【《财经》(博客,微博)记者 由曦】 【《financial》(blog,Micro bo)Reporter by dongxi】

　　7月6日，摩根大通在题为《中国房地产市场再探》的特别报告中预计，房地产价格将会进一步温和下跌，在摩根大通看来，房地产市场的活动可能进一步低迷，然后在一个较低的水平上稳定下来。

On July 6，Jpmorgan chase in the title《China's real estate market out again》In the special report expected，Real estate prices will fall further mild，In jpmorgan chase looks，The real estate market activity may further downturn，And then a relatively low level of stability。

　　摩根大通表示，各种测量指标显示，中国的房价已从最高点下跌了3%-4%，房地产的可支付能力已经得到改善。

Jpmorgan chase said，All kinds of measurement indicators suggest that，China's housing prices have dropped 3% from the highest point-4%，Real estate can pay ability has improved。

　　摩根大通认为，提供经济适用房是维护社会稳定的一项重要政策，另外也能缓和私人房地产投资剧烈下降的影响。但是，该机构认为经济适用房投资的规模已被高估。根据其计算，2011年的经济适用房投资约为8,000亿元，2012年很可能增长30%-40%。

Jpmorgan chase think，Provide economy applicable room is maintaining social stability of an important policy，Also can ease private real estate investment the influence of the steep descent。but，The agency said the economy is applicable the room the size of the investment has already been overvalued。According to the calculation，2011 years of economy applicable room investment is about 8,$00 billion，2012 is likely to grow 30% 40%。

　　摩根大通指出，房地产市场低迷的表现已成为近期经济增长的一个主要拖累因素，并估计房地产市场的调整将会使2012年的GDP增长率降低0.6%，而如果纳入间接影响，拖累幅度将达1%。

Jpmorgan chase points out that，The real estate market performance of the recent downturn has become one of the major economic growth factors drag，And an estimate of the real estate market changes will make 2012 GDP growth rate reduced by 0.6%，And if into indirect effects，Drag the rate will reach 1%。

　　摩根大通表示，尽管近期的宏观政策已明显向转向宽松，但是房地产市场将会在今年剩余时间内继续紧缩。

Jpmorgan chase said，Although recent macro policies have significantly to turn to loose，But the real estate market will be in the rest of this year time to squeeze。

　　“放松投资需求限制并不是一个方案，但是中央政府将会适时微调政策，力求为房地产市场内的刚需提供支持。与此同时，由于利益冲突，地方政府可能会试图规避中央政府执行的紧缩政策。”

“Relax investment demand limit is not a solution，But the central government will timely fine-tuning policy，For the real estate market to provide support to the just within。At the same time，Conflict of interest because，Local government may attempt to circumvent the central government tightening policy execution。”

　　2011年11月4日，摩根大通曾发布了一份题为《中国房地产市场：可控整体价格调整下的广泛区域差异》特别报告，在该报告中指出，中国的房地产市场已经到了一个转折点，未来12-18个月内全国房价可能下跌5%-10%。

On November 4, 2011，Jpmorgan chase had released a title《China's real estate market：Controlled under the price adjustment whole wide regional differences》Special report，In this report，China's real estate market has reached a turning point，In the next 12 to 18 months of house prices fell 5%-the national may be 10%。