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人民币单边升值的故事已经结束--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-24

  屈宏斌(汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家):人民币单边升值的故事已经结束。稳增长是明年政策主基调,而升值与此不一致。更重要的是,贸易顺差和GDP的比例已经从过去8%大幅回落至2%以下,我国贸易已经进入基本均衡的区间,无需通过升值做调整。但也不会明显贬值,因为我们毕竟还是贸易顺差。尽管热钱在流出,但资本净流入仍会是大趋势。

QuHongBin(HSBC chief economist in the greater China region):The yuan revaluation of the story is over unilateral。Steady growth next year is policy advocate fundamental key,And appreciation and this agreement。More important is,The trade surplus and the proportion of GDP has dropped sharply in the past from 8% to less than 2%,Our country has entered into the basic balance of trade interval,Not through revaluation change。But it is also not clear devaluation,Because after all, we still trade surplus。Despite the hot money in outflow,But inflows would still be the big trend。

  彭文生(中金公司首席经济学家):在本轮通胀下行过程中出现CPI通缩的可能性不大。虽然7月CPI同比涨幅在翘尾因素影响下,将进一步下降至1.6%左右,但是季调后CPI季度环比增速已于去年四季度见底回升。未来总体物价水平继续大幅下跌的可能性不大,在7月份以后,翘尾因素对CPI向下的影响逐渐降低,CPI同比增速将逐步见底回升。

PengWenSheng(Cicc chief economist):In the current round of inflation down appeared in the process of CPI deflation is unlikely。Although the CPI increase year-on-year in July QiaoWei under the influence of the factors,To fall further to around 1.6%,But the season after November CPI growth in the last quarter has four quarter see bottom to bounce back。The future overall price level are likely to continue to fall in,In July after,QiaoWei factors on the CPI downward effect gradually reduced,CPI growth will gradually year-on-year rise see bottom。

  孙科科(国诚投资分析师):不破不立,是对市场所谓空方动能彻底释放的一种较为痛快的描述。就当前市场而言,结构性的表现很明显,谁去破谁去立,有点混乱,且能够破的力量已经消耗得很充分了,比如银行股的下挫,机械股、建材股、有色金属、钢铁股、交通运输等都有了较为明显的下跌,再破还有几分劲头?且国家已经有了政策放松的动作,更多的是等待一个经济回暖的信号。

Sun coco(Countries sincere investment analysts):Nothing down, nothing up,On the market is the so-called empty party kinetic energy release of a more complete description of the time。In the current market,Structural performance obviously,Who to who go to the set,Up a little bit,And to the power of the broken have expended very full,Such as bank shares fall,Machinery stocks、Building materials stocks、Non-ferrous metal、Steel shares、Transportation to wait to have a more significant decline,Again break with a beautiful harder?And countries already have policy relaxed action,More is waiting for an economy picking up signal。

  李伟(智多盈期指投资总监):资金有不断抄底的迹象,但股指在低点之后还有新低,对市场信心还是形成较大的打击。尤其是最近两周大盘连续演绎“黑色星期一”之后,沪指多次反击2200点关口都无功而返,后市需要重新蓄势整理。对这一点位攻击的次数越多,向上突破的可靠性越大。

Li wei(Continued full period refers to the investment director):Money has been signs of the copy,But in low stock index and new lows after,To market confidence or form a larger blow。Especially in last two ZhouDaPan continuous deduce“Black Monday”after,HuZhi back many times 2200 crossing points to naught,Is the need to gaining finishing。To this point against the more times,Up the reliability of the breakthrough is larger。

  王虹(博众证券投资咨询公司):农产品价格出现惊人上涨,也带动了农药化肥等相关产品的价格大涨,但其影响还没有完全传导至国内股市。市场上农林牧渔、农药化肥近期有相对强势表现,但远没有反映实际情况,因此预期农林牧渔板块、农药化肥板块后市将可能爆发式上涨。

WangHong(Bo all the securities investment consulting company):Agricultural prices appear astonishing rise,Also contributed to the pesticide and fertilizer and other related product prices soar,But the effect is still not fully transmission to the domestic stock market。The market coo-agriculture forestry、Pesticide and fertilizer have relatively recent strong performance,But far from reflect the real situation,Therefore expected coo-agriculture forestry sector、Pesticide and fertilizer plate is BaoFaShi will be rising。

  涂成强(网友):人民币对美元汇率近日连续走低,人民币贬值对出口导向型公司业绩的影响更直接,包括纺织服装都有望直接受益。1、汽车业:出口或迎来反弹;2、家电业:有助缓解出口压力;3、化工业:喜忧参半;4、航运业:面临一定利好;5、钢铁业:总体利大于弊;6、纺织服装业:久旱逢甘霖。

Besmear becomes strong(the):The yuan to the dollar exchange rate recent consecutive decline,The depreciation of RMB to export generated the influence of the performance of the company is more direct,Including textile clothing are all expected to benefit directly。1、Auto industry:Export or have rebounded;2、Home appliances:Help to ease export pressure;3、Chemical industry:mixed;4、Shipping industry:Faced with a certain good;5、steel:Overall outweigh the costs;6、Textile garment industry:The long drought river-beds。

  老羊(网友):沪指继5月初击穿5周均线后,连续第十周运行在5周均线下方,上方的均线系统继续向下发散对指数形成压制,市场弱势形态恐难以扭转。大势观点:低位反复震荡,弱势难以扭转。不排除盘中因技术超卖引发反弹,但在无重大刺激性政策出台的情况下,只可当反抽对待。耐心等待仍为上策。

Old sheep(the):HuZhi after early May 5 weeks after all line breakdown,For the first ten ZhouYunHang in 5 weeks are offline party,The above all line system continues to spread down to the index formation pressure,Market weakness could form to reverse。Half view:Low repeated concussions,Vulnerable to wrestle。Don't rule out because of the technology by the plate sell rebound,But in no major irritant policies,Can only be used when the smoke to treat。The patience to wait for still is the best policy。

  以上内容摘自财苑社区(cy.stcn.com)

From the above content wealth estates community(Cy. STCN. Com)



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