【财经网(博客,微博)专稿】记者 徐斌 【Financial nets(blog,Micro bo)ZhuanGao】Reporter cheung

　　据媒体报道，本轮国务院督查工作正式宣告收官。据悉，各个督查组近日陆续回京，督查情况将于近期形成报告并上报国务院。业界普遍认为，未来出台的新政内容和出台时机，将在很大程度上视这份报告而定。目前中央仍手握数项储备政策，包括提高二手房交易税、房产税试点扩容、预售制度微调等。若出台新政，则将在以强化现有政策执行为主的同时，推出部分新的调控手段，包括问责制等。市场多有人士认为，新政的出台时机，很有可能避开“金九银十”的交易旺季，在本月内落定。但回顾一下近十年来的地产调控政策，其实都大同小异。房价能否下调，调控能否取得实效，完全看房租和实际利率两个因素，而目前这两个因素都显示房价要上涨的。

According to media reports，This work of protecting the state council was officially declared receive an official。It is reported，Each DuZhaZu recently have back to Beijing，To the formation of protecting situation report and submitted to the state council。Industry generally thought，The future on the introduction of the New Deal on content and timing，Will to a great extent on the report and decide。At present the central still holds several reserve policy，Include improving tax secondhand the room、House property tax pilot expansion、Open to booking system fine-tuning, etc。If the New Deal on，Will give priority to in order to strengthen existing policy implementation at the same time，Part of the new curbs introduced，Including the accountability system, etc。Many people thought that market，The New Deal on time，Very could avoid“Jin jiuyin 10”Trading season，Settled within this month。But review nearly 10 years of real estate to control policy，In fact and all the same。House prices could cut，Regulation can get the effect，Fully see rent and real interest rates two factors，And the two factors are suggesting that prices will rise。

　　根据国家统计局8月9日公布的数据显示，2012年7月份，全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨1.8%。但居住价格同比上涨2.1%。其中，住房租金价格上涨3.1%，水、电、燃料价格上涨2.5%，建房及装修材料价格上涨0.5%。事实上，这两年来的各地城市房租，尤其是北京、上海等一线大城市的房租涨幅，远远高于统计局公布数据。房租持续上涨，预示城市房屋供需依然成问题。城镇化加速导致城市房屋需求旺盛的大趋势，是谁都无法改变的。如果政府紧缩银根，导致实际利率飙升，满大街都是老板跳楼、跑路或者破产的，譬如2008年上半年或者2011年，那么即使房租上涨，房价也会下调，即使幅度不大，也稍微让人宽心。但目前CPI已经破2，PPI同比负增长，如果货币持续紧缩下去，经济硬着陆显然不是决策层看到的。所以我们看到，今年以来，银根实际上悄悄放松了，按揭利率也随之下调，购房需求持续膨胀。这时指望靠行政手段将房价打下来，几乎没有可能。

According to the national bureau of statistics on August 9, figures show，In July, 2012，The national consumer spending rose 1.8% year-on-year in the general price level。But residential prices rose 2.1% year-on-year。Among them，Housing rental prices rose 3.1%，water、electricity、Fuel prices rose 2.5%，House construction and decoration materials prices rose 0.5%。In fact，The two years from cities around the rent，Especially in Beijing、A line of big cities such as Shanghai increase the rent，Far more than bureau data。Rent continued to rise，The city that supply and demand of houses still a problem。Accelerating urbanization in urban house demand trends，Who can change。If the government tightening，Real interest rates to soar，Full avenue is the boss to jump off a building、Run road or bankruptcy，For example in the first half of 2008 or 2011 years，So even if the rent to rise，House prices will fall，Even if the range is not too much，Also a little reassuring。But the CPI has broken 2，Year-on-year PPI，If monetary tightening continue on，A hard landing of the economy is obviously not see decision-making。So we see，Since this year，Money in fact quietly relax，Mortgage rates also will fall，The pent-up demand for inflation。Then expect on administrative means will house prices down，Is almost impossible。

　　不紧缩银根的情况下，抑制房价的最佳办法，就是增多建筑用地让地产商多盖房子。然而目前的情势是，地产商在持续调控下，现在大多心惊胆战，现金流和负债情况稍有好转，虽然有拿地举动，但大规模投资仍然不敢。今年6月份各地房价抬头的迹象显示，地产商库存清仓处理差不多了，一旦下半年楼市旺销如故，地产供需缺口可能拉大，那时房价暴涨几乎拦不住。因为房屋生产周期较长，从拿地到预售，中间环节即使让效率最高的万科来干，也得八个月。到那个时候再靠行政调控手段，不知道管理层能拿出什么招数来。

Not tightening，The best way to prevent housing price，Is building lands let developers increased more than building a house。Now the situation is，Property developers in continuous control，Now most afraid，Cash flow and liabilities is somewhat better，Although have to take action，But large-scale investment still can't。In June this year the signs up around house prices，Property developers inventory clearance almost，Once the second half as flourishing sells property market，Real estate supply and demand gap may be widened，When prices soaring almost no holding。Because building production cycle is long，Take place to open to booking，The intermediate link even let the efficiency of the highest vanke to dry，Also get eight months。By that time again on administrative control measures，Don't know what can take out beaming management。

　　（证券市场周刊供稿）

（Securities market weekly contributors）