本报记者 唐烨

Our correspondent TangYe

　　“一个城市的住房供应体系是否具有足够的弹性，不仅决定着能否接纳更多有技术的劳动力的流入，更影响平均住房成本的高低。 ”复旦大学住房政策研究中心主任陈杰日前告诉记者，只有提高住房供应能力，才能有效降房价。在土地空间的自然、规划和政策约束下，上海应改变现有的住房发展方式与住房供应模式。

“A city of housing supply system if it has enough flexibility，Not only can accept the decision more technology into the labor force，The more influence the discretion of the average cost of housing。 ”Fudan university housing policy research center director ChenJie has told reporters，Only by improving the housing supply capacity，To be effective drop of house prices。In the land of the space nature、Planning and policy constraints，Shanghai should alter the existing housing development mode and housing supply mode。

　　为了给居民提供更多可支付的住房，过去10多年，上海主要通过大力发展卫星新城镇，在郊区集中建设大型居住区，引导中心城区人口向郊区聚居，同时加大中心城区的旧城改造和拆迁力度，提高中心城区住房建筑容积率，增加中心城区的住房供应能力。这些政策取得了明显的效果：1999年上海中心城区的住房面积占到全市住房存量的58%，但到2010年则下降为34.5%；与此相对应，上海中心城区人口占全市的比重也从1999年的48%下降到2010年的30%。

In order to provide more residents to pay for housing，In the past 10 years，Shanghai mainly by devoting major efforts to developing new satellite towns，In the suburbs concentrate on the construction of large residential area，Guide to the central city population in suburbs，Also increase the city center the urban renewal and the strength，Improve the center city housing building volume rate，Increase of downtown housing supply capacity。These policy made the obvious effect：1999 years of downtown Shanghai housing area accounts for 58% of the stock in the city to housing，But in the year 2010 is down to 34.5%；accordingly，Shanghai city center the percentage of the population of zhuhai's from 48% in 1999 to 30% in 2010。

　　不过，未来旧区改造与新区开发很难继续推动人口的进一步转移。陈杰说，首先，旧区改造与新区开发之间的联动，是过去十几年上海中心城区核心区域人口比重减少和近郊区域人口比重的增加主要的直接诱导因素，产业转移在这个过程中所起的作用并不大，而这个因素在未来可持续性也不大。其次，城市拆迁一方面通过提高容积率增加了住房供应能力，另一方面也给自己制造了巨大的需求缺口有待弥补。上海2000年后拆迁安置型住房需求往往接近同期商品住宅竣工量的一半。而且，中心城区旧城改造时往往偏好拆除住宅改为经济收益更高的商业和办公楼，这也限制了通过旧区改造带来住房供应能力增加的空间。

but，The future shape and the development of the new city old hard to continue to promote the further population transfer。ChenJie said，first，Old renovation and the development of the new city district of the linkage between，Is more than ten years Shanghai city center core area population proportion and suburban area to reduce the increase of the proportion of the main directly induce factors，Industrial transfer in this process, the role of is not great，And the factors in the future sustainability is small。second，The city by raising rates increased volume on one hand the housing supply capacity，On the other hand also to make a huge demand gap remains to be up。Shanghai 2000 years later the allocation housing needs the same period JunGongLiang often close to half of the commodity residential house。and，The city centre urban renewal, often prefer to dismantle house economic benefits of higher business and office building，It also limits the through the old to bring housing supply ability to shape the increase of the space。

　　陈杰认为，在土地空间的自然、规划和政策约束的情况下，上海要坚决走紧凑型城市发展之路，重视土地利用集约化和旧区改造对住房供应增量的综合提升效应。陈杰的研究团队最近建立的数值模拟结果显示，假定2011-2020年建设用地在只能增加120平方公里的约束下，增加新增用地中的住宅比重 （如从目前的比重30%增加到50%）、提高用地集约化（如从目前的平均容积率1.5增加到2.5）、加大旧区改造（2011-2020年实现3000万平方米住房动拆迁的前提下，住房容积率从改造前的1增加到2.5），可以分别在2011-2020年多净增加3600万平方米、3600万平方米和4500万平方米的住房产出能力。三者都实现的情况下，可以在5400万平方米的基础上累计多增加1.41亿平方米的住房产出能力。

ChenJie think，In the land of the space nature、Planning and policy constraints，Shanghai to resolutely go compact urban development way，Pay attention to the land use intensive and old area of housing supply incremental reform the comprehensive promotion effect。ChenJie research team recently established numerical simulation results are shown，Assume that 2011-2020 construction land use in can only increase under the restriction of the 120 square kilometers，Increase the proportion of new residential land （From the current 30% as increased from 50% to）、Improve the intensive land use（If the average volume rate from the current 1.5 increases to 2.5）、Increase the old to shape（2011-2020 years to achieve 30 million square meters of housing DongCaQian premise，Housing volume rate from the transformation of the former 1 increases to 2.5），Could separately in the 2011-2020 year net increase of 36 million square meters、36 million square meters and 45 million square meters of housing output capacity。All three of the realization of the case，Can on the 54 million square meters cumulative increase based on more than 141 million square meters of housing output capacity。

　　此外，陈杰建议，政府还可以通过做以下6点来加大住房供应能力：

In addition，ChenJie Suggestions，The government also can do the following six points to increasing housing supply capacity：

　　第一，加快农村集体建设用地的流转和提高其利用效率。 2009年上海农村集体建设用地约1100平方公里，占全市所有建设用地总量的40%多，与城镇国有建设用地数量相差无几。而上海户籍农民仅有180余万人。释放农村土地潜力势在必行。目前国土资源部已经允许上海试点利用农村集体用地建设公租房，但相关工作还在启动之中。

The first，Speed up the rural collective construction land circulation and improve the utilization efficiency。 2009 Shanghai rural collective construction land use about 1100 square kilometers，All of the construction land more than 40% of the total，And state-owned urban construction land quantity counterparts。And Shanghai census register only 180 farmers more than ten thousand people。Release the rural land potential is imperative。The ministry of land and resources at present has allowed the utilization of rural collective land pilot Shanghai construction and rent，But related work is still in the starting。

　　第二，通过加大产业转移和公共设施的布局调整，而不是过多依赖旧区改造，来引导人口从中心城区向郊区和远郊区的疏散转移。可以采用沿快速交通干线相对集中布置的紧凑式组团布局模式来推进郊区发展。郊区的住房项目可以适当增加容积率，同时用财税手段引导更多小户型住房的供给和需求，以吸纳更多居住人口。

The second，By strengthening the industrial transfer and public facilities of the layout and adjustment，Not relied on the old to shape，To guide the population from the city centre to the suburbs and the outer evacuation transfer。Can use along the rapid traffic trunk lines opposite concentration of layout is compact type group to promote layout model suburban development。Suburban housing project can be appropriately increase volume rate，At the same time use the finance and tax means lead more small family housing supply and demand，To absorb more population。

　　第三，要严格打击开发商囤地和捂盘，大力挖掘闲置土地的潜在供应量。根据报道，截至2010年1月，上海闲置住宅项目用地涉及总建筑面积近4000万平方米。妥善解决好这部分潜在资源，即可以较小的成本创造较多的住房供应能力。

The third，Strictly according to blow and wu plate developers，Vigorously mining potential supply the idle land。According to the report，By January 2010，Shanghai idle land for residential projects involving a total construction area of nearly 40 million square meters。Properly solve this part of the potential resources，That can be smaller cost create more housing supply capacity。

　　第四，充分利用城市地下空间资源，将是拓展住房增长新空间的重要途径。可借鉴东京、纽约、巴黎等国际大城市开发地下空间的经验，通过统筹规划，将部分公共活动空间和基础设施，如轨道交通、商业设施等转移地下，减少对地面空间资源的占用，将节约出的土地资源优先用于住宅建设开发。

The fourth，Make full use of urban underground space resource，Will expand housing growth is an important way of new space。Can draw lessons from Tokyo、New York、Paris and other international city development of underground space experience，Through the overall planning，Part of the public space and infrastructure，Such as rail transit、The commercial facilities, such as metastatic underground，Reduce the occupation of the resource of the ground space，Will save the land resource first used for residential construction and development。

　　第五，积极推进工业园区产业结构调整升级，将其中部分低效、闲置或劣势产业清退而释放的工业用地通过土地整理，有条件、分阶段地转化为住宅用地，再通过政府主导建设公共租赁房或企业自建职工宿舍等多种方式，充分盘活存量土地资源和优化用地结构，挖掘住房供应潜力。

The fifth，Actively promote industrial park industrial structure adjustment to upgrade，Will some of the inefficient、Idle or disadvantages to repel the release and industry industrial land through the land consolidation，conditional、Stage transformed into housing land，Again through the government leading the building of public rental room or enterprise self-built worker dormitory and so on many kinds of ways，Fully revitalize the stock land resources and optimize the land use structure，Mining housing supply potential。

　　第六，大力发展以公租房为主体、货币化住房补贴为主要辅助手段的住房保障体系，规范租赁市场，降低城市中低收入居民、新毕业大学生和新移民的居住成本。同时坚持抑制和打击房地产投机，稳定市场需求预期。

The sixth，Develop and rent for the subject、Money for main auxiliary means housing subsidies of housing guarantee system，Regulating the market，Lower middle-income residents in the city、New graduated students and new immigrants living costs。At the same time insisted inhibition and combat property speculation，Stable market expectations。