目前房价企稳的一二线城市中多数仍执行限购政策，预计下半年不会出现住房需求爆发式增加，房价总体保持基本平稳的可能性较大。

The current price of stabilising a second city in most still 限购 policy execution，Second half won't appear housing demand is expected to BaoFaShi increase，House prices kept basically stable overall probability。

　　文/刘琳

Article/LiuLin

　　2012年上半年，房屋成交量降幅逐步收窄，6月新建住房价格和二手住房价格均止跌企稳，房地产开发投资增长持续下降。预计下半年房地产市场将逐步企稳并保持稳定发展。

In the first half of 2012，House by volume gradually narrow，New housing prices in June and second-hand housing prices are stabilising reason，Investment in real estate development growth continues to decline。The second half of the real estate market will gradually is expected to remain stable and stabilising development。

　　一、2012年上半年房地产市场运行情况

a、In the first half of 2012 real estate market operation

　　2012年1-6月，国房景气指数持续下行至94.7，略低于金融危机时2009年3月的最低点，自2011年11月起房地产开发市场连续8个月在不景气区间运行。房地产市场运行状况由1季度的持续调整，逐步发展为2季度末的筑底阶段。

2012 June-1，GuoFang confidence continued downward to 94.7，Slightly less than a financial crisis in March 2009 lows，Since November 2011 real estate development market eight months in the recession interval operation。The real estate market operation condition of constant adjustment by 1 quarter，Gradually developed for 2 quarter of the building at the end of the stage。

　　1.房屋成交量减幅逐月收窄，重点城市房屋销售回升较快

1. The house disproportion in the narrow volume from month to month，Key city housing sales rebounded more quickly

　　2012年1-6月商品房屋销售面积约4亿平方米，减幅由1-2月的14%逐月收窄为10%，5、6月分别环比增加15%和52%。其中商品住宅销售面积3.53亿平方米，减幅由1-2月的16%逐月收窄为11.2%；商业用房、办公楼销售面积同比小幅增加，增幅分别为2.5%和7.1%。各类开发房屋销售面积增幅均低于去年同期。

In 2012 the first 6 months of commodity house sales area of about 400 million square meters，From 1-2 month disproportion in 14% of the narrow 10% for month after month，5、6 month increased by 15% and 52% respectively annulus。Among them commodity residential sales area of 353 million square meters，From 1-2 month disproportion in 16% of the narrow 11.2% for month after month；Commercial housing、Building a small increase year-on-year sales area，Growth of 2.5% and 7.1%, respectively。Development of all kinds of home sales were lower than the same period last year growth area。

　　40重点城市商品房销售面积降幅由1-2月的14%逐步收窄至1-6月的1.2%，5、6月房屋销售面积环比增加的城市占比分别为70%和85%。4月以来，北京、上海、广州、深圳商品房销售面积降幅均逐月收窄，北京、深圳商品房销售面积由负增长转为正增长，增幅分别为11.9%和13.4%。多数城市二手房交易量降幅逐月收窄，环比持续增加。

40 major cities of area of sale of commodity house by 1-2 month by the gradually narrowed to 14% in the first 6 months of 1.2%，5、June housing sales area of the city than November increase to 70% and 85%, respectively。Since April，Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou、Shenzhen commodity house sales area are narrow by month after month，Beijing、Shenzhen commodity house sales by negative growth to positive growth area，Growth of 11.9% and 13.4%, respectively。Most of the city housing by narrow trading month after month，Annulus comparing increasing。

　　2.新建住房价格和二手住房价格止跌企稳，房价下降城市数量逐月减少

2. New housing prices and second-hand housing prices stabilising reason，To reduce the number of cities falling house prices from month to month

　　2012年1-6月各月，70大中城市新建住宅价格降幅收窄至止跌，各月环比平均降幅分别为0.1%、0.1%、0.15%、0.1%、0.1%、0，同比分别上涨0.75%、0.15%，下降0.3%、0.65%、0.8%、0.9%。受春节因素影响，1月70大中城市新建商品住宅价格无一环比上涨，2-6月新建商品住宅价格环比下降的城市数量分别为45个、46个、43个、43个和21个。

2012 June-1 was produced，70 large and medium-sized cities by new residence price narrowed to reason，The average drop 0.1% y/y respectively、0.1%、0.15%、0.1%、0.1%、0，Respectively compared to up 0.75%、0.15%，Down 0.3%、0.65%、0.8%、0.9%。By the Spring Festival factors，January 70 large and medium-sized city new commodity residential house price rising no annulus，2-June new commodity residential house prices down the number of cities of annulus respectively for 45、46、43、43 and 21。

　　2012年1-6月各月，二手住宅价格环比降幅逐步减小至止跌企稳，前3个月环比分别下降0.3%、0.1%、0.1%，4、5、6月连续3个月环比持平，1-6月分别同比下降0.6%、0.85%、1.05%、1.4%、1.4%、2.8%。1-6月，二手住宅价格环比下降城市数量较快减少，各月分别为53个、44个、42个、33个、30个和19个。一线城市二手住宅价格均环比止跌，其中深圳二手住房价格自2月以来连续5个月环比企稳。

2012 June-1 was produced，Second-hand housing price drop gradually reduced to month-on-month stabilising reason，The first three y/y were down 0.3%、0.1%、0.1%，4、5、June 3 successive y/y flat，1-6 month 0.6% year-on-year drop respectively、0.85%、1.05%、1.4%、1.4%、2.8%。1-June，Second-hand house prices decline faster to reduce the number of cities annulus，His month for 53 respectively、44、42、33、30 and 19。A second-hand housing prices are line city reason annulus，Including shenzhen second-hand housing prices since February 5 consecutive stabilising y/y。

　　3.房地产开发投资增幅较快下降，新开工和购置土地面积负增长

3. Investment in real estate development growth faster decline，New construction and purchase land area of negative growth

　　2012年1-6月，房地产开发完成投资3.06万亿元，增幅由1-2月的27.8%持续回落为1-6月的16.6%，比去年同期增幅低16个百分点。其中，房地产开发住宅投资2.09万亿元，增幅由23.2%降为12%，增幅减少24个百分点；办公楼、商业用房和其他用房的投资增幅分别为31.9%、26.3%、28.1%。房地产开发住宅中，90平方米以下住宅投资增长24.3%，高档住宅投资增长4.6%。截至6月底，保障性安居工程已开工470万套，开工率为63%，基本建成260万套，完成投资5070亿元。

2012 June-1，Real estate development completed investment of 3.06 trillion yuan，From 1 to 2 months increase of 27.8% last fall of 1-16.6% in the month of June，Growth of 16% lower than the same period last year。Among them，Real estate development residential investment is 2.09 trillion yuan，Growth dropped to 12% from 23.2%，Growth reduced by 24%；Office building、Commercial housing and other housing investment growth to 31.9% respectively、26.3%、28.1%。Real estate development in the house，90 square meters residential investment grew by 24.3%，High-grade residential investment grew by 4.6%。By the end of June，How security construction started 4.7 million sets，Starts to 63%，Basically completed 2.6 million sets，Completed investment of 507 billion yuan。

　　2012年1-6月，房地产开发企业购置土地面积1.75万平方米，同比减少19.9%，连续6个月负增长，且幅度有所增大。房地产开发房屋新开工面积9.24万平方米，同比减少7.1%，连续3个月负增长。

2012 June-1，Real estate development enterprise purchase land area of 17500 square meters，Reduce 19.9% year-on-year，For 6 months negative growth，And amplitude slightly increased。Real estate development building new commenced area 92400 square meters，Reduce 7.1% year-on-year，Three consecutive months of negative growth。

　　分地区看，上半年长三角、珠三角、环渤海地区房地产开发投资增幅均低于1季度，长三角地区和环渤海地区购置土地面积增幅高于1季度，环渤海地区房屋新开工面积降幅相比1季度收窄。5、6月，40重点城市中超过50%的城市购置土地面积和房屋新开工面积环比增加。与1季度增幅相比，一线城市中北京、上海房地产开发投资增幅增加，上海、广州、深圳购置土地面积增幅增加，上海房屋新开工面积降幅收窄，深圳房屋新开工面积增幅增加。

Points areas see，Long triangle in the first half of、Pearl river delta、In the areas surrounding the investment in real estate development are less than 1 quarter growth，Yangtze river delta region and in the areas surrounding the purchase land area than 1 quarter growth，In the areas surrounding the building new commenced area by 1 quarter compared to narrow。5、June，40 major cities more than 50% of the city land area and house purchase new commenced area increased annulus。Compared with 1 quarter growth，A line of Beijing city、Shanghai real estate development investment growth increased，Shanghai、guangzhou、Shenzhen purchase land area increased growth，Shanghai building new commenced area by narrow，Shenzhen house new commenced area increased growth。

　　从各项指标的变化情况看，2季度末房地产市场已进入筑底阶段。4月以来，重点城市商品房屋和二手房屋交易量连续出现较大幅度的环比增加。同时，房价下降城市数量逐步减少，二手住房价格和新建住房价格相继企稳。房地产企业投资意愿总体仍处低位，但从5、6月的数据看，40重点城市中超过50%的城市购置土地面积和房屋新开工面积出现环比增加，2季度居住用地价格亦由1季度环比下降0.04%转为上涨0.13%，说明部分地区伴随房屋交易量的增加，企业投资意愿有所恢复。

From the change of each index to see，2 the quarter ended the real estate market has entered the stage of building。Since April，Key city houses and second-hand house commodity trading volume of continuous appeared more greatly increase the annulus。At the same time，Home prices down gradually reduce the number of cities，Second-hand housing prices and new housing prices have stabilising。Real estate enterprise investment intentions in general is still low，But from 5、6 month of data to see，40 major cities more than 50% of the city land area and house purchase new commenced area appears annulus comparing increase，2 quarter habitable land prices also fell by 0.04% month-on-month by 1 quarter to up 0.13%，Parts of that with the increase of the trading houses，Enterprise investment intend to restore somewhat。

　　2季度房地产市场成交回暖的原因包括3方面：第一，宏观调控由“控通胀”转为“稳增长”，提振了市场信心。第二，微调放宽的货币政策构成房地产市场的实质利好，初步估计降息和首套住房贷款优惠政策可提高居民住房支付能力13.7%。第三，房地产企业打折促销以价换量刺激了交易量的增加。

2 quarterly real estate market clinch a deal the cause of the three aspects including warmed：The first，Macro regulation by“Control inflation”to“Steady growth”，To boost the market confidence。The second，Fine-tuning easing of monetary policy constitutes the essence of the real estate market positive news，Preliminary estimates to cut interest rates and the first set of housing loan preferential policies can improve the housing the ability to pay 13.7%。The third，Real estate enterprise discounts and promotions to price change the size of the stimulus is increased。

　　二、2012年下半年房地产市场走势预测

two、The second half of 2012 real estate market trend projections

　　从需求方面看，微调放松的货币政策，提高了居民住房支付能力，在稳定经济增长、企业打折促销等多重因素共同影响下，居民房价上涨预期提高，购房意愿亦有所增加。央行2季度储户问卷调查显示，预期房价上涨的居民比例较上季提高2.8个百分点，未来3个月打算购房的居民比例较上季提高1.6个百分点。但是，房地产调控政策思路始终没有动摇，即严格实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和限购政策，严控住房投资投机需求不放松。目前房价企稳的一二线城市中多数执行限购政策，不会出现住房需求爆发式增加。三四线城市受较低的住房需求增长影响，消化市场存货时间会相对较长。

From the demand to see，Fine-tuning relaxed monetary policy，Improve the residential housing the ability to pay，In the stable economic growth、Enterprise multiple factors such as discounts and promotions to influence，Residents rising house prices expected increased，Purchase will also increases。The central bank depositors questionnaire survey 2 quarter，The inhabitants of rising house prices expected a 2.8% increase in the proportion of season，The next three months are going to buy more of the season on the proportion of residents increased by 1.6%。but，Real estate control policy ideas never be moved，That is strictly implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and 限购 policy，Tight control of housing investment demand not relax speculation。The current price of stabilising a second city in most 限购 policy execution，Won't appear housing demand BaoFaShi increase。Three or four lines by lower city housing demand growth effects，Digestive market inventory time will be relatively long。

　　从供给方面看，近两个月新建房屋交易量增加，房地产企业资金压力总体有所缓解。5月以来房地产企业本年新增资金来源增幅有所增加，新增的国内贷款、销售回款数额均逐月增加。根据建设周期推算，下半年市场供应量增长将低于上半年，市场新增存货压力减小，企业进一步降价的动力不足。

From see in supply，Nearly two months for new houses increased trading volume，Real estate enterprise financial pressures overall ease。Real estate enterprise since may this year new money source growth has increased，New home loans、Sales amount collection are increased from month to month。Calculate according to construction period，The second half of the market supply growth will be lower than the first half of the year，New stock market pressure decrease，Enterprise further reduction of underpowered。

　　综上分析，在现有政策环境和市场状况下，在宏观经济保持稳定增长、居民收入继续增加的背景下，预计下半年房价总体保持基本平稳的可能性较大；房地产开发投资增长继续小幅回落，预计全年房地产开发投资增幅大约为16%。（作者单位：国家发改委投资研究所）

All analysis，In the existing policy environment and market condition，In the macro economy maintained steady growth、Residents continue to increase the income of the background，The second half of house prices are expected to remain stable overall basic probability；Investment in real estate development growth continues to bit，Annual investment in real estate development is expected to rise about 16%。（The author unit：The national development and reform commission investment research institute）