宋尧

SongYao

　　形势发生逆转，似乎只用了半个月时间。

Reverse situation，Seems to be for only half an months。

　　如果时间回到5月上旬，恐怕不会有多少人相信，政府会突然收紧已在实质上逐步放松的房地产调控。不过到了6月，很多人已在预估这种可能性。

If time back to early may，I'm afraid not many people believe that，The government will suddenly tightening has set up a file in the real estate gradually relaxed in control。But in the June，Many people already in the estimated the possibility。

　　但7月份事情真的发生时，还是超出了许多人的预期。7月19日，国土资源部、住房城乡建设部联合下发紧急通知，要求坚持房地产市场调控不放松。明确要求各地“不得擅自调整放松要求。已放松的，要立即纠正”。

But in July when things really happened，Or beyond the many people expected。July 19,，Land and resources、Housing rural construction jointly issued an emergency notice，Demands to the real estate market regulation not to relax。Explicitly requires all“Without authorization and adjust relax requirements。Already relaxed，Should immediately correct”。

　　政策层面的风声鹤唳，源自市场层面的强势反弹。没有多少人能预测到，房价指数连续9个月下滑，成交量在4月份还同比下跌的楼市会在6月强势反弹，上演成交量和房价双双回暖。“还没完，还有别的部委也会发通知。”上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭称，他相信这只是一个开始，国土资源部措辞严厉的通知并没有太多新内容，但其他部委随时可能再祭杀招。

Policy FengShengHeLi level，The bounce back from the market level。Not many people can predict，House price index fell for nine months，In April, the volume of year-on-year fall in the housing market will also bounced back in June，Volume and house prices on both buoyancy。“yet，There are other ministries will also send notice。”Shanghai enjoysmart real estate, vice President of the institute YangGongXu says，He believes that this is just a start，The ministry of land and resources strongly worded notice and without too much new content，But other ministries may at any time again offering kill recruit。

　　房地产调控，已进入中盘调整时间。

Real estate regulation，Has entered into the central disk adjust time。

　　最坏的时刻 The worst of times

　　时间重回2012年年初，人们或许会为当时市场的极度悲观感到惊讶。

Time to return to the beginning of 2012，It may be at the time of the market for extreme pessimism surprised。

　　2012年1月份，楼市成交量持续下滑。根据中国指数研究院的监测数据，其监测的40个城市中，逾八成城市成交面积环比下降，13城市跌幅超过50%。其中跌幅最大的天津高达78.78%。平均跌幅也达到了11.62%的水平。

In January 2012，Property market turnover continue to slide。According to the monitoring data of Chinese index academy，Its monitoring of the 40 cities，More than eighty percent month-on-month drop of urban clinch a deal，13 city dropped more than 50%。One of the biggest drop of tianjin as high as 78.78%。The average fall is 11.62% level。

　　开发商的悲观被酝酿到极点，在2011年第四季度万科集团总裁郁亮抛出“过冬论”之后，业内也似乎慢慢达成共识——2012年将是一个严冬。“再多的资金储备也架不住这样的市场萧条。”一位开发商对本报记者如此表示。尽管经历了2008年灾难性的局面之后，多数大型房地产企业均对此轮调控做了充足准备，比如减少负债率，放缓扩张速度，并积极开拓新的资金渠道，但市场的寒意依旧出乎他们的意料。从各公司新定的年度销售目标来看，开发商收缩过冬的迹象将在2012年更为明显。

Developers to be pessimistic brewing poles，In the fourth quarter of 2011 China vanke Co. President YuLiang thrown out“Of winter”after，The industry also seems to be a consensus-slowly in 2012 will be a hard winter。“No amount of capital reserves JiaBuZhu such market depression。”A developer to our correspondent said。Although the experience in 2008 after a disastrous situation，Most large real estate enterprise all this round the regulation prepared，Such as reduce leverage，Slow speed expansion，And actively explore new capital channel，But the market is still not their expected chill。From the company's new set the annual sales target and see，The developers of the winter contraction in 2012 signs is more obvious。

　　例如，世贸房地产2012年销售目标定位307亿，而2011年则为360亿，绿城集团更是将2011年550亿的销售目标直接下调到2012年的400亿。

For example，The wto in 2012 real estate sales target location 30.7 billion，And in 2011 is 36 billion，Green city group is will 2011 55 billion sales target cut directly to 2012 in 40 billion。

　　地方政府则一遍遍地用自己的方式强化楼市的悲观。进入2月份，芜湖、宁波等地试图放松调控力度的做法均被紧急叫停，地方政府试图缓解楼市危机的政策空间也已被极度压缩。这几乎是楼市最糟糕的时候。“看下半年”成为房地产开发商的共识，尤其在“坚持房地产调控不动摇”的舆论背景下。没有人对2012年的楼市表示乐观。为了减少流动资金的消耗，开发商有两个选择——放缓项目施工进展，大幅缩减开工面积，以及减少在土地市场上的投入。

The local government is again and again in your own way of strengthening property market pessimism。Into February，wuhu、Ningbo, and try to relax the practice of control power are an emergency stop，The local government tried to ease the housing crisis policy space has been extremely compressed。This is almost the worst of the housing market。“Watch the second half of”Real estate developers consensus，Especially in“Insist on real estate regulation not be moved”Under the background of public opinion。No one in 2012 to market of optimistic。In order to reduce the consumption of liquidity，Developers have two options-slow project construction progress，Greatly reduced commenced area，And reduce the investment in the land market。

　　住宅新开工面积零增长便是市场选择的结果。来自中国指数研究院的数据，2012年头两个月，住宅新开工面积仅为1.5亿平方米，与2011年同期相比并未增长。而在1月份，全国300城市土地出让金收入仅为895.9亿元，同比减少67%。10个重点城市的住宅用地在这个月竟然均以底价成交。

Residential new commenced area zero growth is the result of marketing choice。The data from China index academy，2012 year two months，New start residential area to be 150 million square metre only，Compared with the same period in 2011 did not increase。And in January，The country's 300 city land leasing revenue only for 89.59 billion yuan，Reduce 67% year-on-year。10 key city housing land in this month unexpectedly are to clinch a deal price。

　　没人知道开发商的选择会带来对宏观经济如此强大的压力。那时，不少学者还认为保障房项目的逐步开工将弥补掉开发商投资下滑带来的损失。

No one knows the choice of developers to bring macroeconomic so strong pressure。then，Many scholars think security room project beginning gradually will make up off developers investment losses from decline。

　　转折点 Turning point

　　开发商投资的持续减少开始带来宏观经济上的压力，固定资产投资增速也似乎并未因保障房的陆续开工得到明显提升，地方财政却因土地市场的冷清低迷而备受考验。没人愿意看到楼市在此刻下滑，但它还是发生了。

Developers of investment continues to decline began to bring the macro economic pressure，Fixed asset investment growth also did not seem to ensure room for the commencement obviously in ascension，The local finance however because of land market of cold and cheerless recession is the test。No one would like to see property market decline in this moment，But it was still to come。

　　4月份，在经历春节缓慢但顽强的一段攀升后，楼市成交涨势突然戛然而止。在中国指数研究院发布的报告中，其所监测的40个城市中，有八成成交量出现了环比下跌，跌幅最大的上海与重庆都超过了20%。

April，After the Spring Festival slowly but tough a climb，Property market rise suddenly clinch a deal to an abrupt end。In China in a report published index academy，The monitoring of the 40 cities，Eighty percent month-on-month drop volume appeared，The biggest drop in Shanghai and chongqing is more than 20%。

　　与之同行的，则是表现更为糟糕的宏观经济。整个4月份，工业的增加值同比仅增长9.3%。按照工业增长速度和GDP增长速度的多年规律和经验，两者之间通常相差3到5个百分点。这令决策层开始担忧。“如果5、6月工业增加值没有一个明显增长的话，二季度的GDP就有可能低于7%。”全国政协经济委员会副主任郑新立称。

Went with the，Is even worse macroeconomic performance。The April，The added value of the industrial only 9.3% year-on-year growth。According to industrial growth speed and GDP growth speed laws and experience for many years，Both between 3 to 5% are usually。This makes management team began to worry。“If 5、June industrial added value without a clear word of growth，The second quarter GDP may lower than 7%。”The Chinese people's political consultative conference, deputy director of the economic ZhengXinLi says。

　　此外，4月份社会用电量同比增长回落到3.7%，较3月下滑3.3个百分点，较去年4月下滑7.5个百分点。当月进出口同比增长分别下滑至4.9%和0.3%，远低于3月8.9%和5.3%的数据。这些数据都使得经济增长急需寻找新的拉动点。“出口对经济的拉动实质上已转变为负增长。”郑新立认为，这意味着增长三驾马车中的另两驾——投资和消费需要贡献额外的增长，才能维持经济的总体增速。

In addition，April social power consumption growth fell to 3.7% year-on-year，A 3 month fell 3.3%，April is down 7.5% over the last year。Monthly import and export year-on-year growth to 4.9% and 0.3% respectively，March is far lower than the 8.9% and 5.3% of the data。These data were that economic growth are looking for new LaDongDian。“Exports to pull the economy has changed substantially for negative growth。”ZhengXinLi think，This means that the growth of the three carriages in the other two-the investment and consumption needs to contribute additional growth，To maintain the overall economic growth。

　　地方政府和银行业已经开始有所反应。就在当月，借助“鼓励刚需”的名目对楼市政策“微调”的城市已超过20个，住建部并未对此叫停，而针对房地产行业的银行信贷也开始逐步放松。4月份惨淡的楼市数据让不少人开始担忧——会不会房地产已经被“一闷棍打死”了。

The local government and the banking industry has started to respond。The same month，with“Encourage just need to”The names of housing policy“fine-tuning”The city has more than 20，Live JianBu did not stop this，And according to the real estate industry bank credit also begins to step to relax。April is pale in the housing market data to many people began to worry about--will not real estate has been“A SAP killed”the。

　　5月中旬，中国国务院总理温家宝在湖南召开了六省经济形势座谈会，随后又召开了国务院常务会议，“稳增长”被放回宏观调控的重要位置。此后，“房地产调控放松”的舆论开始流传。

mid-may，Chinese premier wen jiabao in hunan province held six economic situation forum，Then held the standing committee of state council，“Steady growth”Returned to macroeconomic regulation and control of an important position。Since then，“Real estate regulation to relax”Public opinion began to spread。

　　几乎是同时，楼市急速反弹，5月第一周成交量还在持续下滑，月底已完成逆转。中国指数研究院监测的40个城市中，成交量下滑的城市仅为5个。十大重点城市中除重庆持平外，成交量均环比上涨。

Is almost at the same time，Property market rebounded sharply，May the first week in volume also continue to slide，Has completed the end of reversal。China index academy of 40 cities in monitoring，Volume of just 5 city down。The ten major city in addition to the chongqing flat，Volume are annulus comparing to rise。

　　进入6月份，楼市转折性的时候似乎正式来临。标志性的事件是，房价指数自2011年9月之后首次环比上涨。

Into June，When the housing market seems to be officially coming worth noting。Landmark event is，House price index since September 2011 for the first time after November to rise。

　　政策两难 Policy dilemmas

　　没人希望楼市由活跃转向衰落，但无法承受的是，伴随着楼市活跃而到来的房价暴涨。

No one wants to market by active to decline，But cannot afford it，With the arrival of active and housing prices soaring。

　　前不久北京万柳地块出让造就的“准地王”，或许触发了房地产调控新一轮调整的基因。就在这宗地块公开出让前几天，温家宝总理在江苏调研时仍强调，要毫不动摇继续调控绝不能让房价反弹，而类似的表述在过去一个月中被相关部委轮番表述。

Not long ago Beijing wanliu plot transfer made“Must you”，Perhaps triggered a new round of real estate regulation adjustment genes。The Pope plot for a few days before the public，Prime minister wen jiabao in jiangsu research is emphasized，To stand still continue to control can never let house prices rebound，A similar statement in the past month be related ministries take turns to express。

　　7月11日的万柳地块出让，尽管采取了“限总价，竞保障房面积”的拍卖方式，但7.8万平米的土地依旧拍出了26.3亿的高价，扣除掉保障房面积之后，实际楼面价格高达4.27万元每平方米。在市场的预估中，这片土地未来项目的售价肯定超过6万元每平方米。随之而来的，则将是周边二手房价格的一路飙升。

July 11, the wanliu plot，Although taken“Limit price，Competing security room area”Auction of，But 7.8 square meters of land is still made a 2.63 billion of high prices，Deduct off security after housing area，The actual floor price is as high as 42700 yuan of every square metre。The estimated in the market，The land price of future projects must be more than 60000 yuan of every square metre。With the，It will be the price of secondhand the room around soared。

　　不过，北京市国土资源局随后公布了一份报告称，上半年北京住宅平均楼面价4528元／平方米，较去年下半年大降15%，当前北京市土地整体成交价出现回归，基本回到2009年前期水平，宏观调控成效明显。

but，Beijing municipal bureau of land and resources and then released a report said，Beijing housing in the first half of the average floor price 4528 yuan/square metre，A big drop 15% in the latter half of last year，The current Beijing land whole clinch a deal valence appears regression，Basic back to early 2009 level，Macroeconomic regulation has obvious。

　　各方面都在担忧调控加码，不过有专家认为，房地产调控政策二次调整的空间不大。

In all aspects control pyramid concerns，But some experts think the，Real estate control policies of the secondary adjusting the space is not large。

　　杨红旭预测，宏观经济仍存太多变数，在二季度的GDP增幅跌至7.8%之后，如何维持经济环境稳定显然是一个更为重要的问题。“稳增长”的压力之下，楼市调控很难再次大刀阔斧。

YangGongXu forecast，The macro economy is still store too many variables，In the second quarter GDP growth after fall to 7.8%，How to maintain stable economic environment is obviously a more important issue。“Steady growth”Under the pressure of，Property market regulation difficult to cut again。

　　目前，银行依旧在加大对房地产市场的支持。央行刚刚发布的报告显示，多数房地产类信贷均在二季度末开始回升。至6月末，地产开发贷款余额8037亿元，同比增长0.8%，增速比上季度末高8.8个百分点。房产开发贷款余额2.92万亿元，同比增长11.3%，增速比上季度末高0.3个百分点。个人购房贷款余额7.49万亿元，同比增长11%，增速比上季度末低1.1个百分点。

At present，The bank is still in the increase of the support of the real estate market。The central bank has just released report shows，Most of the credit are both in the real estate at the end of the second quarter began to pick up。To 6 month，Real estate development loan balance of 803.7 billion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 0.8%，Growth is 8.8% higher than the quarter。Real estate development loan balance of 2.92 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 11.3%，Growth is 0.3% higher than the quarter。Personal purchase loan balance of 7.49 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 11%，Growth 1.1% lower than the quarter。

　　对于房地产行业的一个美好设想是，在成交量回升的情况下，房价下跌或至少保持平稳；同时在销售市场不景气的情况下，房地产投资还能稳步增加。但要达成如此矛盾的目标，同时又保持房地产市场的活力，的确是考验政策水平的一件难事。

The real estate industry for a good idea is，The rise in volume，Falling house prices or at least maintain stable；At the same time in the sales market recession，Real estate investment can also increased steadily。But to reach the goal of such contradictions，At the same time, keep the vitality of the real estate market，Indeed is the test of a policy level difficult。