“以前炒房时的经纪人打电话过来，说有大差价可以拿。被他一说，我就想还是去看看吧。”2010年“逃出”上海楼市的温州投资客林宏（化名），在2012年重新出山了。

“ChaoFang before the agent call，A big price difference can take said。Was he said，I just want to still go to see。”2010 years“escape”Shanghai property market of the wenzhou investment guest y.s. ho（aliases），In 2012 be reinstated。

　　在炒房客圈子里，林宏属于激进派，2009年下半年曾出手买了好几套房，随即遭遇政策调控，被高位套牢，损失超过两成，“炒房炒成了房东”。

Fry the tenant in circles，Y.s. ho, belong to the radicals，The second half of 2009 shots had bought several suite，Immediately encounter policy adjustment，Is high over，Loss of over twenty percent，“ChaoFang fry became the landlord”。

　　楼市经纪人频繁地在各个楼盘跳槽，核心资源就是合作了多年的炒房客。“这个经纪人跟我合作了6年，她卖的每个楼盘我都买过房子。”林宏说。经纪人承诺，这个上海楼盘可以给炒房团打7折，并保证1年内将价格涨回去。

Housing agent frequently in each building dish of jumping ship，The core resource is the cooperation years of Fried tenants。“The agent cooperation with me for six years，She sells every building dish I bought a house。”Y.s. ho said。Agent promised，The Shanghai building dish can give ChaoFang group play 7 fold，1 years and ensure that prices will go back。

　　与此同时，2012年上半年，全国各地“地王”纷出，这又意味着什么？

At the same time，In the first half of 2012，All over the country“royal”Surge out，What does that mean？

　　

炒房客卷土重来 Fry the tenant to come back

　　2012年春节后，就不断有朋友去“抄底”。林宏说：“深圳一个楼盘宣布自开盘之日起逐月涨价，保证12个月内房价上涨幅度超过6%的贷款年利率，吸引了不少温州客。”

2012 years after the Spring Festival，It continued to friends“Copy the”。Y.s. ho said：“Shenzhen a building since the date of opening announced price from month to month，Ensure that 12 months house prices have risen by more than 6% of the loan interest rate，To attract a lot of wenzhou guest。”

　　6月份以来，投资客一次买下一整层住宅的消息也不少见，“香港和台湾的投资客这次也很活跃，大手笔投资和，出手阔绰，毫不犹豫。就跟2007年限外令推出前一样。”林宏说。

Since June，Investors were a buy a whole layer of news also see a lot of house，“Hong Kong and Taiwan's investment guest this is also very active，Large investments and，big-spending，Not hesitate。Like the 2007 fixed number of year to launch the same as before。”Y.s. ho said。

　　现在看来，那一批“抄底”的投资客收获颇丰。林宏几个亲戚曾在上海楼市降价声最响的时候入市，投资的楼盘包括嘉定的路劲翡丽湾和宝山区的保利叶语，目前，这两个楼盘的报价比2月时分别上涨了17%和16%。

Now it seems，That a group of“Copy the”Investment guest schedule。Y.s. ho in Shanghai property market has several relatives price cut the loudest sound when entering the market，Investment buildings of the way of the jiading including li wan fei strength and baoshan district of poly leaves language，At present，The two buildings than two months into the price up 17% and 16% respectively。

　　投资客进场已是业内公开的秘密。2012年7月上半个月，上海新建商品住宅成交43.6万平方米，较6月同期提升7.6%。中高端、大面积产品的热销使上海房价持续维持高位。2012年6月，上海商品住宅成交均价达24070元/平方米，为年内新高；7月前22天商品住宅成交均价进一步上升到24545元/平方米。

Investment approach is the guest has an open secret。In July 2012 on half a month，Shanghai new clinch a deal the commodity residential house of 436000 square meters，A June 7.6% increase to the same period。In high-end、Large area of the product sell like hot cakes that Shanghai house prices continue to maintain high。June 2012，Shanghai commodity residential house in the price of 24070 yuan/square metre，A record high for years；July 22 days before the commodity residential house the price rise further to 24545 yuan/square metre。

　　2012年2月以来，住宅成交总量中，小户型占比持续下降，而超大户型则连续上升。比如，7月9日到15日的一周内，上海单价在5万元/平方米以上的成交51套，环比大涨54.6%；新建成交99套，环比上涨32%。

Since February 2012，House of total clinch a deal，Small family than of continue to decline，And large family for a second straight up。For example，July 9 to 15 days in a week of，Shanghai unit price is in 50000 yuan/square metre of 51 set above clinch a deal，Annulus comparing rose 54.6%；99 sets New Deal，Annulus comparing rose 32%。

　　开发商也顺应了这一趋势。在这一周新增供应的9个项目中，套均面积在140平方米以上的项目有4个，房源预售、报价都低于2万元/平方米的只有2个。

Developers also complies with the trend。In this week of the new supply nine projects，Set in the 140 square meters above all area of the project have four，Homes open to booking、Quotation below 20000 yuan/square metre of only 2。

　　综合公开信息来看，2012年8月，上海约有27个楼盘将开盘或加推房源，其中16个为改善型公寓、10个为、1个为酒店式公寓。其中，改善型公寓面积多为90到150平方米的大户型。

Comprehensive public information and see，August 2012，Shanghai about 27 sites will open quotation or addition push suite，In sixteen to improve the apartment、10 for、1 for apartment hotel。Among them，Improve apartment area more to 150 square meters for 90 of the large family。

　　“业内默契地将现在积极进场的购房者定义为改善型需求，实际上改善型和投资者之间并没有非常明确的区分。”上海某房企销售总经理李耀平告诉《瞭望东方周刊》，“改善型需求购房周期长、决策慢，有些甚至要先卖掉老房子再去付的首付，这样的需求能支撑现在如此密集的供应吗？”

“The tacit understanding will now enter the arena to actively buyers for improving the definition of demand，Actually improve type and investors are not very clear distinction。”Shanghai some room enterprises LiYaoPing told sales manager《Weekly looked out on the east》，“Improve type needs long life cycle that buy a house、Decision slow，Some even to sell before the old house and then go to pay down，This demand can support is now so dense supply？”

　　同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟也告诉本刊记者，近两个月来，投资客在单价4万、10万元以上的中、高端市场上出手的迹象明显。

Strategy consulting research center director with d also told this reporter，Nearly two months，Investment in unit price for 40000、100000 yuan of above、High-end market moves on the obvious signs。

　　他说，在融资压力不减的背景下，部分楼盘以信托投资等形式规避“限购”政策，达成成交实现回笼资金目的。另外还有开发商出于“过桥融资”的目的，短期内批量将房源出售给投资公司，约定在房价反弹后回购，双方按照一定比例分配房地产增值收益。这些公司背后有投资客或投资机构的支持，实际年收益率普遍在10%到15%左右，高的也能达到15%到20%。

He said，In financial pressures don't reduce the background，Part of the building trust and investment and other forms to avoid“限购”policy，Clinch a deal to realize the purpose of receivables。Another of developers“Bridge financing”purpose，The short term batch will sell to investment, expand the company，Agreement in house prices bounce the buyback，According to a certain proportion to the real estate appreciation income。The company behind the investment or the investment institutions for support，The actual return 10% to 15% or so in general，High also can achieve 15% to 20%。

　　单体作战的炒房客，大多将投资目标瞄准在“降价楼盘”上。2011年以来，上海个案楼盘的实际降幅在10%到15%之间，极少量的楼盘真实降幅达20%以上。“只要房价平稳回升到降价前的水平，也意味着丰厚的回报，虽然投资周期会拉长到1到2年。”张宏伟说，6月以来，伴随着楼市成交回暖及地王不断出现，大批曾经“撤退”的投资客在重新筹集资金，持币观望，随时准备进场。

Single combat the Fried tenants，Most investment targets in“Depreciate building dish”on。Since 2011，Shanghai real estate in the case fell by between 10% and 15%，Very few buildings of the real drop of 20% or more。“As long as home prices steady back up to the level before the price，Also means great rewards，Although investment cycle can spin to 1 to 2 years。”D said，Since June of，With the housing market warms up and clinch a deal you appear constantly，Large once“retreat”Investment in the guest to raise funds，Watching the currency，Ready to play。

　　6月份，全国100个城市新建商品住宅成交均价结束了9个月的下跌，环比上涨0.05%，这被很多业内人士视为新一轮楼市上升期开始的信号。

June，The country's 100 city new commodity residential house the price over nine months of decline，Annulus comparing rose 0.05%，This is the personage inside a lot as a new stage of the property market began to signal。

　　

地王为何重现 Why you again

　　自2012年以来，楼市回暖的迹象在多个层面有所加强。

Since 2012，Property market warms up signs on many levels are strengthened。

　　截至2012年7月11日，在已公布上半年销售业绩的37家房企中，有19家标杆房企销售业绩飘红，总计实现销售金额约5700亿元。

By the end of 2012 on July 11,，In the first half have released the sales performance of 37 house room in enterprises，19 home sales performance benchmarking room enterprises turn red，The sales amount total about 570 billion yuan。

　　6月，销售金额和销售面积均创历史新高，销售金额达155.15亿元，同比增长36.65%；万科实现销售面积122.4万平方米，销售金额133.2亿元；签约金额约45亿元，环比5月增长50%，创单月新高。

June，Sales amount and sales area of new highs，Sales value of RMB 15.515 billion，Year-on-year growth of 36.65%；China vanke sales area of 1.224 million square meters，Sales of 13.32 billion yuan；Signing amount about 4.5 billion yuan，Annulus comparing may increase of 50%，And the biggest highs。

　　绿地集团董事长、总裁张玉良在接受《瞭望东方周刊》专访时透露，2012年上半年，绿地集团业务原本的目标是销售额、利润增幅“保2争3”（增幅确保为20%，争取达到30%），但春节后销售面积和金额即出现出人意料的大幅增长，以致绿地将下半年的目标调整为“保3争4”，即销售额争取达到2600亿元，利润争取达到120亿元。

President of group of green space、President ZhangYuLiang in accept《Weekly looked out on the east》Interview revealed，In the first half of 2012，Green is the goal of the original group business sales、Profit growth“For the 2 3”（To ensure that 20% growth，Fight for up to 30%），But after the Spring Festival, sales area and the amount that is a sharp increase in surprise，So that green space in the second half of the year will be adjusted for the goal“For the 3 4”，That is for sales reached 260 billion yuan，For profit to 12 billion yuan。

　　“前几年限购等政策只是没办法的办法，现在调控已经取得相当成果了，再延续原先的办法就不适宜了，未来限制投资可能更多采用市场化的办法，如用征收税等方式慢慢取代严厉的政策限制。”张玉良说。

“Before a few years 限购 etc policy just have no choice，Now has made quite the results regulation，Continue to the original for，The future may be more limited investment by the way to the market，If use tax collection methods such as severe restrictions slowly replaced。”ZhangYuLiang said。

　　土地市场，地王重新频出刺激着人们的神经。

Land market，You PinChu again to stimulate the nerve of the people。

　　7月10日，在10次网上报价、46轮现场竞价，以及327轮回购房面积竞报后，中赫集团以26.3亿元的最高上限价格拿下海淀区万柳居住用地。为了获得久违的“地王”，中赫集团还需要配建16400平方米的回购房，而出让文件规定，回购房房价只有1万元/平方米。剔除回购费因素，该地块楼板价约4.42万元/平方米，再创全国单价地王的纪录。

July 10,，In the 10 times quotes online、46 the bidding round，And the 327 race for the area that buy a rebirth，With 2.63 billion yuan of Hector group limit price scored haidian district residence land there。In order to obtain have long time no see“royal”，The group also need to PeiJian hertha in 16400 square meters of back to the house，And transfer documents regulations，Back to purchase prices only 10000 yuan/square metre。Eliminate the buyback cost factors，This plot floor price of about 44200 yuan/square metre，The unit price of the star again record。

　　北京挂牌出让居住用地时一般都明确规定，在报价达到合理土地上限价格后，竞买人现场投报公配建面积。

Beijing kosovo-born habitable land generally when specified，In the price to rationally land after cap price，The bidders for PeiJian area for the male。

　　万柳地王并不是个例。4月，北京东城区香河园3号居住及商业金融用地经过40轮争夺终以19.15亿元成交，并以2.57万元/平方米的单价成为单价地王。6月18日，广州珠江新城地块以13.22亿元交易总价成为广州新地王，起始价约4.9亿元。7月17日，北京再次出让5宗地块，其中2宗溢价率超过45%。

There is not a star alone。April，Beijing dongcheng district no. 3 and live in xianghe garden of business financial land after 40 rounds for the end of 1.915 billion yuan transactions，And with 25700 yuan/square metre of the unit price be star unit price。June 18,，Guangzhou pearl river new town with 1.322 billion yuan trading price plot become guangzhou new royal，The starting price of about 490 million yuan。July 17,，Beijing the 5 cases of land again，Among them, 2 cases of premium rate of more than 45%。

　　某研究院的报告则显示，二季度，全国100个重点城市居住用地楼面均价为1474元/平方米，同比上涨18.6%。包括北上广深的十大城市住宅用地平均楼面价格为2904元/平方米，环比大幅上涨43.9%。

A institute report is displayed，In the second quarter of，The national 100 key city residential land floor price for 1474 yuan/square metre，Rose 18.6% year-on-year。Including north of guangshen ten cities housing land floor price for 2904 yuan on average/square metre，Annulus comparing 43.9% rise sharply。

　　以上海为例，2012年1到5月，上海土地市场合计出让的经营性住宅用地（除动迁安置用地）为20幅，合计出让金额67.5亿元，平均楼板价达3882元/平方米。而6月到7月25日，上海已成功出让22幅经营性用地，出让金额达到83.18亿元，平均楼板价超出6500元/平方米。

Taking Shanghai as an example，2012 1 to 5 months，Shanghai land market of the assignment of total business housing land（In addition to resettlement for land use）For 20 of，The total amount of 6.75 billion yuan，Average floor price of 3882 yuan/square metre。And June to July 25，Shanghai has success of the 22 business land，The amount of 8.318 billion yuan，Average floor price is beyond 6500 yuan/square metre。

　　21世纪不动产上海区域分析师黄河滔告诉本刊记者，上半年上海整体推地量下滑，结构也以商办和工业地块为主。成交的209幅地块中，居住用地（包括普通商品房、商住办、商住、城镇混合）只有9幅，工业用地147幅，商办用地26幅。

21 real estate Shanghai area HuangHeTao analysts told this reporter，In the first half to push down the whole Shanghai amount，Structure and industrial plot sometime also give priority to。The 209 of land to clinch a deal，Habitable land（Including common commodity house、Do business、commercial、Town mixed）Only nine of，Industrial land of 147，For purpose of 26。

　　下半年，多地政府改变策略，将推出的地块划分得很小以控制地块总价，让开发商也更容易接受，同时调低定价以防止流拍并获得一定溢价率，配合营造土地市场回暖的迹象。

The second half，Many government to change strategy，The plot will be introduced into very small plots to control the total price，Let developers are also more likely to accept，At the same time to prevent the flow down pricing clap and access to certain premium rate，Cooperate with construction land market warms up signs。

　　李耀平说，这么做也有缺陷：地块太小，开发商腾挪余地就小，利润空间有限，所以这也只能作为目前催热市场的过渡手段，但帮助市场逐步恢复信心的效果已经达到了。

LiYaoPing said，So do have drawbacks：Plot is too small，Developers move STH room is small，Profit space is limited，So it also urged the hot market at present only as the transition of the method，But help market has gradually restore confidence effects have been achieved。

　　

地王潮真的来了吗 Royal boom here

　　土地市场也许没有想象的那么热火朝天。上海业内人士一度将唐镇新市镇A-03-11住宅地块的拍卖结果作为土地市场的风向标。

The land market may not have imagination of so buzz。Shanghai industry insiders once will don town A- 11 new residential plot of land market of the auction results as vane。

　　7月25日，绿顺以16.44亿元夺得浦东新区唐镇新市镇A-03-11住宅地块，溢价率37%，楼板价约为15054元/平方米。

July 25,，The green with 1.644 billion yuan of pudong new area tang town won new town A- 11 residential plot，Premium rate 37%，Floor price of about 15054 yuan/square metre。

　　此次竞标中，该地块起始总价约为12亿元，折合楼板价为11000元/平方米。实际上，该地块在2011年12月曾挂牌出让过一次，当时的土地起始总价为15.83亿元，起始楼板价14500元/平方米。

In a bid to the，This plot starting price about 1.2 billion yuan，Into the floor price for 11000 yuan/square metre。In fact，This plot in December 2011 was once kosovo-born，The land was starting, amounting to $1.583 billion，Starting floor price 14500 yuan/square metre。

　　也就是说，此次拍卖的高溢价，很大程度上是由于调低起始价而来的。

That is，The auction of high premium，Largely due to price lower initial。

　　唐镇地块的最终拍卖结果也说明，开发商的积极性虽有恢复，但态度依旧谨慎。唐镇板块2011年前还出让过2幅普通商品房用地，溢价均在100%以上，其中绿城以16.6亿元摘得的浦东新区唐镇新市镇C-1-1a、C-1-5a地块就紧邻本次出让的地块。

Tang town at the end of the land auction results also showed，The enthusiasm of the developers though a recovery，But still cautious attitude。Tang town plate 2011 years ago the 2 picture is common commodity house sites，Premium were above 100%，With 1.66 billion yuan of green city on the tang town pudong new area, winner of the new town C-1-1 a、C-1-5 a plot of the assignment of the next block。

　　这不是孤立的个案。7月18日，宁波慈溪两宗2011年底因无人竞拍而流拍的土地成交，不过此次拍卖的成交价却只相当于上次拍卖时起始价的7.14折。同样的例子还有宁波鄞州区下应街道的鄞州投资创业中心II-3-C地块，在2011年4月和7月，该地块两度流拍，最终7月5日被万科拿下，但价格只有首次挂牌时的近7折。

This is not isolated cases。July 18,，Ningbo cixi two of the end of 2011 because no one bid and flow of the land take a deal，But the auction clinch a deal price but only last time when starting price is equivalent to the auction of the 7.14 fold。The same example and ningbo yinzhou area should be under the yinzhou investment venture center street II-3-C plot，In April 2011 and July，This plot two-time flow pat，Final on July 5, be vanke scored，But the price for the first time the only listed for nearly seven fold。

　　“和2009年地王频出时不同，企业都很谨慎，对成本和利润的计算很精确，并且严格遵守既定的策略，不愿过于追高。而且很多迷你地块大企业并不愿意做，所以现在的地王不是很有代表性。”李耀平说。

“And in 2009, when king PinChu different，Enterprise are very cautious，The calculation of the cost and profit is very accurate，And abide by established strategies，Don't let too chase high。And a lot of mini plot big enterprise is not willing to do，So now the king is not very typical。”LiYaoPing said。

　　

炒房客的新猎物 Fry the tenant's new prey

　　住宅市场的扑朔迷离，对李石燕的投资影响不大。虽然也是重回楼市的投资者，但她“抄”的却是商业地产的“底”。李石燕说，2011年3月到9月，上海就曾出现过一波商业地产的投资潮，市场最热时的7、8月，商业地产的成交量甚至超过普通住宅，不过，随着银监会叫停未竣工商业地产的按揭贷款，商业地产的炒作也戛然而止，产品也出现了严重的积压。正是看准商业地产困境能创造出比住宅更大的价差，很多原本只炒住宅的投资客如今都被吸引到了这一市场。

The housing market's complicated and confusing，To LiShiYan investment the impact is not big。Though also return to the housing market investors，But she“copy”But the commercial real estate“bottom”。LiShiYan said，In March 2011 to September，Shanghai has been a wave of commercial real estate investment boom，The market of the hottest 7、August，Commercial real estate in the volume of sales even more than average house，but，Along with the banking regulatory commission not to stop the completion of commercial real estate mortgage loan，Commercial real estate speculation also to an abrupt end，The product is in serious backlog。It is certain commercial real estate trouble can create more than housing price，Many only the original investment guest house Fried now are attracted to the market。

　　21世纪不动产提供的数据显示，在上海纳入监测的110个写字楼项目中，2012年5、6月期间，多数出租率在90%以上，仅17个项目出租率在90%以下。

21 real estate to provide the data show，In 110 Shanghai into monitoring office projects，May 2012、June，Most ChuZuLv by more than 90%，Only 17 project ChuZuLv under 90%。

　　21世纪不动产上海锐丰商业楼宇部区域经理朱永锋告诉本刊记者，2008年到2012年，上海写字楼租金始终平稳上涨，唯一出现租金下调的板块还是租金最高的板块。

21 real estate Shanghai sharp abundant in commercial property of the regional manager ZhuYongFeng told this reporter，2008 in 2012 to in，Shanghai office rentals always rose steadily，The only rent the plate or cut in rent the highest plate。

　　戴德梁行的数据显示，2012年上半年，上海写字楼平均租金为269.5元/平方米/月，同比增长13.16%，同时上海的写字楼供应量却下跌了27.74%。

DaiDeLiang done figures show，In the first half of 2012，Shanghai office rent for an average of 269.5 yuan/square metre/month，Year-on-year growth of 13.16%，Meanwhile Shanghai office supply fell 27.74%。

　　“空置的办公楼没有现金流，很难在银行获得贷款，这就为我们创造了抄底的机会，多的能拿到7~8折的折扣。”李石燕说，上海写字楼均价从2010年一季度到2011年三季度期间，从最初的3.09万元/平方米快速上涨到最高5.37万元/平方米，2011年四季度又猛跌到4.07万元/平方米，到2012年二季度，均价依然只有3.83万元/平方米。“很多人说这是一个双重抄底机会。”

“Empty office buildings no cash flow，It is difficult to obtain loans in the bank，It is for us the opportunity to create the copy，Much can get 7 ~ 8 fold the discount。”LiShiYan said，Shanghai office average from 2010 to 2011, during the first quarter，From the original 30900 yuan/square metre rise rapidly to a maximum 53700 yuan/square metre，2011 in the fourth quarter and slumped to 40700 yuan/square metre，In the second quarter to 2012，All valence is still only 38300 yuan/square metre。“Many people say it is a double copy the opportunity。”

　　投资客的进入，或许也为上海的开发商提供了信心。公开数据显示，2011年4月到2012年4月期间，上海办公楼、商业经营用房开发投资累积同比增速多数月份都是负增长，但在最近两个月，两项增速指标同时出现正增长，2012年6月间分别达到11.1%和27.7%，而同期上海住宅投资增速还只有10.7%。2012年6月，上海居住用地成交3幅，溢价为15.7%到71.4%不等；同期商业用地成交10幅，最高溢价率超过400%。

Investment into the guest，Perhaps for the developer of the Shanghai also provides confidence。Public data shows，From April 2011 to April 2012，Shanghai office building、Business management USES a room development investment year-on-year growth in most accumulated is negative growth，But in the last two months，Two growth index and at the same time there is growth，June 2012 at 11.1% and 27.7% respectively，Over the same period, the Shanghai residential investment growth was only 10.7%。June 2012，Shanghai residence land deal 3 picture，A premium of 15.7% to 71.4% range；In the same period the land for commercial use 10 picture clinch a deal，The highest premium rate of more than 400%。

　　当然，开发商在商业地产领域加强投入，也是投资客看好商业地产的重要原因，因为这意味着更多的投资载体。以绿地集团为例，张玉良就告诉本刊记者，2012年，绿地产品的销售额中，住宅占60%，商业地产占40%，但张玉良的目标是将这个比例颠倒过来，也就是让商业地产的销售额占60%，“这还不包括绿地自己持有的商业物业”。

Of course，Developers in commercial real estate industry to strengthen the investment，Investment is also good for the important reason for the commercial real estate，Because it means more investment vehicles。To green space group for example，ZhangYuLiang told this reporter，2012 years，Green space in the sales of products，Residential 60%，Commercial real estate accounted for 40%，But ZhangYuLiang goal is to the proportion upside down，Also is to make commercial real estate sales accounted for 60%，“It doesn't include the green space by holding commercial property”。