海淀万柳地块拍卖7月10日落下帷幕，民企中赫置地以楼面价约4.42万元/平方米刷新单价纪录。 CFP供图

Haidian wanliu land auction July 10 an sunset，Corporation in trading floor price about to hertha 44200 yuan/square metre refresh unit price record。 CFP for figure

　　半年过去了，北京经济到底怎么样？下半年应该怎么办？本报记者分别对住房、交通、消费、旅游等多个行业进行了深入观察。

Half a year passed，Beijing economic exactly？The second half to should do？Our reporter for housing respectively、traffic、consumption、Tourism and etc further observation。

　房价突然 House prices suddenly

　　“蹿起来了” “Comes up”

　　红五月和红六月的高成交，带动北京楼市上半年成交总量超过10万套，让2012年楼市“最不好的日子”过去了，也锁定了2012年上半年“前冷后暖”的格局。

Red in May and June of red high clinch a deal，Beijing property market clinch a deal amount in the first half driven more than 100000 sets，Let 2012 market“The most bad day”In the past the，Also on the first half of 2012“Former cold warm after”pattern。

　　“童小姐，团结湖又出了一套61平方米、南北通透的小三居，业主报价200万元，价钱有商量。”童小姐接到中介的这个电话后，有些无语了。怎么办？165万元的时候都没买，现在200万元了，还买吗？

“Miss child，TuanJieHu and a 61 square meters、The north-south all-transparent XiaoSanJu，Owner offer 2 million yuan，Price have to discuss。”Child of this telephone miss received intermediary，Some unknown。do？1.65 million yuan of time all didn't buy it，Now 2 million yuan，Still buy it？

　　从现在反过头来看，165万元应该是市场的底了，那个价格出现在今年春节后。为了结婚，童小姐从老家回来就开始看房。

From now the head and see，1.65 million yuan should be market bottom，The price appears in this year after the Spring Festival。In order to get married，Children from their hometown back began to miss systems。

　　最初，她看了通州的京贸国际城、华业东方玫瑰，大兴的龙湖时代天街，房山的长阳半岛等不少项目。那时，这些项目中的老项目价格还绷着，只有新开盘的龙湖时代天街价格比较便宜，均价12000元。但童小姐觉得太远了，还是决定在离上班地点较近的团结湖区域买。她看中的61平方米小三居业主报价170万元，砍砍价165万元能成交。可当时，童小姐刚开始看房，加上市场低迷，她没有敢贸然出手。

first，She looked at the Beijing tongzhou city international trade、Huaye Oriental rose，The Times's lake standing，The peninsula, changyang county fang shan magmatic many projects。then，The project of the older project price also sober，Only the opening of the new lake standing era price is cheaper，Average 12000 yuan。But miss children feel too far away，Decide to close from work place TuanJieHu area to buy。Her eyes of 61 square meters XiaoSanJu owner offer 1.7 million yuan，Cut cut price 1.65 million yuan can clinch a deal。But at that time，Miss children started the apartment now，Plus market downturn，She didn't dare to cut his shots。

　　3月、4月份，童小姐关注的一些郊区项目开始打折了，比如房山的徜徉集、大兴的鸿坤理想城等，都降了一两千元，而团结湖的房价没有降，还是170万元左右。这更加坚定了童小姐在该区域买房的决心：城里的房子价格坚挺。

march、April，Miss some of the children's attention suburban project started is on sale，For example the fang shan magmatic garden sets、Daxing's hongkun ideal city, etc，All down 12000 yuan，And TuanJieHu house prices did not drop，Or 1.7 million yuan。The more determined the child in the area of miss to buy a house：The city house prices held firm。

　　童小姐从中介那里了解到，团结湖在上世纪80年代大规模建了一批房，61平方米这种小三居有几千套，童小姐打算好好挑挑，挑个价格、位置、楼层都合适的。

Children from there to know miss intermediary，In the 1980 s TuanJieHu mass built a number of rooms，61 square meters this XiaoSanJu thousands of sets，Miss children are going to have a good pick，Pick a price、position、Floor was appropriate。

　　可是，市场没有给童小姐这个机会。5月份，这种户型的房子，业主报价涨到了175万元，没有商量。童小姐觉得价格高了，没买。

but，The market did not miss this opportunity to children。In may，The family house，Owner offer up to 1.75 million，Not to discuss。Miss children think the price is too high，Didn't buy。

　　6月份，这种户型涨到了180万元，而且还有涨的趋势，童小姐有点扛不住了，决定出手，但由于一些合同细节没谈拢，还是没买成。

June，The family up to 1.8 million，And the trend of rise，Miss a little boy to carry not to live，Decided to make moves，But because some contract details not talk about approach，Or didn't buy into。

　　之后，业主报价一路上涨，185万元、190万元、195万元，甚至有报出200万元的。一个月之间，完成了20万元的价格升级。价格离童小姐的心理价位越来越远。

after，Owner offer up all the way，$1.85 million、$1.9 million、$1.95 million，Even a quote us $2 million。A month between，Completed the 200000 yuan price to upgrade。The price of the child from miss psychological price far away。

　　降息成为“市场拐点” Rate cuts become“Market inflection point”

　　“价格的实际上涨，是从5月份开始的，感觉一下子就蹿起来了。”童小姐感慨道。5月份，出于宏观经济的考虑，央行开始降低存款准备金率。6月8日，央行又宣布3年来首次降息。7月5日，又第二次降息。

“The actual rise in price，From started in May，Feel suddenly comes up。”Miss child regrets way。In may，Out of macro economic consideration，The central bank began to reduce the deposit reserve rate。June 8,，The central bank also announced three years to cut interest rates for the first time。On July 5,，And the second to cut interest rates。

　　北京中原地产市场研究部总监张大伟说：“5月份，是楼市的一个转折点，调控政策的松动，特别是信贷政策的调整，使得购房者支付能力增加，购房者对房价继续下探的期待降低，入市的积极性增加，观望降低。”

Beijing central plains real estate market research department director ZhangDaWei said：“In may，The housing market is a turning point，Adjustment and control policies loose，Especially credit policy adjustments，Make the person that buy a house the ability to pay increase，The person that buy a house to house prices continue to dip below expectations lower，The enthusiasm of the entry increased，Wait-and-see reduce。”

　　另外，房价相比调控之前的确有所下探，特别是4月前，房价处于最近两年的最低点，购房者抄底心态明显。亚豪机构副总经理任启鑫介绍，从市场表现也可以看出，继前期部分个案项目深度折扣之后，自3月份以来整体市场开始进入全面深度折扣周期。尤其是以通州、大兴、房山、昌平为代表的近郊或远郊区域更是超跌项目频频入市，不断试探区域底价，20%至30%的降价幅度已属正常，少数项目更是出现40%至50%的“无底线”降价。价格的大幅下调直接拉动了成交量的回升，2012年除1月、2月份由于假期效应成交低迷之外，进入3月之后成交开始出现回升，5月、6月份，在降准、降息的刺激下，成交量更是屡创调控以来的新高。3月、4月份与5月、6月份同是成交量上涨，内涵不同的是，3月、4月份的成交量是建立在降价，以价换量的基础上。而5月、6月份，房价开始微涨了。

In addition，House prices have really compared before hitting a regulation，Especially before April，House prices in the past two years the lowest point，The person that buy a house copy bottom mentality is obvious。The house deputy general manager RenQiXin introduce institutions，From market performance also can be seen，The case of the project depth after the discount，Since since march to the whole market began to enter the overall depth discount cycle。Especially in tongzhou、daxing、Fang shan magmatic、Changping, as a representative of the suburban or suburban area is super fall project frequently market，Constantly test area reserve price，20% to 30% of the cut prices already are normal，There is a project of 40% to 50%“No bottom line”Price cut。The prices fall sharply pulled back the direct volume，In January 2012、February holiday effect due to clinch a deal outside the downturn，After three months into clinch a deal began to appear to bounce back，may、June，In the drop must、The stimulation of cut interest rates，Volume is repeated control record high since。march、In April and may、June is rising with volume，Connotation is different，march、The volume of sales is set up in April in price cut，To change the price based on the quantity。And may、June，House prices start closed up。

　　以大兴天宫院区域为例，3月、4月份，龙湖时代天街的均价在12500元左右。5月份，周边的保利春天里，对外声称起价11500元，但只有个别户型，实际均价在13500元左右。7月份，春天里二期开盘，均价14500元。该区域8月份即将开盘的金融街融汇、中国水电(601669,股吧)云立方也在14000元至15000元之间。

In daxing day area as an example and amon，march、April，Times the average price standing lake in 12500 yuan。In may，In the spring of the surrounding poly，Foreign claims for 11500 yuan，But only individual family，The actual average price is in 13500 yuan or so。July，Phase ii opened in spring，Average 14500 yuan。This area is opened in August of blends together the financial street、China's water and electricity(601669,Shares it)Cloud cubic also 14000 yuan to 15000 yuan between。

　　入市项目定价依然会比较谨慎 Entering the market project will still be very cautious in pricing

　　对于下半年楼市的行情，北京中原地产市场研究部总监张大伟认为，5月、6月份，主要城市成交量的全面复苏，对价格的支撑作用也已经体现，房价再跌的可能性接近于零。但是因为新开工全面触底的影响，7月、8月份淡季推盘量较小，预计整体市场的成交量可能环比轻微回落。全年成交量最高点在9月、10月、11月出现的可能性非常大。整体下半年的市场成交量将会超过上半年，在调控微松的影响下，恐慌性入市量是可以支持目前的成交量继续放大20%左右。

For the second half of the property market prices，Beijing central plains real estate market research department director ZhangDaWei think，may、June，Major cities of the volume of an overall recovery，On the price of supporting function also has been reflected，The possibility of house prices fall again close to zero。But because the new start the influence of the overall hit bottom，July、August push dish quantity smaller off-season，The whole market is expected to the volume of sales fell back slightly may annulus。In September, the volume of high throughout the year、October、The possibility of November appear very big。In the second half of the whole market turnover will be more than the first half of the year，In the regulation under the influence of the loose，Panic amount can be to support the current entry in the volume of sales continue to enlarge around 20%。

　　需要提醒的是，在限购、限贷条件下，虽量价必然同涨，但价格上涨幅度有限。入市项目定价依然会比较谨慎。而且一旦出现暴涨，不排除还有政策调控。

What need reminds is，In 限购、Limit credit conditions，Although price volume inevitable with price rises，But prices are limited。Entering the market project will still be very cautious in pricing。And once shot up，Don't rule out and policy adjustment。

　　链家地产副总裁林倩表示，二手房方面，自5月以来北京二手住宅成交连续在1.2万套以上，进入7月份后成交再创新高，价格小幅上涨。按照当前的成交趋势来看，预计下半年整体成交量仍较为可观，但是在限购的环境下，市场成交潜力有限，难有突破性的上涨。价格也有一定的上涨空间，不过仍难言反弹。

The vice President LinQian chain home real estate said，Secondhand the room in，Since may since Beijing second-hand housing for more than 12000 sets in clinch a deal，In July clinch a deal after hit a new high，A modest rise in price。According to the current trend to clinch a deal，Overall, the volume of the second half is still expected to be considerable，But in 限购 environment，Market potential, clinch a deal，To have a breakthrough rise。The price also have certain up space，But still unaccountable rebound。

　　林倩分析，从历来二手房的量价关系上看，成交量突破1.8万套以上，价格才有大幅上涨的可能，而在当前市场环境下月均突破1.8万套的可能性不大，因此房价并不具备大涨的动力。

LinQian analysis，From the quantity and price of housing has always been in relation to，Volume break through more than 18000 sets，Price rises have likely，And in the current market environment is the average monthly reached 18000 sets is unlikely，So prices surged to don't have power。

　　中经联秘书长陈云峰也说，他同意“楼市最坏的时候已经过去了”这种说法。当前楼市量价上涨，尤其是上半年在经济大势以及地方调控频出的情况下，政策松绑预期和楼市回暖预期都有所加强，下半年房价反弹压力加大。但限购有如“一块板子”压着，再涨也“涨不过头儿”。

Classics in ChenYunFeng secretary-general also said union，He agreed to“The worst of the housing market was over”This statement。The current market price increase of amount，Especially in the economy in the first half and half PinChu regulation under the condition of the place，Policy easing expectations and property market warms up expectations are strengthened，The second half of house prices rebound pressure increase。But 限购 like“A board”pressure，And rose also“Rise but head”。