2012年8月9日，“平衡与发展 可持续的中国房地产”2012博鳌房地产论坛正式开幕。论坛组委会消息显示，2012博鳌房地产论坛出席嘉宾阵容和参会人数,均已确定超越此前任何一届。 此次论坛嘉宾阵容雄厚，国内知名地产大腕、专家学者等均出席了2012博鳌房地产论坛。

On August 9, 2012，“Balance and sustainable development of China's real estate”2012 boao real estate BBS formal opening。BBS organizing committee news show，2012 boao real estate BBS guests attending the squad and the number of participants,All has determined after the beyond any。 The BBS guests strong squad，The well-known domestic real estate top notch、Experts and scholars all attended the 2012 boao real estate BBS。

　　北京首都创业集团有限公司总经理、首创置业股份有限公司董事长刘晓光发表了《挑战与认识》的主题演讲，他认为今年房地产市场形势非常严峻，三四季度面临政策、金融环境以及开发模式的挑战，房企必须要创新，在竞争过程中肯定是强者胜，快船超慢船。

Beijing capital venture group limited company general manager、The real estate co., LTD., chairman of the board LiuXiaoGuang published《Challenges and know》Theme speech，He think this year real estate market situation is very serious，Three or four quarters facing policy、The financial environment and development mode of the challenge，Room enterprises must want to innovate，In the process of competition must be strong wins，The clippers super slow boat。

　　从另一方面来讲，在政策压力下，也有些好的方面，比如房地产行业转型步伐加快，以综合开发业开发的多种业态形式的变化，在行业内部分化的趋势也比较明显，过去过于扁平化、过于分化的行业结构开始得到改变。当然，宏观调控形势还是很严峻，调控政策依旧严格。

On the other hand，In the policy under pressure，Also some good，Such as the real estate industry to speed up the pace of transformation，With comprehensive development industry development of a variety of formats form of change，In the industry trend of differentiation are obvious，The past is too flat、Too differentiation of industry structure began to get change。Of course，The macroeconomic regulation and control the situation is still very grim，Regulation and control policy is still strictly。

　　十八大即将召开，下一步地产行业将会遇到什么样的挑战呢？简单概括一下。

Eighteen big forthcoming，The next step will be the real estate industry to meet what kind of challenge？Simple to summarize the。

　　首先，政策体系下的挑战，可能会出现暴风周，可能会出现阴云，也可能有灿烂的阳光。在这里讲几个问题，第一个问题是中国房地产发展的模型到底是什么？现在，我觉得还没有最后确定。过去是分配房，后来走到了商品房制度，这两年是所谓的双轨制，或者是所谓的三轨制，保障房、商品房，加上少量的集资房。这个还要看明年3、4月份新的制度体系和政治体系，我想这也不是危言耸听，也可能在经济下滑的时候，还会出现新的调整政策，关键看市场的稳定性了。

First of all，Under the policy system of the challenge，There might be a week of the storm，May appear dark clouds，There might also be brilliant sunshine。Tell here a few questions，The first problem is China's real estate development model exactly is what？now，I think that has not yet been finalized。The past is distribution room，Then go to the commodity house system，The two years is the so-called double track system，Or is the so-called third rail system，Safeguard room、Commodity house，Add a small amount of JiZiFang。This will see next year 3、April new system and political system，I think this is not exceptional，Also may be in the economic downturn，Also will have a new adjustment policy，Depends on the stability of the market。

　　前一段有人传很多股票下跌了很多，有人说要取消预售了。当然，这也是行政手段最严厉的一个东西了。但是，我想暂时不会。我们的经营环境、经营制度还不能支撑取消预售的条件，那将是整个系统的振荡，那将是影响方方面面的情况。制度因素还在制约着政策环境调控体系的挑战性。

Long ago someone pass many stocks fell a lot，Someone says to want to cancel the pre-sale。Of course，This is the most severe administrative means a thing。but，I think not for a while。Our business environment、Management system can not support cancel pre-sale conditions，That will be the whole system oscillation，That will be the influence aspects。System factor is still in restricts the policy environment regulation system challenging。

　　第二大挑战是金融生态环境的挑战。今年以来，各种融资途径都出现了艰难，通过资本之外的直接融资比重虽然有所提高，但还是有很高的挑战，银行没有松口，下一步会不会松？会是什么样的金融环境？对于企业来讲，还是一个很大的挑战。现在以追求短期回报的信托资金为主，期限短，要求回报率高，粗犷的盈利方式风险肯定很大。

The second challenge is the challenge of financial ecological environment。Since this year，All kinds of financing ways has difficult，Through the capital outside of the proportion of direct financing although improved，But there are still a high challenge，The bank has no let go，The next step will not loose？Will be what kind of financial environment？For corporations，Or a big challenge。Now to the pursuit of short-term returns trust capital is given priority to，Short term，Request high return，Straightforward profit way must be great risk。

　　在发达国家，开发商与投资商是分开的，有长期的养老金等资金的支撑，资金间接融资的比重可能只有20%多一点，我们正好倒过来了。那么，我们会遇到一个什么样的金融环境？我想，开完十八大以后，可能也不会很快地放资金。那么，这就有两个问题了。一个方面是，我们需要核心型的基金发展，这种基金可能区别于投资型基金，是以长期为房地产业服务的，在未来五年中，预售、贷款、证券、信托、基金、保险公司租赁等渠道，可能还要打组合牌，当然私募也是一种大的方向。

In developed countries，Developers and investor is separate，Have a long-term annuities fund support，The proportion of funds indirect financing may only a little more than 20%，We just the other way around the。so，We will encounter a what kind of financial environment？I want to，After the meeting after eighteen big，Probably won't soon put money。so，This would be two problems。A is，We need to core type of fund development，This kind of fund may be different from investment funds，Based on long-term for the real estate industry service，In the next five years，Open to booking a、loan、securities、trust、fund、The insurance company leasing channel，May also play combination brand，Of course private is also a kind of big direction。

　　第三大挑战是开发模式的挑战。行业可能要走优化升级的必经之路，目前的企业到底采取什么样的开发模式？中国房地产未来模式的创新可能是企业的核心竞争力，大家知道城市化率还要再提高，作为首创提出要改变视野立脚点，我们的视野不在于地产，而在于城市；不在于开发，而在于整体运营。

The third challenge is the challenge of development mode。Industry may have to go the way of optimization and upgrading，The present enterprise exactly what kind of development model？China's real estate future patterns of innovation may be the core competition of enterprises，As we all know urbanization rate will go up，As the first put forward to change builds a vision，Our field of vision is not real estate，But in the city；Does not lie in the development，But in the whole operation。

　　传统的地产投资模式无法再支撑新的浪潮，从战略层面来讲，要推动大城市圈的新生项目，一、二级联动的开发方式要坚持，要坚持综合性的发展，而并非单一的发展，要引入大量的产业服务机制和产业内容，全面整合包括经济、商业、民生、社会、人文等等。

The traditional real estate investment mode can no longer support the new wave，Will tell from a strategic level，To promote the city circle of new project，a、Secondary linkage development way to insist on，To adhere to the comprehensive development，Not a single development，To introduce a lot of industry service mechanism and industrial content，Comprehensive and integrated include economic、business、The livelihood of the people、social、Humanities and so on。

　　当然，我们做了很多尝试。比如，打造世界级城市边上的新市镇；城市核心区域新核心区域的建设，包括海口。还有建高端旅游聚集区项目，包括最近的昆山项目等等。还有，中等城市的新城市中心，做了很多奥特莱斯。那么，还有国际物流的东西，文化创意的东西等等，我就不多说了，模式创新在下一步可能是核心竞争力的问题。

Of course，We do a lot of try。For example，Makes the world-class city on the edge of the new town；The urban core area new core area construction，Including haikou。There are built of high-end tourism accumulation area project，Including the recent kunshan project and so on。and，Medium city new city center，Do a lot of outlets。so，There are international logistics things，Culture creative things, etc，I will not say more，Model innovation in the next step may be the core competitiveness of the problem。

　　第四大挑战是行业整理利润盈利回归的挑战。行业经过了十五年需求的高增长，在数字上有所回落。在这种情况下，一种是合理的利润空间，先前行业中某些不合理的利润可能要下来了。另外，代表着优胜劣汰的理性市场规律，也使得我们的利润下跌。在这里面两类企业具有明显的优势，一类是形成规模效应的，增长速度很快的企业；二是在土地价值深度挖掘方面有独特方式的企业，土地成本使得行业利润下降的情况下，土地成本成为了利润的核心指标之一。

The fourth big challenge is industry consolidation profit earnings regression challenge。Industry after 15 years of demand growth，In number down from their recent highs。In this case，One kind is reasonable profit space，Previous industry in some unreasonable profits may be down。In addition，On behalf of the survival of the fittest rational market rules，Also makes our falling profits。In this inside two kinds of enterprise has obvious advantages，One kind is formed the scale effect，Growth enterprise；The other is the land value depth excavation has unique way of the enterprise，Land cost make industry under the condition of falling profits，Land cost became the core of one of profit index。

　　第五大挑战是商业地产的挑战，有些地方已经发生了商业地产的过剩，有些被套牢，有些在洗牌，在自我淘汰等等。我的一个观点是，中国的大城市圈，京津、长三角、珠三角还是很有前景的。我的一个观点是，在这种挑战中，要做商业地产，先做商业人，先有商业的竞争力，由于时间关系不能展开，我们有很多经验和教训，如果要做商业地产的话，要把握好，才能应对挑战。

The fifth big challenge is the challenge of commercial real estate，Some places has been commercial real estate excess，Some were hung up，Some in the shuffle，In the self selection and so on。One of my view is，Of the big cities in China ring，The beijing-tianjin、Long triangle、The pearl river delta is still promising。One of my view is，In this challenge，To do commercial real estate，Business people to do first，First the competitiveness of business，For the time being can't spread，We have a lot of experience and lessons，If you want to do commercial real estate words，To grasp，To meet the challenge。

　　第六大挑战是企业在竞争中分化了挑战。将来可能出现两类企业，一类是规模化、标准化、高增长的大企业；二是专注于某一细分市场的领先者，比如商业地产、教育地产、养老地产、旅游地产等等，可能最后还是要立足于自己的现实情况。

The sixth big challenge is the enterprise in the competition challenges differentiation。The future may be two kind of enterprise，Kind is scale、standardization、The big enterprise growth；The second is focused on a certain segments of the market leader，Such as commercial real estate、Education real estate、Endowment real estate、Tourism real estate and so on，May finally must based on their own reality。

　　第七大挑战是走老路，还是进行创新的挑战。我要讲的观点是，我们的企业再着老的套路打下去可能走不下去了，老套路可能走不动了，这就需要企业家要有企业家的冒险精神。那么，所谓的创新，最核心的，也是最灵魂的东西，可能是企业的商业模式、发展模式的创新，当然还有很多创新，包括管理创新、人文创新等等。那么，我的观点是，中国经济经过二三十年的高速增长，已经走到了下滑的通道，在这种通道过程中，我们的改革也遇到了一些天花板，在这种情况下来讲，如果说我们仍然按照老的路子、老的框架走下去，走不通。因为，我们还不能很快知道新办法是什么，新路子是什么，这就要求我们创新，需要企业家有企业家的冒险精神，希望我们以颠覆性游戏改变者的身份来出现，当然每个企业有每个企业的具体情况，就不多说了。

The seventh largest challenge is to follow the beaten track，Or the challenge of innovation。I want to tell you view is，Our enterprise to the old routine play down may go not bottom go to，Old routines may can't walk anymore，This needs entrepreneurs to have entrepreneurial spirit of adventure。so，The so-called innovation，The core of，Is also the soul of the things，May is the enterprise business model、Development patterns of innovation，Of course there are a lot of innovation，Including management innovation、Human innovation and so on。so，My point is，China's economy after two hundred and thirty years of growth，Has come to declining channel，In this channel process，Our reform also met with some ceiling，In this case the down and speak，If we still according to the old way、Old frame go on，Go impassability。because，We can't soon know new way is??????，A new way is what，This requests us innovation，Need to entrepreneurs have entrepreneurial spirit of adventure，I hope we to disruptive game changer's identity to appear，Of course, every enterprise has the specific circumstances of each enterprise，Not much said。

　　最后，我要讲的是，危中有机，人有我有，人无我有，在竞争过程中肯定是强者胜，快船超慢船。

finally，I want to tell you is，Dangerous in organic，People have I have，A man without I have，In the process of competition must be strong wins，The clippers super slow boat。