广州房价涨了还是跌了？广州市国土房管局昨日发布的《2012年6月广州市10区房地产市场运行情况的通报》显示，广州上月市辖10区一手房网上签约面积达64.84万平方米，同比增加18.5%，而网上签约均价13726元/平方米，同比上涨6.3%，环比下跌0.5%。

Guangzhou house prices rise or fall？Guangzhou bureau of land room canal released yesterday《June 2012 guangzhou 10 area real estate market operation bulletin》display，Guangzhou city last month 10 area and a room online contract area of 648400 square meters，Increased by 18.5% year-on-year，And online signing average price 13726 yuan/square meters，Rose 6.3% year-on-year，Chain fell 0.5%。

　　广州市房协昨日专门发布分析报告称，由于目前中心6区和周边4区交易价格差距较大，交易结构变化对交易均价影响较大，消除了交易结构影响的价格指数更能反映当前市场情况。

Guangzhou houses for shops association yesterday issued special analysis report，Because at present the center 6 area and surrounding 4 area market price difference is bigger，Trade structure change on trade influence on average，Eliminate the transaction structure influence more price index can reflect the current market situation。

　　专题撰文

Writing project

　　南方日报记者 郑佳欣

Southern daily reporter ZhengJiaXin

　　实习生 王方

Interns WangFang

　　房价

House prices

　　7区房价在上涨

7 area house prices on the rise

　　楼市成交持续回升，房价跟着涨了吗？国家统计局前日发布了6月份70个大中城市房价统计数据，其中新建商品住宅销售价格环比上涨的城市急剧攀升至25个，北上广赫然在列，广州上月房价环比略涨0.2%。

Clinch a deal the property market continue to rise，House prices follow up？The national bureau of statistics released the day before yesterday in June 70 large and medium-sized cities housing prices statistical data，The new commodity housing sale price link rising city rise sharply to 25，North wide impressively in the column，Guangzhou house price link slightly last month rose 0.2%。

　　昨日，广州市国土房管局却给出了不同的答案：6月，广州全市10区新建商品住宅网上签约均价13726元/平方米，同比上涨6.3%，环比下降0.5%。这也是广州连续第三个月一手房价保持在1.3万元/平方米关口。

yesterday，Guangzhou bureau of land room canal but gives different answers：June，Guangzhou city 10 area new commodity housing online signing average price 13726 yuan/square meters，Rose 6.3% year-on-year，Link fell by 0.5%。This is also a third consecutive month in guangzhou prices remain at 13000 yuan/square metre passes。

　　从数据上看，除荔湾区、越秀区和黄埔区外，其余7区一手房价均应声上涨。其中，天河一手住宅网签均价高达30327元/平方米，领跑全市，越秀则以28903元/平方米的一手房网签均价紧随其后。白云区、天河区和花都区分别以12.6%、9.9%和5.8%的涨幅位居广州一手房价环比涨幅前三名。

From the data on the，In addition to the liwan district、Yuexiu district and huangpu area，The rest of the seven area a house prices are rising answer。the，Tianhe a residential net sign average price as high as 30327 yuan/square meters，Leading the city，Yuexiu criterion with 28903 yuan/square meters of a FangWang sign followed by average。Baiyun area、Huadu district in tianhe district and 12.6% respectively、9.9% and 5.8% of the increase in house prices in guangzhou increase link the top three。

　　广州市国土房管局还列出了全市各街道新建商品住宅签约均价情况。其中，天河区猎德街上月以35346元/平方米的均价再度高居全市街道房价之首。

Guangzhou bureau of land room canal in the city the streets are also listed out for new signing commodity residential house average situation。the，On the street the tianhe district hunting German in 35346 yuan/square meters of average high again the city streets of house prices。

　　广州市国土房管局解释称，主要是由于该街道本月成交的69宗住宅中，有60宗坐落于嘉裕花园、9宗坐落于珠江璟园，这两个楼盘的成交价格较高。

Guangzhou bureau of land room canal explanation says，This is mainly due to the street to clinch a deal in the residence of 69 cases，Have 60 cases located YuJiaYu garden、9 cases located in the pearl river Jing garden，The two building dish clinch a deal the price is higher。

　　成交

Clinch a deal

　　番禺成交量超中心6区

Panyu volume super center 6 area

　　自3月份呈现回暖迹象以来，广州楼市的成交量就一路攀升，上月广州楼市交出的成交成绩单尽管难以压过红5月的成交记录，但是仍然是楼市调控下的成交高位。数据显示，6月广州新建商品住宅网上签约面积64.84万平方米，同比增加18.5%，环比减少8.8%。

Since march since present signs warmer，Guangzhou housing turnover is climbing，Last month the guangzhou property market surrender to clinch a deal the transcript although difficult to drown out red may clinch a deal record，But is still under the control of the property market clinch a deal high。Data display，June guangzhou new commodity housing online contract area of 648400 square meters，Increased by 18.5% year-on-year，Link reduced by 8.8%。

　　其中，越秀、海珠、荔湾、天河、白云、黄埔6区合计新建商品住宅网上签约面积19.05万平方米，同比增加17.9%，环比减少19.6%。

the，yuexiu、haizhu、Li wan、tianhe、baiyun、Huangpu 6 area total new commodity housing online contract area of 190500 square meters，Increased by 17.9% year-on-year，Link reduced by 19.6%。

　　记者看到，在广州各区中，仅有番禺和花都成交上涨，其余均在下跌，其中萝岗区一手住宅网上签约面积跌幅最大，从5月份的3.50万平方米下降到1.92万平方米，环比下跌45.1%。番禺则以20.14万平方米的成交量，高居全市第一，甚至超过了中心6区的总成交量。

The reporter sees，In guangzhou in the district，Only panyu flower and rising clinch a deal，The rest are in the fall，The luogang rose a residential area of the largest online signing fall，From May 35000 square meters descend to 19200 square meters，Chain fell 45.1%。Panyu criterion with 201400 square meters of volume，At the first，Even more than the central and the total volume。

　　广州市国土房管局还抽取2012年5月和6月成交面积均大于5000平方米的27个典型楼盘的网上签约情况，均价涨幅超过5%的楼盘有4个，均价基本保持不变的楼盘有21个，均价跌幅超过5%的楼盘有2个。记者看到，南沙时代山湖海花园跌得最凶，从5月的10678元/平方米一下跌至上月的9678元/平方米，跌幅高达9.4%。

Guangzhou bureau of land room canal also extraction in May 2012 and June were clinch a deal area more than 5000 square meters of 27 typical building online contract situation，Average rose more than 5% of the buildings there are four，Average basic remain unchanged building 21，Average price fell more than 5% of the buildings there are two。The reporter sees，Nansha era mountain lake sea garden fell the most fierce，From May 10678 yuan/square meters last month a down to 9678 yuan/square meters，Fall is as high as 9.4%。

　　记者还发现，在成交量持续保持高位的情况下，广州楼市的供应逐渐加速。数据显示，上月广州全市10区批准预售商品住宅4824套，同比增加2.9%，环比增加38.3%。

Reporter also found that，In the volume under the condition of continuous remain high，Guangzhou property market supply accelerate gradually。Data display，Guangzhou city last month 10 area approved open to booking commodity housing 4824 sets，Increased by 2.9% year-on-year，Link increased by 38.3%。

　　库存量仍在增长 供过于求是常态

Inventory is still in the growth supply exceeds demand is normal

　　预期

expected

　　“当前广州市辖10区新建商品住房库存量仍达531.46万平方米，相当于2011年全年交易量。”针对当前房地产市场形势，广州市房协昨日专门发布楼市分析意见，广州市房协专家委员会相关负责人对一系列楼市焦点问题作出了解答。该负责人指出，广州楼市上半年库存量仍呈增长态势，供过于求的局面仍将较长时间内存在。

“The current guangzhou 10 area and new commodity housing inventory is still 5.3146 million square meters，The equivalent of 2011 annual trade volume。”In view of the current real estate market situation，Guangzhou houses for shops association yesterday issued special property analysis opinion，Guangzhou houses for shops expert committee of the relevant person in charge of a series of the property market to focus problems made answer。This person in charge pointed out that，Guangzhou property market is still in the first half of the inventory is a growing trend，Supply exceeds demand situation will still exist inside for a long time。

　　市区郊区房价差距大

Urban suburban house prices big difference

　　市房协专家委员会相关负责人指出，近2年广州实施房地产调控的成效是明显的，市场已经出现积极变化：投资性购房需求得到有效抑制，住宅成交量同比大幅下降；新建商品住宅价格过快上涨势头得到遏制，价格平稳，2011年广州市辖十区新建住房均价12988元/平方米，同比上升2.6%（其中，新建商品住房均价13401元/平方米，同比上升2.5%），房价涨幅低于同期的GDP增幅8.4个百分点，低于同期的CPI2.8个百分点，顺利完成了2011年新建住房价格控制目标；市场供求关系逐渐趋于平衡。

Houses for shops association committee of experts pointed out that the relevant person in charge，The nearly 2 years implementation of guangzhou real estate regulation and control effect is obvious，The market has appeared positive changes：Investment pent-up demand to be effectively controlled，Residential turnover year-on-year decline sharply；New commodity housing price hikes in momentum be contained，Stable price，In 2011, guangzhou ten area and new housing average price 12988 yuan/square meters，Up 2.6%（the，New commodity housing average price 13401 yuan/square meters，Up 2.5%），Housing price is lower than the same period GDP growth of 8.4%，Less than in the same period of CPI2.8，Successfully completed the 2011 new housing price control target；The relation between market supply and demand gradually tends to equilibrium。

　　市房协专家委员会相关负责人指出，当前广州市辖10区新建商品住房库存量仍达531.46万平方米，相当于2011年全年交易量；市场吸纳率有所提升，已到达96%，但仍低于100%，表明库存还在增加。目前，上半年库存量仍呈增长态势，供过于求的局面仍将较长时间内存在。

Houses for shops association committee of experts pointed out that the relevant person in charge，The current guangzhou 10 area and new commodity housing inventory is still 5.3146 million square meters，The equivalent of 2011 annual trade volume；The market absorption rate increase，Have reached 96%，But is still less than 100%，Show that inventory is on the increase。At present，In the first half of the inventory is still is a growing trend，Supply exceeds demand situation will still exist inside for a long time。

　　对于房价的变化，该负责人表示，据国家统计局每月公布的全国70个大中城市住房销售价格指数，广州新建商品住宅销售价格呈继续回落态势，同比价格指数由100以上跌至100以下。“由于目前中心6区和周边4区交易价格差距较大，交易结构变化对交易均价影响较大，消除了交易结构影响的价格指数更能反映当前市场情况。”

For the change of house prices，This person in charge said，According to the national bureau of statistics released a month of the national 70 large and medium-sized cities housing sales price index，Guangzhou new commodity housing sales prices continue to fall the situation，By more than 100 year-on-year price index dropped to below 100。“Because at present the center 6 area and surrounding 4 area market price difference is bigger，Trade structure change on trade influence on average，Eliminate the transaction structure influence more price index can reflect the current market situation。”

　　该负责人还表示，在土地市场方面，住宅土地市场成交仍较为低迷，基本均为底价成交，企业拿地信心未明显提振。

The official also said，In the aspect of land market，Residential land market clinch a deal is still relatively low，Basic are base price clinch a deal，Enterprise take to boost confidence is not obvious。

　　为何连续两月逆市放量？

Why continuous two months inverse city peatlands？

　　市房协专家委员会相关负责人分析了今年5、6月份房地产市场逆市放量的主要原因：

The relevant person in charge of the houses for shops expert committee analyzed 5 this year、June the real estate market, the main reason for the inverse tumbled：

　　降息、支持刚性住房需求等金融信贷政策调整带来的利好，虽然实际影响不明显，但短期效应积极。

Cut interest rates、Support rigid housing demand, and other financial credit policy adjustment brings good，Although the actual effect is not obvious，But the short-term effect positive。

　　在近2年一系列的调控政策抑制下，累积的刚性购房需求开始释放。

In recent two years a series of regulation and control policy under the suppression，The accumulation of rigid to release pent-up demand。

　　5、6月新建商品住房交易均价同比出现一定涨幅，房价属结构性上涨，主要原因在于144平方米以上大户型高档住宅成交占比上升。

5、June new commodity housing transaction average price year-on-year increase in certain，House price is rising structural，The main reason is that more than 144 square meters large family of high-grade residential clinch a deal than rise。

　　市房协专家委员会相关负责人认为，综合以上分析，目前广州房地产市场仍处于稳中趋降的态势，国家调控政策导向也没有提振市场的动力，因此，当前市场是总体态势下的正常波动，今后还有可能出现类似的波动，影响市场的不确定因素增加。

Houses for shops association committee of experts related officials think，Integrated the above analysis，Guangzhou real estate market at present is still in the stability of the situation，National adjustment and control policies, guide also didn't boost the market power，therefore，The current market is the overall situation of the normal fluctuation，The future and may appear similar fluctuation，Influence of market uncertainty factors increase。

　　市房协专家委员会相关负责人还提醒房地产开发企业和消费者，理性对待市场变化，理性安排房地产开发和销售、理性购房。

The relevant person in charge of the houses for shops expert committee also remind of real estate development enterprises and consumers，Rational treatment market change，The rational arrangement of real estate development and sales、Rational purchase。

　　数据打架

Data fight

　　该听谁的？

Who should listen to the？

　　释疑

disabuse

　　国家统计局和广州市国土房管局的楼市数据“打架”，对于广州楼市而言，已经不是新鲜事。究竟广州房价在6月是涨还是降了？这是不少市民疑惑的问题。

The national bureau of statistics and guangzhou bureau of land room canal in the housing market data“fight”，For guangzhou property market in，Is not new。What guangzhou house price in June is going up or down？This is many people doubt problem。

　　记者采访了解到，尽管两个部门都是采用网签数据进行统计，但统计方法并不一样。

Reporters learned，Although the two departments are the sign and data statistics，But statistics methods are not the same。

　　房管局的住宅网签均价计算方法是统计每个月楼市网签成交数据，按销售金额和销售面积相除以后得出平均交易价格。

The house of room canal bureau and sign the average price calculation method is statistics every month floor enterprise sign clinch a deal the data，According to the sales amount and sales area reached after deduct the average market price。

　　统计局虽然采用了网签数据源，但是使用按项目不同面积分类的平均价格法，采用国际通行的链式拉氏公式计算，以2010年为基期的定基价格指数。其计算步骤与方法：第一，计算某一新建住宅项目90平方米及以下、90—144平方米、144平方米以上3个基本分类的环比指数；第二，采用双加权计算全市3个基本分类的环比指数，即分别利用本月销售面积和金额作为权数计算价格指数，然后将两个价格指数再简单平均计算。

Bureau of statistics although using the net to sign data source，But using item different area classification of average price，Use the prevailing international chain Laplace formula calculation，In 2010, the base for the fixed base price index。The calculation steps and methods：The first，Calculation a new residential projects 90 square meters and below、90-144 square meters、More than 144 square meters of three basic classification link index；The second，Adopts double weighted calculation the three basic classification link index，That is using this month respectively sales area and the amount as weight calculation price index，Then two price index and simple average calculation。

　　专家表示，房管局的网签数据只是平均均价，容易受成交量结构性变化影响，而统计局数据显然是针对不同面积不同价位的住宅网签数据进行加权处理，受成交量结构性变化影响会小一些。

Experts say，The net of room canal bureau signed an average data is only average，Vulnerable to volume structural change effect，And the bureau of statistics data is obviously different according to different area of the house price and sign data weighted processing，Volume by structural change effect will be smaller。

　　“地方和中央的数据"打架"，是历来已久的，但是两个数据均在5%以内，属于正常范围的浮动。”广东中原地产项目部总经理黄韬表示，楼市成交均价在5%以内的浮动是房地产市场稳定的指标之一，只要不超出5%的变动范围，就说明市场未有异常。他认为，目前，广州楼市正经历筑底的阶段，成交均价下降0.5%的数据可能更符合广州楼市现状。

“Local and central data"fight"，Is has been already a long time of，But the two data are within 5%，Belong to the normal range of floating。”Guangdong zhongyuan real estate project department general manager HuangTao said，The property market the price within 5% floating is one of the real estate market stable index，As long as no more than 5% of the range，It is illustrated that the market no exception。He thinks，At present，Guangzhou property market is built through the bottom of the stage，The price drop 0.5% of the data may be more conform to the guangzhou property market situation。

　　有业内人士表示，房管部门当月的数据更直观一些，而统计部门计算出来的指数则更有助于判断长期趋势。对于房屋的消费者，要判断房价走势，两个部门的数据最好都看看，而且最好还要多观察几个月。

The personage inside course of study says，&housing administration department for the current month's data more intuitive，And statistics department calculated index is also helpful to the long-term trend of the judgment。For housing consumers，Judge house price movements，Two department data had better see，And the best observation more than a few months。

　　链接：

link：

　　广州一手房网签均价

Guangzhou skill FangWang sign average price

　　2012年6月 13726元/平方米

June 2012 13726 yuan/square meters

　　2012年5月 13792元/平方米

In May 2012, 13792 yuan/square meters

　　2012年4月 13824元/平方米

April 2012 13824 yuan/square meters

　　2012年3月 12465元/平方米

In march of 2012 12465 yuan/square meters

　　2012年2月 14159元/平方米

February 2012 14159 yuan/square meters

　　2012年1月 14040元/平方米

In January 2012, 14040 yuan/square meters