中央决策部门、国土资源部与住建部两大中央部委近期突发紧急通知，要求坚持房地产市场调控绝不放松。

The central decision-making departments、The ministry of land and resources and live JianBu two big central ministries and a recent emergency notice，Demands to the real estate market regulation never relax。

　　最近由于环球经济疲弱，中国经济增长有所放缓，中央在货币政策上有所微调，分别调降了存款准备金率与利率。但此一动作，立即被市场解读为放松楼市调控，于是北京、广州等指标城市纷纷再度出现地王，各地楼价也明显出现反弹。70个大中城市房价指数显示，6月一手楼价按月反弹城市有25个，较5月增3倍；进入7月，楼市更趋火热，部分城市新盘开盘价已超过调控前水平。与此同时，部分地方政府也一再挑战中央底线，个别地方政府擅自取消限价、限购等严令。这样的形势发展，使中央政府不得不再重申调控楼市的坚定立场。

Due to global economic weakness recently，China's economic growth slowed in the，The central in monetary policy has fine-tuning，Respectively the reduction in the deposit reserve rate and interest rate。But the action，The market for relaxing reading immediately market regulation，So Beijing、Guangzhou city star again in succession index，Property prices also obvious rebounded all over。In 70 major cities house price index showed，6 month by month in property prices rebound city has 25，May add 3 times a；Into July，Property market more hasten is hot，Parts of the city XinPan opening price has more than before the control level。At the same time，Some local governments have also repeatedly challenge central the bottom line，Some local government cancelled without limit、限购 and ordered。Such a situation，The central government shall not no longer reiterated the firm control property market。

　　自从两年前，中央政府决定调控楼市以来，类似的博弈戏码一再重演，博弈三方——中央政府、地方政府及开发商，相互斗智、斗力、斗耐心、斗决心，坦白讲，斗得都相当辛苦。中央政府为了经济全局及社会和谐稳定，不能容许楼价飙涨，所以坚决调控；地方政府为了地方财政及地方经济发展，不愿见到楼市沉闷，因此动辄伺机挑战中央调控底线，却又一再被中央喝停；开发商更是利益攸关，存续所系，因此只要一见中央在政策上略见松动，即混水摸鱼，大肆炒作。迄目前为止，三角博弈还是一个僵持的局面。

Since two years ago，The central government decided to regulation since the property market，A similar game repertoire of repeat again and again，Game three party-the central government、The local government and developers，Carrion each other、Dou force、Dou patience、Determination to fight，To be frank，Dou get quite hard。The central government to overall economic and social harmony and stability，Can't allow property prices shoot up，So resolutely control；The local government to the local finance and local economic development，Don't want to see a property market，So easily challenge awaits the central control the bottom line，Yet again by the central drink stop；Developers is at stake，Are surviving，So as long as one see the central in the policy slightly see loose，Namely to fish in troubled waters，To hype the。Are so far，The triangle game or a deadlocked situation。

　　三方持续僵持，没有赢家；但三方的僵持如果打破，比如楼价再度飙涨，逼得中央出重手打压，最终又可能成为三输之局。中国楼市发展的困局究竟该如何面对？有没有出路？是该到了从历史发展，以及政策面、制度面，进行全盘宏观再思考的时候了。

Three party continued stalemate，No winners；But the three parties if break stalemate，Such as property prices shoot up again，Forcing the central out a trowel suppressed，And ultimately may become lost three of the innings。China property market a dilemma for the development of how face？Is there a way out？Is this the development from history，And policy、System face，For all the time thinking macro again。

　　从历史发展的角度看，中国已历经了两次重大的房改。第一次是1998年，是一次幅度极大、根本性的房改。在这之前，中国的房地产业是100%的计划经济与公有体制，1998年的房改进行了彻底的扭转，把计划转变为市场，这样的改革，大方向肯定是正确的，问题出在100%——不能将100%都交给市场。

From the point of view of historical development，China has experienced two significant room changes。The first time was in 1998，Is a great range、Fundamental changes。Before that，China's real estate industry is 100% of the planned economy and public system，1998 years of room changes a good turn，The plan into the market，This reform，General control must be correct，The problem is 100%-100% to the markets are not to be。

　　就中国房地产市场的供需结构来看，1949年人口约4.5亿，30年后增长为8亿，但此一期间，房屋供给几乎没有任何增长；又过20年，1998年，中国人口增为12亿，房屋供给虽有增加，但比例上远低于人口之增长。换言之，在1998年的前50年，人口由4.5亿增为12亿，房屋却只有少量增加，意味着中国房屋需求已蓄积了50年的巨大能量，在这样的形势下，1998年的房改，将整个产业一下子100%交给了市场，其结果可想而知。

Will China's real estate market supply and demand structure and see，In 1949 a population of about 450 million，30 years later growth for 800 million，But this time，Housing supply almost no growth；In twenty years and，1998 years，China's population increase for 1.2 billion，Housing supply although have increased，But the proportion of the population is far lower than the growth。In other words，In the 1998 years before the 50 years，Population increase by 450 million to 1.2 billion，But only a small increase houses，Means that China's housing demand has accumulated over 50 years of the great energy，In such a situation，1998 years of room changes，Will the entire industry suddenly 100% to the market，The result can be imagined。

　　1998年房改的经验，让决策部门了解了对一个发展中国家而言，政府在房地产市场中是不能缺位的。新加坡的组屋政策及中国香港的公屋政策说明了政府在房地产业中不可或缺的角色。于是，2010年推出的5年3600万套的保障房政策即可视为是中国房改政策的重大修正，也可视之为是第二次房改。

In 1998, the experience of the room，Let the decision-making departments on a understand developing countries，The government in the real estate market, is not the absence。Singapore's group policy and Hong Kong house public policy that the government in the real estate industry of the indispensable role。so，2010 roll out five years of 36 million sets of security room can be regarded as China policy changes policy significant revisions，Also visible as is the second time the room changes。

　　保障房政策的推出确立了政府在房地产业中的角色，这是正确的，但也必须看到，一则保障房的兴建需要时间，二则房地产市场在体制上的缺陷仍然存在，再加上救市政策释放过多货币的效应，对当前楼价都起到推波助澜的作用。所以中央政府在坚决调控楼价的同时，很有必要针对相关的体制与政策进行全盘的改革，包括：

Security policy established the launch of room of the role of government in the real estate industry，Is this the right，But also have to see，A guarantee the construction of the room needs time，Did the real estate market in the system of the defects still exists，Plus help city release too much the effects of monetary policy，On the current property prices plays a important role。So the central government in firmly control property prices at the same time，It is necessary to the system and policy in related to the overall reform，including：

　　（1）为地方政府建立健全的地方税制，使地方政府有稳定的税收，从根本上根除地方政府搞土地财政的诱因；

（1）For local government to establish and perfect the system of the place，So that the local government has the stable tax，Fundamentally eradicate local government make land financial incentive；

　　（2）通过政策引导，强化诱因，将开发商引入保障房的建设计划；

（2）Through the policy guidance，Strengthening incentive，Will developers into security in the room of the construction plan；

　　（3）通过交易税、房产税、增值税的课征，对房屋的投机买卖加以有效抑制。

（3）Through the tax、Housing property tax、Value added tax levied，The house to inhibit the speculation。

　　这三部分内容，可视为是中国的第三次房改，或可让中国的楼市发展走出困局。

The three parts content，China is viewed as the third room changes，Or can let China's property market development out of the boat。