[第一回应] 灰霾与肺癌真有“7年之约”？ [first response] gray haze and lung cancer really have"7 years about"?

　　“雾霾严重的年份后，相隔7年可能会出现肺癌高发期。”一位网友近日在博客中发表的“灰霾与肺癌有7年之约”的内容在网上引起高度关注；出于对持续雾霾天气的担忧，“PM2.5污染造成早死8000人”的说法一时间也成为许多媒体重要版面和时段的头条新闻；还有的网友联想到不久前发布的《2012中国肿瘤登记年报》中“肺癌发病率居全国肿瘤发病和死亡第一位”，对空气污染与人体健康的关系更加忧心。

"Fog haze serious after the year of,Separated by seven years may appear period lung cancer."A net friend recently published in the blog"Grey haze and lung cancer have seven years of the covenant"Content on the Internet cause high attention;For continuous fog haze weather concerns,"PM2.5 pollution early death 8000 people"That time has become many media important page and time of the headlines;The net friend and associate to released recently[2012 Chinese cancer registration annual report]in"Lung cancer incidence in the national cancer incidence and death first",Air pollution and human health relationship more worried.

　　16日，中央气象台预报，冷空气将影响我国中东部，雾霾会逐渐减弱。蓝天虽已隐约现身，但持续多日的“霾伏”给人们造成的心理阴影仍未散去。

16,The central meteorological station,Cold air will influence our country middle,Fog haze will gradually weaken.The blue sky is already had appeared,But for days"Haze v"Give people cause psychological shadow is still not dispersed.

　　灰霾与肺癌真有传说中的“7年之约”？这类说法的科学依据是什么？新华网《第一回应》栏目记者就此向相关部门和权威专家一一求证。

Grey haze and lung cancer is legendary"7 years about"?This kind of statement scientific basis is???????xinhuanet[The first response]The reporter column to relevant departments and authoritative experts confirmed one.

　　灰霾与肺癌真有“7年之约”？ Grey haze and lung cancer really have"7 years about"?

　　北京市肿瘤医院胸外科主任陈克能：损害多大要看吸入灰霾的量与时长，截至目前流行病学调查没有深入的直接研究

Beijing cancer hospital, director of the thoracic surgery ChenKe can:Damage much larger see suction gray haze of quantity and duration,So far no further epidemiological investigation of direct research

　　雾霾与肺癌到底有无“7年之约”？这一说法从何而来？

Fog haze and lung cancer have what"7 years about"?This is the one that come from?

　　记者查阅资料发现，“灰霾与雾霭7年之约”的说法最早出现在一家媒体对广州市肺癌患者发病率上升的报道中，报道援引一位气象专家对广州市肺癌发病率上升的研究内容：“灰霾天气的增加，经过七八年以后，肺癌死亡率随之提高，这二者之间的时间滞后关系比较吻合。”

Reporters found that data access,"Grey haze and mist about 7 years"That first appeared in a media to guangzhou lung cancer incidence rates in the report,Report quoted a weather expert to guangzhou lung cancer incidence rates of the research content:"Gray haze weather increase,After the 78 years later,Then improve lung cancer mortality,The relationship between time lag is consistent."

　　记者发现，在这篇报道中，这位专家还有一句补充说明被网友所遗漏：“但肺癌的致病机理与其确切的死亡率提高的真正原因，我们仍然希望由呼吸病与流行病学专家来共同完成研究。”

Reporter discovery,In this report,The experts have a footnote is net omission:"But lung cancer pathogenesis and its exact mortality the real cause of the increase,We still hope the respiratory disease and epidemiological specialists together to complete research."

　　北京市肿瘤医院胸外科主任陈克能数十年来致力于肺癌研究和防治。对这一说法，他的看法是：“灰霾与肺癌‘7年之约’的说法有些夸张、不准确，截至目前流行病学调查对此没有大量深入的直接研究。”

Beijing cancer hospital, director of the thoracic surgery can ChenKe for decades to the prevention and treatment of lung cancer.The statement,His opinion is:"Grey haze and lung cancer‘7 years about’That some exaggeration/inaccurate,Up to now epidemiological survey have a lot of in-depth study directly."

　　灰霾与肺癌有多少关系？陈克能告诉新华网记者：“灰霾中含有有毒的化学物质，如果长期生活在这种环境中，对呼吸道的损害比较大，但损害究竟有多大还要看吸入灰霾的量与时长。”

Grey haze and lung cancer how many relations?ChenKe can tell xinhua reporter:"Gray haze contains poisonous chemicals,If live for a long time in this kind of environment,On respiratory damage is bigger,But exactly how much damage to see suction gray haze of quantity and duration."

　　“研究也表明，有毒物质都可以致癌，可以说空气污染与肺癌是有关的。”陈克能说。

"Research also suggests that,Toxic substances can cause cancer,Can say air pollution and lung cancer is related."ChenKe can say.

　　“早死8000人”是真是假？ "As early as 8000 people dead"Is true or false?

　　北京大学医学部公共卫生学院教授潘小川：不同城市的PM2.5颗粒不同，对人体健康的影响也不同

Beijing medical university school of public health PanXiaoChuan professor:Different city PM2.5 particles of different,Effects on human health is also different

　　近日网传“PM2.5污染造成早死8000人”的说法，引起许多网友担心。这一说法是真是假？是否有某些特定限制条件？

Recently the network"PM2.5 pollution early death 8000 people"that,Cause many netizens worry.This statement is true or false?If there is a certain restrictions?

　　记者寻访发现，“早死8000人”说法出自于北京大学公共卫生学院的一份报告。记者采访了报告主要负责人，北京大学医学部公共卫生学院教授潘小川。

Reporters found for,"As early as 8000 people dead"View from the Beijing university school of public health in a report.The reporter interviewed the principal person in charge of the report,Beijing medical university school of public health PanXiaoChuan professor.

　　潘小川介绍，2012年12月18日发布的《危险的呼吸—PM2.5的健康危害和经济损失评估研究》报告指出，2012年北京、上海、广州、西安四城市因PM2.5污染造成的早死人数将高达8572人，因早死而致的经济损失达68亿人民币。

PanXiaoChuan introduced,In December 2012 and issued by[Dangerous breath - PM2.5 health hazard and economic loss evaluation research]The report says,In 2012, Beijing/Shanghai/guangzhou/Xi 'an four cities with PM2.5 pollution early death toll will be up to 8572 people,For early death and the economic loss of 6.8 billion yuan.

　　“这一数据是根据国际上公认样本统计方法，在中国华中、华南、华北、华东分别选择几个城市的污染物进行的研究，主要是将其中PM2.5数据和相关同期疾病两个数据放在一起做统计分析，进行统计学上的定量分析和理论预测。”

"This data is based on international recognized sample statistical method,In China, central China/South China/North China/East China respectively choose several cities study of pollutants,Mainly of PM2.5 data and related diseases from two data together do statistical analysis,For statistical quantitative analysis and theoretical prediction."

　　潘小川说：“国内在这方面研究预测做的不多，我们在2011年花了一年时间，搜集从2004年以来的相关数据，做出统计模型，然后主要运用2010年PM2.5数据，放在模型中进行推算，算出相应的超额死亡人数。”

PanXiaoChuan said:"The domestic research in this field prediction do much,In 2011, we spent a year,Collect the relevant data since 2004,Make statistical model,Then the main use 2010 PM2.5 data,In the model of prediction,Work out the corresponding excess deaths."

　　很多网友对如此精确的数字感到疑惑和忧虑，数字背后说明空气污染对人的伤害究竟有多大？

Many netizens to such precise digital confused and worried,Digital behind that air pollution to the person's harm how much?

　　潘小川解释，我们的定量分析说明，PM2.5的危害还是很大的。至于对人体会产生什么影响，主要看PM2.5吸附大气中哪一种有毒颗粒物。如果吸附的是致癌物，就具有致癌性。如果吸附的是重金属，可能造成重金属中毒。成分不同，危害性不同。每个城市的生活经济发展不同，暴露在外的化学物质反应关系也不同。不同城市危害也不一样。

PanXiaoChuan explain,Our quantitative analysis shows,The harm of PM2.5 is very big still.As for human body what influence,Basically see PM2.5 adsorption atmosphere which a poisonous particles.If adsorption is carcinogenic substance,Have carcinogenicity.If the adsorption of heavy metals is,May cause heavy metal poisoning.Differences in the composition,Harmfulness different.Every city life different economic development,Exposed chemical reaction relationship is different.Different city hazard is different also.

　　肺癌发病率年增2.4%原因何在？ Lung cancer incidence increased by 2.4% in why?

　　北京市肿瘤防治办：在探寻肺癌发病率提高是否有别的诱因

Beijing cancer prevention and control to do:In search of lung cancer improve if there is other incentive

　　北京市肿瘤医院胸外科主任陈克能：不明致病原因的肺癌人数确实在增加

Beijing cancer hospital, director of the thoracic surgery ChenKe can:The number of unknown causes of lung cancer really on the increase

　　根据北京市卫生局2012年11月发布的监测数据显示，北京市肺癌发病率由2001年的40.29/10万上升至2010年的62.68/10万，年平均增长率为2.4%。2010年北京市共报告肺癌新发病例7846例，占所有恶性肿瘤总数的20.8%，男性肺癌发病率占癌症发病率的第一位，女性肺癌发病率占女性癌症发病率第二位。

According to the Beijing municipal health bureau released in November 2012 the monitoring data shows,The incidence of lung cancer from 2001 in 40.29/10 rose to 2010 years of 62.68/10,Average annual growth rate of 2.4%.In 2010, Beijing new cases were reported 7846 cases of lung cancer,Accounted for 20.8% of the total number of all malignant tumor,Male lung cancer incidence of a disease of cancer incidence of a disease first,Female lung cancer incidence of a disease of the second female cancer incidence of a disease.

　　全国肿瘤登记中心近期发布的《2012中国肿瘤登记年报》中也提到，“肺癌发病率居全国肿瘤发病和死亡第一位”。

National cancer registration center released recently[2012 Chinese cancer registration annual report]Also mentioned,"Lung cancer incidence in the national cancer incidence and death first".

　　对于诱发肺癌的主要因素，曾有专家表示与吸烟有关。但细心的网友发现，根据卫生部门统计，中国人吸烟程度近40年来并无明显变化，但肺癌发病率却呈明显上升趋势。很多网友疑问，吸烟程度无明显变化的情况下，为何肺癌发病率却不断增加？

The main factors to induce lung cancer,There have been experts say associated with smoking.But careful you found,According to the department of health statistics,Chinese people almost forty years of smoking and no obvious change,But lung cancer incidence of a disease but show clear ascendant trend.Many netizens question,Smoking has no obvious change of circumstances,Why the lung cancer incidence is increasing?

　　记者就此向北京市肿瘤防治办求证。北京市肿瘤防治办相关负责人说：“大量研究表明，吸烟是肺癌的首要危险因素。从开始吸烟到肺癌发生的潜伏期大约需要15至50年，吸烟者的吸烟数量、烟龄等与肺癌患病风险相关。但我们也在探寻肺癌发病率提高是否有别的诱因。”

The reporter to Beijing cancer prevention and control for verification.Beijing cancer prevention and control to the relevant person in charge said:"A large number of studies show that,Smoking is the primary risk factor for lung cancer.From start smoking to lung cancer happen the incubation period is about 15 to years,The number of smokers to smoke/Pack-years smoked with lung cancer risk related.But we also in search of lung cancer improve if there is other incentive."

　　北京市肿瘤防治办公室曾于2010年专门针对北京市户籍的1346例肺癌患者进行调查。结果显示，有56.8%的受访者有吸烟习惯。其中男性吸烟率为79.4%，女性吸烟率19.4%；开始吸烟的平均年龄25岁，平均每天吸20支，平均持续吸烟时间40年，累积吸烟40包年，都是名副其实的“老烟枪”，在这些吸烟病例中，已戒烟者占26.7%，开始戒烟的平均年龄62岁，平均戒烟时间7.5年。

The Beijing office of cancer prevention and control in 2010 according to the registered permanent residence of Beijing in 1346 cases of patients with lung cancer were investigated.The results show,56.8% of the respondents have smoking habits.The male smoking was 79.4%,Women smoking rate 19.4%;The average age to start smoking 25 years old,On an average day suction and branch,Average persistent smoking time forty years,Cumulative smoking and in bag,Are worthy of the name"Heavy smoker",Smoking in these cases,In smokers who have quit accounted for 26.7%,The average age of smoking at the age of 62,An average of 7.5 years time to give up smoking.

　　北京市肿瘤防治办提供的另一份监测数据显示，2010年北京市城区的肺癌发病率要高于北京市区县的肺癌发病率。

Beijing cancer prevention and control to provide a separate monitoring data shows,In 2010, Beijing city of lung cancer incidence of a disease than Beijing area county of lung cancer incidence of a disease.

　　“根据几项监测数据可以看出，诱发肺癌的主要因素还是吸烟。但报告中也显示，女性的发病率提升较快。男性的肺癌主要发病是淋状癌细胞，而女性肺癌主要发病是线性细胞癌。”这位负责人说，“除吸烟外，二手烟和空气污染是致病主要原因之一。”

"According to several monitoring data can be seen,The main factors of induced lung cancer or smoking.But the report also shows,The incidence of women ascend faster.Male lung cancer main cause is tube shape cancer cells,While women the main pathogenesis of lung cancer is linear cell carcinoma."The person in charge said,"In addition to the smoking,Second-hand smoke and air pollution is one of the main reasons for the disease."

　　陈克能告诉记者，淋状癌细胞主要由吸烟所致。目前肺癌发病率上升主要是线性细胞癌发病率增高。不明致病原因的肺癌人数确实在增加。

ChenKe can tell reporter,Tube shape mainly by cancer cells caused by smoking.Lung cancer incidence rates at present is mainly linear cell carcinoma incidence.The number of unknown causes of lung cancer really on the increase.

　　“我认为肺癌上升第一大原因是吸烟，其中包括二手烟，其次是空气污染与精神压力造成的。”陈克能说，“雾霾对人体有伤害，不只需要进行自我防护，更重要的是每个人都要从自我做起，关爱环境，空气污染也是每个公民的责任。”(新华网记者 李莹 陶叶)

"I think the first reason is lung cancer up smoking,Including secondhand smoke,The second is the air pollution caused by pressure and spirit."ChenKe can say,"Fog haze to human body hurt,Not only the need for self protection,More important is everyone should start from the self,Caring for the environment,Air pollution is the duty of every citizen."(Xinhua reporter LiYing ceramic blade)