未来五年行业洗牌加剧

In the future five years industry reshuffle aggravate

　　开发商亟待轻资产转型

Developers to asset light transformation

　　阴雪

Yin snow

　　[ 过去房地产市场中，政府靠卖地赚钱、开发商靠囤地赚钱、炒房者靠买房赚钱的暴利时代已经一去不复返了 ]

[in the past in the real estate market，The government of sale by money、According to the developers to make money by、The form of the profits to make money by buying a house gone are the days]

　　在宏观调控对市场产生重要影响的住宅地产行业，对于行业走势的判断，目前成为影响企业下一步生存和发展的关键所在。

In the macroeconomic regulation and control have an important impact on the market of residential real estate industry，For the industry trend judgment，At present become the influence enterprise survival and development of key。

　　8月2日，中国指数研究院发布的《未来五年房地产住宅市场趋势》专题报告（下称《报告》）显示，在调控政策的引导下，首次置业需求和首次改善需求，将是未来五年支撑中国住宅市场快速发展的主要动力。“此次调控是一次影响游戏规则的调控，行业将迎来重新洗牌。”对此，经济学家赵晓表示，过去房地产市场中，政府靠卖地赚钱、开发商靠囤地赚钱、炒房者靠买房赚钱的暴利时代已经一去不复返了。

On August 2,，China index research institute of release《The next five year real estate residential market trend》Special reports（said《The report》）display，In the regulation and control policy under the guidance of，First-time home buyers demand for the first time and improve the demand，Will be the next five years to support China's housing market fast development of main power。“The regulation is a influence rules of the game regulation，Industry will have to shuffle。”this，Economists ZhaoXiao said，In the past in the real estate market，The government of sale by money、According to the developers to make money by、The form of the profits to make money by buying a house gone are the days。

　　《报告》显示，未来五年，重点城市住宅成交量将持续上升，但增速在2013年后会逐步趋缓，复合增速为6.5%，2016年成交面积可达2.6亿平方米；供应量增速在2013年达到17.4%的高点后逐步放缓，预计2016年新批上市面积达2.4亿平方米，复合增长率为11.5%。

《The report》display，The next five years，Key city residential turnover will continue to rise，But growth in 2013 years will gradually slowed，Compound growth was 6.5%，In 2016, clinch a deal the area of 260 million square meters；Supply growth in 2013 reached 17.4% after peak gradually slow，In 2016 is expected to a new batch of listed area of 240 million square meters，Compound growth rate of 11.5%。

　　一个明显的迹象是，未来五年，重点城市的刚需成交总量、首次置业和首次改善需求都将稳步上升，年均复合增长率分别达到6.3%、5.8%和6.8%；刚需市场供应总量、首次置业和首次改善供应量都将一直维持上升趋势，年均复合增速分别达到11.8%、11.3%和12.3%，2016年分别达到1020万平方米、516万平方米和504万平方米。

An obvious indication is，The next five years，Major cities just need to clinch a deal amount、For the first time for the first time home buyers and improve demand will rise steadily，With an average annual compound growth rate reached 6.3%、5.8% and 6.8%；Just need to market supply amount、First-time home buyers for the first time and improve the supply will keep rising trend，With an average annual compound growth to 11.8%、11.3% and 12.3%，In 2016 reached 10.2 million square meters、5.16 million square meters and 5.04 million square meters。

　　基于此，《报告》判断，以首次置业和首次改善型需求为代表的刚性需求，将成为支撑住宅市场未来发展的主要动力，而一线城市以及一些快速发展的二线城市，将比其他地区具有更持续的增长潜力。

Based on this，《The report》judgment，For the first time in the first home buyers and improve type demand as a representative of rigid demand，Will be a support for the future development of residential market main power，And a line city and some rapid development of second city，Will than other regions have a more sustained growth potential。

　　“人流和钱流决定了城市房地产发展的潜力。如北京过去十年，平均每年递增60万人口，直接推动了住宅市场的需求。”住宅和城乡建设部政策研究中心主任秦虹对此表示。

“People and money can be pumped decided to the urban real estate development potential。Such as Beijing over the past ten years，Average annual increasing population of 600000，Directly led to the demand of the housing market。”Housing and rural construction policy research center director QinHong expressed。

　　与此同时，在国家调控政策的持续打压下，住宅投资投机型需求将受到抑制。“即便限购取消，只要信贷政策仍旧维持对多套置业的高杠杆，那么投资住宅的回报率便不会太高。以投资为重要基础的中高端住宅市场的需求，将受到明显抑制。”

meanwhile，In the national regulation policy of continuous under pressure，Housing investment demand will cast type is restrained。“Even if is restricted to cancel，As long as the credit policy is still maintain the many sets of real estate high lever，So the rate of return on investment house will not be too high。The investment to the important basis of high-end residential market demand，Will be significantly inhibited。”

　　资深投资银行家滕威林称，尽管现在住宅产业受到国家宏观政策的严厉调控，但对于国内住宅开发商来讲，目前仍然存在着向轻资产转型的窗口机会。“其实中国人更适合做轻资产的服务业，例如养老地产、酒店等，而且现在的资本市场是很愿意为服务业、为轻资产埋单的。”

Senior investment bankers TengWeiLin says，Although housing industry now by national macro policy strict regulation，But for the domestic housing developers speaking，At present there still exist to asset light transition opportunity window。“In fact the Chinese more suitable for light asset services，For example endowment real estate、Hotel, etc，And now the capital market is very willing to service industry、For light assets of the bill。”