2012年6月8日起，央行决定下调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率0.25个百分点，不足一月，央行再次宣布自7月6日起下调利率，两次降息后对房市成交量走势的影响，成为近期一个热点。本报告通过对利息调整与历史成交量走势的分析，总结并量化了成交量的滞后性，解读近期以及未来市场成交量与降息的关系。2012上半年，成交量回升显著，7月前三周成交量有所回落，但仍为近两年同期最高，仅低于2009年同期；从历史数据来看，成交量变化滞后于利率调整约4-5个月，且市场对加息的反映更快、更敏感。此外，一二线城市周成交波动普遍大于三线城市，受利率等宏观政策和推出量等指标变化更为敏感。

On June 8, 2012 up，Central bank decided to cut financial organ renminbi the benchmark interest rate 0.25%，For less than a month，The central bank announced again since the July 6, up to cut interest rates，After two cuts to housing market volume trends influence，Become a recent hot spots。This report to interest adjustment and history through the analysis of the volume trends，Summarize and quantify the volume lag，Recent and future market volume interpretation with the relationship between the rate cut。The first half of 2012，Volume picks up significantly，Three weeks before July, the volume of easing，But still the same period for nearly two years the highest，Only lower than the same period in 2009；From the historical data and see，Volume changes in interest rates of about 4 lag-5 months，And the market to raise interest rates reflect faster、More sensitive。In addition，A second city weeks more than three line clinch a deal fluctuations common city，Interest rates by macro policy and launch of change is more sensitive index。

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1.整体表现：年初以来成交量回升显著，7月前三周成交量较6月底的峰值回落，但仍为近两年同期最高 Overall performance：Since the beginning of the volume picks up significantly，July 3 weeks before the end of June, the volume of a peak fall back，But still the same period for nearly two years the highest，仅低于2009年同期

，Only lower than the same period in 2009

10个代表城市周成交量与5年期以上贷款利率走势对比 10 represents a city weeks with more than 5-year volume loan interest rate trend contrast

　　从近期成交量周数据来看，7月前三周重点城市较6月底回落，但仍高于2008年以及2010-2011年同期水平，仅低于2009年同期。今年7月前三周，10个代表城市成交量为650万平方米，较6月前三周略降1%，但周均成交量与6月最后一周相比大幅回落35%。主要是由于开发企业冲刺年中业绩，助推6月最后一周成交量攀升，导致前三周成交量较6月底有所回落，但也仍处于近年较高水平，延续了年初以来的持续增长态势。同比来看，7月前三周大幅增长63%，与2010年和2008年同期比较增幅也在90%左右，虽比2009年同期的历史高位（6月）仍下降24%，但作为传统淡季，成交量仍旧突出。

Recent data from volume weeks to see，July 3 weeks before a key city fell back to the end of June，But still higher than the 2008 and 2010-2011 in the same period level，Only lower than the same period in 2009。Three weeks before July this year，10 for 6.5 million square meters, the volume of representative cities，A June 3 weeks before slightly down 1%，But weeks are volume and the last week of June compared to 35% drop sharply。Is mainly due to the development enterprise sprint years performance，The last week of June, the volume of drivers to climb，The first three weeks to volume is to drop back to the end of June，But it is still at the higher level in recent years，Since the beginning of the continued the continued growth of the situation。Up to see，Three weeks before the July increase 63%，And in 2010 and 2008, the increase has compared at around 90%，Although more than the same period in 2009 historic highs（June）Still down 24%，But as a traditional slack，Volume is still outstanding。

　　历史数据显示，成交量变化滞后于利率调整约4-5个月，且市场对加息的反映更快、更敏感。2008年9-12月，央行4个月内连续5次降息，距离首次降息约5个月后成交量开始回升。10个重点城市成交量自2009年第7周开始稳定回升，12周起连续20周成交量超出2008年下半年周均值1倍以上，2010年虽受房地产宏观调控影响成交量有所下降，但周均成交量仍比2008下半年高35%。2010年10月-2011年7月，央行连续5次提高利率，距离首次加息约4个月后成交量开始回落。2011年第8周起成交量大幅下降，周均成交量较2010年下降16%，创历史新低。2012上半年，重点城市成交量回升，周均成交量与2010年基本持平。2012年6-7月，央行时隔3年半再度连续2次下调利率，大大缓解了房地产市场观望情绪，但因此前信贷投放力度加大、首套房利率重回85折优惠等政策，主要城市成交量已从2月开始持续回升并在6月接近2010年调控以来的高点，因此之后7月前几周的成交量并未继续回升。考虑到利率政策影响的滞后性，预计降息对成交量的影响将在下半年逐步显现，一定程度上继续推动成交的平稳回升。需要注意的是，房地产成交量受多因素影响，如宏观经济、调控政策、市场预期、季节性因素等，而利率调整仅是影响房地产市场变化的其中一个因素。

Historical data shows，Volume changes in interest rates of about 4 lag-5 months，And the market to raise interest rates reflect faster、More sensitive。September 2008-12 months，Four months after the central bank cut interest rates for five times，Distance to cut interest rates for the first time about five months after volume starts to climb back up。10 key city since 2009, the volume of 7 weeks stability to bounce back，12 week for the 20 weeks beyond 2008, the volume of the second half of the year weeks mean 1 times above，In 2010 by real estate macro-control effect though volume fell，But weeks are still the second half of 2008, the volume of more than 35% higher。In October 2010-July 2011，The central bank raised interest rates five times，Distance raised interest rates for the first time about four months after volume fell。In 2011, the volume of eighth week dropped substantially，Weeks are a 2010 volume dropped by 16%，Historic low rate of。The first half of 2012，Key city volume to bounce back，In 2010, the volume of all week with flat。In June, 2012-July，The central bank after 3 and a half years for 2 times to cut interest rates again，Greatly ease the real estate market wait-and-see mood，But so the supply of credit before intensified、The first interest rate to return to discount suite 85 and other policies，The main city volume has starting in February from continue to rise in June and close to 2010 years since the regulation of high，So in July after a few weeks before the volume of sales, did not continue to recover。Considering the influence of interest rate policy lag，To the influence of the volume is expected to cut interest rates will gradually appear in the second half，To some extent, a smooth continue to push back。Note，Real estate volume influence by various factors，Such as macroeconomic、Control policies、Market expectations、Seasonal factors, such as the，And the interest rate adjustment is only influence the real estate market change one of the factors。

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2.不同城市：各类城市表现分化，一二线城市成交量波动大，市场反应更敏感 Different cities：All kinds of urban performance differentiation，A second city volume big fluctuations，Market reaction more sensitive

10个代表城市周成交量与5年期以上贷款利率走势对比 10 represents a city weeks with more than 5-year volume loan interest rate trend contrast

　　从不同城市的近期周成交数据来看，一二线城市回升力度更大，一线城市变化最显著。7月前三周，一二线城市成交量分别为180万平方米、95万平方米，较去年同期分别增长29%、37%，回升力度高于同期三线城市（增长1%），且从绝对量来看，一线城市仍是最大。与6月前三周相比，一线城市增长12%，为二线城市增速的6倍，说明一线城市回升力度更大，市场反应更敏感，三线城市则下降7%。受交易系统备案和调控政策滞后性影响，近期降息暂并未使得成交量持续放大，但已成功打破市场的观望情绪，助推积压已久的刚需和部分改善性需求进一步释放。

The recent weeks from different cities to clinch a deal data to see，A second city rebounded more strength，A city the most significant changes。Three weeks before the July，A second city volume for 1.8 million square meters respectively、950000 square meters，Compared to the same period last year growth of 29%, respectively、37%，Back up strength the same period than three line city（1% increase），And from the absolute and see，A city is still the largest。And before June than three weeks，A city growth of 12%，For second line 6 times of urban growth，A line that city picks up strength more，Market reaction more sensitive，Three line it dropped 7% in the city。The record by trading system and control the hysteresis influence policy，Recent temporary did not make volume cut interest rates for amplification，But has successfully broken market wait-and-see mood，Thrusting backlog already a long time of just need to improve and part of the sexual needs further release。

　　从不同城市的历史成交数据来看，一二线城市成交量波动大于三线城市，受利率等宏观政策和推出量等指标变化更为敏感。2009年，房地产市场整体形势良好，另外在2008年末开始的5次降息累加作用影响下，成交量大幅攀升，一二线城市增幅均在85%以上，三线城市增幅略小，为68%。2010年，受房地产宏观调控影响，成交量普遍下降，其中一二线城市分别下降为40%和31%，而三线城市降幅仅为11%。2011年，受2010年10月起连续5次加息以及市场整体低迷的影响，一二线城市成交下降超过15%，但三线城市却逆市微增2%。从历史上看，一二线城市成交量波动较大，受宏观政策影响最敏感，而三线城市受政策影响最小，这也是调控后成交量较为稳定的主要原因。预计随着首套房贷政策松动、降息等政策环境的改善，一二线城市积压的刚性需求以及部分改善性需求将继续得到释放，促进成交量平稳回升。

The history of the city from different clinch a deal data to see，A second city volume greater than three line wave city，Interest rates by macro policy and launch of change is more sensitive index。2009 years，The real estate market overall situation is good，Another in late 2008 the first 5 times accumulative effect to cut interest rates，Turnover has risen sharply，A second city growth were above 85%，Three line increase slightly small city，68%。2010 years，By real estate macro-control effect，Generally, the volume of decline，One second city were down 40% and 31%，And three line by city is only 11%。2011 years，By the 2010 October 5 times in a row overall market interest rates and the influence of the downturn，A second city clinch a deal to fall by more than 15%，But three city but inverse city micro increased by 2%。Look from the history，A second city volume volatile，Macro policy influence by the most sensitive，And three line by city minimal impact on policy，This is after a relatively stable volume control main reason。With the first set of housing policy is expected to become loose、Cut the improvement of the environment and other policies，A second city the backlog of rigid needs, and part of the improvement of demand will continue to release，Promote smooth volume back。