“包容性增长”需要生产型就业机会平等和一个有效的政府

“Inclusive growth”Need to productive employment equality of opportunity and an effective government

　　■ 周建军

S ZhouJianJun

　　包容性增长，这一中文语境中并不常见的词汇，在第五届亚太经合组织人力资源开发部长级会议上，引来国内外各界人士的诸多关注和热议。所谓“包容性增长”，就是让经济全球化和经济发展成果惠及所有国家和地区、惠及所有人群，在可持续发展中实现经济社会协调发展。

Inclusive growth，The Chinese context is not common vocabulary，In the fifth apec ministerial meeting on human resources development，Draws the attention of all circles from home and abroad and many hot debate。The so-called“Inclusive growth”，Is to make the economic globalization and economic development benefits all countries and regions、Benefit all the crowd，In sustainable development realize the coordinate development of the economic society。

　　“包容性增长”（Inclusive Growth）概念的产生是发展经济学领域的新进展，与联合国秘书长潘基文等政治领导人的关注密不可分。包括联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行等全球性或区域性组织的领导人，在多个场合倡导社会包容或包容性增长。这种宣传攻势很容易让人联想起20多年前指引拉美和前苏联等国进行私有化改革的“华盛顿共识”。从某种意义上来说，“包容性增长”正是西方机构对“华盛顿共识”的自我修正。

“Inclusive growth”（Inclusive Growth）The concept is an economics field development new progress，And the United Nations secretary-general ban ki-moon and the attention of political leaders are inseparable。Including the United Nations、The world bank、The international monetary fund、The Asian development bank and other global or regional leaders of the organization，On many occasions advocate the containment or inclusive growth。This campaign is easy to associate with more than 20 years ago in Latin America and the former Soviet union to guide and other foreign countries for privatization of the reform“The Washington consensus”。In a certain sense，“Inclusive growth”What western institutions to“The Washington consensus”corrections。

　　全球面临包容性挑战 The global challenge facing inclusiveness

　　虽然全世界都在倡导包容性的可持续经济增长，但事实远非如此。正如有人戏言，不平等的历史跟人类社会的历史一样悠久。现实中，有些经济体几乎没有经济增长，或者经济增长常常不可持续，更难谈得上经济增长的包容性。诺贝尔经济学奖得主斯宾塞领衔的世界银行《可持续增长和包容性发展》报告称，自从20世纪50年代至今，全球只有13个经济体的年均经济增长率达到了7%以上，并持续25年以上。这13个经济体是博茨瓦纳、巴西、中国、中国香港、中国台湾、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马来西亚、马耳他、阿曼、新加坡和泰国。其中，仅日本、韩国、新加坡、马耳他、中国香港和中国台湾，经济持续增长且实现了人均收入的高收入水平。除去日本，只有韩国和中国台湾这两个人口超千万的经济体，跨越所谓“中等收入陷阱”进入高收入水平经济体行列。

Although the world is in advocate inclusive sustainable economic growth，But nothing is further from the truth。As some seriously，Not equal to the history of the human society is as old as the history。reality，Some economies almost no economic growth，Or economic growth often unsustainable，Harder to talk up the economic growth of inclusiveness。Nobel economic prize winner spencer, led the world bank《Sustainable growth and inclusive development》The report says，Since the 1950 s to the present day，Only 13 of the global economy with an annual economic growth rate achieved 7% above，And lasts 25 years。The 13 economies is Botswana、Brazil、China、Hong Kong, China、China's Taiwan、Indonesia、Japan、South Korea、Malaysia、Malta、Oman、Singapore and Thailand。Among them，Only Japan、South Korea、Singapore、Malta、Hong Kong, China and Taiwan, China，Continued economic growth and realize the per capita income of high income level。Remove the Japanese，Only in South Korea and China Taiwan this's two super thousands of economy，Across the so-called“Middle-income trap”Into the high income level economies ranks。

　　据世界银行的2005年购买力平价统计数据，截至2005年，全球尚有14亿人生活在每天1.25美元的国际贫困线以下。这虽然比1981年的19亿贫困人口的数据有所下降，但基本上是中国贫困人口减少的原因所致。而除中国外的其他地区，形势则不断恶化。2005年，生活在中国以外地区的贫困人口，较之 1981 年时至少增加了1个亿。

According to the world bank 2005 purchasing power parity statistical data，By the end of 2005，There are 1.4 billion people living in the world every day of the international poverty line of $1.25。Though this than the 1981 1.9 billion poor population data fell，But basically is China the poverty reduction caused by the reasons。And in addition to the other parts of China，The situation is deteriorating。2005 years，Life in the outside China of the poor，Compared to the 1981 has increased at least 1。

　　全球最贫困的40%人口，其收入只占到世界收入总量的5%；而最富裕的20%人口则占到了总收入的75%。到1999年，世界上最富有的475位亿万富翁的财富总额已经超过了所有人口中较贫困人口中一半人（约30亿人）的收入总额。2015年将是千年发展目标的截止年限，但是千年发展目标的实现困难重重。就中国自身而言，除了广为人知的贫富差距、地区差距、城乡差距问题，代际传递问题也正在引发人们的担心和忧虑。中国学者蔡洪滨曾经从社会流动性的角度，进一步区分了“静态的不平等”和“动态的不平等”，相对于“静态的不平等”，“动态的不平等”侧重强调社会流动性低、社会利益结构的固化。值得注意的是，有研究指出，2000年之后中国家庭代与代之间收入的相关性在上升，社会流动性在下降（详见2010年Khor和Pencavel 在亚洲开发银行的工作论文）。

40% of the world's poorest people，Its income account for only 5% of the world total income；The richest 20% of the population is accounted for 75% of total revenue。By 1999，The world's richest 475 billionaires have more than the total wealth all of the population in the poorer people in half of the population（About 3 billion people）Gross income of。2015 will be the millennium development goals by fixed number of year，But one thousand years to achieve the goals of difficulties。Will China itself，In addition to the well known to the gap between rich and poor、The regional gap、Gap between urban and rural problems，Intergenerational transmission is also the problem by people concerned and worried。Chinese scholars from CaiHongBin once the point of view of social mobility，Further distinguish between the“Static inequality”and“Dynamic inequality”，Relative to“Static inequality”，“Dynamic inequality”Focusing on emphasis on social mobility is low、Social benefit structure of curing。Note the，Studies have pointed out that，2000 years after China's family and the correlation between income and generation is on the rise，Social mobility in the fall（As shown in the 2010 Pencavel Khor and in the Asian development bank, working paper）。

　　即使那些实现了持续经济增长或跨越所谓“中等收入陷阱”进入高收入水平的经济体，也同样面临着包容性的挑战。例如在美国，无论是收入还是财富方面的不平等都很惊人：前1%的富人拥有的资产额超过总资产的40%，后80%的人口只拥有美国17%的财富，这是20世纪20年代以来最不平等的财富分配。2003~2005年，美国前1%人的收入的增加额超过了20%最穷的人的收入总额。美国的一份最新研究报告称，2010年美国收入最高的100名首席执行官中，25人的年薪高于他们所在企业缴纳的联邦所得税。美国人口普查局的调查结果称，美国2010年贫困人口达到历史性的4620万人，与2009年相比新增贫困人口260万人，达到52年来的最高值；贫困人口比例攀升至15.1%，相当于6.6个人中就有1名穷人，为1993年以来的最高水平（所谓贫困人口，系指四口之家税前年现金收入低于22314美元或两口之家低于14218美元）。在日本这样的发达国家，每年因经济困难自杀的人已经连续12年达到3万人，越来越多的日本人找不到稳定的工作，承受着收入下降的事实。在韩国，连续几十年的快速经济增长也没有带来社会融合，政府和私人财阀企业正在就是否施行“共享型经济增长”而激烈争论着。很明显，经济学中所指的“涓滴效应”（即经济增长的红利将通过市场机制自动渗漏给各个阶层），在现实中是不充分的。

Even those who realize the sustainable economic growth or across the so-called“Middle-income trap”Into the high income level economy，Also also faces the challenge of tolerance。For example in the United States，Whether income or wealth inequality are amazing：The top 1% of the rich have assets more than 40% of total assets，After 80% of the population has only 17% of America's wealth，This is since the 1920 s the most unequal distribution of wealth。2003 ~ 2005，The United States 1% of income before revaluation of more than 20% of the poorest people in total income。The United States a new study says，In 2010 the United States the highest income of 100 chief executives，25 annual salary of more than they pay in the enterprise of the federal income tax。The census bureau says the results of the survey，The United States in 2010 to the historic poverty population of 46.2 million people，Compared with 2009 new poverty population of 2.6 million，Reach 52 years of high；Poverty population proportion of up to 15.1%，The equivalent of 6.6 people to have a poor，For the highest level since 1993（The so-called poverty population，Refers to the family of four cash income tax the year before last less than $22314 or two home under 14218 dollars）。In Japan this developed countries，Every year because of the economic difficulties people have committed suicide for 12 years to reach 30000 people，In Japan, more and more people can not find a steady job，Under the income of the decline of the facts。In South Korea，Continuous decades of rapid economic growth has also brought not social integration，The government and the private enterprise is the plutocrats whether enforcement“Sharing type economic growth”And the debate。obviously，In the context of economics“Trickle-down effect”（Economic growth is the dividend will be through the market mechanism to each class automatic leakage），In the reality is not sufficient。

　　美国耶鲁大学政治学教授莱恩的实证研究指出，经济增长、收入水平和人们的幸福之间并不存在简单的正相关关系。在关于市场民主制度下幸福问题的研究中，莱恩强调了经济增长和由经济增长带来的收入提高的区别，并指出了经济增长过程的可能“不幸福”，以及经济增长之后收入水平与“幸福”的复杂关系。他的研究显示：除了经济增长过程的可能“不幸福”，收入水平和“幸福”是曲线关系而非直线关系。收入水平和“幸福”的曲线关系并不否认收入水平对“幸福”的重要性，尤其对穷人而言，收入水平有“极其正面的作用”。但他同时也指出，在他所认知的市场民主制度下，一旦一个人取得了最低程度的收入水平，其收入水平对提高“幸福”就变得非常有限。特别是在发达国家，收入和幸福的关系接近于零或有时为负（越富有，越不幸福）。他声称，资本主义虽然取得了创造物质繁荣的高度成就，但是却未能成功构建一个和谐的社会及确保家庭的完整。

Yale university political science professor lane's empirical research said，Economic growth、Income level and the happiness of the people there is no simple are related。On the market in a democratic system, the study of happiness，Ryan stressed the economic growth and the economic growth of the difference between income increase brought，And points out the possible economic growth process“Not happy”，And after economic growth and income level“happiness”The complex relationship。His research showed：In addition to economic growth process of may“Not happy”，Income level and“happiness”Is curve relationship than linear relationship。Income level and“happiness”The curvilinear relationship is not denying that income level to“happiness”The importance of，Especially for the poor is concerned，Income level have“Extremely positive role”。But he also noted，In his cognitive market a democratic system，Once a man made the minimum level of income level，The income level to improve“happiness”She became very limited。Especially in the developed countries，The relationship between income and happiness close to zero or sometimes is negative（The wealthier，Is not happy）。He claimed that he，Capitalism has made to create the material prosperity of high achievement，But failed to build a harmonious society and to ensure the integrity of the family。

　　教条化的“平等”缺乏可操作性 Of dogma should“equality”Lack of maneuverability

　　显而易见，要实现真正的包容性增长，社会平等是关键性前提。这其中不但包含通过再分配实现的结果平等，更重要的是机会平等。美国政治哲学家罗尔斯认为：“所有社会价值（包括自由和平等、收入和财富以及个人和尊严的各项基础）都应该平均分配，除非这些价值中的一项或全部的不平均分配能使所有人受益。”

obvious，To realize the truly inclusive growth，Social equality is key premise。Which not only contain through the redistribution of the realization of the equal results，More important is the equality of opportunity。American political philosopher rawls think：“All social value（Including freedom and equality、Income and wealth and the personal and dignity of the basic）Should be equally，Unless the value of a or all of the not equal distribution can make benefits all people。”

　　然而，结果平等和机会平等往往难以区分。英国著名政治哲学家科恩指出，促进机会平等不仅是一种平等化的政策，而且是一种再分配的政策。中国学者王绍光总结称，罗尔斯和科恩等学者的实质机会平等理论都有一个大前提，即在某些关键领域（当然不是所有领域），结果必须平等，只有这些领域的结果平等了，人们在机会上才是真正平等的。

however，The results of equality and the equality of opportunity is often hard to distinguish。The famous British political philosopher Cohen points out，To promote equality of opportunity is not only a kind of equality of the policy，And it is a redistribution of the policy。Chinese scholars WangShaoGuang summary said，Rawls and Cohen, the essence of the scholars equality of opportunity theory has a major premise，That is in some key areas（Of course not all fields），The results must be equal，Only these findings in the field of equality，People in the opportunity is truly equal。

　　就机会平等本身而言，无论是理论家还是社会大众都有着不太相同的理解和认识。关于这一点，科恩对机会平等从三个层次做了进一步区分：资产阶级的机会平等、左翼自由主义的机会平等和社会主义的机会平等。根据科恩的观点，资产阶级的机会平等旨在通过消除因权利分配和因抱有偏见及其他有害的社会观念所引起的对机会的限制，扩大对人们的机会。左翼自由主义的机会平等超出了资产阶级的机会平等，旨在通过破除资产阶级的机会平等尚未涉及的由社会环境造成的限制性结果。一旦左翼自由主义的机会平等得以充分实现，人们的命运和天赋才能由他们的选择所决定，因而，也就不再由他们的社会背景所决定。

Will the equality of opportunity in itself，Whether theorists or society in general has not the same understanding and the understanding。On this point，Cohen to the equality of opportunity from three administrative levels further distinguish：Asset class the equality of opportunity、Left-wing liberalism of equality of opportunity and socialist equality of opportunity。According to Cohen's point of view，Asset class the equality of opportunity aims to eliminate since right distribution and for eigners and other harmful social ideas to be caused the limits of the opportunity，Expand to people the opportunity。Left-wing liberalism of the equality of opportunity is beyond the bourgeoisie of the equality of opportunity，Aims to break of the bourgeoisie, the equality of opportunity not covered by the social environment by restrictive results。Once the left-wing liberalism to fully realize the equality of opportunity，The destiny of people and talent to the choice by their decision，so，It is not by their social background had decided。

　　跟左翼自由主义的机会平等相比，社会主义的平等则更深入了一步。不但要纠正社会的不利条件，还试图纠正天赋的或生来的不利条件，实现理想主义的“生而平等”。一旦社会主义的机会平等得以实现，结果的差异反映的就只是爱好和选择的差异，而不再是自然和社会的能力和权力的差异。

With left-wing liberalism compared to the equality of opportunity，The equality of socialism is a step further。Not only should correcting social disadvantage，Still trying to correct the talent was born or adverse conditions，Realize the ideal of socialism“Are created equal”。Once the socialism can realize the equality of opportunity，The results reflect the differences of the hobby and choice is the difference，And no longer is natural and social ability and power of the differences。

　　不论哪种类型的平等，都不大可能得到完全实现。正如被称为经济自由主义标杆人物的美国经济学家弗里德曼所说：“实实在在的机会平等——即所谓‘同等’是不可能的……像每一种理想一样，机会平等很难完全得到实现。”那么，如果各国政府以“机会平等”为原则制定政策，就会有许多难以把握或过度苛求之处。在这种情况下，“包容性增长”的概念或许比单纯的“机会平等”更具可行性。

No matter which kinds of types of equality，All is unlikely to be fully realized。As is called economic liberalism benchmarking characters of American economist Milton friedman said：“The truth-that the so-called equal opportunities‘equal’Is not possible......Like every kind of ideal，Equality of opportunity is hard to fully implemented。”so，If governments to“Equality of opportunity”For the principle policy，There will be many difficult or excessive demanding place。In this case，“Inclusive growth”Perhaps more than the concept of pure“Equality of opportunity”More feasibility。

　　应重视生产型就业机会平等 Should attach importance to the equal employment opportunities and production

　　世界银行的关于包容性增长的研究报告指出，“包容性增长”，与“基础广泛的增长”、“分享型增长”、“亲穷人的增长”经常互换，但他们之间有区别。其主要特征包括：

The world bank about tolerance of the growth of the study says，“Inclusive growth”，and“The growth of broad-based”、“Share type growth”、“Close the poor growth”Often interchangeable，But is there a difference between them。Its main features include：

　　第一，包容性增长不同于传统的定义，既强调经济增长的速度也强调经济增长的方式，二者相互联系且被共同强调。经济增长的速度对贫困的实质减少无疑是重要的，但是，为了经济增长在长期的可持续，经济增长必须是基础广泛且包容这个国家最大多数的劳动力人口的增长。包容性增长的定义，既隐含了增长决定的微观和宏观因素的直接联系，又表达了经济多样化和竞争对经济结构转型的重要性。

The first，Inclusive growth is different from traditional definition，Emphasize the speed of economic growth also emphasize the way of economic growth，They interact with each other and common emphasis on contact。The speed of economic growth is the essence of the poor to reduce undoubtedly is important，but，In order to economic growth in the long-term sustainable，Economic growth is widely and inclusive basis to the country's most most labor population growth。The definition of inclusive growth，The growth is implied macro and micro factors to the direct link，And the economic diversification and competition expression of the economic structure of the importance of transformation。

　　第二，包容性增长，是以投资和增加生产型就业机会为导向，加快经济增长速度和扩大经济规模的增长。即包容性增长更倾向于通过增加生产型就业机会而不是直接的收入分配来实现其就业型的经济增长。具体而言，这种就业型的经济增长，通过各种类型企业的工资或自谋出路的就业（通常是微型企业），为个人创造新的工作岗位和收入。

The second，Inclusive growth，Investment and increase in manufacturing employment opportunities for guidance，To speed up the economic growth and expansion of the size of the economy growth。That is inclusive growth through increased more inclined to manufacturing employment opportunities rather than direct income distribution to achieve its employment type of economic growth。In particular，The employment of the type of economic growth，Through the different types of enterprises or seek a way out of the salary of employment（Usually miniature enterprise），To create new jobs and personal income。

　　第三，包容性增长，应当使人们平等、广泛地参与经济增长的过程并从中受益。世界银行强调，这个方面，机会平等对包容性增长显得非常重要。

The third，Inclusive growth，Should make people equal、Widely participate in the process of economic growth and benefit from it。The world bank emphasize，This aspect，The equality of opportunity for inclusive growth is very important。

　　对生产型就业机会而不是直接的收入分配的强调是重要的，这种强调既是为了实现当下可能的就业型经济增长，也是为了避免那种侧重分配收入而忽视创造收入的“福利病”，从而使得经济社会体制缺乏活力。联合国助理秘书长乔莫就指出，尽管中国面临着收入分配等方面的很大挑战，但是生产型就业机会的增加和经济的快速增长，使得中国在减贫方面取得了重大成就。

In manufacturing employment opportunity, not to direct the distribution of income emphasize is important，This emphasis on both in order to realize the possible employment type economic growth，In order to avoid the distribution is on income and ignore create income“Welfare disease”，So that economic social system lack of energy。The United Nations secretary general Joe's assistant pointed out，Although China is faced with the income distribution, and other aspects of the great challenges，But productive employment opportunities and the increase of the fast growth of the economy，Make China's poverty reduction in achieved great success。

　　对应于生产型就业的提出，有很多关于“无就业增长”的讨论。麦肯锡研究院的一份名为《就业创造和美国的未来》最新报告指出，美国经济在过去20年中经历着越来越漫长的衰退后的“无就业复苏”困境；在20世纪80年代的衰退中，就业需要大约6个月时间恢复到衰退前的水平，1990~1991年和2001年的衰退，这个恢复期分别为15个月和39个月；从最近创造就业的速度看，从2010年12月算起，就业复苏需要60多个月，即到2016年才可能恢复在2008年至2009年经济衰退期间失去的700万个工作岗位。无就业的经济增长或者无就业的经济复苏，是我们理解生产型就业相关问题的重要背景。

Corresponding to the manufacturing employment put forward，There're a lot about“No job growth”discussion。McKinsey, a research institute named《Employment creation and the American future》The latest report，The U.S. economy in the past 20 years experience more and more long after the recession“No employment recovery”dilemma；In the 1980 s in the recession，Employment need about six months time to recover to levels seen before the recession，1990 ~ 1991 and 2001 years of recession，The recovery respectively for 15 months and 39 months；Job creation from recent speed look，From December 2010 count，Employment recovery needs more than 60 months，That is 2016 years to may recover in 2008 to 2009 during a recession lost 7 million jobs。No employment economic growth or no employment of the economic recovery，Is our understanding of the important problems related to the manufacturing employment background。

　　类似世界银行对包容性增长的解释，亚洲开发银行2011年的研究报告及其前首席经济学家阿里的研究，都主张从创造新的生产型就业和经济机会、拓宽获得平等机会的渠道（诸如在教育、医疗和其他社会服务以拓展人类能力，消除市场失灵、制度失灵和社会排斥）、完善起到安全网与跳板作用的社会保护三个方面来重构包容性增长战略。阿里也强调：包容性增长并不是以再次分配的手段为基础来解决不平等问题的，而是关注于创造机会并保证获得机会的公平。目前，亚洲开发银行正在开发一种更具操作性和指导性的指标体系，包括8大类35个小项，来衡量和指导包容性增长的实践。这8大类指标体系包括：（1）贫困与不平等，（2）经济增长和就业，（3）主要基础设施资源，（4）获得教育和医疗的途径，（5）获得基础设施和服务的途径，（6）性别平等和机会，（7）社会安全网，（8）好的治理和制度。

Similar to the growth of the world bank inclusive explanation，The Asian development bank 2011 years of research report and its former chief economist ali's research，Advocate from create new productive employment and economic opportunity、Of equal opportunity for broaden the channels（In education such as、Health care and other social services to expand the human ability，Eliminate market failure、System failure and social exclusion）、A safety net and perfect springboard role of social protection three aspects to reconstruct the inclusive growth strategy。Ali also stressed：Inclusive growth is not the means of redistribution for foundation to solve the inequality，But focus on creating an opportunity and ensure that you get the chance to fair。At present，The Asian development bank are developing a more practical and guiding index system，8 categories including 35 events，To measure and guide the practice of inclusive growth。The index system including 8 categories：（1）Poverty and inequality，（2）Economic growth and employment，（3）The major infrastructure resources，（4）Get education and medical approach，（5）Get the infrastructure and the path of service，（6）Gender equality and opportunity，（7）Social safety net，（8）Good management and system。

　　西方正在反思经济自由化理念下的政府职能 Western economic liberalization are rethinking the concept of government functions

　　20多年前的“华盛顿共识”告诉人们，应当尽量减少政府的职能。于是将国有企业私有化、极度弱化商业监管等措施，一度成为所谓“非市场经济国家”改革的金科玉律。然而，在拉美和前苏联惨痛的经验后，西方经济学界已经开始反思政府在经济发展中的真正作用。

20 years ago“The Washington consensus”Tell people，Should try our best to reduce the function of the government。So will the state-owned enterprise privatization、Extreme measures such as weakening business regulation，Had become a so-called“Non-market economies”The golden rule of reform。however，In Latin America and the former Soviet union after the painful experience，Western economics have begun to reflect on the government in the economic development of the real effect。

　　前面提到的世界银行《可持续增长和包容性发展》报告总结说，自从20世纪50年代至今，全球只有13个经济体的年均经济增长率达到了7%以上、并持续25年以上。而这些成功的经济体的一个共同特征，就是他们都有一个日益能干、可靠和有责任感的政府，即一个有领导力和有效的政府。要取得成功，决策者的诺言必须可靠、有包容性，要使人民相信自己或自己的后代会充分地分享经济发展的果实。在这个意义上，经济发展所面临的要害问题还不是资本的缺乏，而是政府在经济活动中所扮演的适当角色。包括这份报告的作者、诺贝尔经济学奖得主斯宾塞、世界银行前首席经济学家斯蒂格利茨等西方主流学者，以及世界银行和国际货币基金组织的负责人在内的西方人士，都纷纷表示要对市场的局限以及政府的作用进行重新审视或反思。

Of the above mentioned the world bank《Sustainable growth and inclusive development》The report concluded that，Since the 1950 s to the present day，Only 13 of the global economy with an annual economic growth rate achieved 7% above、And lasts 25 years。And these successful economies of a common characteristic，Is that they all have an increasingly capable、Reliable and have sense of responsibility of the government，That is a leadership and effective government。To succeed，Decision makers promise must be reliable、Have inclusiveness，To make people believe in yourself or his own offspring will be fully share the fruits of economic development。In this sense，The economic development of the key issues facing is not the lack of capital，But the government in economic activity in the role of the proper role。Including the authors of the report、Nobel economic prize winner spencer、The world bank's former chief economist SiDiGeLiCi and other western mainstream scholars，And the world bank and the international monetary fund, the person in charge of the people in the west，Said to have the limitations of the market and the government's role of review or reflection。

　　2010年9月，世界银行行长佐利克在美国乔治·华盛顿大学的演讲中指出：“华盛顿共识”正在淡出历史舞台，人们也不可能有一个从一个城市到全世界都可适用的政治经济学共识。佐利克解释说，尽管市场和政府都可能失灵，但是良好的治理、反腐败、法治之类的政府治理角色的重要性将超越单一经济效率的考量。此外，除去这些基本的原则，经验显示一刀切的模式存在问题；从不同经济发展阶段的经济发展战略（比如是出口导向还是内需导向）到不同经济发展阶段的金融管制措施，都可能要差别化对待。甚至，佐利克还对过去若干年来发达国家的伪善（包括在涉及能源、财政政策、贸易政策、债务水平等一系列问题上的“依我所言、勿仿我行”）和旧的世界经济模式提出了尖锐的批评。很明显，世界银行领导人对世界各国经济社会发展多样性、差别化政策和政府治理角色重要性的强调，以及对发达国家伪善和世界经济旧模式的批评，是对某些发达国家一度倡导和推行的、包打天下的“华盛顿共识”的否定。

September 2010，World bank President Robert zoellick in the United States of George Washington university said in the speech：“The Washington consensus”Are faded out from the stage of history，People also could not have had a from one city to the world are applicable political economics consensus。Zoellick explained，Although the market and the government may malfunction，But the good governance、anti-corruption、The rule of such importance of the role of government management will be beyond a single economic efficiency considerations。In addition，Remove these basic principles，Experience suggests that one size fits all "mode has a problem；From different economic development stage of economic development strategy（For example is export-oriented or domestic demand oriented）To different economic development stages of the financial control measures，All may be differentiation treat。even，Zoellick also to the last several years to the developed countries of the hypocrisy（Including involved in energy、Fiscal policy、Trade policy、A series of problems, such as debt levels“As I said、Don't copy me”）And the old world economic model sharp criticism。obviously，The world bank leaders of the world economic and social development diversity、Differentiation policy and government management and the importance of the role emphasis，And in the developed countries and the world economy and the old mode hypocrisy of criticism，Some developed countries is to advocate and pushing the once、BaoDaTianXia of“The Washington consensus”denial。

　　2011年4月，还是在美国乔治·华盛顿大学，时任国际货币基金组织总裁卡恩更大声地公开批评若干年前由国际货币基金组织和世界银行等机构推行的“华盛顿共识”，批评过去若干年来的经济社会政策对平等问题的淡化和漠视，力度比佐利克有过之而无不及。卡恩声称主张私有化、自由化和去管制化的“华盛顿共识”已经成为历史，并倡导对热钱进行管制，增加社会凝聚和包容性、夯实经济社会可持续发展的平等基础。“新的全球化”、“更加公平的全球化”、“更具人性的全球化”、“社会包容性的增长模式”、“政府和市场相互补充、相互平衡”、“多边主义和合作”成为卡恩此次演讲的关键词。看得出，这位国际货币基金组织的负责人在向全世界宣布，世界需要一种新的政治经济发展战略和意识形态。

April 2011，In the United States or George Washington university，The international monetary fund managing director dominique strauss-kahn more loudly publicly criticized several years ago by the international monetary fund and the world bank and other institutions of implementation“The Washington consensus”，Criticism over the past several years to economic and social policy for equality of desalination and ignored，Strength than zoellick more so。Kahn says claims privatisation、Liberalisation and deregulated“The Washington consensus”Has become history，And advocate for hot money for control，Increase social cohesion and tolerance、Ramming of sustainable economic and social development of equal basis。“The new global”、“More fair globalization”、“More human nature of globalization”、“Social inclusive growth mode”、“The government and the market complement each other、Balance each other”、“Multilateralism and cooperation”Become the key words this speech oliver kahn。Could see that，The international monetary fund to the world to the person in charge of the announcement，The world needs a new political and economic development strategy and ideology。

　　世界已进入后华盛顿共识时代 The world has the Washington consensus era

　　刚刚卸任世界银行副总裁的林毅夫经常向中国读者推荐由斯宾塞主持的《可持续增长和包容性发展》研究报告，提醒人们反思“华盛顿共识”的缺陷，积极审视政府在经济发展中的重要作用，尤其是对处于不同发展阶段的经济体而言。林毅夫在接受采访时多次表示，不仅要认识到“华盛顿共识”的固有缺陷，而且还要超越传统凯恩斯主义意义上“挖洞”、“补洞”的财政刺激，用能够提高生产率、消除增长瓶颈的投资作为公共财政刺激的主要对象。

Just step down the world bank vice President Lin to Chinese readers to recommend often hosted by spencer《Sustainable growth and inclusive development》report，Remind people reflection“The Washington consensus”defects，Look at the government in a positive economic development in an important role，Especially in different stage of development in economy。Justin yifu Lin in an interview said many times，Not only to realize“The Washington consensus”The inherent defect of，And even beyond the traditional Keynesian sense“Dig a hole”、“Fill holes”Fiscal stimulus，Use can increase productivity、Eliminate bottlenecks investment as a public fiscal stimulus the main object。

　　林毅夫富有启发地总结和强调了政府作用对处于不同发展阶段的发展中国家和发达国家的不同重要性。第一，不同发展水平的国家的经济结构是不一样的，经济结构里面包括产业结构，还有金融、贸易、劳动力市场的结构。第二，经济发展过程是一个结构不断变动的过程，在不同阶段结构特性是不一样的，因此政策特性也不一样。适合发达国家的政策，跟适合于发展中国家的政策是不一样的，必须根据不同发展阶段国家的特性、生产活动的特性等等来提出政策框架。第三，在经济发展过程当中，市场和政府的作用并重。由于过去提出的大部分的经济理论是根据发达国家经验，他们的结构相对成熟、稳定，政府的作用就不那么凸显，所以，理论上强调市场，忽视了政府的作用。

Justin yifu Lin inspired to summarize and emphasize that the government role in different development stages of the developing countries and developed countries of different importance。The first，Different development level of the country's economic structure is not the same，The economic structure contains the industrial structure，And financial、trade、The structure of the labor market。The second，Economic development process is a structure changing process，In different stage structure characteristics are not the same，Therefore the policy characteristics is not the same。For the developed countries of the policy，With suitable for developing countries policy are not the same，According to the different stage of development must be the characteristics of the country、The characteristics of production activity, and so on to propose the policy framework。The third，In the economic development in the process，The role of the market and the government pay equal attention to。As the past the most economic theory put forward is according to the experiences of developed countries，The structure of their relatively mature、stability，The role of government is not so prominent，so，In theory emphasizes the market，Ignore the role of government。

　　而在过去若干年里，尤其是在很多发展中国家和经济体，对稳定化等“华盛顿共识”教条的过分迷信，造成了政府作用的大幅萎缩。例如，对宏观稳定压倒其他目标（就业、增长和发展）的过分强调，使得政府有激励去削减各种开支，包括基础设施、社会保障以及其他公共投资。针对林毅夫的上述主张，斯蒂格利茨在2011年7月《反思发展经济学》的论文中指出：政府不仅有约束性的作用，也有建设性和促进的作用，例如，在促进企业家才能、提供社会和基础设施、确保教育和金融资源的获得、支持技术和创新等方面。当然，这并不是说政府的角色是完美和不可挑剔的，政府也会失灵、政府需要人民的监督并参与其中；但是，有必要如斯蒂格利茨指出的那样认识到，“政府不仅有约束性的作用，也有建设性和促进的作用”，市场和政府的作用应该并重。

And in the last several years，Especially in many developing countries and economies，For stabilization and“The Washington consensus”Doctrine of too superstitious，The role of government by a shrinking。For example，On macro stability trump the other goals（employment、Growth and development）Too much emphasis，Make the government have incentives to cut various expenses，Including infrastructure、Social security and other public investment。According to the above claim of Lin，SiDiGeLiCi in July 2011《Reflect on development economics》The paper points out：The government has not only binding effect，Also a constructive and promote the role，For example，In promoting entrepreneurial talent、Provide social and infrastructure、Ensure that education and financial resources are available、Support technology and innovation。Of course，This is not to say that the role of the government is perfect and not picky，The government will also failure、The government needs to people's supervision and participate in；but，If necessary SiDiGeLiCi pointed out that recognize，“The government has not only binding effect，Also a constructive and promote the role”，The role of the market and the government should pay equal attention to。

　　尽管“包容性增长”的政策理念可能还存在着某种不足或缺陷（比如对不平等的阶级根源的进一步追溯），但是我们应该看到，从主张私有化、自由化和稳定化的“华盛顿共识”到批评私有化和自由化的“后华盛顿共识”，再到倡导生产型就业和公共投资、主张经济增长速度和经济增长方式的统一、人们平等广泛地参与经济增长过程并从中受益的“包容性增长”，以世界银行和国际货币基金组织等国际组织倡导的意识形态正在发生某种程度的转变。明显地，这个由世界银行、亚洲开发银行等国际组织率先提出的“包容性增长”理念，是对过去一段时间以来某些西方国家和国际组织推行的“华盛顿共识”之类的市场原教旨主义的自我局部修正。就连宣告“历史终结说”的日裔美国学者福山最近也指出，世界经济危机凸显了资本主义制度内在的不稳定性，美国式资本主义已经从神坛上跌落下来，世界已经进入“后华盛顿共识”时代。

although“Inclusive growth”Policy ideas may still exist some shortage or defect（For instance, in not equal class root of further back），But we should see，That privatization from、Liberalisation and stabilization“The Washington consensus”To the criticism of privatization and liberalization“Washington consensus after”，To advocate productive employment and public investment、Argue that economic growth speed and the unity of the pattern of economic growth、People widely participate in equal economic growth process and benefit from it“Inclusive growth”，With the world bank and the international monetary fund and other international organizations by the ideology is occurring some degree of change。obviously，The world bank、The Asian development bank and other international organizations of the first put forward“Inclusive growth”concept，For the past is for a long time now some western countries and international organizations of implementation“The Washington consensus”The market such as the fundamentalist self local fixed。Even declared“Historical end said”The Japanese American scholars also recently pointed out that fushan，The world economic crisis highlighted the capitalist system immanent instability，American capitalism has from the shrines fall out，The world has entered into“Washington consensus after”era。

　　中国经济增长离不开 China's economic growth cannot leave

　　一个有效的政府 An effective government

　　包容性增长和可持续发展是不容易的。尽管中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成功——按照国际货币基金组织的说法，中国的人均收入在2010年已达到4280美元，进入了世界银行所说的中等收入国家行列。但是，我们也不好说，放眼全球风景这边独好，因为中国也面临着这样那样的问题有待解决。按照统计学的说法，平均数毕竟不是中位数，4280美元的人均收入水平掩盖了国内发展水平的巨大差异。但是，持续几十年的快速经济增长使中国站在了一个中等收入国家的新历史起点上，我们也将更有信心和勇气面对各种各样的挑战和困难。

Inclusive growth and sustainable development is not easy。Although China's economy has achieved remarkable success--according to the international monetary fund said，China's per capita income in the 2010 years up to 4280 dollars，The world bank said in the middle-income countries club。but，We don't know，Thereisnoanother a breath-taking scenery，Because China is also facing such problems remain to be solved。According to the statistics of the claim，Average after all is not the median，Us $4280 per capita income level covers the domestic development level of great differences。but，For decades of rapid economic growth, make China to be on a middle-income country's new historical starting point，We will also have more confidence and courage in the face of various kinds of challenges and difficulties。

　　研究后发展问题著称的美国MIT经济学家阿姆斯登研究总结称，成功的国家总是能够及时地、熟练地调整自己的相关政策以适应变化了的环境。当前，世界政治经济形势正在发生积极而深刻的变化，对我们中国而言，在践行科学发展观、促进社会和谐的道路上，强调经济增长的速度的同时，也强调经济增长的方式；强调经济增长的同时，也强调人民平等、广泛参与经济增长的过程并从中受益；强调通过增加投资和生产型就业机会，使人民平等、广泛参与经济增长的过程；包容性增长显得意义积极且正当其时。

After the research of the United States is famous for its development MIT economist summarized research on Ames says，Successful countries can always timely、Skillfully to adjust their policies in order to adapt to the changes in the environment。The current，The world political and economic situation is experiencing positive and profound changes，For China to us，In practicing the scientific concept of development、Promote social harmony of the roads，Emphasize the speed of economic growth at the same time，Also emphasize the way of economic growth；Emphasize to economic growth，Also stresses the people's equality、Wide participation of economic growth process and benefit from it；By increasing investment and production emphasis on employment opportunities，Make people's equality、Widely participate in the process of economic growth；Inclusive growth is active and in its meaning。

　　正如国家领导人讲话和“十二五”规划所反复强调的：包容性增长的根本目的是让经济全球化和经济发展成果惠及所有国家和地区、惠及所有人群，在可持续发展中实现经济社会协调发展；努力做到发展为了人民、发展依靠人民、发展成果由人民共享。坚持把保障和改善民生作为加快转变经济发展方式的根本出发点和落脚点。完善保障和改善民生的制度安排，把促进就业放在经济社会发展优先位置，加快发展各项社会事业，推进基本公共服务均等化，加大收入分配调节力度，坚定不移地走共同富裕道路，使发展成果惠及全体人民。

As national leaders and speech“1025”Planning of repeatedly：The fundamental purpose is inclusive growth of economic globalization and economic development to the benefits of all countries and regions、Benefit all the crowd，In sustainable development realize the coordinate development of the economic society；Trying to make the development for the people、Development on people's、The achievements of development should be Shared by the people。To guarantee and improve the livelihood of the people as to speed up the transformation of the mode of economic development essential starting point and the foothold。Perfect the security and improving the people's livelihood arrangement of system，To promote employment in economic and social development priority position，To speed up the development of social undertakings，Promote equal access to basic public service，Increase the income distribution adjustment dynamics，Unswervingly take the road of common prosperity，Make the benefits of development to all the people。

　　在落实“十二五”规划、推动经济社会又好又快发展的过程中，基于中国国情和13亿人口的包容性增长实践，可能会进一步丰富并超越包容性增长本身的内涵、为包容性增长理念注入中国元素、探索出包容性增长的中国经验。自不待言，对实现中国经济社会的包容性增长和可持续发展而言，一个有领导力和有效的政府是不可或缺的。

In order to“1025”planning、Promote eco-social development process，Based on China's national conditions and 1.3 billion population growth toleration of practice，May further enriched and inclusive growth itself beyond the connotation、For inclusive growth idea into the Chinese elements、Explore inclusive growth of China's experience。Needless to say，To realize the toleration of China's economic and social sustainable development and growth is concerned，A leadership and effective government is indispensable。