分析师预计，到8月9日（国际上）22个工作日满足之时，三地变化率仍会在+4%以上，届时，理论上调窗口将会开启，发改委随时都有上调价格的可能

Analysts expect，To August 9,（international）22 days of satisfy，The three places rate will be at + 4%，when，Theory raised window will open，The national development and reform commission has raised the price at any time possible

　　■本报记者 李春莲

S LiChunLian our reporter

　　近期国际油价出现持续四天上涨的走势，三地变化率保持大幅上涨的态势，据卓创资讯数据显示，截止到7月27日，三地变化率为3.95%，较上一交易日上涨0.51%，今日变化率将会涨破4%，市场看涨气氛愈加浓厚。

Recent international oil prices for four days in rising trend，The three places rate rises to keep the situation，According to information data shows zhuo and，By July 27，The three places rate of 3.95%，More on a higher at 0.51%，Today's rate would rise 4% will be broken，Market bullish atmosphere all the strong。

　　 但是，“22个工作日”条件尚未满足，所以近期市场平稳行情仍将延续。

but，“22 days”Conditions have not yet meet，So recent market stable prices will still continue。

　　 成品油三连调后，油品市场人士普遍认为，油价已经跌至底部，补货、备货潮涌起，抄底操作开始活跃，带动油品市场价格开始上扬。

Even after the three oil products，People generally think oil market，Oil prices had fallen to the bottom，replenishment、Thrown up ready for the，Copy the operation began to active，Drive the oil market prices began to rise。

　　随着调价窗口日逐渐临近，下月上旬市场汽柴油价格及行情继续坚挺为主，部分尚低于零售限价的单位有继续补涨到位的可能，或带动部分业者的一小波补仓行为。

Refiners, near the window with gradually，Early next month gasoline and diesel prices and market prices continue to strong primarily，Part of the retail prices is still lower than the unit has continued to BuZhang in place of may，Or driving a small part of the industry wave margin behavior。

　　 卓创资讯分析师认为，若近期国际油价保持小幅震荡走势，使三地原油均价保持以目前价位上下3美元/桶的幅度震荡，则到8月9日（国际上）22个工作日满足之时，三地变化率仍会在+4%以上，届时，理论上调窗口将会开启，发改委随时都有上调价格的可能。

Zhuo and analysts think that information，If oil prices remain a small concussion recent international trend，Make three average price of crude oil to keep current price $3 per barrel and the range of the concussion，Is to August 9,（international）22 days of satisfy，The three places rate will be at + 4%，when，Theory raised window will open，The national development and reform commission has raised the price at any time possible。

　　 而今年以来，成品油已经上调两次，此次或将迎来年内第三次上调。

And since this year，Oil has raised twice，This or will have years third rises。

　　 此外，今年二季度以来，国内成品油市场迎来“三连跌”的局面，主营汽柴价格持续下滑，库存压力较大，补给资源较少，导致主营炼厂炼油板块亏损加大频频下调其产量。

In addition，Since the second quarter of this year，In domestic refined oil market“Three even fall”situation，The main steam wood prices continue to slide，Inventory pressure great，Supplies fewer resources，Main refinery in oil refining sector increased its production cut losses frequently。

　　 而随着变化率的持续上涨，业者普遍看涨后市，贸易商积极备货，汽柴油出货较好，本月大部分地区销售任务已经完成。而目前江西中石化柴油资源凸显紧张局势，湖北部分市级公司汽油批发停售，少数加油站93#汽油已经出现断供的现象，山东中石油汽柴油批发也限量销售。

And as of the variation of the continuing to rise，Companies generally bullish market outlook，Traders positive preparation，Steam ship diesel is good，In most parts of this month sales task has been completed。And at present jiangxi sinopec diesel resources highlights tension，Hubei part of the municipal company gasoline to halt sales wholesale，A few gas station # 93 gas has been broken for the phenomenon，Shandong in gasoline and diesel oil wholesale also limited sales。

　　卓创资讯分析师表示，目前国内主营炼厂炼油板块处于亏损状态，如果上调窗口开启之后，发改委迟迟不落实调价，不排除国内成品油资源出现大规模紧张的可能。

Zhuo and information analysts said，At present domestic main refinery in the red state refinery plate，If raised after the open window，The national development and reform commission has not carry out there，Don't exclude domestic product oil resources appear large-scale strain of may。

　　 此外，成品油上调价格消息落地之时，各个商家开始观望市场动向，因库存已经处于高位水平，短期内下游商家暂无备货需求，市场处于停滞状态，高价打压市场需求，成交寥寥。但此状况不会持续很长时间。

In addition，Oil price rise when the news be born，All companies began to look market trends，Because of the high inventory is level，The short term downstream businesses no preparation demand，Market stagnant，High prices down the market demand，Clinch a deal very。But this situation cannot continue the very long time。

　　 需要注意的是，8月正值油品市场需求旺季，暑期车辆出行增多，我国海域休渔期即将结束，船舶用油需求有望回升，车、船共同支撑汽柴油与燃料油市场购销气氛活跃。且7月底山东地方炼厂开工率现低位反弹迹象。

Note，August when oil market demand peak season，Summer travel vehicles increased，Our waters a two-month fishing moratorium is coming to an end，Shipping oil demand is expected to pick up，car、To support the gasoline and diesel fuel oil market with buying and selling active atmosphere。And the end of July, shandong place starts now low signs refinery rebound。

　　 卓创资讯预测，成品油上调之后，8月中下旬，汽柴油与燃料油市场受下游需求增加带动出货量继续提升，价格也呈上行走势。

Zhuo and information prediction，After oil rise，Late August，With gasoline and diesel fuel oil market is downstream demand increase drive shipments continued ascension，The price also is upward trend。