经过一年多以来的“限购”和“限贷”的调控，中国楼价于今年上半年跌入谷底，目前有逐步企稳回升之势，但不会大幅反弹。

After more than a year since“限购”and“Limit credit”control，Chinese property prices to fall to the floor in the first half of this year，There are gradually stabilising picks up of power，But won't rebound sharply。

　　去年一年的库存挤压以及融资的受限，房企的资金链受到严峻的考验。为加快回笼资金，今年越来越多的房企加入了降价大军。降价楼盘由去年的郊区中低端逐步蔓延到今年的市区中高端，采取降价的房企也由大型标杆房企扩展到本地企业。

Last year a year of inventory extrusion and financing of limited，Room of capital chain enterprises by the acid test。In order to speed up the receivables，This year more and more room to join the army enterprises price。Price of last year's suburbs ZhongDiDuan building gradually spread to the high end in the city this year，Take the room price by large enterprises also extended to local enterprises benchmarking room enterprise。

　　但是，后期房价缺乏继续下降的动力。从市场层面来看，前期价格的下降吸引了前期积压刚需的集中入市，今年3月份以来，市场已逐步呈现回暖态势。

but，House prices continue to fall late lack of power。From market level，The price drop attracted just need to focus on the backlog of entry，Since march this year，The market has gradually reverting to present situation。

　　继“金三银四”后，“红五月”继续红透六月天。据中原监测，6月，全国54个大中城市累计新房销售套数较5月增加10.4%。市场的回暖快速地消化了开发商的库存，并大大缓解了其资金压力，预计房企后期大幅促销推盘的可能性降低。

the“Four establishments”after，“Red may”Continue to red through June day。According to the monitoring，June，The national 54 cities accumulative total sales of new homes is a cycle may increase 10.4%。The market of buoyancy quickly digest the developer's inventory，And the greatly ease the financial pressure，Room late promotion is expected to push a high dish less likely。

　　从政策层面来看，随着利率的下降以及存款准备金率的下调，房贷执行层面的松动已实质展开；全国多个城市政策出现微调。

From a policy level，With interest rates down and the deposit reserve rate cut，Mortgage executive level has on the loose essence；National many urban policy appear fine-tuning。

　　“外紧内松”的政策使购房者的预期产生了较大的变化，刚需购房者纷纷加快入市的步伐。预计地方政府对政策微调的冲动下，房价后期缺乏下降的动力。

“Within the tight pine”The policy of the person that buy a house is expected to produce greater change，Just need to speed up the pace of the person that buy a house in succession entry。The local government is expected to fine-tune the impulse of the policy，House prices falling power of late。

　　然而，房价大幅上涨的时代并不会到来。中央坚持房地产调控的决心依旧，从近期诸多地方政策被叫停以及辟谣等情况可以看出，“限购”、“限贷”等调控基本面短期内难松动。因此，未来市场需求仍以刚需以及改善型需求为主，后期价格将以平稳为主，不会出现大幅的反弹。

however，Property prices will not come of age。Central to the determination of the real estate regulation still remains，From a recent many local policy have been stopped and rumor, etc can be seen，“限购”、“Limit credit”Short-term NaNan loose control such as fundamentals。so，The future market demand has to just need to improve type and demands，Later at a steady price will give priority to，Will not face a backlash。

　　文/中原集团研究中心 研究总监 张海清

Wen/zhongyuan group research center ZhangHaiQing research director