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市场回暖预期增强 推动二季度购房者信心整体上升--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-08-17

  

  近期,上海、深圳等部分楼盘出现排队购房现象,“日光盘”的现象也在各地频频上演,从调查来看,随着市场回暖预期的增强,二季度购房者信心指数出现明显回升。

recent,Shanghai、Shenzhen and other part of the building appears the phenomenon in line,“Day CD”Phenomenon also frequently around the stage,From the survey to see,Along with the market thaw the expected increase,In the second quarter of the person that buy a house confidence index rebounded appear。

  

二季度购房者信心指数止跌回涨,达2010年2季度以来最高值 In the second quarter of the person that buy a house confidence index HuiZhang reason,2010 years since 2 quarter high

  调研结果显示:2012年第二季度中国购房者信心总体指数为106.6点,在经历了连续三个季度的下滑后首度止跌回升,创下自2010年二季度以来的新高。其中原因,主要在于:第一,从政策面看,随着银根的逐渐放松和针对首套房优惠政策的出台,消费者的购房环境在逐步好转,同时对政策放松的预期也在加重;第二,从市场成交看,二季度重点城市成交出现明显回暖,其中例如北京、广州等几乎回到了本轮调控升级之前的水平;第三,从市场供应看,开发商在二季度加快了推盘的节奏,越来越多的小户型低总价的产品入市,满足了当前以刚需为主的一个需求结构。

Research results show that:The second quarter of 2012, Chinese buyers confidence the overall index to 106.6 points,After three consecutive quarter of decline reason after the first rebound,Since 2010, a record high since the second quarter。The reasons why,Mainly lies in:The first,The policy surface see,With the gradual relaxation and monetary policy for the first suite preferential policy come on stage,Consumers' purchase environment in improving step by step,At the same time to relax the policy by the anticipation of aggravated;The second,See from market clinch a deal,The second quarter key city clinch a deal the apparent milder,Among them such as Beijing、Guangzhou almost back to this regulation to upgrade the level of before;The third,See from market supply,Developers in the second quarter, accelerate the push the rhythm of the plate,More and more small family low price products entering the market,To meet the current to just need to give priority to a demand structure。

  分维度来看,现状指数为104.7点,环比上季度上升了3.4个百分点。主要原因是消费环境的改善,例如首套房贷利率的下调,公积金贷款的放松等;预期指数为108.1点,环比上一季度上升4.6个百分点,主要原因在于购房者对未来供应量上升的预期在增强。此外值得注意的是,预期指数高于现状指数3.5个百分点,下一季度的信心指数或再创新高。

Points dimension to see,Status index for 104.7 points,Link up 3.4% last quarter。The main reason is the improvement in consumption environment,For example the first set of mortgage interest rate cut,The relaxation of the accumulation fund loan, etc;Expectations index for 108.1 points,Link up 4.6% last quarter,The main reason is that the person that buy a house on the future supply of rise is expected to strengthen。In addition it is important to note that,Expectations index above situation index 3.5%,Next quarter confidence index or hit a record high。

八成重点城市购房者信心回升,七成城市购房者信心指数超100点八成重点城市购房者信心回升,七成城市购房者信心指数超100点 Key cities for the eighty percent confidence came the person that buy a house,Seventy percent urban property buyers confidence index over 100 points

  从整体指数来看,重点城市的二季度信心指数大都较一季度有所上涨,上涨城市的占比达到80%。其中北京、广州、太原、无锡、厦门上涨幅度较大,尤其是福州,上涨幅度达到37.4点,当地民众对房地产市场信心较足。上季度,60%的重点城市购房者的信心均不足,在100点以内,处于观望状态。到了二季度,这种情况大有改善,73%的城市指数处于100点之上甚至超过110点,购房者信心大增。

From the overall index to see,The key cities for the second quarter confidence index is most of the increase in the first quarter,Rising urban reached 80%。The Beijing、guangzhou、taiyuan、wuxi、Xiamen rise to a larger extent,Especially in fuzhou,Rises to 37.4 points,The local people to the real estate market confidence is full。Last quarter,60% of the major cities of the person that buy a house are deficient confidence,In 100 points within,In wait-and-see status。In the second quarter,This kind of situation improved,Only 73% of the city's index in 100 points above even more than 110 points,The person that buy a house a confidence。

  从现状满意度指数来看,一季度购房者对于当时的现状并不满意,多数城市购房者对现状的的满意度都在100点以下甚至更低。而到了二季度,购房者的满意度都有了大幅提高,满意度提高的城市的占比达到70%。福州、广州的升幅最大,分别为33.2点和24点。说明购房者对目前房地产市场总体现状的满意度大增。

From the present situation satisfaction index to see,For the present situation of the person that buy a house in the first quarter was not satisfied,Most of the present situation of the city to the satisfaction of the person that buy a house in the 100 points or even lower。And in the second quarter,The satisfaction of the person that buy a house all have been vastly improved,Satisfaction improve city reached 70%。fuzhou、Guangzhou's biggest increase,Are 33.2 points and 24 points。Explain to the person that buy a house at present the real estate market present situation of overall satisfaction soar。

  从购房者对三季度市场的预期来看,一季度购房者的预期普遍较低,对未来市场发展的信心不足,多数城市的指数在100点以下,到了二季度,这一低迷的状况大有改善,几乎所有城市的总体预期指数都在100点之上,甚至是超出110点,因此对于第三季度的预期方面,我们认为,由于购房者对未来供应水平和消总体水平的看好,如果政策方面依然维持现状,预计三季度购房者信心指数将维持平稳,可能出现小幅度的上扬。

From the person that buy a house to the third quarter the market expected to see,Quarter of the person that buy a house is generally low expectations,For future market development of the lack of confidence,Most city index in below 100,In the second quarter,This downturn situation improved,Almost all the whole urban expectations index in 100 point above,Even more than 110 points,Therefore, as for the third quarter in the expected,We think,Because of the person that buy a house on the future supply level and elimination of the overall level of value,If the policy is still maintaining the status quo,The third quarter is expected to buyers confidence index will remain stable,May appear small amplitude of the increase。

   八成重点城市购房者信心回升,七成城市购房者信心指数超100点

  调查背景:2012年第二季度中国购房者信心指数调研周期持续近三个月。调研范围涉及北京、长春、成都、大连、福州、广州、贵阳、海口、杭州、合肥、济南、南昌、南京、上海、沈阳、 天津、无锡、武汉、厦门、重庆等25座城市,涵盖华北、华东、华南、华中、西南等重点区域。

Research background:The second quarter of 2012, Chinese buyers confidence index research period lasted for about three months。Research scope in Beijing、changchun、chengdu、dalian、fuzhou、guangzhou、guiyang、haikou、hangzhou、hefei、jinan、nanchang、nanjing、Shanghai、shenyang、 tianjin、wuxi、wuhan、xiamen、Chongqing 25 city,Covers north China、East China、South China、Central China、Such key southwest area。

  购房者信心指数数据说明:中国购房者信心指数采用两百点制计算,100点为购房信心指数的临界点,100以下为信心不足,100以上为信心较足;具体为:0点最低表示购房完全没有信心; 50点表示信心度极低;100点表示一般有信心; 150点表示很有信心;200点最高,为完全有信心。

The person that buy a house confidence index data description:Chinese buyers confidence index using two hundred point system calculation,100 points for the confidence index of the critical point,100 the following is lack of confidence,More than 100 for confidence a foot;Specific for:0 point minimum purchase said no confidence; 50 point said confidence degree is extremely low;100 point said general confidence; 150 point said very confident;The highest 200 points,For all confidence。



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