【财经网(博客,微博)专稿】记者 冯青 【Financial nets(blog,Micro bo)ZhuanGao】Reporter FengQing

　　作为北京地产业龙头、北京市国资委重要的上市地产平台，首开股份(600376,股吧)（600376.SH）2012年楼市销售或超预期。

As Beijing real estate leading、Beijing state-owned assets supervision of important listed property platform，First open shares(600376,Shares it)（600376. The SH）2012 market sales or than expected。

　　7月9日，国泰君安（751093.SZ）发布研报指出，未来将看好首开股份下半年在京的拿地前景。在电话里，首开股份董秘王怡向记者透露：“今年下半年公司的拿地计划，主要看宏观经济形势变化、市场发展，公司战略发展以及土地需求等因素。”

July 9,，Cathay Pacific hand（751093 SZ）Research report released said，The future will be the first to the second half valued shares in Beijing to take future。On the phone，First open secret WangYi shares tung has revealed：“The second half of this year the company take plan，Basically see macroeconomic situation changes、Market development，The company strategy development and the land demand, and other factors。”

　　国泰君安看好首开股份的理由包括，由于今年上半年谨慎的投资态度（未出手拿地）以及良好的销售回款，公司具备充裕的现金作为保证，预测超过80亿元；其次，今年上半年，北京土地出让金收入仅为145亿元，仅完成900亿元预计目标的16%，今年下半年，政府加快土地供应是必然趋势。第三，首开股份作为京城最大的保障房建造者，具备多样性的拿地渠道和手段；第四，首开股份作为北京市国资委最重要的上市地产平台，在拿地时具有背景优势。公司将借助市场需求旺盛、稀缺核心区域储备优势奠定高盈利基础。

Cathay Pacific airways valued first open hand reasons include shares，The first half of this year because of the cautious investment attitude（Not to take shots）And good sales r，The company has plenty of cash as a guarantee，Predict more than 8 billion yuan；second，In the first half of this year，Beijing the land grant fee income is 14.5 billion yuan only，Only complete 90 billion yuan is expected to 16% of the target，The second half of this year，The government to speed up the land supply is an inevitable trend。The third，First open as capital shares of the greatest protection room builder，Have the diversity and to channel and means；The fourth，First open, one of the most important sasac shares listed property of the platform，Have a background in to take advantage。The company will use a market demand、Scarce the core region reserves lay foundation high earnings advantage。

　　王怡表示，尽管目前宏观经济不容乐观，包括国家出台限购、央行降息等政策，土地市场希望刚性需求释放加快，同时从目前状况来看，暂时不会有涨价计划。

WangYi said，Despite the current macroeconomic not optimistic，Including the country has issued 限购、The central bank cut interest rates and other policies，The land market demand to speed up the rigid release，At the same time from the current situation，This will not be a price plan。

　　国泰君安指出，在政策风险充分释放后，北京真实需求的复苏是看好首开股份的最大理由。北京作为此轮调整的领头羊，销量低迷及降价等率先发生和完成，长期压制的真实需求在未来相当长时间持续释放具有必然性。北京供地偏低、且保障房挤占商品房用地，未来供应将持续紧张，同时北京的需求极为旺盛，预判供不应求状态将持续。

Cathay Pacific hand points out that，Full release after the risk in the policy，Beijing real demand recovery is bullish on the first of the biggest reason for shares。Beijing as the leader of this round of adjustment，Sales downturn and the occurrence and complete price, etc，The long history of repression in the future real demand for a quite long time continuous release is inevitable。Beijing for the low、And security room occupy commodity house sites，Future supply will continue to nervous，At the same time the demand of Beijing is very strong，The state will continue to supply。

　　据悉，首开股份上半年签约销售收入约为70亿元，已完成2012年140亿元销售计划的50%，2012年销售存在超预期可能。估算公司2012年可售货值将超过310亿元，新推货值超过210亿元，看好2012年全年公司的销售前景。从首开股份目前现有北京的产品结构来看，除了铂郡等少数高端项目，绝大部分项目均定为刚需和首改，预计销售情况将持续火热。

It is reported，In the first half of the first signed sales income shares is about 7 billion yuan，Completed in 2012, 50% of the 14 billion yuan sales plan，Sales in 2012 May exist than expected。In 2012, the company can estimate the value of more than 31 billion yuan，New push to the value of more than 21 billion yuan，In 2012 the annual company good sales prospects。From the first to present shares the product structure of Beijing to see，In addition to a few other high-end projects platinum county，Most of the projects are just as to change and first，Expected sales will continue to fire。

　　国泰君安预计，首开股份的激励方案未来进展加速的可能性较大，若能够出台，将奠定公司的销售、业绩的持续增速底线，看好发展空间。根据预测，2012、2013年的EPS分别为1.30、1.57 元；RNAV 17.2 元，较股价折22%；1 季预收款已锁定全年业绩。首开股份作为北京国资委的重要上市地产平台，看好其未来成长性和整合能力，维持增持，目标价预计为17元。

Cathay Pacific airways is expected to hand，First open the incentive schemes shares are more likely to accelerate future progress，To be able to come on stage，Will lay the company's sales、The performance of the bottom line for growth，Good development space。According to the forecast，2012、2013 years of EPS were 1.30、1.57 yuan；RNAV 17.2 yuan，A share price discount of 22%；Deposit the season 1 has targeted full year results。First open as Beijing the important state-owned assets supervision shares listed property platform，Bullish on its future growth and conformity ability，Keep increasing，Target price for the 17 yuan is expected to。

　　7月9日，首开股份开盘价13.75元，上涨1.08%。

July 9,，First open shares the opening price of 13.75 yuan，Up 1.08%。

　　（证券市场周刊供稿）

（Securities market weekly contributors）