中国房地产价格是否有泡沫，这不但关系政府的政策，也关系人们购房的决策，是大家都很关切的大问题。本文论述中国房地产大致没有泡沫，但有不少问题，并提出解决这些问题的一些方法。

China real estate prices whether there is a bubble，This not only relations of the policy of the government，Also people buying decision relationship，Is everyone is concerned big problem。This paper discusses China real estate roughly no bubble，But there are a lot of problems，And puts forward some methods to solve these problems。

　　过去二十年来，中国城市房地产价格增加了很多倍，但价格增加很多未必是泡沫，因为可能有实质的因素支持其增加。这些因素有需求方面的，包括人口增加、城市化、家庭数目增加、人均收入增加等；也有供给方面的，包括土地供应的限制。

In the past 20 years，China's urban property prices have increased a lot of times，But the price increase is not necessarily a lot of foam，Because of the factors may have substantial increases its support。These factors are in need，Including population increased、urbanization、Family is the growing number of、Per capita income increase, etc；Also has the supply，Including land supply restrictions。

　　约三年前，笔者参加一个讨论房地产价格泡沫的会议，主讲者认为有泡沫。他定义房价泡沫的衡量为房价与人均收入之比。但他的房价有泡沫的结论，只是根据房价从1988年以来上涨很多。笔者问他，“从1988年以来，人均收入上涨是否比房价上涨快？”他说，“那当然是人均收入上涨快。”笔者再问，“如果现在房价有泡沫，根据你对房价泡沫的衡量，1988年时，房价的泡沫不是更大吗？为什么到现在还没有爆？”他无言以对。

About three years ago，The author discussed in a real estate price bubbles in the meeting，Speakers think with foam。He defined the measure of prices for house price and bubble of per capita income than。But his house prices with foam conclusion，Is according to house prices from rising a lot since 1988。The author asked him，“Since 1988，Per capita income rising house prices are rising faster than？”He said，“Of course that is per capita income rose quickly。”Ask the author，“If the housing price bubble now，According to your house prices the measure of foam，In 1988，Bubble is not more of the price of the house？Why haven't explosion？”He doctored。

　　当然，还没有爆未必没有泡沫。不过，我们至少必须检讨泡沫论的依据。

Of course，Still no critical not without bubble。but，We must be at least bubble argument basis for review。

　　市场价格上涨，一般是因为需求大于供给。不过，如果需求主要是由不可持续的投机性动机造成，也未必没有泡沫。笔者认为，中国房地产的情形是，需求主要为实质性的消费与投资需求，虽然也有一些投机性需求。(绝大多数投资都带有一些投机的因素。)因此，笔者认为，即使有泡沫，也不是大泡沫。

Market prices，General because demand greater than supply。but，If the demands are the main cause of unsustainable speculative motivation，Also not without bubble。The author thinks that，China real estate situation is，The main demand for substantial consumption and investment demand，Although some speculative demand。(Most of the investment with some speculative factors。)so，The author thinks that，Even with foam，Also not big bubble。

　　中国的自然人口增长率虽然从1987年的高峰大量下降，但总人口还在继续增加。第二，由于以前的城乡隔离政策以及后来的放松，使中国城市化的速度高于其他国家在同样发展阶段时的速度。中国近12年来，城镇人口平均每年增加约1800多万人。这种高速的城市化还会持续约二三十年。第三，由于人口结构与社会因素，中国处于结婚与离婚的高潮时期，而两者都增加家庭数目，因而增加对房子的需求(详见 《经济学家茶座》2012年第一辑，孙文凯《关注中国近年家庭数量与住宅数量不匹配变动》一文)。第四，部分由于人均收入增加，人们会增加对住房的需求，人均住房面积大量增加。根据《中国统计年鉴(2011)》数据，从2007年至2010年三年期间，城镇人均住房建筑面积从30.1平方米增加到31.6平方米。有如孙文凯所述，这说明供给量增加比人口增加快(编注：根据《中国统计年鉴》数据计算，2007年至2010年，城镇人口增长1.1%，而人均住房建筑面积增长5%)。房价增加看来主要是需求的原因，包括人均收入大量增加与家庭小型化。

China's natural population growth rate from its peak in 1987 while a decline，But continue to increase in population。The second，Because of the urban and rural isolation policy before and then relax，Make China urbanization faster than other countries in the same development stage of the speed。China nearly 12 years，The urban population increase every year on average over 1800 people。This kind of high-speed urbanization will last for about two hundred and thirty years。The third，As the population structure and social factors，China is in the climax of the married and divorced period，And both increase the number of family，Thus increasing demand to the house(see 《Economists teahouse》In 2012 the first album，SunWenKai《Focus on China in recent years with the house number family does not match the number change》are)。The fourth，Thanks in part to increased per capita income，People will increase the demand for homes，A large increase in per capita housing area。According to《China statistical yearbook(2011)》data，From 2007 to 2010 between three years，Urban per capita housing construction area of 30.1 square meters from increased to 31.6 square meters。SunWenKai is like this，This shows that supply increase more than population increased quickly(bisio：According to《China statistical yearbook》Data calculation，From 2007 to 2010，The urban population growth rate of 1.1%，Per capita housing construction area of growth of 5%)。House prices seem to increase is mainly the cause of the demand，Includes a large increase in per capita income and family miniaturization。

　　张定胜、成文利与笔者正在撰写一篇分析报酬递增、土地控制与房价关系的文章，其中有一个图表资料，显示中国GDP增长率从1993年到2008年，每年都远大于(有两年约相等)房价的增长率(两者都根据名义变量或当年价格计算)。从2008年以后，虽然有一段时期房价上涨可能更快，但从2008年至2012年这整段时期看，依然是GDP增加比较快。1993年至2012年整段时期，即使扣除人口的增加，人均收入的增加也比房价多。

ZhangDingSheng、ChengWenLi and the author is writing an article analyzes increasing return、Land control and the relationship between house prices，One of the chart material，That Chinese GDP growth from 1993 to 2008，Every year are far larger than(There are two years about equal)House price growth(Both the name according to the variable or current prices)。From 2008 years later，Although a period may be faster rising housing prices，But from 2008 to 2012 this whole period look，Is still increasing GDP is faster。From 1993 to 2012 the whole period，Even after paying the increase of population，Per capita income increase more than house prices。

　　那些自认为收入增加远低于房价增加的读者，可能大骂说，这些数据肯定有问题，但未必有大问题。很多人哭诉说“收入增加一倍，房价增加两三倍”，但这多数是根据某些大城市的中心地段得出的结论。这些地段的房价肯定会随城市人口与经济增长而大量增加，也多数会比人均收入增加得快很多。然而，不可能也不需要人人都住中心地段，就像不可能也不需要人人当总理。我们的数据是全国的平均数据，应该没有大错。

Those who think that income increase is far lower than the house price increase in the reader，May be cursed said，These data have a problem for certain，But may not have big problems。A lot of people crying said“Income doubled，House prices increase two or three times”，But the most is the center of some big cities, according to the conclusion of the area。The section of house prices will certainly with the urban population and economic growth and increase a lot，Also most than per capita income increase a lot faster。however，Don't may not need everybody lives center section，Like not may not need to everyone when prime minister。Our data is the national average data，Should do not have a big mistake。

　　即使只看大城市，根据厦门大学任宇、袁宇菲与熊聪的一篇有理论分析又有数据支持的英文文章《House Price Bubbles in China》(编注：《中国房地产价格泡沫研究》，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院2010年10月工作论文，已提交给《China Economic Review》)的研究，从1999年到2009年，中国35个大城市的GDP增加到超过原来的四倍，而房价只增加到原来的三倍，其结论为：中国房子的回报不满足泡沫的必要条件，把中国房价的高速增长归咎于增长泡沫是不合适的。换句话说，把高房价归咎于由泡沫膨胀造成人们为了将来资本得利的机会主义购买是有误导性的。

Even if only see big cities，According to RenYu xiamen university、YuanYuFei and XiongCong one have theoretical analysis and data support the English articles《House Price Bubbles》(bisio：《China real estate price bubbles》，Xiamen university al economic institute in October 2010 working paper，Has been submitted to the《China Economic Review》)research，From 1999 to 2009，China's 35 cities GDP increased to more than the original four times，And house prices rose by only three times to the original，The conclusion is：China's house returns don't meet the necessary conditions of foam，The rapid growth of the blame on China's house price growth bubble is not appropriate。In other words，The high prices by the foam expands cause people blamed for future capital gain opportunism buy is misleading。

　　还有，中国家庭负债率很小，房产抵押借债的部分，只占房产价值的约三分之一。这一方面说明房价上涨多数不是由虚空的因素所造成；另一方面表示，即使房价有相当大的调整，对整个经济的影响也会比较小，不会出现金融大危机与房价的大崩盘。

and，China family leverage is small，Part of the mortgage debt，Accounts for only of the property value about a third。On the one hand, that most not rising house prices by vanity factors have caused；On the other hand said，Even if house prices have considerable adjustment，To the economic impact would be small，The financial crisis will not appear with house prices collapse。

　　中国房地产虽然没有泡沫，至少没有大泡沫，但有不少问题。这里只简要讨论几个比较明显的问题。

China real estate although no bubble，At least not big bubble，But there are a lot of problems。Here only briefly discuss some of the more obvious problems。

　　第一，城市房价虽然没有大泡沫，但很多市民感到买房难，买了房子成为房奴的压力显然是存在且严重的。然而，这主要并非房价泡沫造成，而是收入分配很不平均使然。少数高收入者的消费与投资购买能力使房价上涨，增加中等与低收入者的购房负担。虽然这可能是房价的最重要问题，但收入分配不均问题，主要不是房地产本身造成的，牵涉的问题又多，这里不能够详细讨论。

The first，Although there is no big city house price bubbles，But a lot of citizens feel difficult to buy a house，Bought house become mortgage slave pressure is clearly exist and serious。however，This major is not house prices caused by foam，But the income distribution is not due to the average。A few high earners of consumption and investment to buy house prices that ability，Increase the medium and low income housing burden。Although this is probably the most important issues of the price of the house，But uneven distribution of income，Main not real estate itself causes，The problems involved more again，Here can't detailed discussion。

　　第二，可以在城市及附近建房子的土地，受到自然与人为的限制。人为的限制包括农地不能够自由用来建房子出售，总农地不得少于18亿亩的硬性规定。这是违反市场规律与经济效率的。靠近城市的农地，用来建房子的价值比用作农地要大得多，如果没有重大的环保等问题，应该由市场来自动调节，不必由政府呆板规定。粮食安全可以由农业生产力的提高来维护，加上用国际贸易来调节，没有问题。澳大利亚与很多其他国家都很愿意卖农产品(5.15,0.00,0.00%)给中国，而且澳大利亚生产的农产品又完全没有食品安全的问题。放松农地的限制，增加可以建房子的土地供应，就可部分减低房价增长速度。

The second，Can the city and build a house near the land，By natural and artificial limit。Artificial limit including farmland could not free to build a house for sale，Total land shall not be less than 1.8 billion acres of compulsory。This was a violation of market rules and economic efficiency。Near the city of farmland，Used to build the value of the house than used as farmland，If no major environmental problems，Should be in the market automatic adjustment，Need not by government regulations and inflexible。Food safety can be made by the improvement of agricultural productive to maintenance，Add in the international trade to adjust，No problem。Australia and many other countries are willing to sell agricultural products(5.15,0.00,0.00%)To China，And the production of agricultural products and Australia no food safety problems。Relax the limits of the land，You can build the house increase land supply，Can reduce the growth rate of house prices。

　　第三，房子空置率很高，造成很大的浪费。这一方面是上述收入分配不均造成的，因为有钱人买房子，比较不担心空置的损失。但这不是最重要的。如果能够增加净收入，为什么不要呢？很多房东担心新房子被房客弄得肮脏与破烂不堪，需要重新装修，得不偿失。这一方面是由于法治效率的低下，另一方面大概是执法过程中对房客的偏护导致的。很多人认为房东多数是有钱人，房客多数是穷人，因而袒护房客。但长期而言，这使房东要求更高的房租或干脆不出租，对房东与房客都不利，是一种巨大的社会浪费。这也是笔者的“一元就是一元”原则的具体例子。即使要帮助穷人，也应该在总体分配政策上来进行，而在具体措施上，应该以效率挂帅，因为这样会使整个社会所有人群都得利，详见笔者的《从诺奖得主到凡夫俗子的经济学谬误》一书的有关论述。

The third，House vacancy rate is very high，Do a lot of waste。On the one hand, the uneven distribution of income is responsible，For rich people to buy a house，Less concerned about the vacancy of the loss。But this is not the most important。If can increase net income，Why not?？Many landlords worried that the new house was tenants make dirty and rags，Needs redecorating，The loss outweights the gain。This was partly due to the rule of the efficiency is low，On the other hand is probably in the process of law enforcement to tenants in the wrong。Many people think that the landlord most is a rich man，The tenant most poor，And the tenants defended the。But in the long run，This makes the landlord demand higher rent or simply don't rent，Of the landlord and the tenant is adverse，Is a huge waste of society。This is also the author“One yuan is one yuan”Principle concrete example。Even to help the poor，Should also in the general distribution policy came up，And in the concrete measures，Should trengthen the efficiency，Because that will make the whole social all the crowd advantage，See the author's《From laureates to rural economics falsehood》The book about discusses。

　　如果能够提高法治并不偏不倚地维护正义与效率，使房东愿意把空置的房子出租，会使租金下跌，比较多人可以获得比较低房租的住房，减少自己购房的意愿，间接也会使房价增加的速度减缓。

If can improve the law impartially maintain justice and efficiency，Make the landlord willing to put the empty house for rent，Can make rent fell，More people can get a low rent housing，Reduce his purchase will，Indirect also can make house prices increased at a slower rate。

　　由于收入增加、城市化、家庭数目增加等因素，可以预期中国城市(尤其是大城市的中心地段)的房价应该会继续上涨。虽不能排除像过去半年多来的短期调整，但长期应该是继续向上的。

Due to increased income、urbanization、The growing number of family, and other factors，Can expect Chinese city(Especially the big city centre area)House prices should continue to rise。Though not ruled out like the past half a year more than short-term adjustment，But long-term should is to continue to upward。

　　根据陈杰于7月3日在《东方早报(博客,微博)·上海经济评论》上发表的文章分析，上海住房平均建筑面积，离建设部政策研究中心2004年发布的《中国全面小康社会居住目标研究》中提出到2020年城镇人均住房建筑面积的目标还低很多。他的结论是：“不管哪种情景模拟，都预示2020年上海住房供应可能不仅是"小户型、平价房相对不足"的结构性短缺，还很大可能是绝对短缺。”这意味着，上海的房价多数会继续上涨。其他城市应该也是大同小异。笔者于八九年前看好上海的房价，打算在上海买房，甚至看了好多间房子，但后来因为听说上海有土地下陷的问题而不敢买，失去了机会，哈哈！

According to ChenJie on July 3, in《Oriental morning post(blog,Micro bo)· Shanghai economic review》An article posted on analysis，Shanghai housing average building area，From the ministry of construction policy research center released in 2004《China well-off society living target research》Put forward in 2020 per capita town to the goals of housing construction area is much lower。His conclusion is：“No matter what kind of scene simulation，That all the 2020 Shanghai housing supply may not only is"Small family、Parity room insufficient"Structural shortage，Is very big still may be absolutely shortage。”This means that，Shanghai house prices most continue to rise。Other cities should be the same。The eight or nine years ago promising to Shanghai house prices，Going to buy a house in Shanghai，Even look at a lot of house，But later because the land subsidence in Shanghai have heard that the problem to buy，Lost opportunity，Ha ha！

　　短期的情况又如何呢？随着半年多来的房价小量下降，5月份已经略为回涨。著名房价唱空者谢国忠近日论述(《东方财富(300059,股吧)(10.720,0.00,0.00%)网》7月2日)，“中国房地产泡沫已经爆了，回暖是假象”。然而，他在两年多前(2010年4月27日)的搜狐博文中说，“中国的房地产再要创新高是很困难的，因为货币政策毕竟是全世界都在收，整个世界资金环境不会那么宽松。这时候热钱要退潮的可能性很大了。热钱会跑，利息会涨。美国加息这个周期，看上去2012年到百分之四到五的可能性非常大”。

Short-term situation is again how？With more than half a year to house prices decline small，In April was slightly HuiZhang。The famous singing the empty house prices xie recently discussed(《Eastern wealth(300059,Shares it)(10.720,0.00,0.00%)nets》July 2,)，“China real estate bubble has burst，Thaw is illusion”。however，He in more than two years ago(On April 27, 2010)The sohu bowen said，“China's real estate and high innovation is difficult，Because the monetary policy, after all, is in charge all over the world，The whole world money not so comfortable environment。By this time hot money to ebb tide possibility is very large。Hot money will run，Interest rates will rise。Us interest rates this cycle，Look 2012 to four percent to of the possibility is very large”。

　　然而，房价再创新高了，北京新单价地王也出现了。另一方面，美国到现在还没有加息，而且言明会继续维持接近零利率的低息至少到2014年。中国加息后又已经在一个月内接连两次减息。6月份的消费者物价指数同比增长率已经回降到2.2%的低位，环比更是继5月份的减少0.3%后又减少0.6%，生产者价格指数同比更是随5月份的下降1.4%后又下降2.1%。生产者物价指数的下降，应该会使接下来的消费者物价指数增长率继续下跌。看来央行多数会继续减息与采取其他方面的货币放松政策，对房价应该会有正面的作用。

however，House prices hit a record high，Beijing new unit price you also appeared。On the other hand，The United States to have not raising rates，And tell will continue to maintain close to zero lower interest rates until at least 2014。China has already raised interest rates in a month two times on interest rates。The consumer price index in June year-on-year growth rate has gone back to the lows of 2.2%，But in May after the annulus reduced by 0.3% and reduced by 0.6%，Producer price index is up with the decline of 1.4% in May and 2.1% decline。The producer price index drops，Should would make the next consumer price index growth rates continue to fall。The central bank looks to further cuts and take most of the other aspects of the monetary ease policy，To the house should have positive role。

　　(作者系澳大利亚Monash大学经济系教授)

(The author is Monash university professor of Australia)