8月2日受从严调控楼市“消息”影响，地产股集体跳水，领跌A股，收盘后地产指数跌2.72%，苏宁环球(000718,股吧)跌停，首开股份(600376,股吧)、招商地产(000024,股吧)、保利地产(600048,股吧)跌幅超9%，重庆实业(000736,股吧)跌幅超7%。

On August 2, by strict control in the sector“news”influence，With property collective diving，Brought down A shares，After the markets closed property index fell 2.72%，Suning universal(000718,Shares it)Drop stop，First open shares(600376,Shares it)、Investment real estate(000024,Shares it)、Poly real estate(600048,Shares it)The 9% decline，Chongqing industrial(000736,Shares it)The 7% decline。

　　当日传出的消息主要有以下几条：“取消预售房制度”；“全面开征房产税”；政治局7月31日召开会议，分析研究上半年经济形势和下半年经济工作，会议明确表示要坚定不移执行房地产调控政策；国务院组成地产督查小组检查楼市宏观调控成效；义乌等地方松绑政策不断被否定等。

On that day the news out of basically has the following a few more：“Cancel opens to booking a room system”；“Comprehensive collecting the house property tax”；On July 31, the political meeting，Analysis in the first half and the second half of the economic situation economic work，The meeting made clear to fostering real estate control policies；The state council of supervision of real estate group checked macroeconomic regulation has property market；Yiwu place constantly to be negative, easing policy。

　　消息有真有传闻，难辨真伪。8年来，调控房价的政策从未见效过，反而是调一次涨一回，调得越“狠”涨得越凶，有人说，这次还会跟以往一样，房价调不下来，能成功地把房地产股调下来。

News there is speculation，It true bogus。Eight years，The policy has never effective control property prices，It is a time for the rose，The more the“malicious”Has risen more fierce，Some say，This will also as ever，The house prices do not come down，Can successfully put the real estate stocks down。

　　为何每次调控房价失效？原因很简单：每次调控都没有抓住根本。造成高房价的原因很多，最重要的原因只有三个：高地价、高税负和高收费、货币超发。至于人工成本和建筑材料涨价与上述三大方面相比可以忽略不计。

Why every time control property prices failure？The reason is very simple：Every time regulation are not grasp。High prices for many reasons caused，The most important reason only three：High price、The high tax burden and high fees、Monetary super hair。As for artificial cost and building materials prices and the three compared with can be neglected。

　　地价有多高？位于北京市海淀区西三环路和西四环路之间的“万柳地块”，于2012年7月10日以26.3亿元的最高上限价格、配建16400平米回购房的条件拍出，刷新了全国住宅类地块的纪录。该“万柳地块”的楼面价约为4.42万元/平米刷新单价地王纪录。所谓楼面价，是指土地总价格除以该土地的允许最大建筑面积，每个土地在获得时，基本都有容积率规定，框定了该土地建筑的最大面积。楼面价表明了该项目在销售时，单位售价中所包含的土地成本。

Land price how high？Located at Beijing's haidian district XiSanHuan road and west between n.“Wanliu plot”，In 2012, July 10, with 2.63 billion yuan price caps、PeiJian 16400 square meters back to purchase conditions make，Refresh the residence kind plot record。the“Wanliu plot”Floor price of about 44200 yuan/m2 refresh unit price you record。The so-called floor price，Refers to the total price divided by the land land allowable maximum floor area，Each land in gain，Basic have capacity rate regulation，The land of building centered exactly the most large area。Floor price shows that the project in sales，The unit price included in the cost of land。

　　笔者曾请一家上市公司副总经理帮忙计算了下“万柳地块”每平米的综合成本，各项税费约2万元，主要包括营业税、土地增值税、企业所得税等，加上建安成本，如果再加上管理费用、财务费用、营销费用等各项费用，每平米成本将超过7万元，如果再加上人工、材料和其他成本，每平米将超过8万元。如果这里的房子每平米以超过10万元卖出，一点都不奇怪。

The author once please a public company deputy general manager for help under the calculation“Wanliu plot”The comprehensive cost per square，Various taxes of about 20000 yuan，Mainly includes business tax、Land value added tax、Enterprise income tax，Plus the fabrication cost，Add to this the management cost、Financial expenses、Marketing expenses, and other expenses，Each square meters will cost more than 70000 dollars，If plus artificial、Materials and other costs，Each square meters will be more than 80000 yuan。If the houses more than 100000 yuan per square meter to sell，I'm not surprised。

　　在各项成本中，地价占55%，各项税费占25%，两者占80%。

In each cost，Land price 55%，Various taxes accounted for 25%，Both 80%。

　　如果各级政府真心想把房价打压下来，就得从根本上解决问题，降低地价和减少涉及房地产的税收。

If the government at all levels really want to put down prices down，Have to go to the root of the problem，Reduce the land price and reduce covers real estate tax。

　　商品房首先是商品，开发商也是商人，是商人总是要赚钱的，没有利润谁去开发？

Commodity house is first goods，Developers also businessman，Businessman always want to make money is，No profit who go to development？

　　8月2日传出的两条消息如果变成事实，那只会让商品房价格进一步上涨，取消预售房制度，意味着减少住房供应，这将直接大幅拉高现房价格；开征任何涉及房地产的税种都会增加购房人的负担而不是开发商。

August 2 came out of the two messages if become true，That will only make commodity house prices rise further，Cancel opens to booking a room system，That means less housing supply，This will direct a house prices push；Collecting the any covers real estate categories of taxes will increase the burden of the person that buy a house not the developers。

　　在现有的政策情况下，降低地价唯一能做的是加大土地供应，集中、大量供应，而不是挤牙膏式的供应，只有供应量足够多，价格才能降下来。

In the existing policy circumstances，Lower price only can do is to increase land supply，concentration、Large supply，Not the type of squeezed on supply，Only supply enough，The price to drop down。

　　而解决地价过高的根本是解决地方政府的土地财政问题。

And solve the fundamental solution is high price of the local government land of financial problems。

　　高房价的另一个根本问题是货币超发，货币供应量增长跟房价是单向正相关的。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者格兰杰认为，房价高低不决定M2余额，但M2余额多少可直接影响房价高低。犹记当年（2005年初）跟同乡律师到北京六里桥三环边看房，那时候房价是每平米6000；现在是30000多，是原来的5倍多。

That high prices of another fundamental problem is that the currency super hair，Money supply growth with house prices is ChanXiangZheng related。Nobel economic prize winner granger think，House prices high and low don't decide to balance the M2，But how much can directly affect the balance of the M2 house prices high and low。Remember that year of（In early 2005）With fellow lawyer to Beijing LiuLiQiao three-ring edge systems，The price is 6000 per square metre；Now is more than 30000，Is that the original 5 times more。

　　根据8月2日央行公布的“货币政策报告”显示，广义货币供应量M2 余额为92.5 万亿元；而2004年底2005年初，广义货币供应量M2余额是25.3万亿元，现在M2是7年前的3.66倍。

According to the August 2 by the central bank“Monetary policy report”shows，M2 balance is 92.5 trillion yuan；By the end of 2004 and early 2005，M2 the balance is 25.3 trillion yuan，Now M2 is 3.66 times of seven years ago。

　　房价和M2齐飞。众所周知，中国普通民众投资渠道狭窄，股市在2007年一飞冲天后更多的时候是萎靡不振；实业越来越难做，到了不偷税无法生存的境界；加之教育、医疗和养老压力巨大，投资房地产几乎是唯一，甚至是被迫的选择。在货币发行过剩后，房价上涨是不难理解的。

House prices and M2 fly together。As is known to all，Ordinary Chinese investment channel is narrow，In 2007, the stock market soared after more of the time be sluggish；The industry has become more and more difficult，To not evade taxes cannot survive border；Education and、Health care and pension of pressure，The investment real estate is almost the only，Even is forced to choose。In the currency issue after the surplus，Rising house prices is easy to understand。

　　回归常识：商品的价格取决于供求关系，以及货币供应量。根据央行提供的数据：上半年，全国房屋新开工面积为9.2 亿平米，同比下降7.1%，第二季度连续3 个月出现同比下降，而第一季度为同比增长0.3%。

Return to common sense：Commodity price depends on supply and demand，And the money supply。According to the central bank to provide the data：In the first half，The new housing construction area is 920 million square meters，7.1% year-on-year drop，The second quarter with three straight month in year-on-year drop，And the first quarter for a year-on-year increase of 0.3%。

　　全国房屋新开工面积大幅减少意味着供应量的减少，M2增速同比增长13.6%，需求不变的情况下，指望房价下降岂不是天方夜谭！

The national housing new commenced area means less of a supply reduced，M2 growth year-on-year growth of 13.6%，Demand under the condition of invariable，Expect falling house prices is not fiction！

　　调控房地产不要将希望寄托在央行身上，如果货币政策收紧，首先难过的是中小企业和制造业，房地产企业并未因此而大面积倒闭；如果货币政策适当宽松，首先得益的就是房地产企业。除非想把房地产整个行业整垮，那么，得需要先将其他行业都整垮。

Regulating the real estate don't will hope in a central bank body，If monetary policy tightening，First is sad small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing industry，Real estate enterprise don't collapse large area；If appropriate loose monetary policy，First of all the real estate enterprise benefit is。Unless the whole industry to real estate ZhengKua，so，Need to place other industries ZhengKua。

　　不降低地价和税费的一切调控房地产措施都是无效的。为确保经济正常增长，M2适度增长是必要的。

Don't reduce the price of all the real estate taxes and regulation measures are invalid。In order to ensure the normal growth economy，M2 moderate growth is necessary。

　　根据央行报告显示，进一步放松货币政策是可能的，降低存款准备金率如箭在弦。

According to the central bank report shows，Further loosening monetary policy is possible，Reduce the deposit reserve rate RuJianZaiXian。

　　（作者为本报编委）

（The author for our newspaper editors）