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楼市调控关键期需强化预期管理--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-13

  对地方出台或变相放松房地产市场调控政策的,要予以纠正,加强地方问责。如果能够对微调尺度过大、房价反弹过快的地区建立起问责制度,显然有利于调控顺利推进,及时稳定市场预期。

Place to come on stage or in disguised form relax the real estate market adjustment and control policies,To rectify the,Strengthening local accountability。If can fine-tune scale is too large、House prices rebound too quick to set up in the responsibility system,Obviously beneficial to control is progressing smoothly,Timely stable market expectations。

  近日,珠海关于松绑“双限令”的“新政”又被紧急叫停。据悉,地区经济下滑以及土地出让收入大幅缩水是地方政府再次试探调控底线的重要原因。业界人士分析,虽然今年以来凡是放松限购的地方“微调”一冒头就被按住,表明中央调控有着明确的政策底线,但是地方政府放松调控的倾向却很容易误导当地购房者的预期,不利于楼市调控向纵深推进。

recently,Zhuhai on easing“Double limit make”of“New Deal”And be called an emergency。It is reported,Regional economic downturn and land lease income shrunk dramatically is local government regulation of retest important reasons for the bottom line。Industry analysts,Although this year since all relax 限购 place“fine-tuning”A MaoTou was hold,The regulation that has a clear policy the bottom line,But local government to relax regulation is easy to mislead the local home buyers expectations,Not to further promote market regulation。

  试图松绑调控的微调动作此起彼伏,也凸显出调控步入深水区后遇到的重重阻力。由于调控目标与地方政府利益不一致,而且成交量萎缩直接带来土地财政下滑,在当前稳增长的背景下,房地产仍然被一些地方政府视作拉动地区经济增长的主要引擎。如果中央无法保持政策高压,地方政府在执行尺度上很可能出现反复,从而引发房价反弹风险。

Try to relax the regulation fine-tuning action to break out,Also highlights the regulation in the deep water into heavy resistance。Due to the control target and local government interests do not accord,And turnover shrinking directly bring land financial downturn,In the current stability under the background of growth,Real estate is still some local governments as pull regional economic growth of the main engine。If the central government can't keep policy high pressure,The local government in the execution scale appears likely to repeat,And cause house prices rebound risk。

  众所周知,这轮调控的核心措施是限购、限贷,这些均是行政色彩浓厚的调控手段,其执行力度直接影响公众对政策松紧度的判断。地方政府又是各项举措的执行者,他们的态度和执行力度在很大程度上左右着市场预期和调控效果。当前成交明显回升,房价存在着较强的反弹冲动,要保证来之不易的调控效果不会付之东流,关键在于加强预期管理,对地方政府进行监督和问责。近日有住建部官员透露,对地方出台或变相放松房地产市场调控政策的,会予以纠正,加强地方问责。如果能够对微调尺度过大、房价反弹过快的地区建立起问责制度,显然有利于调控顺利推进,及时稳定市场预期。

As is known to all,This round of core measures is 限购 regulation、Limit credit,These are all administrative color strong control measures,The enforcement of the policy directly influence the public the tightness of rewinding judgment。The local government is the executor of the various measures,Their attitudes and enforcement largely about market expectations and control effect。The current deal rebounded somewhat,House prices exist strong rebound impulse,To ensure that the hard-won control effect won't go down the tubes,The key is to strengthen the expected management,The local government supervision and accountability。Recently have lived JianBu officials said,Place to come on stage or in disguised form relax the real estate market adjustment and control policies,Will rectify,Strengthening local accountability。If can fine-tune scale is too large、House prices rebound too quick to set up in the responsibility system,Obviously beneficial to control is progressing smoothly,Timely stable market expectations。

  有专家表示,在博弈陷入僵局、楼市再次走到十字路口之时,市场预期成为决定后市走势的关键,预期一旦形成,行情冷暖也就基本确定。因此,在当前调控的关键期,最重要的应当是保证政策的连续性,给予购房者稳定的政策预期。

Experts say,The game ended in deadlock、Go to the crossroads again property market,The market is expected to become the key to trend,Expected once formed,Market changes in temperature is almost certain。so,In the current control is the key,The most important is to guarantee the continuity of the policy should be,Give the person that buy a house stable policy expected。

  以2010年年中“楼市新政”为标志,这轮调控已经持续了两年,但是大多数城市降价幅度仍不明显。而且,随着时间流逝,尽管限购、限贷等核心调控措施仍在严格执行,但既有政策在市场预期方面的影响力越来越弱。除去政府高层的表态之外,购房者更多地从市场冷暖来判断房价走势。不少城市成交量飘红,加之开发商和相关利益群体对成交回暖大肆渲染,已经使许多购房者心态发生了变化,甚至出现了恐慌式购房情绪,这从一线城市又出现排队购房、“日光盘”中可见一斑。房价反弹冲动以及非理性力量的重新躁动,意味着“史上最为严厉”的调控面临巨大挑战。

In the middle of 2010“New property market”To mark,This round of regulation has continued for two years,But most of the city is still not clear cut prices。and,As time goes by,Although 限购、Credit limit of core control measures is still in the strict execution,But both policies in the market is expected to influence in more and more weak。Remove the top government statement outside,The person that buy a house more from market changes in temperature to judge house price movements。Many city volume wave red,Together with developers and related interest groups to clinch a deal warmer colours up,Have made many buyers mentality changed,Appear even panic type buys a room to emotions,This from a city and appear line up the house、“Th CD”Evidenced in。House prices rebound and irrational power to the impulse restless,means“The most severe in history”The regulation of face enormous challenges。

  不仅成交持续回暖,而且“地王”也“重出江湖”,北京万柳、广州珠江新城等地块近期均拍出新科“地王”,刺激着购房者脆弱的神经。事实上,即使成交回暖,大多数开发商依然对后市保持谨慎乐观。国家统计局数据显示,上半年房地产开发企业土地购置面积17543万平方米,同比下降19.9%,降幅进一步扩大。而且流拍流标现象较多,表明土地市场依然处于盘整下行阶段。虽然在整体偏冷的市场格局下,“地王”再现只是个别现象,但是经过一番炒作也会为恐慌式购房情绪推波助澜,给购房者形成面粉涨价将推高面包价格的印象。

Clinch a deal not only sustained progress,and“royal”also“Sylvester stallone”,Beijing wanliu、Guangzhou pearl river new town, etc all clap a new plot recently“royal”,To stimulate the nerve of the person that buy a house fragile。In fact,Even if the deal warmer,Most developers is still cautiously optimistic。The national bureau of statistics data shows,In the first half of real estate development enterprises purchase land area of 175.43 million square meters,19.9% year-on-year drop,Drop further。And flow pat flow phenomenon more standard,That still in land market consolidation downside stage。Although in the whole slants cold market pattern,“royal”Reproduce only individual phenomenon,But after some speculation also will purchase for panic type to stoke the mood,To the person that buy a house prices will push the high formation flour bread prices impression。

  可见,经过长期调控形成的房价回调预期并不稳固,眼下楼市进入一个混沌期,充斥着各种声音和信息,购房者的预期极易受到干扰。如果市场预期逆转,甚至形成抢房潮,那么开发商将失去以价换量的动力。此时政府高层屡屡释放出坚定调控的信号,有利于帮助购房者在众说纷纭的信息中认清房地产形势。

visible,After a long regulation of the formation of the callback is not stable prices expected,The property market access a chaotic period,Filled with all kinds of sound and information,The person that buy a house expected vulnerable to interference。If the market is expected to reverse,Even the form the trend,So developers will lose with the price change the amount of power。At this time the government on top of the release of the firm control signal,To help the person that buy a house in the translation-theories information shows real estate situation。

  温总理在江苏调研时指出,把抑制投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策,促进房价合理回归,决不能让房价反弹。这打破了一些利益群体对于政策转向的幻想。可以预见,促使房价理性回调,仍是未来房地产调控的主要目标。就现实情况看,房价已不具备大幅反弹的条件。当前开发商出现了明显的两极分化,龙头开发商依靠业绩回升以及强大的资金实力,不断提高着市场份额,甚至高价拿地,但是资金流捉襟见肘的小型开发商则面临被淘汰的危险。今年以来,已有杭州金星、锦绣天地、顺德广德业等小型开发商破产。不可否认的是,行业洗牌的大潮已经来临。在日趋激烈的竞争环境中,适者生存的法则将彻底显现。上海易居房地产研究院近日发布的研究报告显示,上半年,10个大型上市开发企业商品房成交面积比去年同期增长17.1%,但成交均价比去年同期下降8.4%,以价换量仍是楼市运行的主旋律。在这种趋势下,应强化预期管理,防止相关利益群体炒作各类市场信息,延缓房价回调步伐。

Premier wen jiabao in jiangsu research says,The inhibition of the investment demand speculation as a long-term policy,Promote the rational regression house prices,Never let the house prices rebound。It breaks down some interest groups for policy change of fantasy。Can foresee,House prices to rational callback,The estate is still the main goal of the regulation。Just look at the reality,House prices have not have the conditions of the rebound sharply。The current development business has noticeably polarization,Leading developers rely on the back and strong performance of financial strength,Continuously improve market share,Even with high price,But the cash flow of the small developers are facing broke out of danger。Since this year,For hangzhou Venus、Splendid heaven and earth、Shunde GuangDe industry such as small developers of bankruptcy。It is undeniable that the,Industry reshuffle of the tide has come。In the fierce competition in the environment,The law of the survival of the fittest will be fully revealed。Shanghai enjoysmart real estate research institute researchers report released recently,In the first half,10 large listed development enterprise commodity house clinch a deal the area than last year the corresponding period grows 17.1%,But the price 8.4% lower than the same period last year,To change the price of housing is still the main melody of operation。In light of the trend,Should reinforce expectations management,Prevent related interest groups of all kinds of hype market information,Delay the house price callback pace。



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