综合新华社北京7月6日电 近期，楼市显现回暖迹象。最近连续两次降息也引发各界对房地产调控政策的种种猜测。

Comprehensive Beijing July 6 (Reuters) recent，Property market warms up signs appeared。In recent successive two cuts also trigger the from all walks of life to the real estate speculation adjustment and control policies。

　　那么，房价是否会出现新的较快增长？经济增速回落情况下，房地产调控政策还将持续多久？调控手段会不会有所变化？

so，Does the price will have a new fast growth？Growth fell back cases，Real estate control policy will last long？Control measures will not change？

　　销量虽回暖房价料难大涨

Though sales prices surged to thaw material

　　近期，我国楼市普遍呈回暖迹象，一二线城市尤为明显。楼市回暖后，“价随量涨”成为人们普遍担心的问题。中国房地产指数研究院调查数据显示，今年6月全国100个城市新建住宅均价比5月上涨0.05%，结束了连续9个月的环比下跌态势。那么未来房价会明显上涨吗？专家普遍认为，尽管近期房价发生波动，短期内不会大幅上涨。中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌等专家指出，事实上，当前楼市仍处于筑底阶段，只是部分区域、部分项目出现成交上涨。

recent，China property market a thaw common signs，A second city is especially remarkable。Property market warms up after，“Price rise along with the amount”Become widespread worry about。China real estate index academy survey data show，In June this year the country's 100 city new residence than average may up 0.05%，The end for nine months down the annulus trend。So the future house prices will rise apparently？Experts generally agree，Despite recent house price fluctuation happens，The short term won't rise sharply。China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang, the experts said，In fact，The housing market is still in the stage of building，Is only part of the area、Part of the project appear to clinch a deal to rise。

　　住房和城乡建设部政策研究中心主任秦虹否定了“房价已经出现较快增长”的说法，并指出，当前政策条件下，为卖而买的投机性需求进入市场的动力不大，只要坚持对第三套住房不贷款，坚持把投机买房的杠杆去掉，剩下的就是合理住房需求了。住宅市场逐步变成以居住需求为主的市场，健康程度会大大增强。

Housing and rural construction, director of the center for policy research QinHong denied“House prices has been growing rapidly”that，And points out that，The current policy conditions，For to buy and buy the speculative demand access to the market power is not big，As long as we persist in the third set of housing loan not，Insist that speculative buying a house lever removed，The rest is reasonable housing needs。The housing market gradually turned to become living demand of market mainly，Health degree would be greatly enhanced。

　　政策反复不利于稳定预期

Policy against stability and expectations

　　我国经济增速从去年一季度的9.7%回落到今年一季度的8.1%。经济下行压力之下，调控政策会不会松动？

China's economic growth of 9.7% in the first quarter from last year fell back to 8.1% of the first quarter of this year。Economy down under pressure，Control policy will not loose？

　　从政策面来看，6月以来，发改委、银监会、央行、住建部四部委就松绑房地产政策，连续辟谣。业内分析人士指出，四部委的辟谣，一定程度上表明政策不太可能从中央层面松动，限购、限贷等仍将持续，同时也表明中央决策层并不希望看到房价再度上涨。

From the policy to see，Since June of，The national development and reform commission、banking、The central bank、Live JianBu four ministries easing policy is real estate，Continuous dampen。Industry analysts said，Four ministries to dampen the，To some extent that policy is unlikely to become loose from the central level，限购、Credit limit and will continue，And it also showed that the central decision-making does not wish to see prices rising again。

　　当前，一些地方对房产调控政策进行了微调，尤其是最近整体经济疲软，地方微调的力度比较大，市场对政策的敏感度提高，购房者担忧再次错过房价低点。北京中原地产市场研究部总监张大伟表示，一旦地方过度调整楼市政策，中央肯定会有应对，所以目前来看市场明显过度反弹的可能性很小。

The current，Some parts of house property regulation policy of fine-tuning，Especially in the overall economic weakness，The strength of the local fine-tuning is larger，To improve the sensitivity of the market policies，The person that buy a house concerns missed again low prices。Beijing central plains real estate market research department director ZhangDaWei said，Once the local property market excessive adjustment policies，The central will have to deal with，So now looks obvious excessive market rebounding possibility is very small。

　　记者日前从住房和城乡建设部了解到，下半年，房地产调控决心不动摇、方向不改变、力度不放松。那些调控政策松动、房价大幅反弹、保障房建设迟缓的地方将被问责。

A reporter from housing and rural construction to understand，The second half，Real estate regulation determined not to be moved、Direction does not change、Strength not to relax。Those who control policies loose、House prices rebound sharply、Security room construction slow places will be accountability。

　　“调控方应保持一个稳定的政策预期。如此，市场主体才能有一个明确的选择。政策反复不利于稳定预期。”秦虹说。

“Regulation should maintain a stable party policy expected。so，The market main body to have a clear choice。Policy against stability and expectations。”QinHong said。

　　调控长效机制亟待建立

Control long-term effective mechanism to be set up

　　本轮房地产调控政策实施两年来，约50个城市采取了住房限购措施，加之差别化信贷政策、考核问责机制等，调控时间之长、力度之大，前所未有。专家普遍认为，这一轮调控是有效的，但也须尽早着手考虑长久之计。

This real estate regulation policy implementation in the past two years，About 50 cities to take the housing 限购 measures，Together with differentiation credit policy、Assessment accountability mechanism, etc，Control the length of time、Strength of，unprecedented。Experts generally agree，This round of regulation is effective，But also must be to consider as early as possible in the long run。

　　“短期内采取行政干预措施是不得已而为之，长期来看，不能靠限购来压抑需求、控制房价。否则，行政干预一取消，房地产业又会出现泡沫化。”财政部财政科学研究所所长贾康指出，应抓紧着手建立针对房地产市场的长效调控机制，以接续当前以行政干预为主的短期调控措施。

“The short term take administrative intervention was a necessity，In the long term，Can't rely on 限购 to suppress and demand、Control prices。otherwise，Administrative interference cancellation，The real estate industry will be turning into a bubble-and again。”The Treasury financial science research institute jia kang said，Should seize on the real estate market to establish long-term regulation mechanism，In the current administrative intervention in to the short-term measures to give priority to。

　　贾康认为，长效调控机制的核心是“双轨统筹”在“保障轨”上，政府牵头加大保障房供给，托起底端需求；在“市场轨”上，由开发商提供商品房，满足更高层次需求，政府主要管规划和税收等。贾康建议，要充分发挥税收杠杆作用，除了在交易环节严格依法征税之外，还要在保有环节征收房地产税，而这恰恰是我国现有制度的一项缺失。

Jia kang think，The core of the long-term regulation mechanism is“Double as a whole”in“Security rail”on，The government increased security room supply lead，Hold up to the bottom of the demand；in“Market rail”on，By the developer provide commodity house，Meet the demand higher level，The government's chief tube planning and tax, etc。Jia kang Suggestions，To give full play to the tax leverage，Except in trading links tax in strict accordance with the outside，But to keep link real estate tax collection，And this is precisely the existing system in our country of a missing。