近期房地产市场走势颇受市场关注：年初开始行业销量下跌趋势趋稳，北京、深圳等前期销量跌幅较大的一线城市回暖趋势更为明显。伴随销量止跌回升，部分一二线城市房价开始触底回升，随后部分一二线城市土地市场开始回暖，对房价反弹和政策加紧的预期重新开始撩动市场神经，但笔者认为仅从现阶段量价表现判断市场全面回暖还为时尚早。

The recent real estate market movements popular with market focus：At the beginning of the year industry of falling sales trend stabilised，Beijing、Shenzhen sales for the heavy falls a line of urban thaw trend is more obvious。Along with the reason sales rebounded，Part of a second city house prices began to hit bottom to bounce back，Then a second line of urban land market began to thaw，To the house bounce and policy to expected to start flap market nerve，But I think the situation only quantity and price of market judgment performance comprehensive thaw is likely to be。

　　短期房价不存在 Short-term prices don't exist

　　持续上涨动力 Continue to rise power

　　随着预期改善，刚需回暖有其可持续性，但结合高库存和政策性因素，房价在短期内并不存在持续上升动力。

With the expected to improve，Just need to thaw has its sustainability，But based on the high inventory and policy factors，House prices in the short term there does not exist rising power。

　　首先，近期房价上涨有结构性因素。除市场回暖影响，近期改善性需求的入场也是统计上房价出现明显上涨的重要原因。由于2011年下半年预期转向，市场上高端产品成交低迷，价格基数低，所以近期高端产品成交量的上升对统计上的房价影响较大，而事实上这些高端楼盘售价和前期相比并无提高，甚至略有折扣。

first，The recent rise in house prices have structural factors。In addition to market warms up influence，Recent sexual needs to improve the statistics on the house prices is also appear significantly higher important reasons。Because of the second half of 2011 expected to，High-end products on the market downturn clinch a deal，Price low base，So recent high-end product volume of statistics of house prices rise on big effect，And in fact the high-end buildings and the price compared and no improvement，Even a little discount。

　　第二，市场整体库存仍然维持高位。10月前后的庞大新推盘降低房价压力。根据国泰君安的统计，现阶段15个主流城市平均可售量同比上升幅度为25%，相比2010年4月低点上升76%，市场库存仍然维持高位，高库存压力下努力销售去化回笼资金仍是现阶段地产商的主要任务。另外从新开工历史数据和行业历来推盘规律分析，今年10月前后市场将迎来一轮推盘高峰，届时在激烈的竞争压力下，房价的压力会逐步下降。

The second，The overall stock market still remains high。10 months before and after the PangDaXin push set pressure lower prices。According to the statistics of hand to cathay Pacific airways，At present 15 mainstream city average amount can be sold year-on-year rate of 25%，Compared with 2010 April low rise 76%，Stock market still remains high，High inventory pressure to change to sales of receivables are still at present stage is the main task of the developers。Another new start history data and industry has always pushed dish law is analyzed，October this year before and after the market will have a push dish peak，At the appointed time in fierce competition under pressure，House prices will drop gradually pressure。

　　第三，差别化信贷条件下历来房价上涨的最大推手房价正向循环已不存在。在投资性需求可以享受高银行杠杆时，投资偏好一旦形成趋势具有正反馈效应，但在目前差别化信贷条件下，即使不考虑限购的因素，投资性需求的杠杆运用能力也被大大削减，房地产投资的吸引力因而明显降低。

The third，Differentiation under the condition of credit has been the biggest push prices rising house prices have positive cycle does not exist。In the investment demand can enjoy high bank lever，Investment preferences once formed trend has the positive feedback effect，But in the current credit conditions menas，Even if you take 限购 factors，The ability to use leverage the investment demand also be greatly reduced，The appeal of real estate investment and reduced significantly。

　　第四，政府仍有诸多手段限制价格上涨幅度。如果在未来房价出现持续上涨，政府可能启动的行政手段包括：（1）启动地方房价问责制，其结果是高端楼盘获得预售证的可能性大大降低，至少统计上出现房价上涨的结构性因素大大减少，减少涨价预期；（2）直接通过临时性喊话扭转涨价预期；（3）地方政府重新祭出限价政策，由于中小地产商资金链普遍偏紧，对去化有较高要求，限价政策可以取得不错效果。

The fourth，The government still has many means limit prices。If prices continue to rise in the future there，The government may start administrative measures including：（1）House prices start place accountability system，The result is a high-end buildings get opens to booking the possibility of card is reduced greatly，At least appear on the statistical prices structural factors is greatly reduced，Reduce prices expected；（2）Directly through the temporary propaganda reverse prices expected；（3）Local governments to offering a price policy，Due to the small and medium-sized developers capital chain slant generally tight，Go to the higher demand，Price policy can get good effect。

　　第五，单从北京万柳地王现象并不能说明地产商信心恢复。（1）从总量上讲2012年上半年土地出让收入同比减少27.5%，土地市场仍处于较为冷清的阶段；（2）目前土地成交溢价率上升基本是一二线城市，尤其是一线城市为主，北京、上海作为国际性大都市，具备无与伦比的人口和资源吸引优势，部分地块的确具备不可复制的资源优势，是开发商资金回流加快后拿地的首选区域，一线城市土地的成交活跃并不代表整个市场；（3）最为先行和反映地产商投资信心的新开工指标持续下探，6月单月同比下滑达到16.3%，因此，房地产投资下半年持续低迷的可能性很大。

The fifth，Only from the Beijing wanliu royal phenomenon and cannot show developers confidence to return。（1）The total amount speak in the first half of 2012 compared to the land transfer income reduced by 27.5%，The land market is still in the stage of a cold and cheerless；（2）At present the land deal is a premium rate rise basic second city，Especially a city to give priority to，Beijing、Shanghai as an international metropolis，Have the incomparable population and resources attract advantage，Part of the plot really have duplicated advantages in resources，Is money after backflow speed up with developers to first choice of area，A line of urban land doesn't mean the entire market clinch a deal active；（3）Most first and reflect the developers of new construction investment confidence index have been spiraling down，June fell to 16.3% year-on-year monthly performance，so，The second half of the real estate investment remain low possibility is very large。

　　中长期地产行业将 Long-term real estate industry will be

　　回归平稳增长态势 Return to steady growth situation

　　一般来说，一个中长期内的房地产牛市必定是中期内需求大于供给造成供给相对紧张、适龄购房人口的快速增加和持续的城镇化等因素单独或者共同作用造成，同时来源于居民财富配置的投资性需求会放大地产牛/熊市切换间的周期性波动。综合未来以上因素的变化趋势，笔者认为未来我国房地产市场将回归平稳增长态势。

Generally speaking，A long-term real estate in the bull market must be greater than supply demand during the supply caused by relatively nervous、The rapid increase of the population that buys a house and rapid urbanization factors alone or in common function to cause，At the same time from the configuration of the wealth of the investment demand residents will magnify real estate ox/bear market between the switch cyclical volatility。Comprehensive future trend of the above factors，The author thinks that the Chinese real estate market will return to steady growth situation。

　　（一）中期内供需结构（中性） （a）During the period of supply and demand structure（neutral）

　　1998年房改所形成的制度红利造成的中期内供给紧张，是过去十年地产牛市的启动因素。以1998年国务院出台《国务院关于进一步深化城镇住房制度改革加快住房建设的通知》为标志，中国进入住房商品化时代，中央推出的一系列商品房制度建设和改革包括预售制度、土地招拍挂制度等，创造了一个市场化的房地产行业。被福利分房制度压制了数十年的我国居民的住房需求从此开始全面觉醒，意味着已经累积了相当长时间的居民财富在短期内会在房地产市场上出现井喷式的释放，而地产供给在中短期内是缺乏弹性的，因而行业中期供给相对紧张局面开始形成，客观上这也是房价上涨初期最重要的推动力量之一。

1998 room changes by the formation of the system by the supply of bonus period of tension，Over the past ten years real estate is the start of the bull market factors。In 1998, the state council issued《The state council on further deepening town housing system reform of the housing construction notice》To mark，China enter housing commercialization era，The central launched a series of commodity house opens to booking system construction and reform including system、Land action pat hang system, etc，To create a market of real estate industry。The welfare system is devote suppression of decades of residents in our country from the housing needs of started full awakening，Means that have accumulated quite a long time residents of wealth in the short term in the real estate market will appear on the release of the blowout type，And real estate supply is lack of flexibility in in the near，So the middle industry supply relative tensions begin to form，This is also the early objectively prices of one of the most important driving force。

　　供需结构在中期内出现的重大变化通常是由重大的制度变革所引起，随着地产行业政策规范化和市场化，而制度重大变革造成的供需结构变化在未来出现的可能并不大。

Supply and demand structure in the medium term is usually appear the significant changes by major system caused by change，As real estate industry policy and market standardization，And major change of demand and supply system caused by changes in the structure of the may arise in the future is not big。

　（二）适龄购房人口的增加（中性） （two）The increase of the population that buys a house（neutral）

　　适龄购房人口的快速增加是过去十年地产牛市的支撑性因素。适龄购房人口是地产需求的直接来源，而过去十年我国适龄购房人口呈现快速增长态势，一个重要的指标就是在进入2000年后我国结婚人数的迅速增加，由于始于1981年的小婴儿潮在进入21世纪后开始进入适婚年龄，中国的结婚率（年结婚人数/总人口）从2002年的1.235%快速上升至2010年的1.851%，在传统的买房结婚观念下，结婚率上升意味着庞大的房地产刚性需求的释放。

The rapid increase of the population that buys a house is in the past ten years real estate supportive factors bull market。School-age population that buy a house is the direct source of the real estate needs，And in the last ten years that our country population presents the fast growth situation that buy a house，An important index is in our country after 2000 into the rapid increase in the number of married，Because began in 1981, the little baby boom in 21 century began to enter the best age to get married，China's marriage（Years marry number/population）From 2002 years of rapidly rising 1.235% to 1.851% in 2010，In the traditional wedding idea to buy a house，Marriage means huge estate rise the release of rigid demand。

　　始于1981-1991年小婴儿潮的人口红利在未来将逐渐褪去，事实上从2010年开始我国的结婚率指标的增长就已经开始逐渐放缓，这对未来地产需求的增长会造成一定不利影响。但另一方面，我国家庭小型化趋势仍将持续，目前我国的户均人数为 3.04人左右，而日本05年和美国08年该指标分别为2.55人和2.67人。具体到美国户均人口的历史变化趋势来看，户均人数在2.8-3.5区间内变化最为剧烈，所以中国家庭小型化的趋势在未来仍将持续。综合两方面的因素我们对未来适龄购房人口的变化趋势做出中性评价。

Started in 1981-1991 small baby boom demographic dividend in the future will be faded，In fact in China from 2010 to and the marriage of growth index began is slowing，The future real estate the growth of demand will cause some negative effects。But on the other hand，Our country family trends will continue miniaturization，In China, the number of worth 3.04 people or so，And Japan in-and the United States in the index were 2.55 and 2.67。Specific to the United States worth population historical changes of the trend，The number of worth in 2.8-3.5 range most violent changes，So the Chinese family in the future trend of miniaturization will continue。Comprehensive two factors: the future for our purchase school-age population change trends neutral evaluation。

　　（三）快速城镇化因素（中性偏多） （three）Rapid urbanization factors（Neutral partial more）

　　城镇化是普遍认同的中国房地产市场需求的最大推动力量。2001-2011年间年均1.4%的城镇化率增加旷古烁今，结合城镇人口的自然增长它意味着年均超过600万套的住房需求，这是中国房地产市场最大的需求推动力量。

The urbanization is the common recognition of China's real estate market of the biggest impetus。2001-2011 with an average annual 1.4% of urbanization rate increase throughout this experience，Urban population natural growth it means more than 6 million sets of annual housing needs，This is China's real estate market of the biggest push power demand。

　　未来城市化率将呈现减速上升态势，给予中性偏多评价。城市化率不会无休止增长，未来的增速也不会是过去历史的简单平均和回归，基于两方面的理由我们判断中国将维持较快城市化率的进程，但其速度将逐渐放缓。

The future urbanization rate will present slow the rise，Give neutral partial evaluation。Urbanization rate won't endless growth，The rate of growth of the future is not the past history of simple average and regression，Based on two aspects of the reason we judge of China will sustain faster urbanization rate of progress，But its speed is slowing。

　　结构上看我国二三线城市还有相当的城市化率向上空间。笔者选取了部分一、二、三线城市2007-2009年的城市化率情况进行了测算，结果显示，我国一线城市城市化率水平在2009年就已经超过了87.8%，未来上升空间已较小；而二线城市和三线城市在2009年末的城市化率水平分别为61.62%和59.2%，对比一线城市87.8%的水平，未来仍有相当的上升空间。总体上看大国经济在城市化率超过50%后，城市化速度开始放缓。综合比较美日法韩等国的情况，当城市化率超过50%之后，大国城市化率速度开始放缓（如美国），城市化率速度的绝对值也较低（如美、日）；而小国的城市化率速度得到保持（如韩国），甚至会持续到城市化率超过70%之后。中国是典型的大国经济，2011年末城市化率已经超过50%，加上未来土地财政模式的改革，通过征用农民土地使其“被动城市化”的情形会逐渐减少，城市化率速度放缓是必然趋势。

The structure our country two three line city of urbanization rate up there have also been a space。The author selected the part a、two、Three city 2007-2009 urbanization rate on the measure，The results show，A line in China city urbanization rate level in 2009 to more than 87.8%，Rising future space already small；And second city and three lines in the city at the end of 2009 the level of urbanization rate to 61.62% and 59.2%, respectively，Contrast the 87.8% level in selected cities，The future of space, there are still rising。On the whole country economy in urbanization rate of more than 50%，Urbanization rate began to slow。Comprehensive comparison method in countries such as South Korea and Japan，When urbanization rate after more than 50%，Big country urbanization rate speed is beginning to slow（Such as the United States），Urbanization rate the absolute value of the speed is also lower（Such as beauty、th）；And small country of urbanization rate speed maintained（Such as South Korea），Even will continue into the urbanization rate after more than 70%。China is the typical big country economy，By the end of 2011 urbanization rate has exceeded 50%，Add the future financial reform in the pattern of land，Through the requisition of land that the farmers“Passive urbanization”The situation will gradually decrease，Urbanization rate slowed is an inevitable trend。

　　（四）投资性需求因素（中性偏空） （four）The investment demand factors（Neutral partial empty）

　　富裕阶层资产配置向房地产的流动是2005年后地产牛市的重要推动力量之一，也是2005年后房价暴增的主因。在2001年加入WTO后，我国富裕阶层开始逐渐壮大。国内投资渠道受限严重，资产配置需求旺盛，使得房地产的金融属性变得越来越强。同时伴随着2007年中期以后工业企业利润的拐点开始向下，结合2008年中央政府应对金融危机进行的流动性释放，大量民营资本开始流入非实体经济，房地产需求和流动性的关系开始发生质变。

Wealthy class to the flow of the real estate asset allocation is 2005 years later the real estate the bull market is one of important motive force，2005 years is the main reason of the house prices soared。In 2001 to join the WTO，Rich people in China gradually began to grow。Domestic investment channels limited serious，Asset allocation demand，Made of real estate finance attribute is becoming more and more strong。At the same time with the mid 2007 industrial enterprise profits after the inflection point start down，Combined with the central government in 2008 to deal with the financial crisis release of liquidity，A large private capital flows into the real economy began，Real estate requirements and the mobility of relationship began to happen the qualitative change。

　　虽然中短期内“两限”政策仍将持续并挤出大部分投资性需求，但长期来看投资性需求仍是总需求的有效组成部分之一，给予中性偏空评价。虽然在中短期内“两限”政策几乎没有退出可能，但在目前经济下滑的大背景下，在稳经济中的重要性也日益凸显，这就意味着政策持续加码的可能性也已经极小，虽然投资性需求在行政性的两限的压制下仍然没有释放的可能，但是最重要的预期和信心已经开始缓慢修复。从长期来看，调控的目的并不是也不可能完全消除房地产的投资属性，调控的真正目的是改变由投资性需求主导市场造成房价无休止上涨的局面。从这个意义上讲，长期来看当房地产市场回归平稳后，房地产的投资性需求仍将是房地产有效需求中稳定的贡献力量。

Although in the near“Two limit”Policy will continue and extrusion most investment demand，But in the long term investment demand total demand is still one of the effective component，Give neutral partial empty evaluation。Although in in the near future“Two limit”Almost no exit policy may，But in the current economic downturn of the big background，In the stability of economic importance is increasingly prominent，This means that policy for the possibility of lotto have also been minimal，Although the investment demand in the administrative two limit still not release under the pressure of may，But the most important expected and confidence has begun to slow repair。In the long run，The purpose of the regulation and not also not be completely eliminate real estate investment properties，The real purpose of control is to change the investment demand caused by leading market prices to the rise of the endless situation。In this sense，In the long run when the real estate market return after smoothly，Real estate investment demand real estate will still be effective demand the stability of the contribution strength。

　　（作者系国泰君安研究所房地产行业研究员）

（The author is the real estate industry, cathay Pacific hand researcher）