实施“认房又认贷”的标准审核借款人。取消期房预售制度，创新房地产开发融资渠道。在开发商商品房库存量较大的条件下，适时取消期房预售制度，有利于控制开发商资金链，促进开发商快建快销。

Continue to limit two suites loans，Low ratio of 60%，Lending rates up to 1.3%；Stop three suites loans。Continue to implement“Recognize room and recognition credit”Standard review the borrower。Cancel sales to open to booking system，Innovation of real estate development financing channel。In large inventories of commercial housing developers conditions，Cancellation period room to open to booking system timely，To control the developers capital chain，Promote developers quickly built fast pin。

　　社科院还建议将扩大房地产税试点作为稳定当前预期和深化住房综合配套改革的突破口；制定土地调控的目标，完善土地招拍挂制度。

The academy also suggested that will expand real estate tax pilot as stable currently expected and deepening housing synthetically reform breakthrough；Set the goal of land control，Perfect land action pat hang system。