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各地整理上半年楼市数据 北京“量增价跌”--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-06

  本报记者获悉,在年中经济形势会议召开前夕,北京、河南、四川等多省市都在密集收集、整理上半年楼市数据

Our reporter learned that,In the years before the economic situation meeting,Beijing、henan、Sichuan provinces and cities in more dense collection、In the first half of finishing market data。

  7月17日,北京市房协受北京住建委委托发布上半年京城楼市数据显示,前6月,北京新建商品住房成交3.5万套,同比增加13.7%。新建商品住房价格2.05万元/平方米,同比下降9.2%。

July 17,,Beijing by Beijing appoint 'blocking one association issued by city housing data shows that in the first half,6 months before,Beijing new commodity housing clinch a deal of 35000,Increased 13.7% year-on-year。New commercial housing price 20500 yuan/square metre,9.2% year-on-year drop。

  北京市房地产协会秘书长陈志表示,虽然近期楼市初现成交量回暖,个别项目存在试探性涨价,但总的来说,首都楼市呈现“量涨价跌”趋势,楼市调控效果明显,在下半年调控持续,库存高企的背景下,首都房价不存在大幅上涨的可能性。

The Beijing real estate association secretary-general ChenZhi said,Although recent property market volume is beginning to thaw,Individual items have the exploratory price increases,But on the whole,Capital market present“Quantity price fall”trend,Market control effect is obvious,In the second half for regulation,Under the background of high inventory,The capital house prices do not exist the possibility of rise sharply。

  北京样本:量增价跌 Beijing samples:Quantity to add price falls

  根据北京市房协发布北京上半年楼市数据,新建商品住房成交3.5万套,同比增加13.7%;新建商品住房价格2.05万元/平方米,同比下降9.2%。其中,90%的成交为首次购房比重。

According to the Beijing 'blocking one in the first half of Beijing property market data issued by the association,New commercial housing 35000 set clinch a deal,Increased 13.7% year-on-year;New commercial housing price 20500 yuan/square metre,9.2% year-on-year drop。Among them,90% of the deal for the first time, the proportion that buy a house。

  而就在前一天,北京国土局亦发布数据,上半年,住宅楼面单价为4528元/平方米,较2011年全年住宅楼面单价4908元/平方米下降7%,土地价格回归到2009年前期水平。

And in the day before,Beijing also choose release data,In the first half,Residential floor price for 4528 yuan/square metre,A full year 2011 residential floor price 4908 yuan/square metre fell 7%,Land prices to return to the 2009 level。

  陈志介绍,从上半年数据来看,北京市楼市调控的效果还是非常明显的,在成交量上升的背景下,房价合理回归,投资投机性需求得到了有效抑制。

ChenZhi introduced,In the first half from data to see,Beijing property market control effect is very obvious,Under the background of the rise in the volume,House prices reasonable return,Investment the speculative demand has been effectively restrain。

  不过,北京中原地产市场总监张大伟称,3月份以来,楼市成交量逐步回暖,再地王回归,利率下调,肯定会诱发企业涨价的冲动,未来北京楼市调控依然存在很大压力。

but,Beijing centaline property market director ZhangDaWei says,Since march,Property market turnover gradually thaw,King return again,rate,Will induce enterprise prices impulse,The future Beijing property market regulation there is still a huge pressure。

  北京市房协的一位负责人也认为,量和价是紧密相连的,在量增的背景下,严控房价的上涨,将是三季度拷问各地政府的难题所在。

Beijing ('blocking one a controller also think,Quantity and price is connected,In the background of the quantity to add,Tight control of the rise in house prices,Will be three quarters of all over the government's problem is torture。

  北京住建委网签最新数据,7月上半月北京住宅网签总量约为13433套,环比上涨27%,同比大幅上涨56.3%。

Beijing is built appoint nets to sign the latest data,July first half Beijing housing nets sign about 13433 sets of the total amount,Annulus comparing rose 27%,A year-on-year increase of 56.3%。

  与此同时,记者深入一线调查获悉,7月以来,北京55个热点项目,41个均价上涨,占比75%。

At the same time,The reporter, deep into the line survey learned,Since July,Beijing 55 hot project,41 average price rise,More than 75% of。

  此外,继万柳地王后,北京市土地市场也开始升温,7月17日,北京市共出让5块地,其中大兴旧宫地块颇受关注,楼面价超过15918元每平方米,溢价率为45%。一扫5月住宅地块“零”成交的冷清窘况。

In addition,Following the wanliu to the queen,Beijing land market began to heat up,July 17,,Of the five pieces of Beijing,Among them JiuGong plot quite concern's,Floor price more than 15918 yuan of every square metre,Premium rate is 45%。A sweep may house plot“zero”The cold and cheerless tremendous clinch a deal。

  陈志也表示,3月份以来,支撑楼市成交量上涨主要是首次置业,在交易量上涨,房价和土地市场处于低位的背景下,不能称之为严格意义的回暖,虽然个别区域或者个别楼盘可能存在局部的价格上涨,但大幅、普遍性的上涨可能性不大。

ChenZhi also said,Since march,Support rising property market turnover is mainly first-time home buyers,Rise in trading volume,House prices and low land market of the background,Can't call it strictly of buoyancy,Although individual area or individual buildings there may be local prices,But a、Universal is unlikely to rise。

  “一方面,调控放松的政策条件不存在;另一方面,当前住房市场的消费主体为刚需,对价格较为敏感,项目一旦出现上涨,必然导致滞销。更为重要的是,北京的商品房市场总体供大于求。”陈志如是介绍。数据显示,截至6月底,北、上、广、深四大一线城市的楼市库存总量为23.21万套,其中,北京商品房库存为8.1万套,依然处于历史高位。

“On the one hand,Regulation of policy conditions do not exist to relax;On the other hand,The current housing market consumption subject for just need to,Price is sensitive to,Once the project is rose,Will inevitably lead to poor。Even more important,Beijing commodity house market overall excess supply。”ChenZhi if introduce。Data shows,By the end of June,north、on、wide、Deep four a city in the housing market inventory amount for 232100 sets,Among them,Beijing commodity house inventory for 81000 sets,Still at record highs。

  各地密集收集数据 Dense collection data all over

  实际上,在北京市房协公布上半年楼市数据之时,记者调查获悉,河南、四川等多个省份都在密集收集、整理上半年房地产市场数据。

In fact,In Beijing property market data released 'blocking one association in the first half,A survey that,henan、Sichuan provinces are in dense collection、Finishing the real estate market data in the first half。

  河南省住建厅的一位人士介绍,根据要求,各市县需在7月13日前上报上半年房地产市场运行情况,以及出现该情况的原因和应对的措施,并分析本市县下半年房地产运行走势。

Henan province built hall of a live person introduces,According to the requirements,Every city and county must in the 13 July report before the real estate market in the first half,And the reason there and cope with measures,And the second half of this city and county real estate operation analysis of the trend。

  “根据初步整理的数据来看,调控效果明显,成交量回暖多是"以价换量"的结果,后续房价不存在大幅上涨的可能性。”上述人士进一步介绍。

“According to preliminary sorting data to see,Control effect is obvious,Volume is much warmer"To change the price of"results,Subsequent house prices do not exist the possibility of rise sharply。”Above to further introduction。

  不谋而合,上述国研中心的人士介绍,在上周密集摸底近期楼市回暖中,各机构和被调研部门均反映,房地产交易量上升是因为以价换量,未来房价反弹的可能性很小。

completely,The countries of the personage introduces research center,In the dense touch bottom recent property market warms up last week,Agencies and research departments shall reflect,Real estate volume rises because it to price in quantity,The possibility of future house prices rebound is very small。

  中国社会科学院研究员曹建海认为,房地产市场已经出现反转,如果不加抑制的话恐将再次引起恶性暴涨。

The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher CaoJianHai think,The real estate market has a reversal,If not add words could inhibit will again cause malignant boom。

  “以价换量的确是楼市的真实反映,但成交量反弹肯定会诱发企业涨价的冲动,各地政府、机构在总结上半年房价数据,避谈后续房价上涨的压力,可能也是希望决策层定调调控时,不要再从紧。”

“To change the price of the property market is indeed true reflection,But the volume will certainly cause rebound enterprise prices impulse,Governments around the world、Institutions in the summary data in the first half of house prices,Subsequent eschew the pressure of the rising house prices,May also hope to pitch regulation decision-making,Don't tight。”

  上述国务院研究中心的一位不愿具名的人士介绍,根据目前的楼市调控效果来看,预计后续调控将以稳为主,不会祭出新的更严的调控政策。

The research center of the state council an anonymous person introduces,According to the present market control effect and see,Follow-up regulation will be firm is expected to give priority to,Not offering a new more strict control policy。

  阳光100常务副总裁范小冲认为,下半年,调控基本面还是稳定并从紧,但是预计在执行层面上将大打折扣。“上半年,中国经济破8后,地方政府暗自松动调控,和中央的博弈中更增加了一成信心。”

The sun 100 standing vice President FanXiaoChong think,The second half,Regulation was stable and tight fundamentals,But it is expected that in the execution level, it would sell at a discount greatly。“In the first half,China's economy after the eight,The local government was loose regulation,And the central in the game of increased ten percent more confidence。”

  上述北京市房协的负责人称,对于中央和地方来说,楼市调控和稳增长正成为两难,继续严控,销售萎缩,房地产投资必然下行,上下游产业链的需求也将萎缩,必会拉动经济下行。下半年,尤其是三季度,保量和控价的平衡以及稳增长和楼市调控之间如何平衡是很纠结的一件事。

The above Beijing ('blocking one officials say,For the central and local speaking,Property market regulation and steady growth is a dilemma,To continue tight control of,Sales atrophy,Real estate investment must be to the downside,The industrial chain of upstream and downstream demand will also be atrophy,It will pull the economy to the downside。The second half,Especially in the third quarter,The balance of quantity and KongJia and steady growth and market regulation between how balance is very of tangled a thing。

  “想解决上述矛盾,就需要决策层高度关注立法层面,降低地方政府对土地财政的依赖,以及地价占比房价的比重。”上述人士如是介绍。

“Want to solve the contradictions,Need attention decision-making level of legislation,Reduce the local government to the land of financial dependency,And land price than the proportion of house prices。”If the person is introduced。



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