【《财经》(博客,微博)综合报道】 【《financial》(blog,Micro bo)Comprehensive report】

　　据证券时报网消息，瑞士信贷董事总经理、亚洲区首席经济学分析师陶冬8月8日在“2012年度券商创新论坛暨颁奖盛典”中表示，中国房价有泡沫，但不代表明天泡沫就破灭，未来几年房地产会出现更大的调整。

According to securities times nets news，Credit suisse director general manager、Asia area chief economics analysts TaoDong August 8 in“2012 annual brokers innovation BBS and trophy”Said in a，China's housing price bubble，But do not represent the bubble burst tomorrow，The next few years will be more real estate adjustment。

　　他说，“中国房价有没有泡沫？我认为有，今天上海房价已经贴近了东京的房价水平，而上海人的收入只有东京收入的1/5，海南岛如果能把所有房子库存按照今天房价卖出去，再加上开发商们18万亩地的囤积全部建起房子按今天价格卖出去，海南岛可以收上来的钱足够买下一个小岛，一个叫做曼哈顿的小岛。如果这都不叫泡沫，什么叫泡沫？”

He said，“China's house prices have a bubble？I think there is，Shanghai house prices have already been close to today the Tokyo house prices level，And in spite of the income, only 1/5 of the income of Tokyo，Hainan island if all house prices according to sell stock today，Plus the developers of 180000 mu of land hoarding at today's prices all built house sold，Hainan island can receive the money enough to buy up a small island，One is called Manhattan island。If this is not that bubble，What is called a bubble？”

　　陶冬指出，“但是有泡沫不代表明天泡沫就破灭，我看中国泡沫破灭需要三大因素：1。货币环境正常化必须坚持下去；2。中国的贸易顺差是要大幅度的减少，这已经开始了，但是需要一定的时间；3。美国的QE需要推出，这早晚会做，但不是今天做，把这三个要素全部加在一起，我认为三、四年后，时机并不重要，中国的房地产会出现一次比现在大的多的调整。”

TaoDong points out that，“But with foam does not represent the bubble burst tomorrow，I see China's bubble need three factors：1。The normalization of monetary conditions had to go on；2。China's trade surplus is to greatly reduce，It had already started，But it will take time；3。The United States needs to launch the QE，The early evening party do，But not do it today，The three elements all together，I think three、Four years later，Time is not important，China's real estate will be a much more than now adjustment。”