2012年上半年，南京楼市成交量达到31132套，比去年同期上涨了6成多。与此同时，历经调控的市场开始有楼盘微幅提高房价。中央连续强调调控不放松，地王却重出江湖。是陷阱还是转机？是触底的反弹还是短暂的回暖？楼市总是迷雾重生。【直播：陷阱？转机？2012南京楼市务实高端论坛】

In the first half of 2012，Nanjing property market turnover reached 31132 sets，Rose more than the same period last year more than six into。At the same time，After the market began to have control of micro and improve the building house prices。The central continuous emphasis on regulation not to relax，But star Sylvester stallone。Is the trap or transfer？Is a touch on the rebound or is it a thaw？Housing is always fog rebirth。【live：trap？connecting？2012 nanjing property market pragmatic high-end BBS】

　　在市场踏在十字路口的特殊时期，365地产家居网联合网尚研究机构特别策划“陷阱？转机？2012年南京楼市务实高端论坛”，从南京楼市最权威、真实数据出发，点评上半年楼市风云，在数据研究的基础之上，探讨下半年的走势。网尚研究机构总经理、江苏省房协房地产研究所所长李智在现场发表主题演讲，并对已购房客户以及被限购客户需求的变化进行了深入分析。

In the market on the crossroads of the special period，365 real estate home JuWang joint nets is still research institutions special planning“trap？connecting？2012 years nanjing property market pragmatic high-end BBS”，The most authoritative from nanjing property market、Real data of，In the first half and comments on property market，On the basis of research data，Discusses the trend of the second half。Nets is general manager of research institutions、The real estate association of jiangsu province, director li zhi room in the lecture published，And the customers and be 限购 purchase has been changing needs of the customer analysis。

　　今天李智演讲的题目是“限购和限贷下购房趋势的变化研究”。主要分为四个内容，第一个内容是问题的提出，为什么要谈这个问题，第二个是已经购房的客户需求的变化，主要是通过这几天发展的变化情况。第三就是被限购的客户需求变化的趋势是什么样的，第四个是几个建议。

Today's topic is li zhi“限购 and limit the trend of loan buys a room to change study”。Mainly divided into four content，The first problem is put forward the contents，Why to want to talk about this problem，The second is already buying changing needs of the customer，Mainly through these days the change of development。The third is to be 限购 of customer demand change trend is what kind of，The fourth one is several Suggestions。

　　问题的提出，我们看到楼市调控就是对购房客户的精神打击。我们看到正常的市场是金字塔的，打击的第一步就是对现在进行打击，把这块挖掉了。打击的第二步进行限购的打击，把首次置业的，外地的以及改善的挖掉了，第三个高端客户不能购房，所以把这块全都打击掉了。

The problem put forward，We see property market regulation is to buying a house customer shock。We see the normal market is the pyramids，The first step is to blow to strike now，The cut pieces。The second step 限购 blow for blow，The first-time home buyers，The field of and improvement of cut pieces，The third high-end customers can't the house，So the blow all off。

　　打击从去年年底开始对税制进行优惠，就是贷款的优惠，所以调控是对客户的精神打击。我们看到调控以来成交的情况是这样的，第一次进行限购的时候效果不好，第二次进行限购效果比较好，去年成交量基本维持低谷。到年底的时候调控提出来税制优惠，所以今年的成交量出现反弹。我们得出结论，精神打击客户就是抓住了开发商的软肋，上半年销售量超过了预期，与其说开发商的营销政策胜利，不如说是政府精神打击的胜利。这是刘谦玩的魔术，我们看到限购限贷像这块黑布一样，把开发商和老百姓分开，被限购的客户在想什么我们不知道，第二个几年之后这个黑布拉开了，会不会出现亲人相见不相识的悲惨情况，几年后发现开发商找的客户，客户不认识你，你也不认识客户了。

From the end of last year began to blow for preferential tax system，Is the preferential loans，So regulation is to the customer shock。We see regulation clinch a deal is that since，The first time when 限购 result is bad，The second time 限购 effect is good，Last year, the volume of basic maintain troughs。To the end of the year when regulation out preferential tax system，So this year in the volume of sales rebounded。We draw the conclusion，Shock customer is caught the soft rib of developers，Sold more than expected during the first half，Not so much the developers marketing policy victory，As a government shock victory。This is liu qian play of magic，We see 限购 limit credit the same as black cloth，The developers and common people apart，Be 限购 customers we don't know what's going on，The second after a few years this cloth pulled open，There will be meet strangers relatives of the sad case，A few years later found developers looking for customers，Customers don't know you，You also don't know customer。

　　所以需求的变化研究成为必须提前考虑的问题，这里面分成两块，第一块是市场自然发展，客群本身的发展变化，就是已购房的客户发生了哪些变化。第二个是随着政策的出台，现在限购限贷放松以后，原来被限购的客群发生了哪些变化。

So the change of demand research become must think ahead，It is divided into two，The first one is the natural development of the market，The development and change of the customers to itself，Is already buying what are the changes customer。The second is along with the promulgation of the policy，Now 限购 limit credit relax after，The original was 限购 customers of what are the changes。

　　我们有三个假设前提，第一个是后期的市场发展，投资投机所占的比例一直比较小，这是我们365地产家居网统计的，从今年来看投资投机份额比较少，最高只有6%，我们坚信政府说话是算数的，打击投资投机是持续的，这个市场占的比较小的。第二个假设房产税征收是时间问题，不管是明年、后年还是三年之后收，但是它肯定是要收的，这是一个假设。它导致的结果是什么，使得人们观念会发生，住好房子，住大房子要多交税。也就是经过五年十年之后，使得老百姓都感觉到住好房子，住大房子是要多交钱的，这个里面应该就是中国的政策是逐步增强的。第三个假设是替代政策出台后限购限贷被放松。就是限购限贷肯定要被取消，只是一个时间问题。我们做一个推断，预计最快的时间是2013年底甚至2014年才会把限购限贷取消，这样从调控算起历时四年，这是三个假设前提。

We have three assumptions，The first one is the period of market development，The proportion of investment speculation has been relatively small，This is our home JuWang statistics 365 real estate，From this year to see speculative investment share is less，Most 6%，We firmly believe that the government is talking of the count，Speculation is a blow for investment，The market for small。The second assumption that house property tax is collected is a matter of time，Whether the next year、Three years after the same or charge，But it sure is to collect，This is a hypothesis。It is the result of??????，That makes people idea will happen，Live good house，Live big house to pay tax。Also is after five years after ten years，Makes people feel that live good house，Live big house is to make money，The inside of the policy is the Chinese is gradually increases。A third assumption is alternative policies 限购 loans were relaxed after the limit。限购 credit limit is sure to be cancelled，Just a question of time。We do a inference，The fastest time is expected by the end of 2013 or even 2014 years before the 限购 credit limit will be cancelled，So, from the regulation, after four years count，This is three assumptions。

　　这是我们现在的情况，我们经济GDP下滑的很厉害，金融打击的效果在打折扣，很多开发商在想GDP下滑了，政府会放松等等，但是我们要知道政策总体方向转型升级是不变的，它有可能在这块摇摆，因为经济下滑，房地产放一放，然后经济上来之后再对房地产进行调控，方向应该是不变的。（365地产家居网 张明钊）

This is our current condition，Our economic decline of GDP is very severe，The effect of the financial hit in the discount，Many developers want to GDP slide，The government will relax and so on，But we want to know the policy transformation and upgrading of the overall direction is constant，It might be in the swing，Because economic downturn，Real estate put a put，And then came up again to real estate after economic control，Direction should be constant。（365 real estate home JuWang ZhangMingZhao）