2012年年初各地楼市库存量创历史新高之后，随着5、6月成交量明显回涨，楼市库存量开始减少，伟业我爱我家(博客,微博)市场研究院数据统计显示，截止2012年6月底，13个典型城市库存总量为76.52万套，与去年年底相比减少3.99万套；其中，11个城市库存量出现下降，其中北京下降比较明显。

Early 2012 housing stock around a record after，With five、June HuiZhang volume obvious，Housing inventories begin to decrease，Cause I love my family(blog,Micro bo)Market research institute data statistics show，By the end of June 2012，13 a typical cities total stock of 765200 units，By the end of last year and less than 39900 sets；Among them，Inventories of 11 cities to fall，One Beijing dropped more apparent。

　　然而，即便经历上半年的楼市去库存后，相比去年同期楼市库存量依然处在高位，伟业我爱我家市场研究院数据统计显示，6月底库存量与去年6月底同期相比增加17.01万。

however，Even if the experience for the first half of the property market to inventory，Compared with the same period last year housing inventories are still in high，Cause I love my home market research institute data statistics show，At the end of June to the end of June last year and inventories increased compared with the same period of 170100。

一线城市及部分二线城市新房库存情况统计 A city and part of the second city bridal chamber inventory statistics

　　库存量是已经开盘入市交易但当前并未售出的待售房屋数量，是反映房地产市场活力与风险的重要指标。伟业我爱我家集团副总裁胡景晖分析认为，库存量处于高位意味楼市风险依然存在，在高库存的市场环境之下，虽然当前楼市成交量明显回涨，但并不意味着楼市已经开始回暖，楼市“去库存”仍是后续政府调控的内容之一。

Stock market trading has been open quotation is not for sale but the current number of homes sold，Reflect the real estate market is an important index of vigor and risk。Cause I love my family group vice President HuJingHui analysis thinks，Stock market means a high risk remains，High stock market in circumstances，Although the current property market turnover HuiZhang obvious，But this does not mean that property market has started to thaw，Property market“To inventory”Is still one of the content of the subsequent government regulation。

　　关于楼市发展趋势，伟业我爱我家集团副总裁胡景晖预计，相比上半年，下半年总体楼市成交量、价依然还会略有回落。其理由是：

About property market development trend，Cause I love my family group vice President is expected to HuJingHui，First half compared，The second half of the overall property market turnover、Price will still slightly down。The reason is：

　　首先，新增供应量下半年持续增加。下半年房企推盘计划要明显多于上半年，尤其是大多上市房企下半年推盘占比都在65%以上，所以未来的楼市新增供应量依然可观。

first，New supply continues to increase in the second half。The second half of enterprises planning to push the dish room significantly more than the first half of the year，Most of the second half of enterprises listed room especially push plate than accounts for over 65%，So future market new supply is considerable。

　　其次，部分需求难于持续、部分需求还将萎缩。支撑年初至今成交量不断回暖的购房需求无外乎三大类：首次置业的刚需；积蓄已久的豪宅需求；5、6月份产生的一小波恐慌性购房需求。下半年随着限购政策的从严执行，首次置业的刚需由于很难快速再生，当前旺盛的刚需释放形势难于持续；而“认房又认贷”的差异化信贷政策无法松绑，豪宅及改善需求入市难度很大；投资、投机需求也还是无法找到机会及获利空间；加上随着市场交易量的稳定，恐慌性需求也会烟消云散。

second，Part of the need to continue、Part of the demand will atrophy。Early support has warmed up during the pent-up demand volume of outside three categories：First-time home buyers to the just；Savings already a long time of a person of extraordinary powers curtilage the demand；5、In June a small wave produced the pent-up demand of panic。The second half of the 限购 policy with strict execution，First-time home buyers to the just because it is so hard to rapid regeneration，The current exuberant just need to release the situation is difficult to continue；and“Recognize room and recognition credit”The difference of the credit policy can't relax，A person of extraordinary powers curtilage and improve market demand is very difficult；investment、Speculative demand also still cannot find opportunities and profit space；With the size of the market and stable，Panic demand will evaporate。

　　因此，下半年，虽然全国各地方政府对楼市政策的微调难以避免，但是楼市宏观调控的大原则不会改变；下半年购房需求总量将逐步萎缩，楼市整体供大于求的买方市场格局不会改变；此外，由于目前楼市库存仍居高不下，而且下半年更多的房企供应计划要明显多于上半年，所以在去库存的的强大压力下，“降价走量”依旧是大多数房企的必由之路。所以，下半年的楼市成交量维持上半年形势实属不易，整体成交均价还将维持稳中有降之格局，当然，局部区域个别楼盘的房价也可能出现较大幅度波动。

so，The second half，Although the national governments about the housing policy to avoid the fine-tuning，But housing of macroeconomic control big principle will not change；The second half of the total pent-up demand will be gradually shrinking，The buyer's market supply market overall pattern will not change；In addition，Because the present market the stock remained high，And the second half of the room more enterprises supply plan to significantly more than the first half of the year，So in the strong pressure to inventory，“Walk quantity price”Is still the only way of most room enterprises。so，In the second half of the property market turnover in the first half of maintaining the situation is not easy，Overall the price will also maintain stability have fall of the pattern，Of course，Local individual building dish house prices may also appeared more significant motion。