楼市已经回暖了吗 Housing has warmed

　　“2012不买房，2013悔断肠”。随着这种戏谑的口号被网友竞相传播，“史上最严”的房地产调控似乎又到了一个十字路口。

“2012 don't buy a house，2013 a man”。As this is the slogan of the net friend to banter spread，“History's most severe”The real estate regulation seems to reached a crossroads。

　　楼市“回暖”的速度也大大超出了人们的预期。

Property market“warmed”Speed also greatly exceeded expectations。

　　在一家事业单位工作的肖先生一直有买房的打算。去年下半年开始，他所关注的北京东边几个项目的房价有所下降。他觉得只要房地产调控政策不放松，房价还会下降，可以继续观望。

In a business work unit has been Mr. Shaw of going to buy a house。Since the second half of last year，His interest in the east of Beijing a few projects house prices fell。He think that as long as the real estate control policy not to relax，Property prices will fall，Can continue to look。

　　但4月份以来，销售人员在电话里告诉他，成交量不断攀升使原本的价格优惠减少了，新一期的项目价格肯定要涨，要赶紧出手。进入5月份，二手房中介更是直截了当地说，现在二手房又开始抢了，房价很快就要大幅反弹。

But since April，Sales personnel in the phone told him，Increasing volume of make originally the preferential price reduced，The new issue of the project price is sure to rise，Best shot。Into may，Secondhand the room intermediary is say straight out，Now secondhand the room began to robbed，House prices will soon rebound sharply。

　　平时工作较忙的肖先生到几个售楼处和中介门店一看，热闹的场面顿时让他有点发慌。“看这架势，房价好像压不住了。”“我原先看中的团结湖某小区37平方米的去年105万，5月底时再去，要价120万。”

Work at ordinary times is busy Mr. Shaw to several sales offices and intermediary store a look，Busy scene immediately makes him a bit to panic。“Look at this posture，House prices as if pressure not to live。”“I had the eyes of a district TuanJieHu 37 of the 1.05 million square meters last year，5 at the end of the month to，Asked for 1.2 million。”

　　此前，肖先生还去看了几个双井的二手房，发现涨价也较厉害，“前些天在百环家园看房的时候，还有好些2.2万元/平方米上下的，现在少说也是2.3万元/平方米。”

after，Mr. Shaw still to see a few double well secondhand the room，Price is more severe found，“The other day in the ring when checking their homes，Still have many 22000 yuan/square metre of the up and down，Now say is also less 23000 yuan/square metre。”

　　根据北京市住建委官网的统计，截至6月上旬，北京76个新开盘项目中有21个年内成交均价出现一定程度上涨，占比约为28%。21个价格上浮的项目中，涨幅5%以上的有9个。

According to Beijing's official website construction of live statistics，By early June，Beijing 76 new open quotation project have 21 years the price rise in a certain degree，Accounting for about 28% than。21 price increases in the project，Or more than 5% of the nine。

　　不仅是北京，此前成交量低迷的一线城市，5月住宅市场交易量均大幅反弹。

Is not only the Beijing，After a line of the downturn, the volume of city，May the housing market volume are rebound sharply。

　　国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，无论是销售面积还是销售额，均出现“止跌回升”。1—5月份，全国商品房销售面积约2.9亿平方米，同比下降12.4%，降幅比前4月缩小1个百分点。商品房销售额1.7万亿元，同比下降9.1%，降幅缩小2.7个百分点。

The national bureau of statistics released the latest figures show，Whether selling area or sales，All appear“Rebounded reason”。1-may，The national commodity house sales area of about 290 million square meters，12.4% year-on-year drop，By April than before down to 1%。Commodity house sales of 1.7 trillion yuan，9.1% year-on-year drop，Drop down to 2.7%。

　　中国房地产指数研究院近日发布的6月“百城价格指数”也显示，2012年6月，全国100个城市（新建）住宅平均价格为8688元/平米，环比5月的8684元/平米上涨了0.05%，结束自2011年9月以来的连续9个月环比下跌的态势。

China real estate index academy of) recently released on June“Hundred cities price index”Also showed，June 2012，The country's 100 city（new）Residential average price is 8688 yuan/m2，Annulus comparing May 8684 yuan/m2 rose 0.05%，End since September 2011 nine consecutive y/y falling trend。

　　

逆市涨价的真相 The truth of the inverse price

　　一时间，各地房价止跌回涨上涨被媒体称为“红六月”，楼市是否真的转暖？

time，House prices rose by around HuiZhang reason media called“Red June”，Housing is not really warmed up？

　　亚豪机构副总经理任启鑫分析认为，北京房价均价6月上涨，主要是因为高端项目集中成交推高了房价。“进入7月，房企以价换量需求不那么迫切，量的回升不排除房企对高利润的追求。但限购未解除，购房人的数量未有大的改变，房价大幅上涨的动力不足。”

The house deputy general manager RenQiXin analyzed that institution，Beijing, June rising house prices all valence，Mainly because high-end projects focus on clinch a deal is pushing up the prices。“Into July，Room to change the price of high demand is so urgent，The quantity does not rise out vulnerable to the pursuit of highly profitable room。But 限购 not lifted，The number of the person that buy a house no big change，The power shortage in property prices。”

　　住建部相关负责人认为，楼市成交量之所以明显回升，主要的原因在于开发商顺应了市场变化，打折促销、以价换量的力度加大了，再加上商业银行放贷速度加快和利率逐步回归，释放了部分住房的需求。

Live JianBu relevant officials think，Property market turnover is obvious to bounce back，The main reason is that the developers to market changes，Discounts and promotions、To change the price of intensified，Plus commercial bank lending speed and interest rates stepwise regression，Releasing some housing needs。

　　“从我们的调研看，成交量有两个明显特点，一是自住性购房成为主流，不少项目首次购房比重超过70%；二是部分降价促销力度比较大。”该负责人表示，这应该是市场回归正常的表现。

“From our research look，Volume has two distinct characteristics，One is the self living sex buys a house become mainstream，Many project was the first to purchase the proportion of more than 70%；2 it is part of the efforts to depreciate sales promotion is larger。”The official said，This should be the market back to normal performance。

　　中央财经大学金融管理学院副教授蔡如海接受记者采访时认为，当前的房地产市场属于阶段性反弹，一是开发商大幅度降低住房销售价格，刺激了住房需求；二是今年以来，不少地方政府开始出台了一系列措施刺激楼市，加上银行存款准备金率和利率的下调，让人感觉货币政策在放松，使得观望的购房者选择了入市。

The central university of finance and economics financial management associate professor at college of CAI such as the sea when accepting a reporter to interview think，The current real estate market belongs to stage rebound，One is greatly decreased sales price of housing developers，To stimulate the housing needs；2 it is since this year，Many local governments have begun to issued a series of measures to stimulate the property market，And bank deposit reserve rate and interest rate cut，Let a person feel the monetary policy in relaxation，Make wait-and-see homebuyers chose the market。

　　中国社科院金融所研究员易宪容接受记者采访时说，当前一些地方房价上涨，很大程度上是地方政府某些政策误导影响了市场预期的结果。只要差别化住房信贷政策不改，房价想快速飙升是不可能的。

China academy of the financial YiXianRong told reporters，Some current local prices rise，To a great extent on the local government some misguided policies affect the market the expected results。As long as the differentiation housing credit policy don't change，House prices soaring want to quickly is impossible。

　　他说，仔细分析近十年来的房价飙升，很大程度上是信贷大规模扩张的结果。如从1998年至2002年，银行信贷增加量是6.7万亿元，但2003年至2007年，银行信贷增加量达到14.7万亿元，是前五年的2.2倍。而2008年至2011年，银行信贷增加了28.8万亿元，这四年的信贷额是1998年至2002年期间的4.3倍。如果以年均计算，这四年是1998年度年均的近7倍多。“当大量银行信贷来追逐同样多的住房时，房价的快速上涨就是必然的了。”

He said，Careful analysis for the past decade soaring house prices，To a large extent is the result of credit large expansion。As from 1998 to 2002，Bank credit amount is 6.7 trillion yuan，But in 2003 to 2007，Bank credit amount to 14.7 trillion yuan，Is 2.2 times of the first five years。And in 2008 to 2011，Bank credit added up to 28.8 trillion yuan，The four years is use during 1998 and 2002, 4.3 times。If, on average, calculation，The four years of the 1998 annual average is nearly seven times more。“When a large bank credit to pursue the same when housing，A rapid rise in house prices is inevitable。”

　　中国房地产学会副会长陈国强表示，楼盘涨价只是局部区域的个别项目，而且基本都是前期销售不错的楼盘，现在出现涨价也属正常。但是价格上涨之后，房子是否好卖还不得而知。

China real estate society vice-chairman Chen guoqiang said，Price of estate is local area individual project，And basic it is early sales good estate，Now there is a normal price also。But after prices，The house is good sell is still unknown。

　　他认为，开发商并不具备普遍涨价的条件，一方面住房的库存量还很大，后续供应也比较充足；另外，部分开发商依然面临资金链紧张的压力，高负债的情况没有根本扭转。

He thinks，Developers don't have common prices conditions，On the one hand the inventory of housing is very big still，Subsequent supply is adequate；In addition，Some developers still face capital chain tension of pressure，The high debt without a fundamental change。

　　

利益各方博弈加剧 Interest parties game intensified

　　涨价的动力不足，楼市缘何逆市涨价？

Prices underpowered，Why the property market price inverse？

　　蔡如海认为，目前调控正处于关键时期，调控所涉及的利益各方之间的博弈持续深化。今年上半年整体经济增长放缓的态势令房价有了放松的预期。

CAI such as sea think，Current control is in the key period，Control the interests of all parties involved in the game between continue to deepen。In the first half of this year the overall economic growth slowed the situation to the expectations of the housing price to relax。

　　尽管今年前5个月住房和城乡建设部已经不止一次表态称“坚持房地产宏观调控不动摇”，但放松调控的声音并未因此消失。

Although the first five months of this year housing and rural construction has more than a statement said“Insist on real estate macro-control not be moved”，But relax regulation voice did not so disappear。

　　前些天，“发改委将松绑房地产”、“央行放松个人住房贷款”等新闻风靡各大网站。很快，国家发改委、银监会相继发布辟谣声明。

The other day，“The national development and reform commission will relax real estate”、“The central bank to relax personal housing loan”The big news popular web site。soon，The national development and reform commission、One rumor statement issued by the CBRC。

　　实际上，一些地方放松调控的冲动从去年下半年开始就已经陆续出现。

In fact，Some places to relax the regulation from the second half of last year to impulse has begun to appear。

　　2011年下半年以来，全国累计已经有超过30个城市出台了不同程度的楼市调控微调政策，但是触及国家政策红线的都被叫停。链家地产市场研究部提供的数据显示，截至今年6月，包括北京、上海、广州等在内的全国20个重点城市土地流拍宗数达到107宗，其规划建筑面积945万平方米，分别较去年同期增加32.1%和21%。

Since the second half of 2011，The national accumulative total already have more than 30 cities issued a different degree of market regulation fine-tuning policy，But national policy of the red line all touch have been stopped。Chain's real estate market research to provide the data show，So far this year June，Including Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou etc in 20 major cities across the country to take several cases of land flow 107 respectively，The planning and construction area of 9.45 million square meters，Compared to the same period last year were increased by 32.1% and 21%。

　　在“稳增长”的形势下，今年6月，央行三年半以来首次宣布降息。7月，央行再次宣布降息。利率调整后，贷款买房的月供将减少，购房者的负担有所减轻。一些开发商也开始大造舆论，甚至逆市涨价。

in“Steady growth”Under the situation of，In June this year，Three and a half years for the first time since the central bank announced to cut interest rates。July，The central bank announced to cut interest rates again。Interest rate adjusted，Loan to buy a house for the month will be reduced，The person that buy a house to ease the burden。Some developers are made to public opinion，Even inverse city rises in price。

　　然而，在中央政府层面，房地产调控政策从来没有丝毫要放松的迹象。

however，At the central government level，Real estate control policy has never any signs of to relax。

　　近期，国务院常务会议提出，要把“稳增长”放在更重要的位置。在经济发展方式尚未根本转变的情况下，人们担心，使“稳增长”快速见效的手段和方式就是刺激楼市。

recent，The standing committee of state council put forward，the“Steady growth”In more important position。In the economic development has not yet fundamental changes to the way the case，People worried about，make“Steady growth”Fast effective of the means and ways to stimulate the property market is。

　　“限购政策短时间内不会放开。”住建部政策研究中心副主任王珏林日前表示，自调控以来，限购始终未松动过并且也不会松动。

“限购 policy won't let go in short time。”Live JianBu policy research center, deputy director of the WangJueLin said yesterday，Since the regulation，限购 has not been loose and also not loose。

　　7月7日，温家宝总理在江苏省常州市调研时再次表态，称“要毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，促进房价合理回归”。

July 7，Prime minister wen jiabao in changzhou, jiangsu province when research again say，says“Will unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，Promote the rational regression house prices”。

　　知情人士透露，住建部下半年倾向于“强调既有政策”，当中对于核心政策限购的执行层面正在收紧，地方一系列问责工作也在紧急跟进。

People familiar with the，JianBu tend to live in the second half“Emphasize both policy”，For the core of the implementation of the policy 限购 level are tightening，Place a series of accountability are in the emergency follow up。

　　这些表态，无疑是给楼市理性回归打了一针强心剂。

These have，To the property market is undoubtedly the rational regression played a big boost。

　　业内专家表示，中国多地已经进行的政策“微调”，只是从税费减免、购房政策、公积金贷款额度等方面进行“修补“，而执行限购的政策均未松动。

Industry experts say，China has many of the policy“fine-tuning”，Just from tax cuts、Purchase policies、Accumulation fund loans, etc“repair“，And 限购 policy execution were not loose。

　　“只要调控政策不放松，中国楼市降价的大趋势短期内很难逆转，市场形势只是趋于平稳。”蔡如海认为，对楼市影响最大的限购、限贷政策依旧严格执行，预计未来房地产市场上不会出现“量价齐升”的局面。

“As long as the control policy not to relax，China property market a great trend of price cut short term very hard to correct，The market situation is just tend to be stable。”CAI such as sea think，The biggest impact of property market 限购、Limit credit policy still strictly enforced，The expected future real estate market will not appear“JiSheng quantity and price of”situation。