从1998年到2012年，在市场与政府调控的博弈中，房地产一直在冬日生死与夏日井喷的冰火两重天里野蛮生长。无论怎样，借着中国城市化的东风，这个庞大的行业在房价疯涨的过程中逐渐壮大。

From 1998 to 2012，In the market and the government regulation of the game，Real estate has been in the winter and summer and blowout of the ice hot in between wild growth。No matter how，Through the east wind of China's urbanization，This huge industry in the process of soaring house prices expanded gradually。

　　只是2012年的今天有些不同，虽然在经历严冬论调之后，房地产看到了夏日的再次火爆，甚至多数老百姓和开发商都已确信房价不会涨，但也绝无下降的可能之时，房地产行业却感到了一种深深的窒息，这不是某个企业，而是对整个行业生死存亡的的担忧与压力，如同被扼住了死穴……

Just 2012 years of some different today，Although the experience after winter arguments，Real estate saw the summer hot again，Even most of the common people and developers have been convinced that prices do not rise，But also no drop of may，The real estate industry felt a deep asphyxia，This is not a enterprise，But the industry of life and death concerns and pressure，As was upon the dead point...

　　

不得不面对的死亡逻辑 Have to face death logic

　　这是房地产企业一直在经历的故事：2005年，一个房地产企业花了5亿元买了一块地，2007年，全部开发并卖掉赚了15亿元；当年这个企业把原来买地的5亿元加上卖楼的15亿元拿出来，用20亿元买地，只能买到原来一半的地；依次类推，等到第三轮的时候，这个企业只能买到四分之一的地……同时，房地产的信贷政策也是在逐年缩紧，资金杠杆越来越小。即，企业卖房的收入永远跟不上地价的上涨，你的蛋糕只能越做越小……

This is the real estate enterprise has always been in the story of the experience：In 2005,，A real estate enterprise spent 500 million yuan to buy a piece of land，In 2007,，All develop and sell earned 1.5 billion yuan；When the enterprise transform to buy $500 million plus sell floor of 1.5 billion yuan out，With 2 billion yuan to buy land，Can buy to its original half of the land；And the like，Wait until the third round of the time，The enterprise can only buy a quarter of the land...At the same time，Real estate credit policy is in tighten year by year，Capital leverage more and more small。namely，The income of the enterprise selling forever can't keep up with the rising price of land，Your cake can only more do small...

　　这就是房地产的死亡逻辑：当地价上涨高于房价收入的时候，企业无法通过原始积累与价值创造实现扩大再生产，在蛋糕越做越小的时候，只有等死。

This is the real estate death logic：The local price rise higher than when the housing price to income，Enterprise can't through the primitive accumulation and value creation realize expanded reproduction，In the cake more do little，Only to die。

　　事实上，房地产的死亡逻辑在不同国家的某个发展阶段都曾经或者正在经历着，问题的关键在于此时的死亡逻辑影响的不仅仅是个体而是全局，它隐藏在各种各样的现象与问题之中，若隐若现，却把这个行业带向了一条看似简单的艰难之路。这也是我们今天探讨这个问题的关键之所在。

In fact，Real estate death logic in different countries a certain stage of development have been or are going through，The crux of the problem lies in the death logic influence is not only the individual but global，It hidden in various phenomena and problems in，loom，But the industry zone to a seemingly simple difficult road。This is also we explore this problem today the key for the。

　　死亡逻辑有几个简单的假设前提：第一、基于此前地价上涨高于房价收入；第二、基于房企每轮拿地都选择具有可比性的类似地块；第三、目前土地财政、税收政策等一直持续下去。

Death logic has a few simple assumptions：The first、Based on the previous land price rise higher than the housing price to income；The second、Based on the room to take each round to choose comparable of similar block；The third、At present land financial、Tax policy has been to continue。

　　正是基于以上假设，房地产开发商拿地、开发、销售的商业模式才会走向一条死胡同；因为这个死亡的不归路不仅在单个企业体现，更在于对于房地产行业系统发展的风险。就单个企业，它们可以通过不同的商业与运营模式来规避或者减缓这种风险，而整个行业在假设前提的大趋势下的走势其实是一个必然的结果，那就是一步步走向死亡……除非假设前期的根基发生变化。

It is based on the above hypothesis，Real estate developers to take、development、Sales business model will to a dead end；Because the death struggle not only in single enterprise reflect，More is that the real estate industry the risk of system development。Just a single enterprise，They can through the different business and operation mode to circumvent or slows down the risk，And the whole industry in the trend of assumptions, the trend is actually a corollary，That is step by step towards death...Unless the assumption that the foundations of the change。

　　

房企五种战略应对死亡逻辑 Room to five kinds of strategy to deal with death logic

　　既然房地产开发是一个正常的模式，那么要摆脱死亡逻辑，最好的办法就是消除造成这种逻辑的假设前提：

Since real estate development is a normal mode，So to get rid of the death logic，The best way is to eliminate caused by this logic premise hypothesis：

　　第一，以价换量消除价格因素：开发商可以开发区域上做文章，即从地价高的一线城市，转向二三线、甚至四线城市，通过以价换量的方式，实现企业的规模扩张，毕竟中国城市化率的空间很大，这点做得最出色的当属恒大，2011年恒大平均地价仅为700元左右，可以说它一直都在这个死亡逻辑的边缘，因此受到的影响目前还是比较小的。

The first，To price in quantity eliminate price factors：Developers can make an issue of development area，That is, from the high price of a line city，To two or three line、Even four wire city，Through price change quantity way，To realize the scale expansion of enterprise，After all, China's urbanization rate of the space is very large，This is done the most outstandingly, when is the evergrande，2011 evergrande average price was only 700 yuan，Can say that it had been in the death the edge of the logic，So come now or smaller。

　　第二，战略转型摆脱单一逻辑：企业可以从住宅转型到商业、工业等其他业态，来缓解这种相似地价及相似运营模式造成的对整体规模的影响。虽然各种类型用地均呈上涨态势，但是不同业态产品的规模效应与利润空间还是有很大差别的。

The second，Strategic transformation to get rid of a single logical：Enterprises can from the residential transformation to business、Industrial and other formats，To ease this kind of similar land price and similar operation mode for the whole scale of caused by the impact。Although various types of all the land rise，But different formats product scale effect and profit space there are still great difference。

　　第三，死亡逻辑下的技术创新：既然这个死亡逻辑是大势所趋，那么企业在蛋糕不得不做小的同时，还可以选择把蛋糕的价格卖得更高，这就需要再房地产技术多下功夫。例如，锋尚对绿色节能环保地产技术的研究已经走在行业前列。

The third，Death logic of technology innovation：Since the death logic is the trend of The Times，So enterprises in the cake had to do small at the same time，Still can choose the price of the cake sell higher，This need to real estate technology work hard。For example，Front is still of green energy conservation and environmental protection estate technology research has walked in the forefront of the industry。

　　第四，系统创新超越死亡逻辑：系统创新不是指精细化管理，虽然这点对于企业后期发展很重要，但是它无法解决死亡逻辑这一固有问题，我们说的系统创新是指在房地产开发价值链上系统战略规划与核心竞争力的培养，即，超越企业开发系统本身的创新。

The fourth，System innovation surmounting death logic：System innovation is not refers to the fine management，Although this late for enterprise development is very important，But it cannot solve the inherent problems death logic，We say the system innovation refers to the value chain of the real estate development strategic planning system and cultivating the core competitiveness of，namely，Beyond the enterprise development the innovation of the system itself。

　　例如：在选择在上游做产融一体化的城市与地产开发模式，甚至通过基金平台等模式运营；或者选择在下游做商业地产、工业地产运营，进而从单纯销售模式转向经营与服务模式。

For example：In the selection in upstream do produce melt the integration of city and real estate development mode，Even through the fund operation platform, as a model；Or choose in the downstream do commercial real estate、Industrial real estate operation，And from the simple to the sales mode of management and service mode。

　　第五，穿越死亡逻辑是最高境界：既然死亡逻辑客观存在，那么最有效的方式就是寻找在这个逻辑范围之外的空间，一些企业选择在海外投资开发，以规避在目前政策市场环境下难以改变的死亡逻辑。目前、万科、万通等房企在这方面都做了一定的运营实践。

The fifth，Through death logic is the highest realm：Since death logic objective existence，So the most effective way is looking for in this logic outside the range of space，Some enterprise selection in overseas investment and development，To circumvent the policy in the present market environment change to the death of logic。At present、vanke、Wantong etc room enterprises in this respect are made certain operation practice。

　　

政府四个方向打破死亡逻辑 The government four directions break death logic

　　对于单一企业而言，可以采取以上不同的商业模式、管理方法和技术手段去规避、缓解、跳出、甚至超越死亡逻辑；而对于房地产行业本身而言，这个死亡逻辑则是无法回避、甚至对于未来是致命的，因为在现有城市发展和制度政策下这个趋势是无法在短期内转变的。

For a single enterprise is concerned，Can take more different business model、Management methods and technical means to avoid、ease、Jump out of、Even beyond death logic；For the real estate industry itself，The death logic is unable to avoid、Even for the future is fatal，Because in the current urban development and the policy of this trend is not in the short term the change。

　　十几年城市化进程的快速发展，从1998年30%到2011年47%，以及未来70%、80%城市化率的预期，使得中国地价和房价上涨成为一种必然，问题的关键是上涨的速度及幅度超过了正常发展的合理值，期间还伴随着收入分配不均导致的中产阶级较少的社会问题。

More than ten years the rapid development of urbanization process，From 30% in 1998 to 47% in 2011，And future 70%、80% urbanization rate expectations，Make China's land price and house price rising into one kind of necessity，The key to the problem is the rising speed and range than the normal development of the reasonable value，While with the uneven distribution of income in the middle class less social problems。

　　如果说企业可以采取不同的方法应对死亡逻辑，那么政府要做的就是打破这个死亡逻辑，因为这是只有政府做得到的，即，通过深化政治经济改革来打破死亡逻辑的僵局。这其中，可以从土地供应数量、土地价格后背的地方财政、抑制土地与住房投机的税收制度和保障房功能与落实机制来进行思考与实践。

If the enterprise can adopt different ways to cope with death logic，So the government should do is to break the death logic，Because it is only the government can do，namely，Through the deepening political and economic reforms to break the deadlock death logic。the，From the land supply quantity、Land prices back local finance、Inhibition of land and housing speculation of the tax system and safeguard room function and implement mechanism to thinking and practice。

　　第一，政府可以从土地供给的市场角度来打破死亡逻辑。从土地供给数量来讲，自2004年到2009年，土地购置面积增幅高于10%的有14个月，而58个月是低增长或负增长，这也是近几年房价大涨的背后推手。2010年到2011年增加的土地供给，大部分为保障性住房用地。事实上，2008年至今，商品房销售面积已持续3年反超可供应面积，累积潜在的存量逐年缩小，即，未来两年商品房供应是偏紧的。

The first，The government can from land supply market Angle to break death logic。From the land supply in terms of quantity，From 2004 to 2009，Land acquisition area increase more than 10% have 14 months，And 58 months is the low growth or negative growth，This is rose house prices in recent years behind hand slap。From 2010 to 2011 increased land supply，Most of the land for affordable housing。In fact，Since 2008，Sales of commercial property area has last 3 years win can supply area，Cumulative potential stock reduced year by year，namely，The next two years commodity house supply is partial tight。

　　所以，提供适合市场供需关系的土地供应量是打破死亡逻辑的一条重要途径。而如何在整体用地规划方面统一布局及调整是需要大手笔和大魄力的，这里不仅涉及到18亿亩红线，还包括农业结构调整、退耕还林和退耕还草、灾毁用地和建设用地之间的统筹协调，也包括建设用地以及住宅用地具体项目之间的横向和纵向的规划，我们需要放在十几年、几十年之后就看这个问题，而不是追求短期效应。

so，With the market supply and demand of land supply is to break the death logic an important way。And how in the overall land use planning unified layout and adjustment is need big and great courage，Here is not only related to the red line of 1.8 billion mu，Also includes agricultural structure adjustment、Returning farmland to forest and grain for green、Disaster destroyed land and construction land coordination between，Also includes construction land and housing land specific project between the horizontal and vertical planning，We need to be on more than ten years、Decades later, look at this problem，Rather than the pursuit of short-term effect。

　　第二，政府从供地价格背后的财政职能与考核机制入手来打破死亡逻辑。从土地供给价格来看，整体是在疯狂上升的势头，以京城地价为例，即便是在调控如此严峻的2012年，地王之声也是此起彼伏，原因之一就是同类地块的起拍价仍是有升无减，所谓的楼面地价下降，其实是供地区域从主城向五六环转移而已。这只是地方政府土地出让的一个缩影而已。

The second，From the government for land price behind the financial function and evaluation mechanism of death logic to break。From the point of the price of land supply，The whole is in the crazy rising momentum，With city land price as an example，Even in the regulation so severe in 2012，The sound of left is to break out，One reason is that the same block of QiPaiJia is still can rise without reduction，The so-called floor price decline，It is offering from the city area to five or six ring transfer it。This is only the local government land transfer is a lot bigger than。

　　归根结底是要追溯到分税制之后形成的蔚为壮观的土地财政。动辄占到地方政府财政收入一半、甚至更多的土地出让金和相关税收，不仅成为高房价的重要推手，将房地产推向无法回头高价时代，而且严重透支了政府未来十几届的可持续发展能力。今年上半年全国300个城市土地出让金为6525.98亿元，同比下降38%，使得地方政府财政受到不小考验。在面临土地财政和地方债务困境的同时，地方政府更需要考虑改变惯性支出和有质量增长等长期发展的问题，这同时也对政府绩效考核的政治改革深入问题提出了考验。

In the final analysis is to be traced back to the tax form after the spectacular land finance。Frequently account for half the local government financial income、Even more land leasing fees and relevant tax，Not only as a high house prices important hand slap，Will the real estate prices to can't turn back time，And serious overdraw the government more than a dozen of future sustainable development ability。In the first half of this year the national 300 urban land transfer fund for 652.598 billion yuan，38% year-on-year drop，The local government is not small test。In the face of the land finance and local debt trouble at the same time，The local government more need to consider change inertia expenditure and quality, such as the issue of the development of long-term growth，It is also for the government performance evaluation of political reform put forward further test。

　　第三，政府从抑制土地和住宅的投机性来打破死亡逻辑。这个逻辑中隐含的一点，在于土地和住房都成为了一种完全意义上的商品，这就意味着它们拥有消费性和投资性的双重属性，而后者正是造成目前地价、房价，尤其是一线城市地价、房价疯狂飙升的重要原因之一。因此政府需要从两个方面消除这种投资属性。

The third，The government from inhibition land and housing of speculative to break death logic。This logic in the underlying a little，In land and housing has become a complete sense of goods，This means that they have double attribute of the consumer and investment，While the latter is due to land at present、House prices，Especially a line of urban land、Soaring house prices crazy, one of the important reasons。Therefore the government needs to from two aspects to eliminate this kind of investment properties。

　　首先、就是从供地角度消除土地的政府投机动机，这取决于上一条政府对于财政职能、考核机制以及有质量发展的深入改革。其次、就是从税收角度抑制住宅的投资性功能，例如，收取鼓励房屋出租、收取房屋空置税等措施，当然由于我国住房市场管理的粗放化和复杂性，决定了这是一件任重道远的事情，当然德国模式等外来经验也是可以借鉴的。

First of all、Is from the Angle of land for eliminating the government speculative motive，It depends on a government for financial function、Assessment mechanism and quality development of reform。secondly、From the Angle of tax is inhibition of residential investment sexual function，For example，Collect encourage rental housing、Collect housing vacancy tax measures，Of course because our country housing market management extensive is changed and complexity，Decided this is a shoulder heavy responsibilities of things，Of course the German model of foreign experience is also can use for reference。

　　第四，从对保障房的功能及分配进行长远规划与落实，是打破死亡逻辑的最直接手段。十二五期间，3600万套保障性住房是个具有诱惑力的数字，2011年已开工1000多万套，2012年上半年，保障性安居工程已开工470万套，基本建成260万套，完成投资5070亿元人民币。到目前为止，人们关心的是两个问题：其一、保障房的定义与功能，以及如何能够实现分配的公平公正；其二、保障房的建设资金、质量及后期维护等问题。事实上，前者恰恰是决定后者的主导思想与核心机制，后者则是围绕前者去进行实践与调整。

The fourth，From the security room function and distribution in long-term planning and implementation，Is to break the most direct means death logic。During 1025，36 million sets of affordable housing is an attractive digital，In 2011 started more than 1000 sets，In the first half of 2012，Indemnificatory comfortable housing project has commenced 4.7 million sets，Basically completed 2.6 million sets，Complete investment is 507 billion yuan RMB。So far，People are concerned about two problems：one、Security room definition and function，And how to realize fair distribution；The second、Security room construction funds、Quality and later maintenance problems。In fact，The former on the latter is to determine the dominant thoughts and core mechanism，The latter is around the former to practice and adjustment。

　　对于保障房的实现方式一直是业界争论的话题，以销售为主的方式被认为是滋生腐败与不公正的温床，而租售并举正在成为大家尝试的一个重要方向，例如，北京的住房保障品种，已从原来的廉租房和经适房，增加到廉租房、经适房、限价房和公租房……当然，目前做的只是保障房建设的第一步，接下来我们依然需要探索。这个在未来即将见效的保障房运营机制一方面是在补我们过去十多年欠下的住房保障性功能的课，另一方面如果运行得当也是通过与商品房并行方式，打破房地产死亡逻辑的有效方式。

To guarantee the realization of the room way has been the subject of debate，In order to sell primarily way considered corruption and a hotbed of injustice，And rental simultaneously is became everybody to try an important direction，For example，Beijing housing security varieties，Already from the original low rent housing and the comfortable room，Increased to low rent housing、The optimum room、Price room, and renting a house......Of course，Now do is guarantee of the construction of the room the first step，Next, we still need to explore。This in the future will be effective safeguard room operation mechanism on the one hand is for the past ten years in we owe the housing safeguard function class，On the other hand, if proper operation is through the and commodity house parallel mode，Break real estate death logic effective way。

　　如同许多新生的事物一样，房地产行业在经历了最初的野蛮盲目和暴利之后，依然充满了旺盛的生命力，面对各种政策环境与自身发展阶段所必须经历的死亡逻辑，政府与房地产企业已经开始行动，只是这种行动不应该是单一的、杂乱无章的，而是需要一个系统的统筹规划，更重要的是在政治经济体制改革不断深入与房地产现代化企业制度建立中，寻找缓解、消除和打破死亡逻辑的方法和途径。而这些，也足以让我们振奋和期待，期待着在这条路上，我们不断地打破各种障碍，破解这个看似简单却充满危机的死亡逻辑。

Like many new things，The real estate industry in the first through the brutal blind and after profits，Still full of exuberant vitality，In the face of various policy environment and their own development stage must experience death logic，The government and real estate enterprises have begun to action，Just this action should not be single、desultorily，But need a system to plan as a whole，More important is in political and economic system reform deepening and the establishment of modern enterprise system of real estate，Looking for ease、Eliminate and break death logic method and way。And these，And enough to let us up and look forward to，Looking forward to on this road，We continuously break all sorts of barriers，Crack this seemingly simple but full of crisis death logic。