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房地产业“半年报”喜忧参半--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-15

房地产业“半年报”喜忧参半

  国家统计局近日发布的房地产业“半年报”让人喜忧参半:喜的是上半年房价同比增长5.3%,基本抑制住其过快增长的步伐;忧的是投资增速回落,“拖累”了GDP。专家认为,房地产调控效果明显,对经济的影响也在意料之中,切莫过分看重经济增长数字而淡忘了调控政策的初衷。

The national bureau of statistics recently released by the real estate industry“Half annals”Let a person mixed:Happy is housing prices in the first half year-on-year increase of 5.3%,Basic restrain its rapid growth pace;Of care is growing investment back,“drag”The GDP。Experts say,Real estate regulation and control effect is obvious,The impact on the economy of are also expected,Never too value economic growth figures and forget the original intent of the adjustment and control policies。

  调控仍处攻坚阶段 Regulation still at a crucial stage

  “以房地产拖累经济为由要求放松调控政策,正是我们所担心的。”中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌告诉记者,现在房地产“调控的压力来自于人们将楼市与GDP捆绑的思维,忽视了调控对抑制房价过快上涨所取得的成效。”

“With the real estate drag on the economy requirement to relax regulation policy,What we have to worry about。”China's real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang told reporters,Now the real estate“Control of pressure from the people will market and GDP bind thinking,Ignore the regulation to control the property price hikes in the effect。”

  国家统计局13日发布的经济数据显示,我国上半年GDP同比增长7.8%。其中,二季度增长7.6%,三年来首度“破八”。国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长盛来运坦言,房地产的主动调控确实是今年经济增长速度下滑的一个重要原因。“从房地产投资增速回落的幅度以及与房地产销售有关的家具和家电销售情况来看,增速都回落得比较明显,这不可避免地在一定程度上影响短期经济增长。”

The national bureau of statistics released 13, the economic data shows,China GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year in the first half。the,The second quarter growth of 7.6%,In the first three“Broken eight”。A spokesman for the national bureau of statistics news、The national economy comprehensive statistics of priests cheng to transport said,The active control is indeed real estate this year's economic growth rate of decline an important reason。“From real estate investment growth down amplitude and real estate sales the furniture and electrical appliances sale situation,All growth dropped more obvious,This inevitably to a certain extent influence short-term economic growth。”

  交通银行(601328,股吧)金融研究中心的报告显示,我国经济中房地产行业对GDP的贡献仍较高,近十年房地产投资占GDP的比重保持在5.5%左右,且产业关联较高。

Bank of communications(601328,guba)Financial research center report,In the our country economy the real estate industry to GDP contribution still higher,Nearly 10 years real estate investment in GDP maintained about 5.5%,And the industrial connection is higher。

  进一步完善调控政策 To further perfect the regulation and control policy

  顾云昌认为,2012年房地产调控的重点仍然是构建合理价格体系,继续执行限购限贷政策抑制投资投机性需求,增加保障房和普通住房供应,满足中低收入人群的住房需求,支持刚性和改善型住房需求。特别是对于改善型住房需求,也应当在信贷政策上予以差别对待,降低首付成数和给予优惠利率。

GuYunChang think,In 2012 the real estate regulation the focus is still on the constructing reasonable price system,Continue purchasing limit credit policy inhibition investment the speculative demand,Increase security room and ordinary housing supply,Meet the housing needs of low-income people,Support rigidity and improve the type of housing demand。Especially for improving type housing demand,Also in the credit policy shall be discriminatory,Lower down percentage and give preferential interest rates。

  申银万国分析报告指出,可行的方式就是继续此前的限购限贷,打击投机性购房,同时放宽房地产开发商的融资限制,保证正常供给。

ShenYin universal analysis report,Feasible way is to continue the previous restricted credit limit,Blow speculative purchase,At the same time to relax real estate developer financing limit,Ensure normal supply。

 

 应建立调控长效机制 Regulation shall establish long-term mechanism

  6月份,多数一二线城市新建商品住宅成交量创近17个月新高。而进入7月份,部分城市环比成交数据继续增长。伴随着成交量的上涨,房价也开始逐渐回升。

June,Most a second city new commodity housing turnover and nearly 17 months highs。And the beginning of July,Parts of the city link clinch a deal the data continues to grow。With the rise in volume,House prices have started to pick up gradually。

  顾云昌认为,这一轮成交量的反弹与开发商前期的“以价换量”有关,更重要的是货币政策的宽松带来的预期改变,使得自住性需求认为购房窗口已经打开,积极入市。

GuYunChang think,This round of turnover rebound and the developers“To price in quantity”relevant,More important is the loose monetary policy is expected to bring change,Make self living that sexual needs the window has been open,Market actively。

  “一些人认为房价合理回归就是要降房价,其实还有一种路径是增加居民收入,使得房价收入比趋于合理。”顾云昌称。

“Some people think that house prices reasonable regression is to drop prices,In fact there is a path is to increase income,Make the housing price to income ratio more reasonable。”GuYunChang says。

  房地产研究机构易居中国的报告显示,中国房价收入比曾在2009年达到8.1的峰值,去年降至7.4,随着调控的持续以及居民可持续收入的增长,预计今年大中城市的房价收入比有望回落至6至7的合理区间。

Real estate research institutions in China easy report,China the housing price to income ratio was 8.1 in 2009, the peak,Last year dropped to 7.4,With the control of continuous and residents sustainable income growth,This year is expected to large and medium-sized cities of the housing price to income ratio is expected to fall to 6 to 7 reasonable interval。

  据新华社电

According to xinhua



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