兰德咨询（中国）有限公司总裁 宋延庆

Rand consulting（China）Co., LTD SongYanQing President

　　目前，房地产市场格局和企业竞争格局都在发生着鲜明而快速的变化。至于企业个体而言，找准方向、调整好节奏才能迎来新机遇。

At present，The real estate market and enterprise competition pattern in the occurrence of the brilliant and rapid change。As for the enterprise indiiduals，Get the direction、Adjust good rhythm to welcome new opportunities。

　　近期，通过对177家境内外上市房企年报中的数据关系、收入结构等因素的分析，并与往年数据的对比研究，我们从中发现了企业各自的产品结构调整和转型方向。在深入分析的过程中，最主要的感觉是“格局剧变”这四个字。

recent，Through to the 177 family circumstances listed room inside and outside the enterprise annual data relationship、Income structure analysis of factors，And with the previous years of the comparison of the data，We found the enterprise products structure adjustment and of their respective transformation direction。In the analysis of the process，The main feeling is“Pattern upheaval”These four words。

　　所谓格局，主要是指房地产市场格局和房企竞争格局。诚然，“降准”、降息以及5、6月份市场交易量的较快上升，是前期相关支持“刚需”的政策变化及其所引致的市场预期变化使然。这种变化对今年下半年的房地产市场会产生什么影响，是一个极具争议的话题。笔者认为：房价会企稳，甚至还有下降的可能性，因为库存量和资金压力很大，但波动区间估计在正负5%以内；成交量会明显上升，预计全年房地产开发投资和商品房成交量均有10%以上的增幅。

The so-called pattern，Is mainly refers to the real estate market and room enterprises competition。admittedly，“Drop must”、Rate cuts and 5、In June the size of market rise faster，The support is relevant“Just need to”Policy changes and has triggered the market expectations due to changes。This change in the second half of the year to real estate market will what influence，Is a controversial topic。The author thinks that：Prices would stabilising，And even the possibility of decline，Because inventories and funds are under a lot of pressure，But wave interval estimation in the positive and negative 5%；Volume will rise significantly，Expected annual investment in real estate development and commodity house turnover are more than 10% of the increase。

　　但这对某一特定房地产企业来说有多大意义？其实意义真的不大。与开发商私下交流时，笔者常说两句话：一，企业表现如同股市中的个股，股市普跌时，也有个股上涨；反之，即使普涨，也总有个股下跌，甚至跌停；二，你能左右政策吗？你只要把能左右的（比如产品、管理等）做好就行了，所以不要往上看，而是要往前看。

But this to a particular real estate enterprise to have much great sense？In fact meaning really is not big。Private conversation with the developers，The author often say two words：a，Enterprise performance as the stock market individual stocks，At when the stock market fell，Also have stocks rise；and，Even if general goes up，There is also always stocks fell，Even drop stop；two，You can control policy？If you can control（Such as product、management）Do line，So don't see upwards，But to move on。

　　除了往前看，也要左右看，也就是看房地产市场格局变化和企业竞争格局动向。

In addition to look forward，Also want to look around，Also is to see the real estate market and the enterprise competitive pattern pattern change trend。

　　先说市场格局，大致有两种变化：一是就产品市场格局而言，住宅市场越来越倾向于刚需、首置和改善型产品，商业地产市场则是局部性短缺和结构性泡沫交织，而旅游和度假地产、养生和养老地产等，虽有发展前景，但眼下还要解决盈利模式问题。由此，房企一定要想清楚、设计好自己的产品结构；二是就不同等级城市的市场变化而言，一线城市依然是制高点，二三线城市仍然是增长源，但部分三四线城市因为潜在供应量太大，反而市场风险大于需求更加稳定的一二线城市。由此，房企一定要做好市场布局工作。

Say first market，Generally there are two kind of change：One is the product market for pattern，The housing market is more and more tend to just need to、The first place and improve type products，Commercial real estate market, it is local shortages and structure bubble intertwined，But the travel and vacations of real estate、Health and pension real estate and so on，Although have the development prospect，But for now, profit model to solve problems。this，Enterprises must want to clear room、Design their product structure；2 it is just different levels of market changes in the city，A city is still commanding heights，The city is still ZengChangYuan three lines，But some of the three or four city for potential supply is too big，But the market risk greater than demand more stable a second city。this，Room enterprises must do market distribution work。

　　再说企业的竞争格局，主要有三种变化：一是市场集中度越来越高，而且呈现不断加速趋势。数据显示，百强房企2011年全年实现销售总额1.66万亿元，同比增长17.5%，高于全国平均水平5个百分点左右；市场占有率从2003年的13.52%增长至2011年的28.05%；2012年上半年全国TOP10企业市场份额达到16.17%，较2011年上半年的13.51%增加了2.66个百分点；二是分化越来越明显。不但不同梯队的企业在加剧分化，而且一线企业也在加剧分化：每年总有新晋级的，也总有掉队的；三是尽管如此，小、散、乱的格局还没有根本改变。这也就意味着，只要找准了方向、调整好节奏，可能一两年、一两个项目就会促使企业实现“三级跳”。

Besides the enterprise the competitive pattern，There are three main changes：One is the market concentration is getting higher and higher，And has continued to accelerate the trend。Data shows，Top enterprises in all 2011 house sales of 1.66 trillion yuan RMB，Year-on-year growth of 17.5%，Above the national average of 5%；Market share in 2003 from 13.52% in 2011 to 28.05%；In the first half of 2012 the national TOP10 enterprise market share up to 16.17%，A 13.51% in the first half of 2011, a 2.66% increase；Two is differentiation is more and more obvious。Not only the enterprise in different echelon aggravate differentiation，And a line enterprise has intensified differentiation：Every year there are new promotion，There is also always left behind；Three is still，small、scattered、A pattern has not changed fundamentally。This also means，As long as get the direction、Adjust good rhythm，May be a year or two、A two project will promote the enterprise implementation“Triple jump”。

　　至于竞争者，还是希望企业“以我为主”。在你与竞争者都处于快速的动态变化中，左顾右盼多了，反而容易乱了方寸。

As for competitors，Or hope enterprise“Based on”。In you and competitors are in the dynamic changes of the fast，Glance left much，But easy to random heart。

　　所以，还是那句话：抱最大希望，尽最大努力，做最坏打算，持最好心态；记住该记住的，忘记该忘记的，接受成事实的，改变能改变的。如此，或将迎来新的、难得的发展机遇。

so，Or that sentence：Embrace best hope，Do our best to，Do the worst，The best mentality；Remember what should be remembered，Forget the forgotten，Accept the fact that a，To change the change。so，Or will have new、Rare opportunities of development。