薛涌

XueChong

　　在本次经济危机开始时，就有评论家指出：真正的复苏，只能从房市开始。看看战后的历史，1973-74年、1981年、1991年和2001年的经济衰退，都是靠房市领先复苏的。很难想像，这次以房市崩解、次贷危机所引发的大衰退，在房市低迷的情况下能够复苏。也怪不得，衰退虽然三年前就基本结束，但这三年来的经济增速年平均仅为2.4%，今年怕是连这个速度也保不住，金融市场又开始谈论第二次衰退了。

In this economic crisis began，Critics have pointed out：The real recovery，Only start from the housing market。Look at the history of the war，1973-74、1981 years、1991 years and 2001 years of economic recession，By housing market leading the recovery。It is hard to imagine，The housing market to destruction、The subprime crisis triggered by the great recession，In a dismal housing market to recover。Also no wonder，Although the recession three years ago basic end，But for the past three years in economic growth is an average of just 2.4%，I'm afraid this year even this speed also won't，Financial market and start talking about the second recession。

　　然而，CNN在2012年5月引述美国住房建设者协会和WellsFargo（富国银行）的报告指出，目前美国市场上的房子，对于中等收入的家庭 （即年收入6.5万美元），有78%是可承受的。所谓可承受的定义，是住房消费（包括房贷、房地产税、住房维修成本等）不超过税前收入的30%。全美的房价，已经从几年前泡沫的顶峰下跌了36%，中等房价目前维持在17万美元上下，还不到中等家庭三年的收入。与此同时，三十年房贷的利率在4%以下（二十多年前曾达到9%）。统计显示，2010年中等房价仅为17.31万美元，房贷利率4.89%，住房消费占中等家庭收入的14.4%。这个比例，在1991年时还是22.7%。更不用说，房贷利率到2012年又进一步下降到了3.7%左右，现在无疑是买房子最便宜的时刻。英国的《经济学人》在2012年7月的报道也指出，根据该刊的房价指数，美国目前住房的价格比公正价格（FairValue）低19%，属于世界上价格最低的房市。这也难怪，在2012年4月，美国的房市经过7个月连续下降后，反弹了1.3%。虽然这仅仅是非常微弱的信息，但是专家们普遍相信，把人们锁在房市之外的因素，已经不再是高房价了。

however，CNN in May 2012 quoting U.S. housing association and WellsFargo builders（Wells Fargo）Report noted that，The United States now is the house on the market，For middle-income families （That is $65000 in annual revenue），78% is affordable。The so-called may withstand the definition，Is the housing consumption（Including mortgages、Real estate tax、Housing maintenance cost, etc）Not more than pre-tax income of 30%。Nationwide house price，From a few years ago has the peak of the bubble fell 36%，House prices remain at present medium $170000 from top to bottom，Less than three years of average household income。At the same time，Thirty years of mortgage interest rates below 4%（Twenty years ago had reached 9%）。Statistics show that，2010 medium house prices to only $173100，Mortgage rates by 4.89%，Housing consumption accounts for 14.4% of the average household income。The proportion，In 1991 or 22.7%。Let alone，Mortgage rates to 2012 years and further dropped to 3.7% or so，Now is undoubtedly the most cheap to buy a house of the moment。British《economist》In the July 2012 the report also said，According to the index of home prices，The United States currently housing price is fair prices（FairValue）Low 19%，Belong to the world of the housing price is the lowest。It is no wonder that，In April 2012，America's housing market, after seven months after continuous decline，A 1.3% rebound。Although this is just a small information，But experts widely believe，The people locked in the housing outside of the factors，No longer is that high prices。

　　既然房子如此便宜，为什么房市依然不景气？一个重要的原因是失业率仍高居不下。另一个原因，则是美国家庭开始存钱。在房市泡沫时代，美国的家庭不仅大肆借贷买房子，而且以不断升值的房子为抵押借钱消费，结果美国家庭的债务攀升到家庭可支配收入的133%。泡沫崩解后，美国家庭普遍勒紧裤腰带，虽然收入大幅下降，但居然还存下些钱来，使家庭债务降到相当于家庭可支配收入114%的水平。

Now that the house so cheap，Why the housing market is still recession？An important reason is the unemployment rate has remained high not。Another reason，Is the American family to save money。In the housing bubble era，American families not only buy a house by lending，And continue to rise for the house mortgage borrowing and spending，The results of the American family debt rise to families 133% of their disposable income。Bubble after the disintegration，American families generally tighten belt，Although income drop significantly，But incredibly still save some money，Make household debt equivalent to the family to disposable income level of 114%。

　　消费者存钱不花，短期内抑制内需，对经济是个沉重打击。但是，从长期看，消费者正在“养气”、积蓄自己的购买力。这种节衣缩食的日子估计还会持续几年，但结果也许是家庭财务的大幅度改善，最终蓄积的购买力会迸发出来。其实，有些“刚性需求”已经无法再拖延下去了。汽车就是一例。这次经济危机，汽车业受打击极大，乃至三大汽车公司成为政府救助的主要目标。但是，汽车在美国是个生活必需品，穷人也离不开。车的寿命都有个年头，经济危机时可以推迟买车，但也只能推迟几年，该换时还得换。果然，现在不管大家怎么勒紧裤腰带也熬不住了。2012年上半年，北美汽车生产猛增了21%。

Consumers money not to spend，The short term inhibit domestic demand，Is a heavy blow to the economy。but，In the long run，Consumers are“raise”、Savings their buying power。This kind of day estimate tightened will continue for years，But the results may be family financial significantly improve，Finally the purchasing power of the accumulation of catching out。In fact，some“Rigid demand”Have not any longer。The car is a case。The economic crisis，Hit by the auto industry is great，And even three big car company to become the main goal of the government aid。but，Cars in the United States is a necessities，Is inseparable from the poor。The life of the car has a year，Economic crisis can put off buying a car，But it can only put off a few years，This change when still have to change。Indeed as expected，Now, no matter what they all tighten belt also bear。In the first half of 2012，North American car production soared 21%。

　　房市泡沫时的豪宅当然属于奢侈品。但是，一般的住房则如汽车一样，属于刚性需求，是省不了的。房市崩解后这四年，美国的住房建设基本处于停工状态。许多旧房因失修或遭遗弃而退出房市，许多（特别是在底特律等萎缩城市的住房）则被系统地摧毁。实际的房子是少了。但是，2012年3月由两党政策中心发布的报告指出，到2050年时，美国人口预计将超过四亿，即比2010年多出9300万人。这相当于现在加州、得州、纽约州、俄亥俄州这几个最大州人口的总和。这些新增人口，将需要至少4300万套住房。

The housing bubble of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage when of course are luxury。but，The general housing, such as car，Belong to the basic need，Is not the province of。After four years in the crumbling housing market，America's housing construction basic in shutdown state。Many old house for repair or been e-motionally abandoned to exit the housing market，many（Especially in Detroit city housing and atrophy）Is systematically destroyed。The actual house is less。but，In March 2012 by two party policy center report released，By 2050，America's population is expected to more than four hundred million，That is more than 2010 more than in 93 million。This is equivalent to California now、Texas、New York、Ohio state's population of this a few biggest combined。These new population，Will need at least 43 million homes。

　　毕竟，人总是要住在房子里的。在经济危机中大家不买房，替代的方式就是租房。像波士顿这样的先进城市，房租已经飙涨，达到或超过历史纪录。这样的趋势持续下去，租购比高到租房太划不来，人们还是要回到房地产市场。这也难怪，在2012年7月，美国住房建设者协会发布的数据显示，住房建设者的信心指数出现了十几年来最大的单月上升，是2007年以来信心最高的时刻。这些造房子的人的信心，不仅反映了住房市场的需求，而且也指示着住房建筑业的重新启动。这是个劳动密集型的行业，一旦反弹就将提供大量的就业岗位。这些就业岗位，很快又会反馈到房市的购买力上。

After all，People always want to live in the house。In the economic crisis we don't buy a house，Alternative way is to rent。Like Boston such advanced city，The rent has been surging，To achieve or exceed the historical record。This trend to continue，The hire purchase than high to rent is too not worthwhile，People still want to go back to the real estate market。It is no wonder that，In July 2012，The United States housing builders association issued figures show，Housing builders confidence index appeared more than ten years the biggest monthly performance increase，Since 2007 the highest confidence moment。These made the faith of the house，Not only reflect the housing market demand，And also an indication of the housing construction to restart。This is a labor-intensive industries，Once the rebound will provide a number of jobs。These jobs，Will soon feedback to the purchasing power of the housing market。

　　（作者为美国萨福克大学副教授）

（The author for American Suffolk university associate professors）