广州写字楼商铺需求齐放缓

Guangzhou office shops slowdown in demand together

　　2012年二季度，全球及国内经济增长放缓持续影响广州甲级写字楼租赁市场。仲量联行广州及深圳董事总经理吴仲豪表示：“上半年甲级写字楼整体需求仍疲弱，外资企业对写字楼扩充更趋谨慎，内需仍然是市场的主导力量。”与写字楼扩充需求下降情况相似，二季度的产业园租赁需求也出现递减趋势，持续低迷的需求同样使物流园面临租赁压力。出口放缓使物流园需求下降，二季度空置率走高。另一方面，广州零售消费增长放缓，个别零售商同质化竞争激烈，扩张需求放缓；加上下半年的新增供应将推高空置率，商铺市场也会出现与写字楼市场类似的情况。

In the second quarter of 2012，The global and domestic economic growth slowed continue to affect guangzhou grade a office rental market。Jones lang lasalle guangzhou and shenzhen managing director WuZhongHao said：“Grade a office in the first half of the overall demand is still weak，The foreign capital enterprise to office building expansion even more cautious，Domestic demand is still the dominant force in the market。”And office building expansion decreased demand for similar，The second quarter of the industrial park leasing demand also appears decreasing trend，Continued sluggish demand is also make logistics park face lease pressure。Export slowdown make logistics park demand decline，The second quarter vacancy rate go high。On the other hand，Guangzhou retail consumption growth slowed，Individual retailers homogenization competition is intense，Expansion slowing demand；Add in the second half of the new supply will push the high vacancy rate，Shops market also can appear and office market similar situation。

　　□赢周刊记者 韦常春

- win weekly WeiChangChun reporters

　　写字楼井喷供应期接近尾声 Office blowout is near the end

　　据了解，目前广州写字楼市场整体需求仍疲弱，渐趋两极化。鉴于全球经济疲弱，部分外资企业对经济前景仍然看淡，导致部分写字楼扩充计划受阻。其中，影响较大的是珠江新城新落成的大厦。仲量联行广州商业地产部主管马炜图表示：“尽管如此，一些以国内市场为主的外资企业受影响程度较低，放缓但仍相对稳定的国内经济仍然继续推动扩张需求，但是基本上呈成本节约型扩张，其大多选择天河中央商务区和越秀区内的传统甲级写字楼，并使该两区的空置率有所下降。”

According to understand，At present guangzhou office market overall demand is still weak，Gradually polarization。In view of the global economic weakness，Part of the foreign investment enterprise to economic outlook still see light，In some office building expansion plan hindered。Among them，Influence of the larger is the pearl river new town the newly completed building。Jones lang lasalle guangzhou commercial real estate department supervisor MaHui diagram said：“Even so，Some in the domestic market of the foreign capital enterprise mainly affected level is relatively low，Slow but still relatively stable domestic economy continues to promote the expansion demand，But basically is cost saving expansion，Most of the choice of tianhe CBD (central business district and yuexiu area of traditional grade a office，And the sides of the vacancy rate declined。”

　　仲量联行研究发现，内资企业仍然是广州甲级写字楼租赁及销售市场的主导力量。新竣工写字楼的吸纳量大多来自本地企业，例如本季度竣工的广州银行大厦，广州银行及其他购买自用部分令全市整体甲级写字楼净吸纳量较上季大幅增长，达到12.5万平方米。同时，上半年全市整体写字楼空置率比上半年回落近2个百分点至10.6％。同期净吸纳量累计约16万平方米，较去年同期减少超过一半。

Jones lang lasalle study found，Domestic enterprises is still guangzhou grade a office leasing and sales market leading power。Completion of the new office XiNaLiang mostly from local enterprise，For example the quarter of the completion of the guangzhou bank building，Guangzhou Banks and other purchasing a self-used part makes the whole grade a office net XiNaLiang a sharp increase in season，Up to 125000 square meters。At the same time，In the first half of the whole office vacancy rate than the first half fell nearly 2% to 10.6%。The net XiNaLiang accumulative total of about 160000 square meters，Compared to the same period last year to reduce more than half。

　　由于甲级写字楼竞争趋烈，租金转跌。据仲量联行统计，二季度广州市甲级写字楼租金环比下降1.1％至每月每平方米155元（按建筑面积计算）；上半年受总体需求下滑及供应压力影响，平均租金累计缓降1.2％。

Due to the fierce competition in the grade a office，Rent turn down。According to Jones lang lasalle statistics，The second quarter guangzhou grade a office rentals link fell by 1.1% per month to 155 yuan per square meter（According to the building area computation）；By the decline in demand in the first half of the overall and supply pressure influence，The average rent accumulated slow drop 1.2%。

　　目前广州写字楼市场井喷供应持续，但将接近尾声。由于近期有不少新增供应交付使用，甲级写字楼市场的整体租金受到一定压力，同时乙级写字楼出租率上升并带动租金上扬。跨国公司的房地产决策仍趋向谨慎，内资企业则继续作为市场主导力量。另一方面，由于2013至2014供应相对减少，井喷供应将接近尾声，马炜图相信今年将是部分租户进行搬迁活动的理想时机。仲量联行预计下半年有新增供应50万平方米，至今年底，全市甲级写字楼的总存量将达360万平方米。“展望下半年，除非经济增长放缓的情况改善，否则租赁需求特别是外资企业方面，将会持续低迷。同时，新增供应量的洪峰也将大大增加空置率的压力。在需求下降和供应井喷的双重压力下，整体租金将面临严峻考验，对新竣工大厦的影响尤其明显。”

At present guangzhou office market blowout supply continued，But will be near the end。Because there are many recent new supply consign is used，Grade a office market overall rent by certain pressure，At the same time, class b office occupancy rate rise and bring up the rent。Multinational real estate decision still tend to care，Domestic enterprises are to continue as a leading force in the market。On the other hand，Due to the 2013 to 2014 supply relative to reduce，Blowout supply will be near the end，MaHui diagram believe that this year will be part of the tenants to move activities of the ideal time。Jones lang lasalle is expected to have the second half of the new supply of 500000 square meters，Since the end of the year，Grade a office in the city the total stock will reach to 3.6 million square meters。“In the second half of the prospects，Unless economic growth situation improve，Or leasing demand especially in foreign capital enterprise，Will continue to slump。At the same time，New supply peak will greatly increase the vacancy rate of pressure。Drop in demand and supply under double pressures of blowout，The overall rent will face a severe test，The influence of the completion of the new building is especially obvious。”

　　下半年商场空置率将上升 In the second half of the market vacancy rate will rise

　　今年1至5月，广州全市社会消费品零售总额累计同比增长13.4％，增幅持续下降，总比上年同期下降2.1％。受经济放缓和前景不明朗等因素影响，部分中档品牌零售商销售压力较大。过去一两年零售商扩张迅速，主要商圈内同质化竞争激烈，再加上零售消费放缓，市场整合的风险大增。二季度部分零售商暂缓扩张计划，尤其是即将竣工的物业的预租情况进展相对放缓。

This year 1 to 5 months，Guangzhou city social total retail sales of consumer goods accumulated a year-on-year increase of 13.4%，Growth continued to decline，Than the same period last year dropped 2.1%。By the economic slowdown and prospects of the impact of factors such as the unclear，Part of the intermediate brand retailers selling pressure great。In the past year or two retailers expand rapidly，Main business circle in the fierce competition in the homogeneity，Plus retail spending slowdown，The market integration of a risk。The second quarter part retailers respite expansion plans，Especially the completion of property of the preliminary rent situation relative slow progress。

　　仲量联行广州及深圳商铺部副董事程怡说，目前广州优质商铺总存量达到150万平方米。下半年的新增供应约为40万平方米；至今年底，全市优质商铺总存量将达到188万平方米。展望下半年，由于全市零售消费总额增速减缓，零售商大多暂缓扩张计划，而新商场又将扎堆开业，预计届时空置率将上升。

Jones lang lasalle deputy director of guangzhou and shenzhen shops ChengYi said，At present guangzhou quality shops stock total 1.5 million square meters。The new supply in the second half of the year is about 400000 square meters；Since the end of the year，The high quality shops total stock will reach 1.88 million square meters。In the second half of the prospects，Because of the total retail consumption growth slowed，Most retailers respite expansion plans，The new store opening and gathers together，Expected the vacancy rate will rise。

　　在商铺投资市场方面，二季度保德信房地产投资管理公司以20亿元购入位于海珠区、总建筑面积为8万平方米的乐峰广场，这是广州历来最大宗整宗商业物业投资交易。

In the shops investment markets，The second quarter the dexin real estate investment management company with 2 billion yuan buying is located in hai、With a total construction area of 80000 square meters of LeFeng square，This is the largest guangzhou has always been full of commercial property investment trading。

　　物流园租赁需求将持续低迷 Logistics park leasing demand will continue to slump

　　受全球经济气候影响，广州上半年的工业经济发展呈明显放缓现象。今年1至5月，广州的累计出口同比增长3.7％，较去年同期的增长水平下降18.6％。规模以上工业总产值增长也有所放缓，较去年同期减少2.2％。

Impacted by the global economic climate influence，Guangzhou for the first half of the industrial economic development is marked slowdown phenomenon。This year 1 to 5 months，The accumulative total of guangzhou export year-on-year growth of 3.7%，During the same period last year growth levels dropped 18.6%。Above designated size industrial gross output value increase will be slow，Compared to the same period last year decreased by 2.2%。

　　由于出口放缓导致需求下降，物流园面临租赁压力。“上半年受国内外经济因素影响，物流园需求持续放缓，其中保税园区受出口增长放缓影响较大。”仲量联行广州研究部高级经理曾丽表示，到今年底，全市非保税物流园总存量将增至130万平方米，而保税区供应量则受需求影响继续偏紧。

Due to the slowdown in export demand led to decline，Logistics park face lease pressure。“By domestic and foreign economic factors in the first half，Logistics park slowdown in demand for them，The bonded zone greatly influenced by export growth slowed。”Jones lang lasalle guangzhou research CengLi senior manager said，By the end of this year，The non bonded logistics park total stock will increase to 1.3 million square meters，And free trade zone by the supply demand influence continue partial tight。

　　据统计，非保税园区二季度的空置率轻微上升至5.2％，上半年累计上升2.9个百分点。上半年非保税园区平均租金取得1.1％的增长，达每月每平方米29元。二季度保税园区虽无新增供应，但受出口减缓影响，有部分租户缩减使用面积或迁出，使保税园区空置率保持在高位水平达34.5％，上半年累计上升0.6个百分点。

According to the statistics，The bonded zone 2 quarter of slight vacancy rate increased from 5.2% to，Total in the first half rose 2.9%。The bonded zone in the first half of the average rent achieved a 1.1% growth，Da per month per square metre $29。The second quarter bonded park although no new supply，But driven by exports slowing effect，Some tenants reduction use area or move out，Make bonded park vacancy rates remain high in 34.5% level，Total in the first half rose 0.6%。

　　曾丽认为，下半年制造业和出口增长放缓将继续影响物流园需求，随着大量外资企业冻结扩张需求，新增租赁需求将持续低迷。同时，新供应量洪峰将大大推高非保税物流园的空置率，尤其是非核心区。而受出口增长低迷影响，保税物流园空置率面临同样压力。需求减弱加上供应量增加，使未来保税物流园租金基本持平，上涨机会不大。而部分地理位置较好的非保税物流园，空置率仍会继续偏低，租金仍有增长空间。

CengLi think，In the second half of the manufacturing and export growth will continue to affect logistics park demand，With a large amount of foreign capital enterprise freezing expansion demand，New leasing demand will continue to slump。At the same time，The new supply peak will greatly push up the bonded logistics park's vacancy rate，Especially the right and wrong。And by the export growth influence downturn，Bonded logistics park vacancy rate faces the same pressure。Weakened demand and supply were increased，Make the future bonded logistics park rental flat，Chances rise。And some of the geographical position better not bonded logistics park，The vacancy rate is still low will continue，The rent is still have room for growth。

　　房价大幅上涨的机会偏低 House prices sharply rising opportunity on the low side

　　在豪宅市场方面，由于企业租户增多，带动二季度租金上升。曾丽指出：“全球经济不明朗，使越来越多跨国企业重视节省成本。有部分外国雇员因缩减津贴，不得不迁至较小型单位。同时，随着进驻珠江新城写字楼的企业增加，整体就业人数上升，珠江新城中等面积公寓需求增加，带动全市高档住宅的租金继续小幅攀升。”二季度豪宅平均租金环比增长1.2％至每月每平方米77元，上半年则较去年四季度上涨3％。

In a person of extraordinary powers curtilage markets，Due to the increasing enterprise tenants，Drive the second quarter rent rise。CengLi pointed out that：“The global economy is not clear，To make more and more multinational enterprise pay attention to save cost。Some foreign employees because of reduced allowance，Have to move to smaller units。At the same time，As in the pearl river new town office building enterprise increase，The overall employment toll，Pearl river new city medium area apartment demand increase，Drive the high-grade residential rental continue to rise slightly。”In the second quarter of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage the average rent link up 1.2% to 77 yuan per square meter per month，In the first half of last year, is the fourth quarter rose 3%。

　　随着一手市场回暖，加上核心地区如珠江新城的新增供应有限，越来越少二手业主愿意降低售价，部分业主甚至希望调高售价，但买家大多持观望态度。下半年豪宅市场新增供应将达800套以上，预计年底总存量将达4万套。预计下半年开发商仍将以跑量为主要策略。同时，对房价合理回归主动调控仍然存在，因此房价大幅上涨的机会偏低。

As a market thaw，Combined with core area such as the pearl river new town of new supply limited，Less and less second-hand owner would like to reduce the price，Part of the owner or even hope to move the high price，But buyers mostly sidelined。The second half of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage the new supply market will reach more than 800 sets，At the end of the year is expected to total stock will reach to 40000 sets。Is expected in the second half of the developers will still to run quantity as the main strategy。At the same time，Reasonable prices to return to active control still exist，So prices sharply rising opportunity on the low side。