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一线城市成交量回升显著 三线城市仍低于去年--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-01

  2010年以来,中央持续加强对房地产业的调控,市场需求明显受到抑制。今年以来,随着货币政策预调微调力度不断加大、首套房贷政策松动等政策环境的改善,置业者的观望情绪有所缓解,促进多地成交量回升,但不同城市走势不同,成交量分化更加明显。

Since 2010,The central continue to strengthen the regulation of real estate industry,The market demand significantly under control。Since this year,As monetary policy presetters fine-tuning is increasing continuously、The first set of housing policy loose policies the improvement of the environment,Homebuyers her emotional ease,Promote more volume to bounce back,But different situation different cities,Volume differentiation more apparent。

  

1. 城市分化:一线城市回升显著,仅三线城市仍低于去年 1. The city differentiation:A city rebounded significantly,Only three lines city still lower than last year

一线城市成交量回升显著 三线城市仍低于去年
2008年至今各类城市月均成交量走势 Since 2008 the average monthly volume trends of all kinds of city

一线城市成交量回升显著 三线城市仍低于去年
2010年至今各类城市成交量同比增速变化 Since 2010, the volume of of all kinds of city year-on-year growth rate change

  历史数据显示,一线城市成交量波动幅度始终高于二三线城市。2010年,一线城市受调控影响显著,成交量同比下降43.2%,降幅高于二三线城市27个百分点以上;2011年,各类城市成交量下滑幅度趋缓,但一线城市降幅仍分别高于二三线城市6.8个和14.3个百分点,为23.5%。

Historical data shows,A line, the volume of city range than the three line always city。2010 years,A line by significant influence on city regulation,Volume 43.2% year-on-year drop,By three line than the city more than 27%;2011 years,All kinds of urban volume by slowing down,But a line by city still than the city three lines were 6.8 and 14.3%,23.5%。

  2012年上半年,一线城市成交量回升最为显著,仅三线城市同比下降。今年上半年,一线城市成交量回升最大,同比增长6.9%,在各类城市中增速最高。二线城市成交量同比由去年的下降16.7%转为增长0.1%,虽回升力度不及一线城市,但6月成交量仅比2009年月均水平(86万平方米)低4.0%,其中杭州、厦门等城市成交量回升明显,但也有长沙、天津等地同比降幅继续扩大。三线城市同比仍为下降,且降幅较2011年全年扩大5.3个百分点,为14.5%。

In the first half of 2012,A city is the most significant volume picks up,Only three lines year-on-year drop city。In the first half of this year,A line, the volume of the biggest city back,Year-on-year growth of 6.9%,The highest growth in various cities。Second city volume of last year's 16.7% year-on-year drop to 0.1% growth,Although efforts to back up less line city,But June volume than the average monthly level in 2009 only(860000 square meters)Low 4.0%,Including hangzhou、Xiamen city such as turnover picks up obvious,But there are also changsha、Tianjin etc year-on-year decline continues to expand。Three line up for the city still decline,And a full year 2011 expanding by 5.3%,14.5%。

一线城市成交量回升显著 三线城市仍低于去年
2008-2012年上半年各类城市月成交量累计增幅对比 2008-in the first half of 2012 on turnover growth of city total contrast

  市场形势转暖情况下,一线城市通常率先复苏且成交量回升幅度在各类城市中最大,今年上半年这一差距愈加明显。对比今年6月与年初(1-2月月均)的成交量,各类城市均有不同程度的增长,一线城市增幅最大,增长2.4倍,二、三线城市分别增长1.4倍和1.5倍;与2009年相比,一线城市的增幅明显高于2009年,而二三线城市则相差不大。这一方面源于今年年初各类城市成交量处于近五年最低,另一方面表明今年上半年各类城市成交量的回升力度在近五年同期最为突出。

The market situation warmer cases,A line cities usually take the lead in recovery and volume range of all kinds of cities in back is the largest,In the first half of this year the gap became apparent。This year in early June and contrast(1-2 month are)volume,All kinds of city are different degree of growth,A city gained the most,Increased by 2.4 times,two、Three line cities, which increased by 1.4 times and 1.5 times;Compared with 2009,A line of the city was significantly higher than the growth in 2009,And two, three lines cities were are not significant。On the one hand, from earlier this year, the volume of of all kinds of city in nearly five years minimum,On the other hand shows that in the first half of this year, the volume of of all kinds of city rally in nearly five years in the same period strength most obvious。

  政策环境的差异是各类城市表现分化的主要原因。作为调控的重点对象,一线城市的政策环境比二三线城市更为严厉,受影响程度最大。2010-2011年,一线城市的成交量累计降幅为56.6%,二三线城市分别累计下降29.8%和21.6%,降幅明显小于一线城市。今年以来,随着首套房贷优惠、降息等结构性放松政策的推出,一线城市置业者的观望情绪渐趋缓解,在刚性需求持续释放的基础上,积压已久的改善性需求也积极入市,推动一线城市成交量明显回升。二线城市受影响程度小于一线城市,且其内部分化也较为明显,今年回升力度总体不及一线城市。而三线城市政策环境最为宽松,过去两年受影响程度最小,加之市场多靠本地需求支撑,今年以来市场需求增长乏力,成交量持续低迷。

The policy environment the difference is all kinds of urban performance of the main causes of the differentiation。As the major object of regulation,A line of urban policy environment than two three city more seriously,Affected most degree。2010-2011,A line of accumulative total volume by city for 56.6%,Two, three lines city cumulative decreased by 29.8% and 21.6% respectively,Obviously less than a line by city。Since this year,Along with the set of mortgage discount、Such as the structural relax policy rate cut out,A city of buyers looking mood gradually ease,In the rigid demand for the basis of release,The improvement of the backlog already a long time of demand also actively market,Promote a city volume rebounded somewhat。Second city affected degree less than a city,And the internal differentiation also more obvious,This year the overall strength back less line city。And three line urban policy environment most comfortable,In the past two years affected is minimized,Together with the market by local needs more support,This year since the market demand growth weakness,Remain low volume。

  

2. 不同城市表现:二线城市规模突出,杭州、南京、厦门回升最为显著明显 2. Different city performance:Second city scale outstanding,hangzhou、nanjing、Xiamen is the most significant rise significantly

一线城市成交量回升显著 三线城市仍低于去年
2. 不同城市表现:二线城市规模突出,杭州、南京、厦门回升最为显著明显 2. Different city performance:Second city scale outstanding,hangzhou、nanjing、Xiamen is the most significant rise significantly

  一线城市较去年均有增长,北京更为显著;二线城市重庆、武汉、沈阳规模突出,杭州、南京等东部二线城市比过去两年增长显著。2009年以来,重庆 、武汉、沈阳、北京、上海、天津、长沙、南京、广州、佛山的月均成交量始终位列20个代表城市中的前十名。今年上半年前十名的月均成交量均超过49万平方米,较2011年和2010年的入围标准分别提高4.5%和8.7%,但比2009年低39.9%。其中,一线城市北京和上海由于回升较大,月均分别成交71万平方米和64万平方米。二线城市重庆近四年来规模始终明显高于其他城市,今年上半年月均成交165万平方米,是第二、三名(武汉和沈阳)的1.8倍左右。杭州、南京、厦门等东部二线城市,由于过去两年受调控影响大,市场较为低迷,基数较低导致今年增长显著。三线城市佛山表现突出,近年来月均成交量始终超过一线城市深圳、二线城市厦门、杭州等。

A city is all have growth last year,Beijing more significant;Second city chongqing、wuhan、Shenyang scale outstanding,hangzhou、Nanjing east second city than in the past two years significant growth。Since 2009,chongqing 、wuhan、shenyang、Beijing、Shanghai、tianjin、changsha、nanjing、guangzhou、The average monthly turnover was always in foshan city in the top 10 to 20 representatives。In the first half of this year the average monthly volume of the top 10 are more than 490000 square meters,A 2011 and 2010 at the standard is increased by 4.5% and 8.7% respectively,But 39.9% lower than in 2009。Among them,A line of Beijing and Shanghai city because large rise,The average monthly respectively 710000 square meters and 640000 square meters clinch a deal。Second city chongqing nearly four years to scale is much higher than in other cities always,In the first half of this year the average monthly clinch a deal the 1.65 million square meters,Is the second、three(Wuhan and shenyang)1.8 times or so。hangzhou、nanjing、Xiamen eastern such as second city,Because of the past two years to influence by the regulation,Market downturn relatively,A low base lead to significant growth this year。Three line in foshan city prominence,In recent years, the average monthly turnover always more than a line in shenzhen、Second city xiamen、Hangzhou, etc。

  尽管部分城市成交量有明显的增长,但很大一部分原因是这些城市受调控影响程度较大,成交量基数较低,这一特征在一线和部分东部二线城市表现更为明显。北京、上海今年月均成交量较去年分别增长21.2%和5.4%,但与2010年相比仍下降18.2%和22.4%,广州、深圳表现亦如此。二线城市南京、杭州等虽然与2010年相比保持增长,但其2010-2011年成交量累计降幅均高于60%,受调控影响程度甚至超过一线城市。而其他二线城市如天津,过去两年累计降幅为33.3%,受影响程度明显小于杭州、南京,今年以来成交量虽然低位回升,但仍处于近年较低水平。可见,不同二线城市由于过去两年受调控影响程度不同,今年的表现也较为分化。三线城市唐山成交量与2010年相比增幅接近70%,但不同于杭州、南京,今年月均成交量与2009年相比也增长1.1倍。

Although parts of the city have significant increase volume,But a big part of the reason is the city by regulation influence is bigger,Volume a low base,This feature in a line and parts of eastern second city performance is more obvious。Beijing、Shanghai this year than last year the average monthly volume up by 21.2% and 5.4% respectively,But compared with 2010 still decreased by 18.2% and 22.4%,guangzhou、Shenzhen performance, too。Second city of nanjing、Hangzhou, although compared with 2010 keep growth,But the 2010-2011 were higher than 60% by volume total,Control effect by more than a line even city。And the other two lines such as tianjin city,In the past two years accumulative total decreased by 33.3%,Affected significantly less than hangzhou、nanjing,Since this year though low volume back,But in recent years is still in the lower level。visible,Different second city because of the past two years by the regulation effects of different level,This year's were also more differentiation。Three line city of tangshan volume compared with 2010 growth of close to 70%,But different in hangzhou、nanjing,The average monthly volume this year compared with 2009 also increased by 1.1 times。



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