【《财经》(博客,微博)综合报道】 【《financial》(blog,Micro bo)Comprehensive report】

　　据经济参考报报道，中国社会科学院财经战略研究院23日发布《中国住房发展(2012年中)报告》，预警半年后房价存在报复性反弹风险，建议取消对首套房的贷款优惠利率。

According to the economic reference reported，The Chinese academy of social sciences financial strategy research institute released 23,《China's housing development(2012 years)report》，Warning after half a year there house prices rebound reprisal risk，Suggestions to the first suite cancellation preferential interest rate loans。

　　报告称，今年上半年尽管房地产供求仍处在调控目标的区间，但住房供给后续不足，房地产存货压力持续增大，需求反弹过速，成交量已经回暖。尽管住房价格同比下降符合目标，但环比出现反弹，房价走势偏离调控目标；虽然住房金融总体增长稳定，信贷结构合理，但有资金过快增长和违约积聚的隐忧；土地市场量价齐跌过速，存在未来价格反弹的压力。

The report says，In the first half of this year though real estate supply and demand is still in control target of interval，But housing supply inadequate follow-up，Real estate stock continued pressure increase，Needs fast rebound，Volume have warmed。Despite the housing price with year-on-year drop goal，But annulus comparing rebounded，House price movements deviation control target；Although the overall growth of housing financial stability，Credit reasonable structure，But has the capital too fast growth and default accumulation of malaises；The land market price volume together by fall，The future price of existing rebound pressure。

　　中国社会科学院城市与竞争力研究中心主任、“住房问题研究”课题组副组长倪鹏飞表示，上半年市场走势偏离调控目标，主要是宏观政策微调导致的预期调整与市场恐慌引起的，而不是宏观政策微调实际作用导致的，但是这一回涨的变化给下半年的调控增加了复杂性和难度。

The Chinese academy of social sciences city and competitiveness of the research centre、“Housing research”Research NiPengFei deputy team leader said，In the first half the market trends, deviation control target，Main is fine-tuning the expected to macro adjustment and markets panicked，Instead of macroeconomic policy to fine-tune the actual effect，But the HuiZhang changes in the second half of the year to increase the complexity and difficulty of regulation。

　　倪鹏飞表示，下半年，中央的房地产调控将面临诸多复杂的矛盾。由于目前的房地产市场走势不是市场机制内生，而是通过行政高压手段实现，因此基础并不牢固，存在诸多不确定性，包括报复性反弹导致调控功亏一篑风险和资金断裂积聚房地产的金融风险等两大风险。

NiPengFei said，The second half，The central control will face many of the real estate of complex contradiction。Because of the real estate market movements is not market mechanism endogenous，But through the administrative means of high pressure，So the foundations is not strong，There are many uncertainties，Including retaliatory rebound fell to risk and capital to rupture regulation of the financial risk of real estate accumulated two great risk。

　　报告指出，目前住房市场供应相对充分，开发商资金紧张，尚不具备报复性反弹的条件。但是，在经历半年以上的住房吸纳周期，商品房库存消耗到达一定程度后，开发企业上调价格底气将增加，如果没有有效的调控措施，一、二线城市房价有出现快速反弹的风险。

The report points out that，At present the housing market supply relative fully，Developers of funds，Still does not have the resilience of the conditions reprisal。but，After more than half a year housing absorb cycle，Commodity house inventory consumption to a certain degree，Development enterprise to put prices bottom spirit will increase，If no effective measures，a、Second city house prices have appeared fast rebound risk。

　　倪鹏飞建议，完善差别化的金融政策。包括取消“商业银行对(首套房)个人住房贷款利率浮动区间的下限仍为基准利率的0.7倍”的优惠，改为“商业银行对个人住房贷款利率浮动区间的下限为基准利率”，二套房的贷款比基准利率上浮20%。实行商业银行房地产开发贷款自动上浮普通行业贷款0.5个百分点的贷款制度，保障性房地产开发贷款下浮一般行业贷款0.5个百分点的制度。同时，应取消期房预售制度，创新房地产开发融资渠道。

NiPengFei Suggestions，Perfect law disseminating the financial policy。Including cancellation“Commercial Banks to(First suite)Personal housing loan interest rates for the lower limit of the range of floating still benchmark interest rate of 0.7”discount，instead“Commercial Banks to individual housing loan interest rate band for the lower limit of benchmark interest rate”，Two suites of loans than benchmark rates rise 20%。Implement commercial real estate development bank loans to be automatic floatation loan 0.5% of normal business loan system，Support real estate development loans general industry of the past 0.5% loan system。At the same time，Should be cancelled sales to open to booking system，Innovation of real estate development financing channel。