(CRIC研究中心评论员/潘绍之)

(CRIC research center commentators/PanShaoZhi)

　　近日有媒体爆出，住建部相关人士表示，下半年房地产调控将倾向于“强调既有政策”，中央对于核心政策限购的执行层面正在收紧，而对于个别地方政府变相放松房地产调控的现象，则将进一步采取一系列问责措施。

Recently had the media reported，Live JianBu officials said，The second half of the real estate regulation will tend to“Emphasize both policy”，The central core 限购 policy for the level of execution of are tightening，And for some local government in disguised form relax regulation of the real estate phenomenon，It will take further a series of accountability measures。

　　事实上，伴随着今年以来两次存款利率的下调，中央政府以及各部委对坚持调控的强调就一直没有消停过。包括住房和城乡建设部、国家发改委、中国人民银行、银监会在内的多个部委前后通过发布声明以及媒体澄清等方式，一再向外界传递出“坚持房地产调控不动摇”的声音。温家宝总理更是在7日常州调研时明确指出：“必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策，决不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑。”

In fact，With two times this year interest rate cut，The central government and ministries to emphasis on regulation has not persist。Including housing and rural construction、The national development and reform commission、The people's bank of China、Banking regulator, a number of ministries by releasing a statement and before and after the media such as clear way，Deliver to the outside again and again“Insist on real estate regulation not be moved”voice。Prime minister wen jiabao is in 7 changzhou research made clear when said：“Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy，Never let the house prices rebound，Cause failed。”

背景：调控预期转向已经发生，中央喊话旨在扭转预期 background：Regulatory expectations to have happened，The central propaganda aims to reverse expectations

　　从6月各大重点城市商品住宅的成交数据来看，市场成交回暖的行情在进一步延续。其中北京单月的成交量已经达到了140.94万方，继5月的高位再度增长19.4%，上海也超过了100万方大关，环比继续增长26.6%，全面回归到调控升级前的水平。而从价格方面看，6月份一些城市的新建住宅价格出现了环比增长，而具体落实到在售项目上，近期上调价格的楼盘确实正在越来越多地出现。

From June the key city of the commodity residential house clinch a deal data to see，Clinch a deal the price in the market warms up in further continue。One of the biggest Beijing volume has reached 1.4094 million party，Following the may high 19.4% growth again，Shanghai is more than 1 million party mark，Annulus comparing continue to grow 26.6%，Overall return to upgrade the level of control before。And from the price，In June, some of the city's new residence price appeared annulus comparing growth，And specific fulfil sold in the project，The recent price rise building was really more and more to appear。

　　而反观宏观经济方面的表现，进出口方面5月同比增速已回到14%以上，虽然较4月2.7%的谷值有了明显的反弹，但是原因主要受季节性因素和异常波动影响，依然不可掉以轻心。而投资方面，1-5月同比增速度仅为20.1%（一般认为中央政府的心理底线是20%），较1-4月份回落0.1个百分点，创下2003年以来的最低值。正是基于对于经济下行的担忧，短短一个月内央行连续两次下调存贷款利率，以进一步提振目前疲软的经济形势。

And in the performance of the macro economic aspects，Year-on-year growth may import has returned to more than 14%，Although a April 2.7% of the value of a significant rebound，But the main reason by seasonal factors and abnormal fluctuations，Still cannot treat STH lightly。And investment，1-may increase year-on-year pace of just 20.1%（Generally think that the central government's psychological bottom line is 20%），A 1-a drop of 0.1% in April，Hit the lowest since 2003。It is based on the economic concerns for downlink，Just one month the central bank cut interest rate for two times，Further boosted by a sluggish economic situation。

　　一方面是楼市轰轰烈烈的回暖趋势在进一步蔓延，另一方面是存贷利率一月两次的下调，舆论对于放松调控和政策转向的担忧并不是空穴来风。而对于普通购房者而言，这种担忧更多地体现在对未来房价上涨的心理预期，在这种预期下，部分地区的恐慌性购房似乎正在重出江湖。

On the one hand are the property market magnificent and victorious thaw trend in further spread，On the other hand is deposit and loan interest rate cut in January two，Public opinion to relax regulation and policy change and not the concerns of the foundation。And as for the average home buyers，Such fears more embodied in the future to rising house prices expected，In this expected，In some parts of the panic buys a house seems to be fecundity。

解读：强调“既有政策”，调控不会放松也不会收紧 interpretation：emphasize“Both policy”，Regulation would not relax also won't tightened

　　住建部相关人士此次的表态中提到未来半年的调控重点在于坚持“既有政策”，在当下这个时间节点上这样的表态还是相当契合中国经济所面临的现状。

Live JianBu relevant personage of the mentioned in the next six months statement focus is to insist on regulation“Both policy”，In the present this time on such a comment node is quite agree with the present situation of Chinese economy faces。

　　所谓的“既有政策”，一方面意味着起码在近期内，房地产调控将继续严格执行，地方各级政府的各种暗松行为将被限制，违者或将受到住建部问责；另一方面也意味着，尽管目前房地产市场上不安分的因素正在越来越多的出现，但是考虑到宏观经济的不确定因素，目前仍然不适宜对房地产调控进一步施压。

The so-called“Both policy”，On the one hand means that at least in the near future，Real estate regulation will continue to strictly carry out，The local governments at various levels, various dark pine behavior will be limited，Offenders or will be live JianBu accountability；On the other hand also means，Despite the current real estate market uneasy cent of factors are more and more appear，But considering the macroeconomic uncertainty，Still not suitable to increase pressure on the real estate regulation。

　　建议：宏观经济是下半场房地产调控的决定性因素，调控持续背景下企业应慎字当头

suggest：The macro economy is the decisive factor of real estate regulation in the second half，Under the background of regulation continue enterprise should be wary of the character overhead

　　正如我们此前曾多次提到的那样，决定下半场房地产调控的决定性因素是未来宏观经济的走势，放在目前的背景下就是：倘若6月份以后宏观经济的各项指标在可控的范围内小幅回稳，那么中央对于房地产调控的总基调将和目前保持一致，即：重在巩固成果和坚持既有政策；而如果未来宏观经济出现了进一步的下滑，中央对地方政策暗松或将会采取更为宽容的态度，也不排除出台适当调整措施。

As we previously mentioned many times that，In the second half of the regulation to real estate decisive factor is the trend of the macro economic future，In the background is：If after June macroeconomic each index in the controllable scope rose slightly，So the central for real estate regulation and the total fundamental key will be the same，namely：Consolidate results and insist on both policy；And if the future macroeconomic appeared further down，The central government to the local policy dark loose or will take more tolerant attitude，Also don't expel issued appropriate adjustment measures。

　　对于企业来说，必须意识到的一点是：目前的这一波市场回暖行情很大程度上是拜宏观经济不景气所赐，而经济波动受多方影响具有很强的不确定性。结合目前中央政府和各部委对坚持调控的表态来看，此时企业切忌盲目乐观，还是应时刻保持谨慎，毕竟核心政策限购依然没有取消，调控的大背景与过去相比没有任何改变。

For companies to，Must be aware that point is：The current wave of market warms up prices to a great extent on the macro economic recession has given worship，And economic fluctuation has a strong influence by many of the uncertainty。Combining the central government and the ministries to stick to his control，At this time the enterprise avoid by all means is blind optimism，Or should keep a cautious，After all the core 限购 still is not cancel policies，Control the background compared with past without any change。