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暴跌中的基金:上投摩根抗跌靠医药 东吴错配周期--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-16
5月7日至7月13日大跌中,326只普通股票型基金复权单位净值增长率均值为-1.24% May 7, to July 13 in the crash,326 only common stock fund answer authority unit net value growth rate was 1.24%
理财周报见习记者 李沪生 实习记者 陈虹霖/文
Financial management trainee practice reporter LiHuSheng weekly newspaper reporters ChenHongLin/text
5月7日至7月13日,大盘暴跌266.11点,成为今年“M”形走势中市场最不愿意看到的下滑一边。据同花顺(300033,股吧)数据,此轮大跌中326只普通股票型基金复权单位净值增长率均值为-1.24%。
May 7, to July 13,,Grail tumbled 266.11 points,Become this year“M”Form in the market trend do not want to see a side of the downturn。According to straight flush(300033,Shares it)data,This round of common stock plunged 326 only answer authority fund net value of the unit growth rate was 1.24%。
其中,把握住食品饮料、医药、房地产等领涨板块的基金如上投摩根新兴动力、广发聚瑞、诺德中小盘,占据“暴跌中最为抗跌”的基金前三名;而华富量子生命力、易方达资源和东吴行业因踏空领涨板块的基金则不幸成为榜单后三位。
Among them,Grasp the food and beverage、medicine、Real estate rose above the fund brought plate for Morgan emerging power、Wide hair negotiable gather red、Nordic small dish,occupy“Most of collapse in fall”The fund of the top three;But quantum vitality of huafu、YiFangDa resources and dongwu industry for step empty brought up parts of the fund is unfortunate become after the list three。
尽管在此轮行情中众基金看法不一,导致业绩差距较大,但是对于后市,看法颇为一致。即均看好消费、医药、节能环保等板块。
Although in this round of price are divided on the fund,Lead to greater performance gaps,But to market outlook,Quite consistent opinion。They are bullish on consumption、medicine、Sectors such as energy conservation and environmental protection。
抗跌基金均踩中医药股 Resistance to fall on funds have Chinese medicine shares
从5月7日截至7月13日的复权单位净值增长率来看,表现最好的为上投摩根新兴动力,收益率达到11.94%,广发聚瑞和诺德中小盘分别以11.8%和11.76%紧随其后,排在前十的还有易方达医疗行业、添富医药、万家精选、华宝兴业医疗生物、泰达宏利成长、长信内需和华宝兴业新兴产业。
From May 7 at July 13 answer authority unit net value growth rate and see,Best for throwing Morgan emerging power,Yield up to 11.94%,Wide hair negotiable together and nord red small dish at 11.8% and 11.76% respectively followed,The top 10 and YiFangDa medical industry、Add rich medicine、selected、The medical biological huabao bird、The teda manuterm growth、Long letter domestic demand and the new industry huabao bird。
最抗跌的上投摩根新兴动力,一季报显示的仓位为87.41%,前十大重仓股中医药股较多,包括康美药业(600518,股吧)、仁和药业(000650,股吧)、双鹭药业(002038,股吧)。
Most of the cast down on Morgan emerging power,A quarterly reports show position for 87.41%,Top 10 heavy warehouse strands of more traditional Chinese medicine,Including sig pharmaceutical(600518,Shares it)、Benevolence and pharmaceutical(000650,Shares it)、Double heron pharmaceutical(002038,Shares it)。
“我们整个团队的投资理念都是个股是第一位的,然后才是选行业、再是择时。我们非常强调基金经理的个股的选择能力。”上投摩根投资总监冯刚表示,“我们投研部门在今年初的时候就做过判断,消费和投资已经进入一个拐点了,消费绝对是未来的大方向,是不可逆转的。”
“Our whole team investment philosophy is a shares is the first,Then choose industry、Timing is again。We are very stressed fund manager's stocks choose ability。”Morgan chief investment officer for the FengGang said,“We've made a research department earlier this year when the judge did,Consumption and investment has entered into the inflection point,Consumption is absolutely the general direction of the future,Is irreversible。”
从名单中不难看出,医药行业基金表现都很突出。记者发现,在上半年的结构性行情中,凡是把握住了食品饮料、医药、房地产等领涨板块的基金均取得了较好的收益。
It is not hard to see from the list,The pharmaceutical industry fund performance is very outstanding。Reporter discovery,In the first half of the year in structural market,Grasp all the food and drink、medicine、Real estate up parts of the funds have brought achieved good returns。
这一点在广发聚瑞身上得以验证。资料显示,今年上半年该基金持仓比例相对较高的行业依次为食品饮料、装修园林和品牌服装,而这三个行业上半年整体表现比较理想。广发聚瑞也以11.8%的收益率排在第二。
This point in guangdong has been verified on Rachel together。Data shows,In the first half of this year the fund relative higher proportion position is in the food and beverage industry、Decorate garden and brand clothing,While the three industry overall performance in the first half is ideal。Together with wide hair negotiable rick to 11.8% return in the second row。
广发聚瑞基金经理刘明月表示,对下半年的大盘走势仍持中性看法,目前经济尚处于底部区域,在此情况下,结构性机会依然占据主导,食品饮料、医药、品牌服装、地产、汽车、保险、券商等受益行业仍是未来投资的重点。
Fund manager LiuMingYue wide hair negotiable together red said,In the second half of the year to market trends still holding a neutral view,The economy is still in the bottom area,In this case,Structural opportunity still occupied the leading,Food and beverage、medicine、Brand clothing、Real estate、car、insurance、Brokers and industry is still benefit from the investment future focus。
而在前十名中,华宝兴业是唯一一家有两只基金挺进前十的公司。
And in the top 10,Huabao bird is the only one the have two funds into the top 10 of the company。
从5月7日至7月13日的复权单位净值增长率来看,华宝兴业的医药生物、新兴产业分别为9.54%、8.02%,都是得益于对医药生物等上涨行业的高配置。其新兴产业基金经理郭鹏飞接受理财周报记者采访时表示,二季度以来,仓位和行业基本没有大的调整,“你去看我的重仓股,和前两个季度基本没有什么大的变化。仓位上我在一季报里也提到过了,3月初,考虑到市场风险以及中小盘股扩容压力,我们减持了业绩不达预期的以及涨幅过大的个股,将仓位降低到了中等水平。之后这段时间的仓位基本保持在这个水平。现在大概在八十几。”
From May 7, to July 13 answer authority unit net value growth rate and see,The biological medicine and gemstones、New industries were 9.54%、8.02%,Aided by creatures in medicine industry rising high configuration。The new industry fund manager GuoPengFei accept financial weekly newspaper reporter to interview said,Since the second quarter,Position and industry no large adjustment basic,“You go to see my heavy warehouse shares,And the first two quarters basic no big change。I'm in a position on the quarterly reports also mentioned,In early march,Considering the market risk and small dish stock expansion pressure,We holdings by performance does not reach the expected rise too much and individual stocks,Will drop to a position before the medium level。This period of time after the basic keep at this level position。Now about eight in 10。”
至于接下来市场的走势和策略,郭鹏飞表示持谨慎态度,“策略上还是继续关注节能环保、TMT、生物、高端装备制造。”
As for the next the trend of the market and the strategy,GuoPengFei said cautious attitude,“Strategy or continue to focus on energy conservation and environmental protection、TMT、biological、High-end equipment manufacturing。”
万家精选基金经理吴印亦表示,二季度基金持仓与一季度没有太大变化,依旧是选择盈利性比较高的股票,主要重仓在电子、医药和消费品上。下半年大的方向也不会改变,对于阶段性可能会有反弹的周期股,不会对其持有太多。
Selected funds manager WuYin also said,In the second quarter of fund and quarter doesn't open change,Still is to choose the profitability of relatively high stock,Main heavy warehouse in electronics、Medical and consumer goods。The second half of the big picture won't change,For stage may have the bounce of the cycle shares,Not likely to hold too much。
好买基金的数据显示,截至6月14日,上投摩根新兴动力、广发聚瑞、诺德中小盘、华宝兴业新兴产业的仓位均为95%,万家精选仓位为94.37%,易方达医疗保健仓位为70.69%,汇添富医药保健仓位为69.76%。
Good buy fund figures show,By June 14,,Drop Morgan emerging power、Wide hair negotiable gather red、Nordic small dish、The new industry positions huabao bird were 95% for both,For 94.37% selected position,YiFangDa medical care position for 70.69%,Collect add rich medicine health care for 69.76% position。
A股再创新低医药股反弹力度大 基金小幅加仓 A shares reached A new low of rebound strength big fund medicine small and warehouse
7月9日,A股再次迎来“黑色”星期一,上证指数大跌52点,创半年来新低。然而此前两周,不少基金选择小幅加仓,接下来的市场却一路下挫,毫不给面子。
July 9,,A-share again)“black”Monday,The Shanghai index plunged 52 points,And half a year to new lows。However the week before,Many small and warehouse fund selection,The next market has a fall,Not face。
大势下跌的环境下,依然存在结构性的上涨行情。比如医药生物、白酒行业、纺织服装和保险。所以不少冠名“新兴动力”、“医药行业”的基金,长期高配医药、消费股,在这波下跌行情中实现逆势增长。但这些行业在一季度表现欠佳,中医药生物一季度曾下跌3.01%。
Half of the fall under the environment,There are still rising structural market。Such as medical biological、Liquor industry、Textile clothing and insurance。So many named“Emerging power”、“Pharmaceutical industry”fund,Long-term high ticket medicine、Consumer stock,In this wave downturns realize contrarian growth。But these industries in poor performance in the first quarter,Traditional Chinese medicine biological quarter had fallen 3.01%。
众禄基金研究中心数据显示,开放式偏股型基金(包括股票型基金和混合型基金,剔除QDII和指数型基金)平均仓位已经由6月25日那一周的77.22%连续两周小幅加仓至目前的78.29%,仓位上升了1.07个百分点。其中,股票型基金平均仓位为83.31%,较两周前上升1.32个百分点;混合型基金平均仓位为70.03%,较两周前上升0.66个百分点。
The fund research center Paul figures show,Open slant model fund(Including stock fund and mixed fund,Eliminate the QDII and index fund)Average positions by June 25, has 77.22% of the week for two weeks with a warehouse to 78.29% now,Position rose 1.07%。Among them,Stock fund average positions for 83.31%,Two weeks ago is up 1.32%;Hybrid funds for 70.03% average positions,Two weeks ago is up 0.66%。
450只偏股型基金中,上周有15只仓位保持不变,有170只选择减仓,有265只选择加仓。从具体基金公司来看,泰达宏利、建信、交银、南方、申万菱信、民生加银、景顺长城等基金公司均存在加仓痕迹,而天弘、信诚、鹏华、诺安、融通、兴业全球(340006,基金吧)、天治则进行了不同程度的减仓。
450 only slant model fund,Only last week 15 positions remain unchanged,There are 170 only choose decrease a storehouse,There are 265 only choose and warehouse。From the specific fund company to see,The teda manuterm、Built letter、/ silver、south、ShenWanLing letter、People's livelihood and silver、The Great Wall, etc JingShun fund company there are scaling out trace,And day hong、xincheng、Peng hua、's Ann、financing、Industrial global(340006,Fund it)、Day in different degree of therapeutic decrease a storehouse。
国都证券的数据也显示,7月2日这周资产管理规模最大的六家基金公司一致性地进行了主动加仓,其中嘉实主动加仓的幅度最大。国都证券表示,“7月5日主要股指在盘中创出本轮调整的新低后出现反弹,在这样的背景下,基金进行了主动小幅加仓,一定程度上说明基金对政策利好下后市的看法在谨慎中略显乐观。”
Countries of the securities data also show,July 2, this week asset management, the biggest of six fund company consistency on the active and warehouse,One fine fruit positions well the largest amount of active。Countries securities said,“On July 5, the major indexes in the plate making this adjustment of the rebound comes after new lows,In this context,The small and active fund storehouse,Some degree of policy that fund under the good opinion is in caution is shown slightly optimistic。”
截至7月9日的好买数据显示,有数据的66家基金公司平均仓位达到82.23%。仓位最高的为富安达基金,达到95%,领先第二名浙商基金接近3个百分点,仓位较低的为东方基金和国联安基金,分别为62.07%和62.42%。
By July 9 good buy data shows,Of the 66 data fund company average positions reached 82.23%。The highest position for rich anda fund,95%,The top of zheshang fund close to 3%,Position the lower for the east HeGuoLian fund, fund,To 62.07% and 62.42%, respectively。
2012年年中规模排名前十的基金公司,除了大成基金以平均84.29%的仓位排在所有公司第23位,广发和南方略高于80%以外,剩下的公司皆低于80%,处于所有公司的后二分之一,其中
In the middle of 2012 scale the top ten fund company,In addition to an average 84.29% becomes fund the positions in all company platoon 23 rd,Wide hair negotiable and south strategy outside more than 80%,The rest of the company are less than 80%,In all the company's half after,Among them
最低的为今年的新进前十的基金公司——汇添富,仓位仅为69.63%。
The lowest for this year's top ten new of fund company--which add rich,Position is only 69.63%。
下半年共同看好环保、地产等行业 The second half of common good environmental protection、Real estate industry, etc
在此轮下跌行情中,净值下跌最厉害的十名是东吴行业(580003,基金吧)轮动、易方达资源行业、华富量子生命力、诺安中小盘精选、东吴新经济(310358,基金吧)、华宝兴业动力组合(240004,基金吧)、景顺长城新兴成长(260108,基金吧)、中银中小盘、金鹰稳健成长和富国天合稳健优选(100026,基金吧),收益率分别为-14.11%、-12.48%、-11.72%、-10.79%、-10.06%、-9.72%、-9.52%、-9.5%、-9.37%和-9.19%。
In this round of downturns,Net worth fell the most severe ten is the industry(580003,Fund it)turning、YiFangDa resources industry、Huafu quantum vitality、Enoch Ann small dish selection、Dongwu new economic(310358,Fund it)、The dynamic combination huabao bird(240004,Fund it)、The Great Wall JingShun emerging growth(260108,Fund it)、Boc small dish、Growing steadily and rich countries platinum TRW robust optimization(100026,Fund it),Yields for-14.11% respectively、-12.48%、-11.72%、-10.79%、-10.06%、-9.72%、-9.52%、-9.5%、-9.37% and 9.19%。
根据好买提供的数据显示,截至6月14日,东吴行业轮动、东吴新经济、景顺长城新兴成长、金鹰稳健成长、富国天合(100026,基金吧)稳健优选仓位均为95%,华富量子生命力仓位为91.74%,诺安中小盘精选仓位为87.05%,易方达资源行业仓位为82.97%,华宝兴业动力组合仓位为74.01%。
According to the good buy to provide the data show,By June 14,,Dongwu industry wheel move、Dongwu new economic、The Great Wall JingShun emerging growth、Jinying robust growth、Rich countries TRW(100026,Fund it)Robust optimization positions were 95% for both,Quantum vitality for 91.74% of huafu position,Enoch Ann small dish selected position for 87.05%,YiFangDa resources industry positions for 82.97%,The dynamic combination for positions huabao bird's 74.01%。
目前二季报暂未公布,因此无法得知它们的仓位配置,不过从一季度报表上可以看出些端倪,例如东吴行业轮动,一季度重仓在采掘业,占总比53.97%,制造业18.67%,金属非金属10.47%,三者占比超过整只基金配置80%;华富量子生命力也重仓28.47%在制造业,11.55%在金融保险业,10.86%在机械设备。而制造业、采掘业和机械今年来表现并不理想。
Now two quarterly reports are not released,So don't know their positions configuration,But in the quarter report can be found in some clue,For example the industry wheel move,Heavy warehouse in extractive industries in the first quarter,More than 53.97% of total,Manufacturing 18.67%,Metal non-metallic 10.47%,Three more than the whole fund account for more than 80% allocation;Huafu quantum vitality also heavy warehouse 28.47% in manufacturing,11.55% is in the financial and insurance,10.86% is in mechanical equipment。And manufacturing、Mining and mechanical performance is not ideal for this year。
华富量子生命力基金经理朱蓓表示,“目前市场主要受中报业绩影响,情绪过度悲观。根据历史统计,中报行情对个股涨跌有显著相关性,对市场趋势没有显著相关性。因此,我们认为,在政策拐点已然出现后,过度的悲观情绪并非理性,7、8月份的中报行情将是黎明前的黑暗。我们会利用中报行情机会,寻找错杀的优质股,为下半年行情做积极准备。”
The quantum fund manager ZhuBei huafu vitality said,“At present the market mainly by the performance center daily news influence,Too pessimistic mood。According to the historical statistics,Individual stocks go up drop to market center daily news has significant correlation,The trend of the market no significant correlation。so,We think,In the policy inflection point after already appear,Excessive pessimism is not rational,7、The market will be reported in August is the darkness before dawn。We will use center daily news market opportunities,Looking for the wrong kill high quality stocks,For the second half to make positive market。”
而东吴基金则直言,下半年市场走势的主导因素在于库存周期回补后预期的改善,A股市场将呈现区间震荡走势,在年底向上突破区间。
And the fund is the truth,The second half of the dominant factors of market trends in inventory cycle back to fill the improvement of the expected,The A share market will present interval concussion movements,By the end of the year up breakthrough interval。
其列举了诸多原因:首先是因为库存周期现在是主动去库存最剧烈的阶段,库存重新回补将在4季度出现。但受制于政策空间的约束,库存回补的弹性不大。其次流动性会缓慢改善,主要集中在货币市场领域,但难以出现流动性充裕和信贷宽松,不支持牛市行情,只能推动改善型行情。再者业绩有望在下半年见底,但依然将在底部上下震荡,类似于2002-2005年。估值虽然处于历史低位,但影响估值的因素已经发生变化,目前估值应当说是与基本面相匹配的。最后由于欧债危机风险集中爆发的时点和预期最差的时候可能就在3季度,之后预期将有所改善。
The lists the many reasons:First, because inventory cycle is now the most severe initiative to inventory the stage,Inventory to go back to fill in the fourth quarter will appear。Subject to the constraints of the policy space,Back to fill the elasticity of the inventory is not big。Second liquidity will slow improvement,Mainly in the currency markets,But difficult to appear ample liquidity and credit loose,Don't support the bull market,Can only promote improve type market。Moreover performance is expected to see bottom in the second half,But still in the bottom of fluctuation concussion,Similar to the 2002-2005。Although in the historical low valuations,But the impact of valuation of the factors have changed,Current valuations, and basic face should be matched。Finally because the debt crisis of the outbreak at risk concentration and expected the worst time may be in 3 quarter,Expected after will improve。
东吴基金表示,对于下半年投资方向主要关注三类行业:一是景气回升与稳定行业,主要包括医药、电子、食品饮料、电力;二是经济转型受益行业,主要包括环保、传媒、天然气、非银金融;三是稳增长受益行业,主要包括房地产、家电、装饰园林。
Dongwu fund said,For the second half of the investment direction focused on three kinds of industries:A back and stable industry was a boom,Mainly includes medical、electronic、Food and beverage、power;2 it is the transformation of the economic benefit industry,Mainly include environmental protection、media、Natural gas、The silver financial;3 it is steady growth benefit industry,Mainly include real estate、Home appliance、Adornment garden。
对于下半年走势的判断,上投摩根投资总监冯刚与东吴基金看法一致。至于接下来的投资策略,他指出,今年是投资相对活跃的一年,结构性机会较多,一些契合中国经济转型的成长股不断得到验证而脱颖而出,这些公司主要集中在品牌消费、医药、TMT、节能环保、建筑服务等细分行业;同时销售持续良好的地产行业,估值还有继续回升的空间。此外,大宗商品价格可能面临长期拐点,一些饱受原材料成本挤压的中下游产业很可能具有阶段性盈利改善的机会,典型如电力。综合而言,环保、节能、品牌消费、券商、保险、地产等行业为主要看好领域。
For the second half of the trend of judgment,Vote FengGang director Morgan investment and dongwu fund see eye to eye。As for the next investment strategy,He pointed out that,This year is relatively active investment for a year,Structural opportunity more,Some agree with China economic transformation of the growth stock constantly verified and stand out,The company mainly focus on brand consumption、medicine、TMT、Energy conservation and environmental protection、Building service industry segments;At the same time sales continue to good real estate industry,Valuations and continue to recover the space。In addition,Commodity prices may be faced with long-term inflection point,Some suffered from raw material costs of extrusion and industry is likely to profit opportunities for improvement are clear,Typical such as power。For comprehensive,Environmental protection、Energy saving、brands、brokers、insurance、Real estate industries as the main value field。
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