6月济南楼市淡季不淡，7月成交依旧持续回暖。根据济南住宅与房地产信息网数据加总，2012年7月上半月（7月1日-7月15日），济南楼市共成交新建商品房2953套，环比上月同期的2760套，增长约7%；较去年7月上半月的2384套，增长约24%。从数据可见，即便在传统淡季，无论是同比还是环比，成交量都是不减反增，这不禁让人怀疑：7月份是济南楼市的淡季吗？

June jinan market off-season not light，July clinch a deal is still sustained progress。According to the jinan residential and real estate information network data aggregation，In July 2012 first half（On July 1, - July 15,），Jinan housing a total of 2953 sets of new commodity house clinch a deal，Link last month in the same period of 2760 sets，About 7% growth；A last July first half of 2384 sets，About 24% growth。From the data visible，Even in the traditional off-season，Whether up or link，Volume is not reduced reverse increase，This can't help letting person suspect：July is the jinan market off-season？

　　淡季的时间 旺季的成交

Off-season time season clinch a deal

　　如果只看成交数据，不看时间，多数人会认为2953套是济南楼市旺季的半月成交量。但是，市场就是这样，没有绝对的淡季与旺季。数据显示，7月上半月，济南楼市共成交新建商品房2953套，其中，住宅成交1733套，与六月同期大体持平，比“红五月”同期多69套。另外，办公写字楼成交79套，商业用房25套，车库22套，地下室461套，厂房零成交，其他614套，公寓19套。

If only see clinch a deal the data，From time，Most people would think that 2953 sets of jinan is property of the season and a half months volume。but，Market is so，There is no absolute off-season and season。Data display，July first half，Jinan housing a total of 2953 sets of new commodity house clinch a deal，the，Clinch a deal housing 1733 sets，And the same period June generally flat，than“Red may”More than 69 sets of the same period。In addition，Clinch a deal office 79 sets，Commercial housing 25 sets，Garage and set，The basement of 461 sets，Workshop zero clinch a deal，Other 614 sets，Apartment and set。

　　以往6、7月是楼市的传统淡季，成交低迷、推盘量少等一向都是楼市淡季的关键词，然而今年6月份以来，济南楼市在淡季成交量逐渐企稳，不减反增，回暖特征日趋明显。

In the past six、July is the property market traditional off-season，Clinch a deal the downturn、Push plate quantity is little, etc is always the property market off-season keywords，However since June this year，Jinan market in the off-season trading volume gradually stabilises，Don't reduce reverse increase，Milder characteristics has become increasingly evident。

　　对此，内业分析指出，3月以来济南楼市成交量大大超出市场预期，这与政策微调整、开发商低开推盘、促销跑量以及刚需释放等多重因素有很大关系。“近期，央行一个月之内两度降息，这也成为楼市回暖的助推器。”该人士表示。

this，In the industry, the paper points out that，3 months jinan property market turnover greatly exceed market expectations，This and policy micro adjustment、Developers low open push plate、Promotion run quantity and just need to release and there is a great relationship between multiple factors。“recent，The central bank to cut interest rates twice a month，It also become the property market warms up in the booster。”This personage expresses。

　　此外，7月6日，央行继上次降息不满一个月之后再度降息，这对于楼市有何影响？分析人士认为，在物价持续走低、我国内外需明显不足的大背景下，央行近期的密集降息显示出了努力稳定经济增长的强烈意图。

In addition，On July 6,，The central bank to cut interest rates after the last less than one months after cut interest rates again，For the property market have any influence？Analysts believe that，In the prices keep falling、Inside and outside our country should be obvious shortage of big background，The central bank to cut interest rates in the near future dense showed efforts to stabilize the economy growing strong intention。

　　中国新闻网的新闻分析指出，一月出现两度降息堪比2008金融危机，楼市反弹在即。而《中国证券报》分析，连续降息后购房成本降低，楼市成交回暖或延续。业内人士普遍认为，楼市成交回暖几成定局，央行连续两次降息行为有助于继续推动刚需群体入市。

China news network news analysis，January appear twice cut me than 2008 financial crisis，Rebound in the property market。and《China's stock certificate report》analysis，After continuous cut purchase cost reduction，The property market clinch a deal the milder or continue。The personage inside course of study is generally accepted that，The property market clinch a deal the milder a few to stay，The central bank twice cut interest rates to continue to promote behavior just need to group entering the market。

　　市场回暖

Market thaw

　　开发商“趁热打铁”

developers“Strike while the iron is hot”

　　尽管济南楼市近期成交量回升，回暖趋势日渐明显，但是宏观调控坚决不放松，使得此轮回暖能持续的时间无法预测。因此，在市场行情比较好的时候，开发商“趁热打铁”，集中推盘，在传统淡季7月份仍然大搞优惠，是开发商借势跑量的一个表现。

Despite the recent volume jinan market rebound，Warmer trend is obvious，But the macroeconomic regulation and control resolute don't relax，Make this cycle can warm the duration of the unpredictable。therefore，In the market better，developers“Strike while the iron is hot”，Concentrated push plate，In the traditional off-season July still big make preferential，Development business is taking advantage of the amount of running a performance。

　　据了解，近期，济南一些热门楼盘都在打折优惠。其中，外海中央花园，均价6600元/平米，80-105新品房源正在认筹中；即日认筹尊享交10000元抵25000元优惠，开盘两周内签约即享500元/优惠；一次性付款96折优惠；贷款98折优惠、公积金贷款99折优惠；交房前三个月内无条件退房。济南恒大绿洲，最低3978元/平方米起，开盘8折优惠。圣泽方正园1、3号楼现在执行77折优惠，2号楼3万抵5万优惠，均价为7588元/平米起。

It is understood，recent，Jinan some popular dish in discount。the，Sea central garden，Average price 6600 yuan/square meters，80-105 new product availability is to recognize the raise；Now recognize raise honour enjoy pay 10000 yuan to 25000 yuan preferential，Opening two weeks is signed at 500 yuan/preferential；For a one-time payment of 96 discount；A loan of 98 discount、Accumulation fund loan 99 discount；In the three months into the unconditional return a house。Jinan permanent big oasis，The lowest 3978 yuan/square meters up，Opening 8 fold the preferential。Holy ze founder garden 1、3 floor now run 77 discount，Tower 2, 30000 to 50000 preferential，Average price for 7588 yuan/square meters up。

　　7月楼市或无淡季

July the property market or no off-season

　　市场仍将回暖

The market will still milder

　　据了解，7月份上半月成交量的增长以及央行降息政策的出台，不少业内预测下半年济南楼市仍将回暖，虽然会出现小幅波动，但市场会逐渐企稳。

It is understood，July first half volume growth and the central bank to cut interest rates policy appearing，A lot of the industry in the second half of the property market forecast jinan will still milder，Although will appear small-scope fluctuation，But the market will gradually stabilises。

　　但从近期地方政府频频微调政策“松绑”楼市，中央多次表态“房地产调控绝不放松”来看，下半年楼市似乎迷雾重重。有专家认为，稳增长的政策微调，各别信贷政策出现变化，客观上会助推房地产市场的回暖。但专家同时分析指出，为了防止房价出现反弹，预计下半年房地产调控政策仍将维持稳中趋紧态势，抑制不合理需求的大方向不会变化。“中央政府将要求地方政府继续严格实施各项政策。如果房价出现反复，仍可能进一步出台限制性政策。”该专家表示。

But in the recent local government adjustment policy again and again“relax”Property market，The central multiple declare“Real estate regulation will never relax”To see，The second half of the property market seems to be heavy fog。Some experts think the，Steady growth policy fine-tuning，Individual credit policy changes appear，Objectively will boost real estate market thaw。But experts also pointed out，In order to prevent prices rebounded，Expected the second half of real estate regulation policy will remain steady tightening in the situation，Control unreasonable demand way will not change。“The central government will require local government continue to strictly implement various policies。If house prices appeared again and again，Could still further issued restrictive policy。”The experts say。

　　另有业内人士指出，目前房地产市场的走势是多方博弈的结果，楼市的持续回暖，以及部分地区房价重现上涨趋势，或促使中央再出调控措施以力保房价合理，因此，下半年楼市继续低价跑量或许才是市场最好的选择。

Otherwise the personage inside course of study points out，At present the real estate market trend in is the result of the game，The property market sustained progress，And parts of the house price rising trend again，Or prompted the central to the regulation and control measures to retain reasonable prices，therefore，The second half of the property market continued to run low quantity perhaps is the market the best choice。

　　本刊记者 刘龙龙

This reporter LiuLongLong