“房地产行业的不景气指数，已经超过了2008年金融危机时的指数，房地产经过一轮调整，又回到了金融风暴后的起点。”聂梅生说。

“The real estate industry downturn index，Have more than 2008 financial crisis index，Real estate through the round of adjustment，Returned to the starting point of the financial turmoil。”NieMeiSheng said。

　　本月9日，国家统计局发布的7月国房景气指数为94.57，比上月回落0.14点，连续14个月下滑,7月的国房景气指数创下1998年3月以来近14年的历史新低。

This month 9，The national bureau of statistics released on July GuoFang boom index was 94.57，Last month dropped 0.14 point，Continuous decline 14 months,July in GuoFang boom index since March 1998 nearly 14 years of historical low。

　　面对此形势，有房地产企业已遣散员工退出房地产开发，媒体称之为“自杀”。面对这一严峻形势，聂梅生认为，房企“自杀”不如转型，房企要完成“从投资拉动发展到承载社会的经济发展”的转变，这样才能获得重新发展的机会。

In the face of this situation，A real estate enterprise has sent staff out of real estate development，Media called“suicide”。In the face of this severe situation，NieMeiSheng think，Room to“suicide”As transformation，Room enterprises to complete“From the investment pull to bearing the social economic development”change，In order to get to the opportunity of the development。

　　这一转变的背后，是一系列深刻的市场环境变化。

This change back，A series of profound changes in the market environment。

　　与往年相比，房地产投资在固定资产总投资中所占比例也在下降。数据显示，自1998年住房市场化改革以来，房地产投资占整个固定资产投资比重绝大部分时间在20%以上。然而根据最新的统计局数据，房地产投资增速已经连续10个月低于固定资产投资增速，对固定资产投资形成负拉动。

Compared with previous years，Real estate investment in fixed assets proportion of the total investment is also on the decline。Data display，Since 1998, the housing market since the reform，Real estate investment accounts for of the whole fixed assets investment proportion of most of the time in more than 20%。However, according to the latest statistics bureau data，Real estate investment growth has continuous 10 months less than fixed asset investment growth，Investment in fixed assets formation negative pull。

　　从经济引擎到拖后腿，房地产业毫无疑问已进入到不景气周期。

From the economic engine to dragging，There is no doubt that the real estate industry has come to recession period。

　　“在这一些形势下，房企的转型就是必然的了。以往的市场结构、利益格局和盈利模式都发生了变化，都已经不是过去十年所面临的形势了。”聂梅生解释说，在十二五期间，对城镇化所需要的土地改革、户籍改革已经启动，在金融体制改革方面，已经允许民间资本的进入，产业结构改革所需的财税制度改革也已经迈出步伐。这一系列改革，将为房地产企业开拓新的市场机遇，而房地产企业迎来转型的机遇。

“In this some situation，Room the transformation of enterprises is the inevitable。Previous market structure、Interests and profit mode have changed，In the past ten years has not faced the situation。”NieMeiSheng explained，In 1025 period，The urbanization need to land reform、Reform of the household registration has begun，In the financial system reform，Has allowed private capital into，The industrial structure for the reform of the fiscal and taxation system reform has also taken steps。This a series of reform，For real estate enterprises to exploit new market opportunities，And the real estate enterprise have the opportunity of transformation。

　　机遇分四个方面。

Opportunities in four aspects。

　　首先，城市化强有力地驱动；跟据中国社会科学院发布的2012社会蓝皮书《2012年中国社会形势分析与预测》中的数据，2011年，中国历史性地实现了城市人口超过乡村人口，城市化水平超过50%。城市化，毫无疑问会成为中国房地产最有力的驱动力。

First of all，Urbanization strongly drive；According to the Chinese academy of social sciences released 2012 social blue book《In 2012, the Chinese social situation analysis and prediction》The data in the，In 2011,，China's historic way to realize the city has a population of more than rural population，The urbanization level of more than 50%。urbanization，There is no doubt will become China's real estate the most powerful driving force。

　　其次，产业结构调整、新兴产业的兴起将会与房地产业共生；以美国硅谷为例，在硅谷形成后，伴随着新兴产业，房地产业大踏步发展，而且形成了新城镇信息带。

secondly，Industrial structure adjustment、The rise of emerging industry will be and the real estate industry symbiosis；Silicon valley in the United States as an example，After the formation of the in silicon valley，With the emerging industry，The real estate industry development in big strides，And formed a new town with information。

　　第三，内需消费对房地产业的影响；将来，内需消费将会扩大，养老、餐饮甚至文化产业等内需型房地产将会有大发展。事实上，有很多房地产商早已转型了。

The third，Domestic consumption to the influence of the real estate industry；future，Consumption of domestic demand will be enlarged，endowment、Food and even cultural industry and so on domestic demand type real estate will have big development。In fact，There are a lot of real estate business has the transformation。

　　最后，中国正在建立的多元化的金融体系。多元化的金融体系，摆脱原来房地产投资基本靠银行的局面，比如现在很多房地产的基金很活跃，并得到了央行、银监会的支持。

finally，China is to establish diversified financial system。Diversified financial system，Get rid of the original basic depend to real estate investment bank situation，Such as now many real estate fund is very active，And the central bank、The support of the banking regulatory commission (CBRC)。