很多人都觉得中国未来城镇化发展非常快，对住房将产生强烈需求，从而可能会推高房价。事实上，中国出生人口数量从上个世纪90年初就已开始下降。1996年，全国小学一年级入学人数2500万，到了2005年则下降到了1600多万。从小学一年级入学人数来看，中国出生人口已出现大幅度下降。

Many people feel that China's future urbanization development very fast，Strong demand for housing will produce，Thus may push up prices。In fact，China's birth population Numbers from the last century in early 90 has started to decline。1996 years，The national grade 1 25 million enrollment，In 2005, dropped to more than 1600。Since grade 1 enrollment and see，China's birth population has appeared drop dramatically。

　　其实，农村青壮年也早已被城市化。年龄在20到40岁的人群中，生活在农村里的比例非常低。据国家统计局发布数据，2010年底中国大陆人口为13.39亿，其中0~14岁儿童人口为2.22亿，占总人口的16.6%。全世界儿童人数18.63亿，中国0~14岁儿童占到了世界的11.9％。

In fact，Rural young also has already been urbanization。At the age of 20 to 40 in the crowd，The proportion of the living in the countryside is very low。According to the state statistics bureau data，By the end of 2010 China has a population of 1.339 billion，Where 0 to 14 years old children has a population of 222 million，16.6% of the total population。Children all over the world number 1.863 billion，China 0 ~ 14 years accounted for 11.9% of the world's children。

　　京津地区、长三角、珠三角等地区，未来或许将有很多人口涌入，城市规模也将不断扩大。与此同时，另外一些地区人口将大量流出。国内有一些县城，经过多年的发展之后，人口并没有增加，反倒在减少。

The beijing-tianjin region、Long triangle、The pearl river delta region，The future may have a lot of people coming，And it will continue to expand the size of city。At the same time，Other areas of population will flow out。Domestic some county town，Pass the development for many years later，Population and did not increase，But in reducing。

　　内蒙古康巴什是一座耗资170多亿元打造出来的豪华新城，实际上却是一座无人居住的“鬼城”。这座新城规划得很美好，但是现实却很残酷。一个规划要住100万人口的新城，如今居住人数却不到3万。实际上，中国并非只有鄂尔多斯(600295,股吧)这座“鬼城”，其实非常多。

Inner Mongolia kangba what is a cost of more than 170 yuan to build out of the luxury new town，Actually it's a deserted“ghost”。The new town planning very good，But the reality is cruel。A plan to live 1 million population of the new town，Now there were less than 30000 live。In fact，China is not only the ordos(600295,Shares it)the“ghost”，Actually very much。

　　当年，美国西进运动时，也激发了人们造城的热情。1835年，芝加哥人口是3000人，到了1890年就达到了100万。人口的不断增加，导致地产繁荣，尤其让一些地产商发了横财。比如，大地产商威廉?奥格登，他在1844年花8000美元买下的一块土地，在8年后卖到了300万美元。他在1845年用15000美元买入的地产，20年后升值到1000万美元。这个疯狂的暴涨，从而鼓励人们造城的热情。

That year，American west movement，Also inspires people made the enthusiasm of the city。1835 years，Chicago population is 3000，By 1890 to reach 1 million。The increasing population，Lead to real estate boom，Especially let some property developers hair windfall。For example，Big developers William?Ogden，In 1844 he spent $8000 to buy a piece of land，In eight years sold for $3 million。In 1845 he bought for $15000 in real estate，20 years later appreciation to $10 million。This crazy boom，To encourage people to make the enthusiasm of the city。

　　芝加哥模式不能复制，最终也只能算是少数的幸运儿。美国有很多被认为有机会发展成为大城市的地方，经过多年之后仍然是小镇，甚至被遗弃或被荒芜。比如美国的艾奥瓦一州，有近2000多个城镇被遗弃。

Chicago mode can't reproduce，Finally also can be a few lucky dog。The United States has many is thought to have the opportunity to become the big city place，After many years later is still small town，Even abandoned or be desolate。Such as the United States, one state of Iowa，Nearly 2000 more towns were abandoned。

　　现在，中国到处都在搞政府造城，甚至一些小镇都要立志发展成人口几十万的城市。这样一来，房价和地价很快被炒起来，人们也疯狂地进行抢购。可是有没有人想过，这些小镇有可能与美国的案例一样被抛弃？

now，China's government made up everywhere in the city，Even some small town all must resolve to develop into the population of the hundreds of thousands of city。so，House prices and land price quickly fired up，People also crazy to snap up。But is there any people had thought，These small town may have with the United States as the case being abandoned？

　　再过几年，中国人口可能进入负增长，城市化步伐渐趋缓慢。这个时候，中国很多城市将面临洗牌，有一些城镇可能面临被遗弃的危险。

In a few years，China's population may enter negative growth，The slow pace of urbanization gradually。This time，China's many cities will face shuffle，There were some towns may be facing the risk of abandoned。