7月份，商品住宅市场延续6月的成交热度，成交量继续上涨，同时库存量连续回落，在刚需释放之后，改善性需求入市量大幅增加。

July，Commodity residential market last June clinch a deal of heat，Volume continue to rise，At the same time inventory continuous fell back，In just need after release，Improve sexual needs of market increase。

　　

7月上旬新房住宅成交量同比涨55%，6月改善性购房占比近4成 July a bridal chamber volume rose 55% year-on-year residence，June improve sex than nearly four into account for purchase

　　根据链家地产市场研究统计，截至10日，北京新房住宅成交量为4365套，比6月上旬上涨了55.3%，同比去年上涨了57.6%。如果算上二手房成交，7月上旬，北京住宅成交总量为8862套，比去年同期翻了将近一倍。

According to the real estate market research statistics chain home，By 10,，Beijing bridal chamber volume for 4365 sets of residence，Than early June rose 55.3%，Last year, up 57.6% year-on-year。If you include the secondhand the room to conclude a deal，Early July，Beijing housing clinch a deal amount for 8862 sets，More than the same period last year over the nearly twice as many。

　　链家地产市场研究部陈雪认为，7月上旬的高成交量，一方面是延续6月底的市场热度，另一方，从6月开始集中释放的改善性需求成为7月以后商品住宅市场的另一重要支撑。今年上半年，单月新房住宅上旬的成交量基本都占到全月的23%，即使按照较高的30%比例计算，7月全月的成交量估计也有可能达到1.2万套。如果改善性购房的比例继续上涨，则有可能使7月份均价再次拉高到年内最高值。

House property market research ChenXue chain that，July a high volume，On the one hand it is continuance of the market at the end of June heat，The other party，From June began to focus on the improvement of the release sexual needs become after July commodity residential market of another important support。In the first half of this year，The biggest housing a bridal chamber volume are accounted for on the basic of 23%，Even by higher 30% proportion computation，The month of July, the volume of also estimated to have a could reach 12000 sets。If improve the proportion of sexual buys a room to continue to rise，Have the potential to make July average push to years again high。

　　目前，商品住宅市场已经并非全然依靠刚需支撑，改善性需求正继刚需以后大量释放，主要表现如下：

At present，Commodity residential market has not completely depend on just need to support，Improve sex demand is just a large release after the need，Mainly as follows：

　　首先，6月份，全市商品住宅成交中，单价2万元/平方米以上的成交占比达到36%，接近去年同期水平，与年初相比上涨了十几个百分点；

first，June，The commodity residential house in the deal，The unit price is 20000 yuan/square meters above the deal reached 36%，Close to the level of the same period last year，Compared with the rising early ten a few percent；

　　其次，五环内和五环外商品住宅成交均价较5月分别上涨了约2000元和1000元左右；

second，Five rings and rings in the commodity residential house is the price may rise respectively about 2000 yuan and 1000 yuan；

　　再次，进入7月后，商品住宅库存再次落到8万套以下，7月9日，库存面积为9599873.8平方米，达到年内最低值。同时，7月上旬，库存平均面积全部落入121-122平方米范围内，而这一数据在4中下旬到5月底期间，都落在122-127范围内。6月全月的库存平均面积也只有121.4平方米，是近3年以来的最低值。这说明， again，Into seven months later，Commodity residential house again fell to 80000 sets of the inventory，July 9,，Inventory area is 9599873.8 square metre，The lowest to years。At the same time，Early July，Stock average area of all fall into 121-122 square meters area，And the data in the middle of the end of May 4 to period，Falls in the 122-127 range。June on the stock average area of only 121.4 square meters，Is the lowest since the last 3 years。This shows that，商品住宅库存中的大户型进入快速消化阶段 Commodity residential house in stock, large family into the rapidly digested stage

　　二手房市场，自6月以后，改善性需求明显增加，7月上旬，改善性购房的占比也达到35%-40%左右。陈雪认为，改善性群体的集中入市对价格的稳定性产生冲击。一方面，这部分购房群体对价格上涨范围的可接受程度偏高，另一方面，市场惯性是“买涨不买跌”，平均价格上涨将逐进一步促进需求入市，反过来再重新作用于市场，使得涨价预期更强烈。自7月以后，改善性购房的占比有可能超过4成，如果成交量持续上涨，价格反弹的风险会较以前有所提高。

Second-hand housing market，After since June，Improve sexual needs increased significantly，Early July，Improve sex than the purchase of 35%-40%。ChenXue think，Improve the focus groups to the stability of the entry price impact。On the one hand，This part of the purchase price range of group for acceptable level is on the high side，On the other hand，Market inertia is“Buy or not to buy up fall”，Average prices will further promote by demand market，Again, in turn, in the role of the market，Makes prices expected more intense。Since July after，Improve the purchase of sex than likely more than 4 into，If the volume continuing to rise，The resilience of the price risk increase than before。

　　另外，根据链家地产市场研究部统计，全市商品住宅成交量在6月和5月都进入前50的项目有37个，其中26个6月均价出现上涨，但平均涨幅只有3.2%，涨幅超过5%的只有首开·常青藤、中粮万科长阳半岛、鸿坤理想城、龙湖·时代天街、融创长滩壹号四个。目前，涨幅较明显的项目大多集中在持续热销的项目上，但随着成交量和价格的持续回暖，不排除其他热销项目增加提价频率的可能性。

In addition，According to the real estate market research statistics chain home，The volume of commodity residential house in June and 5 months before the project has 50 37，Which 26 June average rose，But with an average increase of 3.2%，Or more than 5% of the only first open · ivy、Cofco vanke changyang peninsula、Hongkun ideal city、Dragon lake · standing era、Melting and long beach, one of four。At present，Or more apparent project for the sell like hot cakes in mostly projects，But with the volume and prices continue to thaw，Several other project price increase the frequency of sell like hot cakes possibility。