今年要稳增长，不确定性主要表现在两个领域。外部不确定性主要来自欧债危机对中国外贸的冲击。内部的不确定性主要来自房地产市场。目前房地产市场处在一种胶着状态，“上”的风险很大，对此大家是有共识的，短期内“下”得过快会遇到两个问题：一是银行和地方财政会受到大的冲击；二是房地产投资增长可能过快下滑。所以，现在是要在挤压泡沫、防控风险和稳定投资之间找到一个平衡点。

Firm growth this year，Uncertainty is mainly shown in two areas。External uncertainty mainly comes from the debt crisis of the impact of China's foreign trade。The uncertainty of internal mainly from the real estate market。Real estate market at present in a stalemate state，“on”A high risk of，All of this is a consensus，Short term“under”Have to too fast will meet two questions：One is the bank and local governments will be affected by big impact；2 it is real estate investment growth may be too fast to slide。so，Now in the bubble、Risk prevention and stable investment finding the balance between。

　　当前，一种可能算是理想的状态就是坚持当前调控政策不动摇，使一线大城市中部分泡沫明显的地区价格有一定幅度回落。从全国来说，价格小幅回落，基本稳定，坚持两三年，随着居民收入的提高，房价水平将相对下降。也就是说，以时间换空间，谨慎保持“脆弱的平衡”，逐步实现房地产市场的“软着陆”。这是一种可称之为“稳中求降”的策略。另一方面，要抓住这段难得的时机，加快形成房地产市场稳定健康发展的长效机制。关键是完整地恢复住宅作为特定耐用消费品的属性，大幅度减弱其金融属性。这方面的一项基础性工作，就是加快设计、试验房地产保有和交易环节的税收政策，并相机推广。另外，在理论和政策上理顺商品性住房与保障性住房、买房与租房等重要的结构关系。

The current，A may be the ideal state is to stick to the current regulation policy not be moved，Make a line in a big part of the bubble clear regional price have certain scope fell back。From the nation said，Prices back slightly，Basic stability，Insist on two or three years，As the income of the residents improved，House price level will be relative decline。That is，In time to change a space，Careful to keep“Fragile balance”，Gradually realize the real estate market“Soft landing”。This is a kind of can call“Stability and drop”strategy。On the other hand，To catch this period of rare opportunity，Speed up the formation of the stable and healthy development of the real estate market mechanism。The key is to resume full house as a specific durable consumer goods attribute，Greatly to reduce its financial attributes。This aspect of a basic work，Is quickening design、Real estate possessing and trade links test of tax policy，And camera promotion。In addition，In theory and policy to straighten out the commercial housing and affordable housing、To buy a house and the structure of the rent and other important relationship。

　　国务院发展研究中心副主任刘世锦

The state council development research center, deputy director of the LiuShiJin