浙江在线07月12日讯2012~2015年，杭州市的商品住宅供应量会有多少？房价上涨幅度会有多大？

Zhejiang online 07 December 2012 ~ 2015)，The commodity residential house hangzhou supply can have how much？House prices have risen by how big？

　　最近，虽然限购限贷政策依旧没放松，但成交量的急速放大却引起人们对楼市再度出现反弹行情的担忧。杭州市政府刚出台的《杭州市“十二五”住房保障与房地产业发展规划》(下简称《规划》)却让我们对未来的房地产市场发展趋势作了一个大致判断，那就是，在巨大供应量面前，商品房价格虽然存在上涨的动力，但涨幅有限。

recent，Although 限购 limit credit policy still didn't relax，But the rapid amplification volume but it caused people to the property market rallies again to worry about。Hangzhou municipal government has just issued《hangzhou“1025”Housing safeguard and real estate industry development planning》(As under《planning》)But let us for the future of the real estate market development trends to a general judgment，That is，In the great before the supply，Commodity house price though there are rising power，But or limited。

2015年前 2015 years ago

每年开工3.8万~4.9万套住宅 Start each year 38000 ~ 49000 set of housing

　　据《规划》介绍，“十二五”期间，杭州规划的商品住房年开发量约950万至1083万平方米。其中，主城区年开发量约450万~583万平方米，五年建设总规模达2250万~2915万平方米。

According to《planning》introduction，“1025”during，Hangzhou planning in commercial housing some 9.5 million to 10.83 million square meters back hurriedly。Among them，City year about 4.5 million-5.83 million square meters back hurriedly，Five years construction total size of 22.5 million ~ 29.15 million square meters。

　　450万~583万平方米，这是怎样一个概念？目前市场主力供应户型是90平方米，综合大户型的供应，以120平方米的户均面积算，这450万~583万平方米，可折算成3.8万~4.9万套住宅。这些量能否满足市场需求？

4.5 million to 5.83 million square meters，This is how a concept？At present the market main supply door model is 90 square meters，The large family comprehensive supply，With 120 square meters of worth area works，The 4.5 million ~ 5.83 million square meters，Can convert 38000 ~ 49000 set of housing。These quantity can meet the demand of market？

　　今年上半年，杭州主城区商品房成交量为22085套。这样的成绩为2008年以来第二好，仅次于2009年。

In the first half of this year，Hangzhou city, the volume of commodity house of 22085 units。Such achievement for the second good since 2008，After 2009 years。

　　2008年以来，主城区历年的商品房成交套数分别为2008年的23202套、2009年的66319套、20010年的35960套、2011年的23346套。

Since 2008，In the commodity house of calendar year respectively for 2008 year cycle clinch a deal of 23202 sets、2009 years of 66319 sets、20010 years of 35960 sets、2011 years of 23346 sets。

　　平均一下，这4年的年平均新房成交套数约为37207套。

Average a，The four years of the average new home in a cycle of about 37207 sets of clinch a deal。

　　按照惯例，商品住宅的成交量一般占商品房的60%左右。由此推算，这4年年均商品住宅的成交套数为22324套。

According to the usual practice，Commodity residential house in the volume of sales account for about 60% of the general commodity house。That would，The four years of the annual average commodity residential house clinch a deal for 22324 sets of cycle。

　　若以22324套商品住宅的年成交量为参照，“十二五”期间假如每年有3.8万~4.9万套住宅入市，那么每年的供需是相对平衡的，甚至供远大于求。

If with 22324 sets of the commodity residential house in volume as reference，“1025”If every year during 38000 to 49000 sets of residential market，So every year is the relative balance of supply and demand，Even for far outweigh the request。

有供应量支撑 A supply support

房价上涨幅度有限 House prices have risen by limited

　　不过，尽管供应量并不小，但对整个“十二五”期间房地产市场形势的判断，《规划》有两点认定，一是“房地产需求量仍将维持在比较高水平”，二是“商品房价格上涨潜在压力大”。

but，Although supply is not small，But for the whole“1025”The real estate market during the judgement of the situation，《planning》There are two that，One is“Demand for real estate would remain at relatively high levels”，2 it is“Commodity house prices potential pressure”。

　　“房地产需求量仍将维持在比较高水平”这一判断的主要理由有三：一是中国经济进入平稳增长轨道，为房地产业发展奠定良好的经济基础；二是城市影响力、辐射力进一步增强，将继续吸引周边人口向杭州集中；三是“学在杭州”带来“住在杭州”的巨大需求。据统计，近年来仅省内高校毕业留杭学生约6万人，产生大量租房、购房的需求。

“Demand for real estate would remain at relatively high levels”The main reason for this judgment has three：Is that the economy into a steady growth in orbit，For the real estate industry development lays good economic basis；2 it is city influence、Radiation further strengthened，Will continue to attract surrounding population to hangzhou concentration；Three is“Learn in hangzhou”bring“Lives in hangzhou”Huge demand。According to the statistics，In recent years the only province university graduation stay hangzhou students is about 60000，Produce the large amount of rent、Buying demand。

　　“商品房价格上涨潜在压力大”这一判断的主要理由有二。一是成本推动，完善征地拆迁补偿机制、逐步提高征地拆迁补偿标准，房地产开发用地成本和地价的上升，可能进一步推高房地产开发成本。二是需求拉动，来自本地的自用性刚性需求，与浙江民间资本丰裕，投资性需求强劲相结合，与供给有限性构成突出矛盾，如果不加以引导与控制，将拉动房价进一步上升。

“Commodity house prices potential pressure”The main reason for this judgment has two。One is the cost to promote，Improve requisition to tear open change compensation mechanism、Whose house is to gradually improve the compensation standard，For real estate development costs and land price to rise，May further push the high cost of real estate development。2 it is demand，From the local use sex rigid demand，Zhejiang province and abundant folk capital，The investment demand combined，The limitation of supply and a prominent contradictions，If do not try to lead and control，House prices will pull rise further。

　　据《规划》显示，在上一个五年，主城区商品住房成交均价从2006年初的8750元/平方米上升到2010年的20155.84元/平方米，净增长130.35%，涨幅惊人。但如果供应量有保证，“十二五”期间房价上涨幅度可能还是有限。

According to《planning》shows，In the last five years，City commercial housing in early 2006, the price of 8750 yuan/m2 rose to 2010 years of 20155.84 yuan/square metre，Net growth 130.35%，Or surprising。But if supply is guaranteed，“1025”House price rises during may still limited。

　　据《规划》显示，2006年~2010年，杭州市商品住宅新开工4593.77万平方米。而“十二五”期间杭州市五年开发总规模达4750万~5415万平方米。相比上个五年，商品住宅新开工量增加了156万~821万平方米。

According to《planning》shows，2006 years to 2010 years，Hangzhou new commodity residential house started 45.9377 million square meters。and“1025”Five years of hangzhou city during the total development size of 47.5 million to 54.15 million square meters。Compared with last five years，New KaiGongLiang increases the commodity residential house 1.56 million ~ 8.21 million square meters。

　　虽说有人认为，开工量并不代表实际供应量。实际供应量事实上由开发商根据市场需求弹性控制。但双赢机构总经理章惠芳却认为，即使开发商拖一年，当年的开工量还是拖不过第二年。实际开工量最终还是会体现在供应上。有这样大的供应量保证，“十二五”期间，房价上涨幅度总体上会比较有限。

Although some people think that，KaiGongLiang does not represent the actual supply。The actual supply in fact by the developer according to the market demand elasticity control。But general manager but think ZhangHuiFang win-win institutions，Even if developers tow one year，In those days KaiGongLiang or drag but the second year。The actual KaiGongLiang will ultimately reflected in supply。Have such a large supply of guarantee，“1025”during，House prices have risen by general will are more limited。

保障房供应很大 Ensure the supply room is very large

约为商品住宅的一半 About half of the commodity residential house

　　据《规划》介绍，“十二五”期间，杭州主城区的保障性住房，5年总建设规模达到1390万平方米，约131万套，每年平均为278万平方米。这也意味着，保障性住房的供应量是商品住宅供应量的48%~62%，量是比较大的。

According to《planning》introduction，“1025”during，Hangzhou city of affordable housing，5 years total construction scale up to 13.9 million square meters，About 1.31 million set，Average annual average of 2.78 million square meters。It also means that，The supply of affordable housing is commodity residential house of supply by 48% ~ 62%，Amount is larger。

　　这样的供应量有力保障了中低收入居民的住房问题。《规划》还显示，“十二五”期间，萧山区、余杭区、富阳市、建德市、临安市、桐庐县、淳安县七区县(市)，保障性住房五年总建筑规模达到360万平方米。相比较而言，杭州主城区的保障性住房供应力度更大。

Such a powerful guarantee the supply of housing problems of low-income residents。《planning》Also shows that the，“1025”during，Xiaoshan district、Yuhang district、fuyang、JianDeShi、Lin an city、Tonglu county、ChunAnXian seven area county(city)，Affordable housing five years the total construction scale up to 3.6 million square meters。compared，Hangzhou city of affordable housing supply more strength。

　　值得关注的是，《规划》还有个振奋人心的目标：到2015年，杭州将实现小区物业服务全覆盖。30%的销售住宅实现一次性装修；在主城区，这一比例更要达到60%。目前杭州房地产开发的工业化水平普遍不高，全装修住宅比重偏低，到2015年会有显著改变。

There is concern，《planning》And there is also a exciting goal：By 2015，Hangzhou will realize residential property services covering all。30% of the sales residential realize one-time decoration；In the urban，The proportion is more should reach 60%。At present the real estate development of hangzhou industrialized level is high，The house decorate relatively low proportion，In 2015 a significant change。