地王魔咒未解

Royal spell not solutions

　　杜丽娟

DuLiJuan

　　7月10日，备受关注的万柳地块竞拍终于尘埃落定。中赫力压群雄以26.3亿元将其收入囊中，成为地王。

July 10,，Of concern wanliu plot dust settles auction finally。HeLi pressure in league with 2.63 billion yuan will be its income bursa，Become king。

　　值得注意的是，2009年以来，全国19个入市地王的总销售业绩并未收回土地出让金，“如果剔除其中销售比较好的金茂府等项目，地王项目的销售业绩非常惨淡。”中原地产分析师张大伟表示。作为新贵地王的万柳地块，其后市销售价格又会对市场产生的影响，在政策尚未放松的前提下，其保障房项目的配建指标能否突破地王项目销售惨淡的怪圈。

Note the，Since 2009，19 a total sales market you did not take the land grant fee，“If eliminate one better JinMaoFu sales and other projects，You project sales very bleak。”ZhangDaWei centaline property analysts said。News of the plot as king there，After sales price for the city and the influence of the market，In the policy has not yet relaxed premise，The security of the project can PeiJian index room breakthrough projects of the vicious circle of sales is pale star。

　　催高区域房价 Push the high regional housing prices

　　“和以前地王有央企创造不同的是，目前市场正处于政策敏感期，前段时间多部委集体辟谣及温总理的讲话都表明政府对于楼市调控的决心。此时央企拿地王或并不合时宜。”链家地产市场部陈雪告诉记者，而自2010年央企连拿3个地王后，政府对于央企的控制也更加严格。

“And before you have scholars from renmin creating different is，Now the market is in an policy sensitive period，Some time ago to many ministries to dampen and premier wen's collective talk show that the government for the determination of the property market regulation。At this time with you or not scholars from renmin seasonable。”Real estate marketing chain home ChenXue told reporters，And since 2010, even take three to scholars from renmin queen，The government for scholars from renmin control also more strict。

　　根据北京最新的普通住宅认定标准计算（四环内北部地区达到38880元/平方米）万柳区域商品房的售价是明显超过这一标准的。也就是说，万柳区域的绝大部分在售或将售物业都是非普通住宅。

According to the Beijing the latest average house recognized standard calculation（In the fourth ring road in the northern region reached 38880 yuan/square metre）The price of commercial housing area there is obviously more than the standard。That is，There most of the area will be sold or sold in the property is average house。

　　伟业我爱我家(博客,微博)集团副总裁胡景晖分析表示，万柳地块位置稀缺，区域高端社区氛围成熟，周边普通二手房均价已达5万~6万元/平方米，中高档社区均价已高达8万~9万元/平方米，所以，如果没有政府干预，完全按照市场化流程运作，即使每平方米5万~6万元的楼面地价，7万~10万元的最终售价，也不离谱，开发商不仅不愁卖不出去，而且仍有较可观的利润空间。

Cause I love my family(blog,Micro bo)The vice President HuJingHui analysis group said，Wanliu plot position scarce，Regional high-end environment for the community mature，Peripheral ordinary secondhand the room all valence has reached 50000-60000 yuan/square metre，Upscale community has up to 80000-90000 average yuan/square metre，so，If no government intervention，In full accordance with the marketization process operation，Even if every square metre 50000 ~ 60000 yuan floor price，70000 ~ 100000 yuan eventually sold，Also not unusual，Developers don't worry about not only don't sell，And still have a substantial profits space。

　　但是，胡景晖表示，在目前房地产调控的敏感时期，高价地王的出现无疑让人们联想到2010年3月15日几块地王接连出现后所引发的房价50%~80%的大幅反弹，以及市场的失控。

but，HuJingHui said，In the present regulation of the real estate sensitive time，The appearance of high star is to make people think on 15 March 2010 for a few pieces of royal triggered by the house prices after an 50% ~ 80% of the rebound sharply，And out of the market。

　　所以，在万柳地块挂牌出让期间，政府采取谨慎态度，比如央企退出地块竞夺，限价竞回购面积等，是政府吸取2010年的教训，对万柳地块及时干预，有效避免了因高价地王诞生而引发的对市场的误导。

so，In the wanliu plot kosovo-born period，The government taking a cautious attitude，Such as scholars from renmin what's happening out plot，Price competition repurchase area, etc，Is the government in 2010 from the lessons，Timely intervention to wanliu plot，Avoid the high effective for you from the birth of market misleading。

　　“新地王的价格确实有些高。”中国房地产学会副会长陈国强告诉记者，这个地块的成交价格高出了很多人的预期，但还不足以说明整个土地市场出现了根本性的变化。

“The price of the new star really some high。”China real estate society vice-chairman Chen guoqiang told reporters，This plot to clinch a deal the price is higher than a lot of people expected，But not enough to explain the whole land market appeared fundamental changes。

　　在陈国强看来，众多企业参与竞拍，说明部分房地产企业对市场依然有信心，但从整体市场来看，依然不能说明市场接下来会反弹。

Chen guoqiang seems in，Many enterprises to participate in the auctions，That part of the real estate market is still confident of enterprise，But from the whole market and see，Still can't explain the market the next will rebound。

　　地王销售惨淡 Royal sales is pale

　　虽然地王再现，却难改土地市场冷清局面。

Although you reproduce，But cannot change cold land market situation。

　　数据显示，截至7月10日，北京年内土地总出让76块，合计土地出让金为171.85亿元，同比去年同期的526.35亿元减少67.4%，年内完成的171.85亿元也仅完成去年全年的1055.4亿元的16.3%。

Data shows，By July 10,，Beijing years the 76 pieces of total land，Combined the land grant fee is 17.185 billion yuan，Compared to the same period last year of 52.635 billion yuan reduce 67.4%，Completed in the year 17.185 billion yuan is finished only last year 16.3% of the 105.54 billion yuan。

　　“而且从目前土地出让计划看，下半年土地市场依然难以明显升温。目前成交复苏的地块属性基本都为商业类地块，此类地块在最近几年并未冷清。而住宅类地块目前来看依然未有明显变化，虽有部分溢价率比较高，但都为一些小地块，住宅类地王目前来看并未出现。”张大伟表示。

“And from the current land transfer plans look，The second half of the land market is still difficult to clear heat up。At present the revival of the basic plot attribute clinch a deal for business class plot，Such plot in recent years did not cold and cheerless。And the residence kind of plot so far is still not obviously change，Although there are parts of the premium rate is quite high，But for a few small plots，Royal residence kind at present to see did not appear。”ZhangDaWei said。

　　事实上，今年以来，北京市场的优质地块，特别是优质住宅类地块仅出让了9块，其中除个别位置较好外，其他都为远郊区地块，热点成交区域的地块少，“土地市场的冷清主要是供应地块结构变化而导致。

In fact，Since this year，Beijing market of quality plot，Especially the high quality of the house only nine piece of land，In addition to the individual good position of outside，According to other plots，Clinch a deal the plot less hot area，“Of land market of cold and cheerless is mainly supply plot structure change and cause。

　　虽然3月开始成交有所复苏，但是大部分开发商的库存积压严重，而且在没有优质地块的情况下，入市的积极性不高，整体市场的资金面虽然有所好转，但土地价格未明显下调的情况下，开发商对未来的房价预期不高，所以拿地的积极性不大。”张大伟分析。

Although march began to clinch a deal to recovery，But most developers inventory serious，And in no quality of the plot，The enthusiasm of the entry is not high，The overall market financing side although better，But the land price is not clear cut，Developers for future prices are expected to is not high，So take the enthusiasm is not big。”ZhangDaWei analysis。

　　此外，中原地产数据显示，2009年以来19个入市地王的总销售业绩都没有收回土地出让金。19个项目中，截止到目前的销售额为446.46亿元，合计总土地出让金则达到了468.76亿元。也就是说，因为楼市调控导致的销售市场萧条，“19个地王项目合计的销售额还未将土地出让金回本，而如果剔除其中销售比较好的金茂府等项目，地王项目的销售业绩非常惨淡”。

In addition，The real estate data shows，Since 2009 the royal city 19 total sales performance figures are did not take back the land grant fee。19 project，Up to present sales for 44.646 billion yuan，Total aggregate of land sell one's own things is to reach 46.876 billion yuan。That is，Because the property market regulation in the depressed market sales，“19 royal project total sales are not the land grant fee will be back to this，And if eliminate one better JinMaoFu sales and other projects，You project sales very bleak”。

　　目前来看，土地市场的高溢价率仍属于个别现象，而且都是一些非住宅类的小地块，这种情况下，对北京来说，万柳地块高价竞拍似乎也合乎常理。从以往的数据来看，北京市每年用于土地开发的资金大约为1000亿元，这笔资金都是三至五年的银行短期贷款，如果不能尽快卖出，政府的资金压力就会很大。

So far，Land market high premium rates still belongs to individual phenomenon，And it is some kind of small plot as regards，This case，For Beijing，There also seems to bid high plot make sense。From the previous data to see，Beijing every year for land development funds for about 100 billion yuan，The money is three to five years of bank short-term loans，If you can't sell as soon as possible，The government's money pressure will be very big。