面对住宅产业十多年高速发展后何去何从，不少开发商已经并正在进行着"没有现成经验"的突围。其中，城市综合体的开发，不约而同地成为越来越多开发商的新选择。

In the face of the housing industry rapid development for more than ten years after what course to follow，Many developers have been and are"No ready experience"Sally。the，The development of urban synthesis，To become more and more developers new choice。

　　看世界潮流，判广州楼市未来

See the world trend，Sentenced to guangzhou property market future

　　按世界银行的房地产发展周期理论，当人均GDP超过1万美元时，住宅地产将逐步萎缩并向商业服务型地产过渡；当人均GDP超过1.5万美元时，将全面开启CBD复合商业的黄金时代。

According to the world bank's real estate development cycle theory，When per capita GDP over 10000 dollars，Residential real estate will gradually atrophy and commercial service to real estate transition；When per capita GDP over 15000 dollars，Will be fully open CBD composite commercial's golden age。

　　合富辉煌提供的数据显示，2011年末，珠三角的深圳、广州、佛山、珠海等地人均GDP已突破或接近1.5万美元。全国城市化率达到51.27%，广州则在80%以上，接近尾声。十年内，广州市人口将达到1800万的可承载极限，住房需求将停滞不前。另外，独生子女一代十余年后将陆续继承父母房屋遗产，双独家庭普遍拥有3套以上住房，二手房交易量将占据80%以上的住宅交易市场。

Close rich brilliant to provide the data display，By the end of 2011，Pearl river delta shenzhen、guangzhou、foshan、Zhuhai, per capita GDP already breakthrough or close to $15000。The national urbanization rate reached 51.27%，Guangzhou is in more than 80%，Near the end。Ten years，Guangzhou the population will be over 18 million can load limit，Housing demand will come to a standstill。In addition，One-child generation after more than 10 years in succession will inherit their parents house heritage，Double single family generally have more than three sets of housing，Second-hand house volume will occupy more than 80% of the housing market。

　　限购被迫转型？主动推进升级！

Forced transformation is restricted？Active propulsion upgrade！

　　受调控限制下的住宅市场，今年五六月份一手住宅成交反弹，阳光家缘数据显示，十区新建商品住房网上签约面积为64.84万平方米，同比增加18.5%。即便如此，与广州楼市高峰期每月动辄八九十万平方米的成交量相比，已不可同日而语。"广州十区商品住宅每年约600万平方米的成交量将会成为常态，绝对不会恢复到2009年978万平方米的高成交量。"合富辉煌首席分析师黎文江指出，抑制投机投资需求，是房地产调控的长期政策，即使限购取消，仍然会有替代政策继续抑制投机投资需求。因此，房企必须改变无奈于限购而被迫转型商业地产的错误思维，而要顺应房地产业今后的发展趋势，把握新型城市化发展带来的机遇，主动推进地产转型升级。

Under limited by regulation of the housing market，June or may this year of a residential clinch a deal the rebound，Sunshine house edge data display，Ten area new commodity housing online contract covers an area of 648400 square meters，Increased by 18.5% year-on-year。Even so，With guangzhou property market peak monthly frequently 8.9 million square meters compared to volume，Already cannot be mentioned in the same breath。"Guangzhou commodity residential house ten area every year about 6 million square meters of volume will become normal，Never to return to 2009 9.78 million square meters high volume。"Close rich brilliant chief analyst pointed out that LiWenJiang，Inhibition of speculative investment demand，Is the real estate regulation policy for a long time，Even if is restricted to cancel，There will still be alternative policies continue to inhibit speculative investment demand。therefore，Room enterprises must change but was forced to be restricted in the transformation of the commercial real estate wrong thinking，To conform to the trend of the development of real estate industry in the future，Grasp the opportunities brought about by the new urbanization development，Actively promote the transformation and upgrading of real estate。

　　城市综合体，市场方各取所需

City synthesis，The market square each takes what he needs

　　据戴德梁行估计，广州全市及周边在建和将建的城市综合体项目超过20个，体量动辄超过30万平方米。2010年广州白云万达广场奠基时，万达集团董事长王健林曾表示，要在广州做10个万达广场项目，规划以每年一个的速度进行。

According to DaiDeLiang line estimation，Guangzhou city and the surrounding construction and will be built city complex project more than 20，Mass is prone to more than 300000 square meters。In 2010, when wanda plaza, guangzhou baiyun foundation，Wanda group chairman of the board WangJianLin has said，In guangzhou to do 10 wanda plaza project，Planning a year to a speed。

　　戴德梁行策略研究顾问部董事黎庆文表示，城市综合体"时髦"起来，主要有两个原因：一是住宅受调控影响，波动性大，开发商尤其是上市房企为了报表好看，需要一些商业项目来对冲风险。二是开发商打着做城市综合体的旗号，为拿到更好的地块，增加谈判条件。政府卖地的思维也在变，从住宅用地转向城市综合体，可以变成一个城市的地标性工程，带动就业、税收及周边土地的升值。老百姓也能得到便利，商业配套、生活服务就在旁边。

DaiDeLiang line strategy research advisory department director LiQingWen said，City synthesis"fashionable"up，There are two main reasons why：A house is by the regulation effect，Volatility big，Developers especially listed room enterprises in order to report good-looking，Need some commercial projects to hedge risk。The second is developers under the city synthesis banner，To get better block，Increase negotiation conditions。The government of the thinking of sale also change，From the housing land to urban complex，Can become a city landmarks sex engineering，Promotes employment、Tax and the surrounding land appreciation。Common people can also get convenience，Supporting business、Life service in side。

　　一位不愿透露姓名的业内人士更一针见血地指出，城市综合体背后，开发商变身为城市运营商，这势必让地方政府与开发商的利益联系更加紧密。

One does not wish to disclose the name of the personage inside course of study points out that more straight from the shoulder，Behind the city synthesis，Developers change as city operators，This certainly will let the interests of the local government and developers more closely。