在中国二季度GDP增速3年来又跌破8%后，持续低迷的房地产市场能否再度引领经济上涨引发了公众的广泛关注，呼唤楼市调控政策放松的声音不绝于耳。近日，有学者甚至公开表示“放松调控信心”,“地产才是大救星”。对此，大多数专家认为，房地产调控政策绝不能放松，要谨防房地产借机要挟中国经济。只有转变经济增长方式、调整经济结构才是中国经济长期可持续发展的正确道路，仍然走依靠房地产带动经济增长的老路无疑是饮鸩止渴。

In the second quarter, China's GDP growth for three years and after fell below 8%，For the weak housing market can lead economic rise again caused wide public concern，Call property market regulation policy relaxed voice heard。recently，Some scholars even openly“Relax regulation confidence”,“Real estate is the savior”。this，Most experts think，Real estate control policies can never relax，Real estate of China's economic hostage taking。Only to transform the pattern of economic growth、The adjustment of economic structure for long-term economic sustainable development is the correct road，Still go on real estate promoting economic growth is undoubtedly the remedy is worse than the old。

　　增速下滑楼市调控影响大

Growth fell property market regulation effect

　　今年以来，伴随着经济增速的放缓，我国房地产投资增速也明显回落。根据国家统计局公布的数据显示，上半年房地产开发投资增长16.6%，比上年同期回落16.3个百分点。事实上，从2000年起到今年4月，房地产开发投资增速始终保持高于全国固定资产投资增速，但今年二季度房地产对于国民经济的拉动作用明显减弱，其中6月落后全国固定资产投资增速3.8个百分点，比上月扩大2.2个百分点。

Since this year，With economic growth slowdown，China's real estate investment rate of apparent。According to the national bureau of statistics show，Real estate development investment grew by 16.6% in the first half，A drop of 16.3% from the same period a year earlier。In fact，From 2000 till April this year，Investment in real estate development growth always stay above the national fixed asset investment growth，But in the second quarter of this year the real estate on the national economy pull function significantly weakened，Six months behind the fixed asset investment growth of 3.8%，Expanded by 2.2% than last month。

　　在我国经济快速发展的过程中，房地产行业对GDP的贡献一直较高，交通银行(601328,股吧)金融研究中心的报告显示，近10年房地产投资占GDP的比重保持在5.5%左右，而且和其它产业有较高的关联性。北京大学房地产金融中心主任冯科表示，一个产业如果达到GDP份额5%以上，就是支柱性产业。而地产占整个GDP的份额已经接近10%，因此房地产市场的调控不可避免地导致GDP的下滑，这是正常现象。

In China's rapid economic development in the process，The real estate industry to GDP of the has been high，Traffic bank(601328,Shares it)Financial research center report，Nearly 10 years real estate investment in GDP keep at about 5.5%，And other industries are higher and the relevance。Beijing university, director of the center for real estate finance FengKe said，An industry to GDP if more than 5% share，Is the backbone industry。While property of the share of GDP is already close to 10%，So the real estate market regulation inevitably leads to the GDP of the downturn，This is normal phenomenon。

　　国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运认为，房地产调控是今年经济增长速度下滑的重要原因，从房地产投资增速回落的幅度以及与房地产销售有关的家具和家电销售情况来看，增速都回落得比较明显，不可避免地在一定程度上影响短期经济增长。

The national bureau of statistics spokesman filled to transport think，Real estate regulation is the pace of economic growth this year the important reason for the decline，The real estate investment growth dropped from the amplitude and real estate sales and the furniture and electrical appliances sale situation，Growth fell back all have more apparent，Inevitably in the impact on the short-term economic growth。

　　调控既不加码也未放松

Regulation is neither pyramid is not relax

　　在当前经济增速放缓的背景下，房地产调控已经处于关键时期。近日，一则关于“珠海楼市取消限购令限价令”的消息在网络上广泛流传。虽然珠海相关部门已进行否认，但也不难看出，目前有些限购城市已经按捺不住给楼市调控松绑的冲动。

In the current economic slowdown in the background，Real estate regulation has been in a critical period。recently，A newspaper story about“Zhuhai property market to cancel 限购 limit orders”News circulated widely on the Internet。Although zhuhai related departments have denied，But it is easy to see，There is some 限购 cities has been unbearable to market regulation of easing impulse。

　　住房城乡建设部新闻发言人近日强调，将继续坚持房地产市场调控政策不动摇，对于地方出台放松抑制不合理购房政策的，将及时予以制止或纠正。对此，中国房地产学会副会长陈国强表示，住建部此次表态释放出一个重要信号，即重申楼市调控政策“既不加码，也未放松”的基调。而且限购和限贷政策“红线”被再次明确，将成为地方政府微调政策重要约束条款。

Housing rural construction news spokesman recently stressed，Will continue to adhere to the real estate market adjustment and control policies, not be moved，For local issued relax control unreasonable purchase of policy，Will be duly to stop or correct。this，China real estate society vice-chairman Chen guoqiang said，Live JianBu this comment release a important signal，Namely reiterated that the property market adjustment and control policies“Neither pyramid，Also not relax”Fundamental key。And 限购 and limit credit policy“Red line”Are again clear，The local government will become an important constraint fine-tuning policy terms。

　　对于当前市场出现“只有给楼市松绑才能保增长”的观点，中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌表示，这种以房地产拖累经济为由要求放松调控政策，正是我们所担心的。现在房地产调控的压力来自于人们将楼市与GDP捆绑的思维，忽视了调控对抑制房价过快上涨所取得的成效。

For the current market appear“Only to the property market to relax the growth”Point of view，China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang said，This real estate drag on the economy requirements relax regulation policies，What we have to worry about。Now the pressure comes from real estate regulation in people with GDP of the property market will be bound thinking，Ignore the regulation to control the house price rising rapidly the effect。

　　放松调控后果很严重

Relax regulation the consequences will be severe

　　专家普遍认为，房地产调控政策松绑从短期看可能会对经济产生刺激作用，但从长期来看，这无异于是饮鸩止渴，将使受到挤压的房地产泡沫沉渣泛起，危害中国经济的健康发展。

Experts generally agree，Real estate control policy easing in the short term may be on economic has the stimulation，But in the long run，The remedy is worse than the this just like so，By extrusion will make the real estate bubble on sediment，The healthy development of China's economic harm。

　　“当前房地产宏观调控若戛然而止会让宏观调控陷入一种危险境地。”中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员易宪容表示，在当前经济转型的关键时刻，政府首先必须冲破GDP增长拜物教意识的禁锢，彻底舍弃通过住房市场投机炒作短期内推高GDP增长的幻想，在挤出巨大房地产泡沫同时，建立起稳定经济增长扩大内需的长效机制。这种长效机制最为核心的内容，就是让住房价格回归到合理水平。

“The current real estate macro regulation will make an abrupt end if macroeconomic regulation and control into a dangerous situation。”The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of financial YiXianRong said，In the current economic transformation of the key moment，The government first must break through the GDP growth fetishism confined consciousness，Completely give up through the housing market speculating in the short term push the high GDP growth of fantasy，In the extrusion huge real estate bubble and at the same time，Establishing a stable economic growth in the long-term mechanism of the expansion of domestic demand。The long-term mechanism of the most key content，Is to make the housing price return to a reasonable level。

　　“如果再次启动刺激性的财政政策，只会导致更多的过剩产能，而银根的放松则会再度推高刚刚控制下来的通货膨胀。”亚太城市房地产研究院院长谢逸枫表示，大规模的经济刺激计划不会再出台，今年下半年中央以“稳”字当头，维持“既有政策”作为楼市调控思路。房地产调控政策微调应该在去投资投机化的同时，保刚需与改善置业人群的合理购买需求，达到拉动销售成交，推动投资增长的目的。

“If the restart excitant fiscal policy，Will only lead to more excess capacity，And the relaxation of the monetary policy will be pushed higher again just control down inflation。”The city real estate research institute President XieYiFeng said，The scale of the economic stimulus plan won't come，Central to the second half of this year“stability”Character overhead，maintain“Both policy”As the housing market regulation ideas。Real estate control policies should be to investment in fine-tuning the speculation at the same time，The just and to the improvement of the reasonable people buy real estate needs，To lift sales clinch a deal，The purpose of promoting investment growth。